Top 25 talk

[Pat Coleman]

Yep, I deliberately picked an extreme example.

[fpc85]

It has probably happened another time but that is the one that sticks out in my mind.

Here's another, less dramatic, example, one that features some of the same teams in play this week, and one that fpc85 may not like so much.

Week 13, 2004-05: Wooster #1, Amherst (23-1) #2, UW-Stevens Point (21-3) #3.  Wooster loses to #5-ranked Wittenberg and drops to #5.  Amherst won twice (Trinity, Bates) in the NESCAC tournament and remained #2.  Point won three games in the WIAC tournament and leapfrogged the Jeffs into the #1 slot.  The vote was nearly even: Point had 11 1st place votes and 601 points, Amherst had 9/597.  This was the final poll of the regular season. 

Were the voters right?  Well, Amherst lost at home in the Sweet Sixteen (to national runner-up Rochester), and Point won the "Walnut and Bronze" (smoking Rochester by 24 in the final.)

I could understand such a change in feb. not in Jan.... Lots of time to eveluate and allow the pretenders to be exposed. 04-05 brings back nightmares......Hauben was a beast.....no answer for him that day. Hopefully this years team will have more answers as they continue the season.

This has been great conversation......I still expect the Jeffs to be #1 .

fpc85, it was about 3 years ago, on another Posting Up server, on which we had a careful analysis as to the convergence of several factors that aided the NESCAC teams.

The single round robin format decreased the number of losses that the NESCAC teams sustained, which in turn gave better Strength of Schedule (SOS) Indices (as it was known then), now known as Quality of Wins Index.

The relative weakness of the neighboring teams and conferences in the Northeast gave the NESCAC lower division teams inflated SOS Indices, e.g., a victory over a Middlebury that might be 1-8 in the NESCAC but ends up 11-11 in the Northeast Region or a Connecticut College ends up 3-6 in the NESCAC but 12-11 in the Northeast Region.  By the SOSI, those extra Northeast Region non-conference games raise the SOSI value of a win over Connecticut College from 10/11 points to 12/13 points.  The victory over Middlebury raises from 8/9 to 12/13 points. (Please read the Basketball Handbook for the details.  2004 Basketball Handbook )

The primary beneficiaries were Amhest and Tufts. The strong showing by Williams in 2003 had softened some of the debate that had raged in similar discussions in 2002.

This does not mean that there won't be old smoldering sentiments about the weakness of the Northeast Region in general.  I mention this so you will be aware that the NESCAC success vis-a-vis its other Northeast Region opponents is met with skepticism by some posters from the WIAC, the CCIW, the OAC, the NCAC, the MIAA and occasionally the NJAC. 

And just to clarify, this CCIW media person and longtime Top 25 voter does not question the NESCAC's top teams at all.  I've been to Salem and watched Williams win a national title and Amherst play both Wittenberg and Illinois Wesleyan to final possession type games 9 months ago.  I've seen Nogelo and Crotty and Coffin and Bedford play.   I understand that the NESCAC's best teams are always national title contenders, just as the CCIW's, WIAC's, NCAC's, OAC's, etc are.

It is the Northeast region that is the problem.  I don't think anyone can debate that it is extremely weak outside of the NESCAC.  A team like Amherst, scheduling in-region as D3 teams are encouraged to do, is left with terribly weak non-conference schedule.  That is where, as a Top 25 voter, I struggle.  It is so much easier to evaluate teams who play multiple other good teams.  Like UW-Stevens Point, which has played at Lawrence and vs Augustana outside of the WIAC.  Or Wooster facing Ohio Northern and an NAIA I powerhouse.  10-0 Whitworth has an impressive win at Wheaton.  Lawrence has played Stevens Point, Oshkosh, and Carthage.

I'm not sure this is anyone's fault that Amherst's non-conference schedule is so weak or that there is anything that be can done to fix it.  Maybe other "Top 25 caliber" D3 teams outside of the region won't play Amherst...I don't know.  But the simple fact is that this voter in Illinois (who doesn't get to see Amherst play) has a hard time evaluating how they stack up vs other Top 10 teams.  I saw Amherst play last year and I know they lost a couple very key players (Bedord and Casnocha?) -- coming into the season I assumed they would not be as good as last year.  Right now on paper, all I have to judge whether I was right or wrong is a win over Brandeis and a bunch of wins over weak teams.  As a voter, I probably look at strength of schedule above everything else...other voters evaluate teams in their own way. 

Amherst is a great team and I suspect they'll move into the #1 spot.  We'll learn more as the NESCAC plays out.

All the skepticism makes more sense. That being said, the jeffs are the exception not the rule in the NE...I think they can compete in any conference. I am sure that the would have more losses if they played in some of the other power conferences. But the reality is they aren't and only the NCAA's will change that perspective. i saw Wittenberg and IWU last year and both teams were outstanding. I thought we held our own. Hopefully, we will have more opportunities to represent the NE. Enjoy the afternoon....I gotta go coach my boys (HS team).

[Pat Coleman]

What? It makes MORE sense in January. If someone plays four games over a holiday break, that's adding more than 50% to their results so far. That's a huge amount of new data.

You're just spinning, bobbing and weaving, trying to find an argument that will help Amherst. Let's try this one -- here's the totals the voters are looking at right now:

Team A: Record of opponents played to date: 35-40, .466
Team B: Record of opponents played to date: 70-32, .686
Team C: Record of opponents played to date: 65-49, .570

That's all the games the opponents have played against teams other than the one we're ranking (you can add nine or ten losses and one or zero wins if you like).

Or this list:
Record of D-III opponents played to date: 54-27, .667
Record of D-III opponents played to date: 63-26, .707
Record of D-III opponents played to date: 35-40, .466

[David Collinge]

Actually, the totals the voters are looking at right now are Nebraska 14, Auburn 14, and Penn State 10, Tennessee 10.   

