Top 25 talk

[smedindy]

But a poll, of course, is rather moot when a champion has been crowned. I pay no attention, really, to the final polls in most sports, because the championship is won on the field.

And I don't check the final power rankings after the champion has been declared.

[Mr. Ypsi]

But a poll, of course, is rather moot when a champion has been crowned. I pay no attention, really, to the final polls in most sports, because the championship is won on the field.

And I don't check the final power rankings after the champion has been declared.

Again, a difference in perspective.  If ALL you care about is who won the title, why even HAVE a final poll?  I figure the tourney winner gets the walnut-and-bronze and has the pleasure of forever being known as that year's champion - no one can take that away (well, except for the NCAA if rule-violations come to light - I forget, did 'nova have to vacate the title, or was it just Howard Porter who was stripped of his MVP)!

To me, a final poll can be a referendum on "is this REALLY the best team overall, or a sufficiently good team who got hot (and perhaps lucky) at the right time?"  If the champ is AUTOMATICALLY #1, that purpose is defeated. 

(Of course, I also like seeing who the voters think #2-#25 are!)

[smedindy]

But the poll is an imperfect beast, it can only fan flames of an arguement if a fluke winner appears, instead of celebrating that win.

[Mr. Ypsi]

But the poll is an imperfect beast, it can only fan flames of an arguement if a fluke winner appears, instead of celebrating that win.

I don't think anything pollsters can do is likely to dampen the celebration much!

And, certainly, a single-elimination tournament is far from a 'perfect' beast!  By my use of the word 'best', the best team does NOT always win.  Aside from such obvious possibilities as a team's best player sprained an ankle in the previous round (and the second-best is running a fever), true upsets DO occur.  One of the many reasons I liked Al McGuire is that he made no bones about it: "Marquette was NOT the best team that year."  If NC State played "Phi Slamma Jamma" Houston ten times, they obviously won one - you really think they would even win two?  (MAYBE, but three - no way!)

The Champion forever gets to keep the hardware, but I will not concede that they are AUTOMATICALLY 'the best'.

[Sam Johnson]

I believe Mr. Ypsi did the legwork on that.

Shoot! I was hoping to get over here and correct myself...not in time i guess. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

If ALL you care about is who won the title, why even HAVE a final poll? 

You have the final poll so a team that comes in unnoticed that moves to the sweet sixteen can get twenty or so votes and be bragging it all its friends for the next decade.

[diehardfan]

Well, and there is the fact that the other person in the final game isn't necessarily #2. The people in the final four aren't necessarily the top four, the people in the sweet sixteen aren't necessarily the top sixteen, etc. The tournament gives the opportunity for all sorts of new evaluations based on the always helpful comparative scoring.

[njlincolnlion]

Hoops Fan & April:

Hopefully Lincoln will be the team that takes advantage of being in the "Big Dance" for the first time, and have a magical run.

[John Gleich]

That's a good point April... at least a few times in the recent past, the runner-up wasn't second, or the team that took 3rd in the Final Four isn't #3 on the poll (the one I can think of off the top of my head is UWSP in 2000... they lost in the Elite 8 to Eau Claire, but were #3 in the poll).

Trinity (Tx) last year was also 3rd, after not making the Final 4... and Calvin, who placed 3rd in the NCAA's eyes, was #2, with Rochester at #4.

Heck, in 2002-03, Wooster lost to Williams in OT in the semi's, yet they were #2 instead of Gustavus Adolphus (who lost in the National Championship game).

[David Collinge]

On Jan. 25, in the Daily Dose, I posted this in response to something Dave McHugh had stated in the blog:

The most current poll is week 8. "In the Top 25 by the NCAA Tournament" I take to mean "in the final regular season top 25." In every season but one, there have been three teams that went from zero points in week 8 to within the top 25 by season's end. In fact, two of these teams made it to the national championship game. Here's the list:

2004-05: #17 Gustavus Adolphus, #21 Rochester (national runner-up), #23 UW-Platteville
2003-04: #19 Illinois Wesleyan, #21 UW-River Falls, #24 Catholic
2002-03: #23 Albion, #24 Gustavus Adolphus (national runner-up), #25 Ursinus
2001-02: none
2000-01: #15 McMurry, #19 St. Johns, #24 Maryville (TN)
1999-2000: #18 Widener, #20 Cortland St., #25 Franklin

I'd say there's still a fair amount of shaking out to do.

Now that the final regular season poll of 2005-06 is here, I thought I should update this.  In a break with the tradition, this season there was just ONE team who received no points in the Week 8 poll but entered the NCAA tournament as a member of the top 25; that team is #24 St. Thomas.

[sac]

Out of curiosity how many team ended up ranked that weren't ranked to start the year.?

....and, how many teams were ranked to start the season but did not make the NCAA tournament?

I am both to lazy and hungry to look it up.......

[Greek Tragedy]

About a month and a half ago, I ran a post that had all the teams that received votes in the Top 25 poll.  I also listed the "weighted" votes...multipliers for each week (multiplied by 1 for preseson and Week 1, multiplied by 2 for Week 2, multiplied by 13 for Week 13).

Here is the final tally for the Regular Season Polls.  It's a bit much, but what do you expect for a full season?  The list is by the weighted voting sytem (WTD); the next column is the actual number of votes received throughout the year (TOTAL); and then the number of weeks the team received votes (WKS)-14 weeks that include the preseason poll.

