Top 25 talk

[smedindy]

Pat - I told our SID that we picked the wrong day to beat Wittenberg! With all the carnage elsewhere and Larry just winning by two on a last second shot, it was bad timing!

[Pat Coleman]

Indeed. Most nights that would have gotten you the main photo instead of third billing.

[fisheralum03]

Pat, when are the QOWI rankings come out. It is interesting to look at those to see where the potential rankings MIGHT and keyword is MIGHT be for Regional Rankings or even the NCAA pairings next Monday if things turn out the way they should. Yes, I know, this time of year things NEVER turn out the way they should That is why I love College Basketball whether it be D1 or D3.

[Pat Coleman]

QOWI is what I am working on as we speak ... while waiting for the last women's Top 25 ballot.

[David Collinge]

New top 25 poll (#106) news and notes, bar exam version:

First, congratulations to Lawrence for scaling the heights to #1 for the first time in poll history.  The unbeaten Vikings join a very select group, becoming just the 17th team to reach the #1 ranking.  (Seven of these 17 squads are presently in the top 25, by the way.)

In addition to Lawrence, these teams reached their highest D3hoops.com ranking this week:
#4 York (Pa.)
#8 Virginia Wesleyan (first-ever top 10 appearance)
#10 Mississippi College (first-ever top 10 appearance)

Amherst is in the top 10 for the 50th time and in the top 25 for the 61st consecutive week.  If the Lord Jeffs are ranked next week, they'll tie the record for consecutive top 25 appearances, currently shared by Catholic and UW-Stevens Point.  (Wooster's current streak is just two weeks behind, at 59.)

UW-Whitewater received votes for the 75th consecutive week.

Congratulations to all of these fine programs on their accomplishments!

[Gregory Sager]

Indeed. Most nights that would have gotten you the main photo instead of third billing.

Pat, I suspect that when people whine to you about their teams' getting left off of the front page (e.g., the MWC and SCIAC people) they're actually whining about not getting the main photo and/or lead story.

Look on the bright side. At least the whiners are looking at the front page, rather than heading straight to their Posting Up bookmarks without passing Go and collecting $200. 

[Pat Coleman]

Ehh, I'm not convinced they are reading the front page. There's evidence on either side.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Occidental loses again, justifying the precipitous drop from the poll this week.

[digs]

Not just the transitive theory, but connecting together games played six weeks apart. If you look at the Wheaton lineup in terms of age and starting experience, you would know there is reason to expect them to get better.

Our voters know this because we got preseason info from Wheaton, since they were a Top 25 team last year.

Over half of Redlands minutes are played by freshmen an sophmores... I would expect that they got better too.

[Pat Coleman]

Perhaps, but also pretty sure the ceiling is higher for Wheaton than it is for Redlands, considering where they came from last year.

[wooscotsfan]

Final:  #3 Wooster 96  Kenyon 44 

Wooster cruises to an opening game win in the NCAC tournament.  Wooster was led tonight by freshman Brandon Johnson with 17 points, James Cooper with 14 points, Andy Van Horn with 13 points, Tom Port with 10 points and Devin Fulk also with 10 points.  Wooster shot 55% from the floor tonight and made 12 three pointers.

Wooster will now host the NCAC tournament semi-finals and final game this coming weekend.

Wooster is now 24-2 this season!   

GO SCOTS!

[woosterbooster]

Yesterday, I ran a simulation of the possible matchup between Lincoln University of Pennsylvania and The College of Wooster. In a game that was tight all the way, Lincoln prevailed, pulling away at the end to win 97-88.

This matchup had intrigued me because of the uptempo styles of both teams, but also due to the presence of Lincoln's All-American guard, Kyle Myrick.  Myrick didn't disappoint, going for 37 on 11-17 shooting and adding 9 assists.  Shooting guard Sam Wylie threw in 26, eventually going 7-15 behind the arc after a dismal first half.

The contest was defined by aggressive defense, Wooster coughing up an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers to Lincoln's 17.  The Wooster guards got into foul trouble early, mostly from attempting to control Myrick.  Point guard Kyle Witucky eventually fouled out, only managing 24 minutes played, and the other three guards (Cooper, Johnson, and Fulk) all finished with 4 fouls.

See the boxscore here:

http://arkski.com/~jwood/Lincoln-Wooster.jpg

See the simulation's game screen here:

http://arkski.com/~jwood/Screenshot.jpg

[devossed]

Wooster Booster--

Here's a project for you...run sims with all possible games between the top 5 teams in this week's poll. I'd be interested in the results and to see if Larry would remain at #1 at the end of it!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

So how much faith do you put in this simulation?  Would you consider Lincoln a top 5 team now?

[woosterbooster]

Wooster Booster--

Here's a project for you...run sims with all possible games between the top 5 teams in this week's poll. I'd be interested in the results and to see if Larry would remain at #1 at the end of it!

I'm hoping to sim the whole tournament, which would be 58 games.  I've been creating those teams that either already have bids or have an excellent chance to get one. Once the draw sheet is released, I'll begin, and will have a few days headstart on the real thing but it will be impossible for me to keep pace.  Still, it should be fun and interesting.

So how much faith do you put in this simulation? Would you consider Lincoln a top 5 team now?

I actually think that the data that goes into the simulation is pretty good.  Teams are rated in a number of categories, as are individual players.  SOS is included, as can be homecourt advantage, although this game was played on a neutral court.

But the game that I played is just one game, and as much must be done manually (such as substitutions), it takes about 45 minutes to finish, so I can't really run multiple sims, it's just for fun.  And, one game doesn't really reveal a whole lot, except that these two teams are certainly competitive.  I was impressed with Lincoln, as only one other team that I've matched with Wooster has beaten them, that being Wittenberg, but they lost two out of three.
The question, though, isn't just is Lincoln a top five team, but is Wooster?