Top 25 talk

[Mr. Ypsi]

smed,

While Elmhurst, alas, does have some bad early-season losses, I doubt ANYONE in the bottom half of the top 25 has their resume of impressive wins.

[smedindy]

Ypsi - the losses counter balance the wins. You can't extol one without taking the other into account. I'm a big believer in 'the body of work'.

[Pat Coleman]

smed,

While Elmhurst, alas, does have some bad early-season losses, I doubt ANYONE in the bottom half of the top 25 has their resume of impressive wins.

Millikin isn't an early-season loss.

[Mr. Ypsi]

smed,

Agreed, but please note that 4 of their 6 losses are to teams currently ranked in the top 7!  I'm not suggesting they belong above the low 20s or high teens, and such teams are SUPPOSED to lose to top 7 teams.  Find me ANYONE in the bottom half of the top 25 with wins over teams of the IWU and NCC caliber.

Pat,

Millikin is a total enigma - how can a team with their record have wins over both Elmhurst AND NCC (an take IWU to the wire)?  My take is that they are much better than their record, but extremely streaky and currently wracked with injuries.  (Arrgh!  You've gone and forced a Titan to say something good about the Blue!)

[gordonmann]

As well as Augustana has played, I'm not sure they'll pry many No. 1 votes away this week. 

The top three teams won out.  Lawrence held Grinnell to a really low number of points and is still undefeated.  Witt's only loss is to Wooster.  Wooster's only loss is to Baldwin-Wallace. 

Put that next to UW-Stout (Augustana's loss), even if that was a while ago, and that will make it tougher to convince a signficant number of people to switch their top vote.

As for Millikin, enigma or not, they are 9-9.  For all their close games, they are 2-5 since early January.  It doesn't help Elmhurst's cause to be one of those two loses.

[Mr. Ypsi]

As well as Augustana has played, I'm not sure they'll pry many No. 1 votes away this week. 

The top three teams won out.  Lawrence held Grinnell to a really low number of points and is still undefeated.  Witt's only loss is to Wooster.  Wooster's only loss is to Baldwin-Wallace. 

Put that next to UW-Stout (Augustana's loss), even if that was a while ago, and that will make it tougher to convince a signficant number of people to switch their top vote.

As for Millikin, enigma or not, they are 9-9.  For all their close games, they are 2-5 since early January.  It doesn't help Elmhurst's cause to be one of those two loses.

As I said, I don't expect Augie to BE #1, but NO #1 votes would surprise me a bit.  As you noted, the top 3 all held serve, but none had a week NEARLY as impressive as Augie's.

You're correct that Millikin's conference record is 2-5.  But what does it tell you that the 2 wins have been Elmhurst AND NCC (meanwhile being NPU's ONLY two victims) - they ARE an enigma.  Obviously it doesn't HELP Elmhurst to be one of those two victims, but it didn't keep NCC out!

[Pat Coleman]

Voters could also choose to wait, considering No. 1 and No. 2 face off on Saturday. Some No. 1 votes will be up for grabs after that game.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Pat,

Good point!  I hadn't noticed that on the schedule.  I hope your voters have long memories, because Augie's schedule is pretty modest THIS week.

[smedindy]

The question is for me now is IWU ALL that. Sure, they're a fine team, but the struggles of late, and what I saw in C'ville in November, they're not as good as Wooster or Witt and it tells me their first half issues against Wabash weren't a total fluke.

[Gregory Sager]

Lakeland hasn't lost since and is 17-4, they play good defense as all Wisc. schools seem too.

They also run the best motion offense I've seen in the past couple of years. I think that any LMC team will be up against it in the tournament (it remains to be seen how the NAC will fare in March after the merger), but Lakeland may have the best chance any LMC team has had in quite a while of pulling off a major first-round upset.

As I posted on CCIW Chat, I think Elmhurst should make the new poll.  If you're voting for Augustana, IWU, and North Central, I don't know how you could leave Elmhurst off your ballot -- they've lost by 4 and 3 to Augie, defeated IWU, and won at North Central.  I've seen Elmhurst 3 times and I'm positive they're a Top 25 team...interested to see what the voters see on paper.