PL	TEAM	WTD	Total	WKS
#1	Wooster	53644	8143	14
#2	Wittenberg	50671	7578	14
#3	Lawrence	50461	6530	14
#4	Hope	48548	6490	14
#5	Amherst	41387	6406	14
#6	Illinois Wesleyan	41205	7158	14
#7	York (Pa.)	40461	6092	14
#8	Albion	38108	6021	14
#9	Baldwin-Wallace	37648	4440	14
#10	Augustana	36452	4703	14
#11	Puget Sound	31382	5567	14
#12	Mississippi College	24213	2853	14
#13	Stout	22206	2925	14
#14	North Central	19834	2148	10
#15	Worcester Polytech	19828	3635	14
#16	Virginia Wesleyan	18242	1997	12
#17	St. John Fisher	18107	2750	14
#18	Carnegie Mellon	14556	1933	12
#19	Wartburg	14471	2648	13
#20	Lincoln	13259	1634	13
#21	Carroll	12152	1139	13
#22	Occidental	11831	1315	9
#23	Transylvania	11312	1264	14
#24	Calvin	10977	1072	14
#25	Randolph-Macon	10455	2358	14
#26	Whitewater	8703	1211	14
#27	Elmhurst	5955	1376	14
#28	Hampden-Sydney	5091	1160	8
#29	Ohio Northern	4564	653	12
#30	Oshkosh	4116	1612	13
#31	Rochester	3415	1178	10
#32	Hanover	3314	1542	7
#33	Bluffton	1762	290	4
#34	Maryville (Tenn.)	1686	495	10
#35	NYU	1599	203	7
#36	St. Thomas	1461	239	11
#37	Gustavus Adolphus	1452	861	6
#38	Wilmington	1434	231	4
#39	Trinity (Conn.)	1273	150	7
#40	Catholic	1055	503	9
#41	John Carroll	975	547	6
#42	Widener	917	187	8
#43	Whitworth	847	71	3
#44	Ramapo	792	528	6
#45	Cortland State	672	71	7
#46	Stevens Point	615	237	9
#47	Albright	509	278	5
#48	Carleton	462	40	4
#49	Ursinus	315	111	5
#50	Trinity (Texas)	314	92	8
#51	La Crosse	272	27	6
#52	Tufts	264	21	2
#53	Coe	260	26	1
#54	New Jersey City	206	57	7
#55	Washington U.	194	28	6
#56	Hamilton	178	56	7
#57	Platteville	172	172	2
#58	Southwestern	153	105	3
#59	Bates	146	16	3
#60	Aurora	142	142	2
#61	Springfield	108	108	1
#62	Baruch	98	10	2
#63	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	77	6	2
#64	Potsdam State	76	57	3
#65	Christopher Newport	55	5	1
#66	Mary Washington	51	39	3
#67	Rutger-Newark	49	42	2
#68	Willamette	36	4	1
#69	Loras	31	4	2
#70	Buena Vista	26	26	1
#71	William Paterson	22	3	2
#72	Pomona-Pitzer	22	22	1
#73	New Jersey	22	2	1
#74	Hobart	21	21	1
#75	Union	20	16	2
#76	Hardin-Simmons	16	16	1
#77	Williams	15	15	2
#78	Lake Erie	13	1	1
#79	King's	13	13	1
#80	Huntington	13	1	1
#81	Howard Payne	10	1	1
#82	Salem State	7	7	1
#83	Methodist	6	6	1
#84	McMurry	6	2	1
#85	Scranton	5	5	1
#86	Keene State	3	1	1
#87	Dominican	1	1	1

[gordonmann]

OS:

That's pretty cool.  Thanks for putting this together.

Sac:

Interesting question.  Here are the teams ranked in the preseason who didn't make the tournament (rankings in parentheses).

UW-Oshkosh (2)
Albion (8 )
Hanover (9)
Ramapo (12)
Wartburg (14)
Elmhurst (15)
John Carroll (16)
Gustavus Adolphus (19)
UW-Plattville (20)
Aurora (22)
Rochester (23)


And here are the ones who finished in the Top 25 but weren't there to start (votes received in parentheses).  The threshold for cracking the preseason Top 25 was 115 votes.

#1 Lawrence (24)
#2 Hope (59)
#6 Baldwin-Wallace (24)
#10 North Central (0)
#13 Augustana (82)
#17 Carroll (8 )
#18 Lincoln (0)
#19 UW-Stout (3)
#20 Transylvania (68)
#23 Carnegie Mellon (0)
#24 St. Thomas (1 - Bragging rights for someone!)
#25 Ohio Northern (0)

[Mr. Ypsi]

gordonmann's post got me wondering about the #2 final ranking - danged if Hope is not ALSO the only #2 not to appear in the pre-season rankings!

In fact, last year's start of final (regular season) #2 Amherst at #11 was a record low at the time.  EVERY other regular season final #2 started in the pre-season at #4 or higher: 99-00: Hampden-Sydney, #2; 00-01: Wooster, #3; 01-02: WashU, #2; 02-03: WashU, #1; 03-04: Hanover, #4.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Wow, you guys need to get some more sleep, I think. 

But seriously, really cool numbers work.