I agree that Elmhurst is Top 25 caliber in terms of their talent level, but the 'jays have played up to that talent level with less frequency than a lot of other teams. I can only go by what I've seen in this regard; I saw Carnegie Mellon on Friday night, and while I suspect that the Tartans will land at about #17 or #18 in this coming week's poll after their split @ Chicago and Wash U, I have to say that on a neutral court I'd take Elmhurst over CMU. But a voter can't just wave away the fact that Elmhurst has six losses, or that one of them was a woeful home stumble against an iffy Millikin team.

Millikin is a total enigma - how can a team with their record have wins over both Elmhurst AND NCC (an take IWU to the wire)?  My take is that they are much better than their record, but extremely streaky and currently wracked with injuries.  (Arrgh!  You've gone and forced a Titan to say something good about the Blue!)

I don't know if they are "much better than their record", Chuck. They have no good non-conference wins. They have the two big CCIW upsets and the near-upset against Illinois Wesleyan, but they've also lost twice to North Park and were absolutely pasted by Wheaton in a game in which the Big Blue were down by double digits for 35 minutes and were losing by 29 when Wheaton coach Bill Harris called off the dogs. I also don't know if "wracked with injuries" is accurate. They've lost one starter, spot-up shooter Mike Gavic (who was their third or fourth option on offense), to a torn ACL, and a bench player (Byron Graven). Other CCIW teams (NPU and Carthage) have sustained worse in-season losses.

The top three teams won out.  Lawrence held Grinnell to a really low number of points and is still undefeated.  Witt's only loss is to Wooster.  Wooster's only loss is to Baldwin-Wallace. 

Put that next to UW-Stout (Augustana's loss), even if that was a while ago, and that will make it tougher to convince a signficant number of people to switch their top vote.

Why is this a bad loss, Gordon? UW-Stout is 15-4, 8-3 and the co-leader of the WIAC. The Blue Devils beat Augie by four points up in Menomonie, WI. I can see keeping Wooster above Augie based upon their comparative results against UW-Stout  (Wooster beat the Blue Devils by eight in the Wooster gym at the beginning of the season), but Augie's loss was hardly disgraceful.

[John Gleich]

...Put that next to UW-Stout ...

GM,

You imply that the Stout loss was a "worse" loss than Witt's to Woo, Woo to Bald-Wally, and Larry to...

Well, you imply that the Stout loss is better than the first two.

I'm not so sure.  Woo lost to Bald-Wally at home.  That, I believe, is why the voters have placed Witt over Woo, even though Woo beat Witt.  So we've got Witt losing, in OT, at Woo, Witt losing at home, to Bald-Wally, Lawrence losing to noone, and Augie losing at Stout.  You've then got to look at who's been challenged more.

Lawrence has had a few games where they've been challenged... but their strength of schedule doesn't rival Augie's.  One could argue that Larry U wouldn't be undefeated if they played in the CCIW. 

I'm going to go ahead and say that Augie deserves to be placed ahead of COW because their loss was on the road instead of at home... so now it's just Witt vs. Augie. 

Let's look at the losses... Witt, like I said, lost at COW, Augie lost at Stout.  Which of these is a "better" loss?  One might argue that, looking at the records would point to Witt... but look closer at Stout's opponents.  Stout lost at Wooster (as did Wittenberg) but they then loss three conference games in a row in early January.  These losses were by 2, and in double overtime.  The third loss was against River Falls, who, at just 5-14, appear to be a rather poor team... but this team just beat Oshkosh, who was leading the WIAC.
Would Witt have lost those games?  It's hard to say... but one could easily make the arguement that Witt's record wouldn't be the same if they played in the WIAC (even in a "down" year for the WIAC like this year).

All-in-all, I think it's essentially a wash, but I think that Augie needs to be spoken about in the same breath as COW, Witt and Larry.  I tend to agree with Pat... let's wait until the NCAC giants duke it out a second time, and see how Augie does against North Park and Carthage.  These are two bottom CCIW teams, both games at home... but just ask Elmhurst and NCC how much fun it was playing against the other bottom CCIW, the Blue Boys of Millikin.

The question is for me now is IWU ALL that.

I think that's a valid questions, Smed.  While IWU had some impressive early-season wins, there's something definately not Normal in Bloomington (sorry!).  I can acknowledge that, on paper, the Titans are very talented.  They've shown that in past seasons, getting it done in the CCIW.  But there's a reason why you play the game.  There are untangibles and in a league like the CCIW, there's nothing to be taken for granted.

I would say that IWU has just had a few bumps in the road, but, while they're a few bounces from being 8-0 in conference, they're also a few bounces from being 2-6.  You've really got to look at MORE than just "talent" to figure out what's gone a-miss.

Looking at the last loss, they had 21 turnovers and missed 9 free-throws.  In the loss against Elmhurst, they had 16 turnovers and made 5/12 ft's.  These don't seem like the qualities of a program gearing up for a conference championship and beyond...  On the season, they've turned the ball over 32 more times than their opponents and committed 9 more fouls.  All-told, things don't seem to be running on all cylinders.

[Pat Coleman]

I don't see where Gordon said the loss was "bad" -- just what it was in comparison to others.

A bad loss is losing to a sub-.500 team. This is not a bad loss and Gordon never said it was.

[smedindy]

I think the fact that Wooster lost to B-W AFTER they beat Witt is why they're #2 to Witt's #1. Timing, as always, the key to life.

but one could easily make the arguement that Witt's record wouldn't be the same if they played in the WIAC (even in a "down" year for the WIAC like this year).

No one's record would be the same if they played in an uber-conference, though. You have the company you keep, and sure the WIAC is much stronger than the NCAC top to bottom, that doesn't mean that Witt and Wooster aren't fine teams. And having seen Wooster in person, I can assure you they are as good or better than the Wooster team that went to Salem.

[John Gleich]

As I posted on CCIW Chat, I think Elmhurst should make the new poll.

Though Elmhurst has shown they are a good team, I'm not really sure that they deserve to make the new poll.  Have they had good showings against good teams?  Yes, they have.  They've beaten conference foes North Central and Illinois Wesleyan, and they were right there with Augie, twice.  But, as you've said on Hoopsville before, you need to look at the entire "body of work."  Though Elmhurst has performed well in lots of these games, they still have 6 losses, including two to teams that are right around .500 in Millikin and UW-Platt.  And playing right with a team can only count for so much...  I mean, a moral-victory is only a victory in your mind... and though this can turn into a win on paper, there's no direct corollary.  Just ask Carthage... their "close call" against IWU turned into two close calls against Elmhurst and Augie... and when you follow that up with a loss to North Central, all it adds up to is an 0-4 record.

I don't discount that Elmhurst is a good team.  But I think they need to do a little more than beat the teams as their level in conference, even if it is a top conference.

I think the best thing for Elmhurst (and IWU and NCC for that matter) is the conference tournament.  These three teams, along with Augie, are going to have a battle until the finish... and an absolute war for one weekend in late February.  

[David Collinge]

I'm not so sure.  Woo lost to Bald-Wally at home.  That, I believe, is why the voters have placed Witt over Woo, even though Woo beat Witt.  So we've got Witt losing, in OT, at Woo, Witt losing at home, to Bald-Wally, Lawrence losing to noone, and Augie losing at Stout.  You've then got to look at who's been challenged more.

Lawrence has had a few games where they've been challenged... but their strength of schedule doesn't rival Augie's.  One could argue that Larry U wouldn't be undefeated if they played in the CCIW. 

I'm going to go ahead and say that Augie deserves to be placed ahead of COW because their loss was on the road instead of at home... so now it's just Witt vs. Augie. 

First, a couple of corrections.  1) Witt's loss at Woo was not in OT, it was by three.  The margin was provided by a 25 footer by Wooster's James Cooper with 0:04.1 left.  The game was at Wooster, true, but it was during Wooster's Christmas break, so the crowd factor was not what it could have been.  All in all a good loss for Witt, but not an OT loss.  2) You then have "Witt losing at home to Bald-Wally" (which is a nickname I've never heard, BTW).  Of course that's a typo, it was Wooster with that loss, as you clearly know.  But it bears mentioning that the loss was in double overtime. 

Now, as to the comparative results of Wooster and Augie vs. Stout.  What you say is true: Augie lost at Stout, and Stout lost at Wooster (again, early in the season with a smallish, docile crowd).  But Wooster beat Stout decisively.  The Scots led by 8 at the break, then went cold early in the second half, with Stout climbing back to a 64-61 lead, before Wooster took control and ran out to an eight-point victory.  I was at that game, and I was never seriously concerned about the outcome. 

Augie has had a great start to the season, and deserves to be ranked very highly (although, frankly, I have to wonder how overrated North Central and, especially, IWU are).  But I don't think they merit a ranking ahead of Wittenberg or Wooster at this point.