But seriously, I had the same reaction as Pat.  This is the assertion that I have been trying to answer in this discussion:

My only complaint has been that there is something wrong  with the top 25 listing if the Jeffs are not #1 in the next poll. It questions the ranking process of the earlier polls.

Surely a voter changing his mind about Amherst vis-a-vis Ohio Northern in early January is less "questionable" than doing so in late February!  Relatively little new information about teams is added in the conference tournament, where as TONS of new information was added these past two weeks.  It makes MUCH more sense to re-order your ballot this week than it will later in the season. 

Good luck to your boys team.  I can't believe you're making them play on New Year's Day, but I guess that's part of being in New England, where there is no football.   

[Titan Q]

UT-Dallas is an intriguing team.  I saw them last year in the opening game of the season.  They gave then #1 Illinois Wesleyan a good game, before losing by 13.

http://www.iwu.edu/~iwunews/sports/mbb2006/miwu1.htm

I believe they went on to have a bad season, which surprised me.  I remember thinking that shooting guard Martin Salinas was every bit as good as eventual 2006 CCIW Most Outstanding Player Rick Harrigan (Augustana).  They seemed like a pretty good team to me.

The UT-Arlington win is impressive, but having seen UT-Arlington I'm not sure it means quite as much to me as if I hadn't seen them.  In early December I saw Arlington play Illinois State, the Missouri Valley Conference D1 team just down the road from IWU.  Arlington is a really bad D1 team that probably wouldn't finish in the top 2 of leagues like the WIAC, OAC, and CCIW.  They have size and are athletic, but not a lot of basketball skill.  Don't get me wrong though...not saying that wasn't a real good win.  If UT-Dallas went on the road to, say, UW-Oshkosh or Baldwin-Wallace or Wheaton and won, that would get my attention.

UT-Dallas will be on my ballot, that's for sure. 

[AndOne]

Lots of analyzing for a team whose opponents have averaged 3.8 wins this season. Amherst the NATION'S #1 team? 
COME ON! 
Somebody must be kidding.   

[Ralph Turner]

Q, thanks for the assessment of UTA vs. another D1.

Coach Terry Butterfield at UT-D has added some talent his year.  You saw Martin Salinas, the point guard Travis Carruthers and then Ernie Lowrey off the bench in the IWU-UTD game.  The Comets have added a 6'5" freshman center named Jordan Eppink from the Houston suburb of Spring, TX, who looks like the standard CCIW player (from my having seen Wheaton at UDallas in 2004 and a chance to meet Gregory Sager at a NPU scrimmage in 2005) and a 6'1" freshman guard named Scott Rodgers from The Woodlands, TX, who is very savvy and freshman Brandon Green.  Academic standards at UT-D are as high as any private ASC school and may be closer to SCAC schools, so these are no academic slouches.

Conservatively, I can say that you need to watch this team by how poised and disciplined they play.  UTD has the Abilene road trip this weekend to HSU on Thursday and McMurry on Saturday, and then open East Division play.  They go away and home with MissColl on Jan 11th and then Feb 15th.

The ASC Men's post-season tourney is hosted on the East this year.  IF UT-D and MissColl go 19-1 in the conference (and I anticipate they will), I see the pertinent tie-breakers being point differential vs. each other (10-pt max) and then to the coin flip for the right to host the 8-team post-season tourney.

As for Top 25, they are a solid team.  How they handle this win in Abilene should set the tone for the season.  If it comes down to the MissColl game in February in Dallas, the gym should be rocking.  Even as a suburban commuter school, UT-D can still draw a pretty good crowd, and their fans can get into a game.

For you fans on the web, beginning this year, Bill Mercer, a Dallas broadcasting icon and University of North Texas faculty member, has helped start webcasting, by using University of North Texas Radio/TV students to braodcast the UT-D home games as part of their practicum.  Bill Mercer was a minor league announcer before the Rangers (think Bull Durham), announced Sportatorium Wrestling with Kerry Von Erich in the early 1960's, was part of the team covering the Kennedy assassination.  Many north Texas sportsfans grew up listening to him.  For UNT students to get to learn broadcasting from him is a real experience.

UTD webcast link...

http://cometsports.utdallas.edu/UTDATH/LIVE.htm

I hope the UTD-Miss Coll will be broadcast on Feb 15th.

[fpc85]

What? It makes MORE sense in January. If someone plays four games over a holiday break, that's adding more than 50% to their results so far. That's a huge amount of new data.

You're just spinning, bobbing and weaving, trying to find an argument that will help Amherst. Let's try this one -- here's the totals the voters are looking at right now:

Team A: Record of opponents played to date: 35-40, .466
Team B: Record of opponents played to date: 70-32, .686
Team C: Record of opponents played to date: 65-49, .570

That's all the games the opponents have played against teams other than the one we're ranking (you can add nine or ten losses and one or zero wins if you like).

Or this list:
Record of D-III opponents played to date: 54-27, .667
Record of D-III opponents played to date: 63-26, .707
Record of D-III opponents played to date: 35-40, .466

I admit I'm a fan of the Jeffs and would love to see them #1....big surprise.....I originally posted here to understand the process of the top 25. I get it. It's flawed for b/c of the regional scheduling....no problem....I guess I put too much stock in it...my fault. You guys do a great job... in fact, an almost impossible job....I wish there were something like this available when I was playing, you learn a lot about other teams and various styles of play.

[Pat Coleman]

I get it. It's flawed for b/c of the regional scheduling....no problem....I guess I put too much stock in it...my fault.

Honestly, I think what's flawed is your assumptions about how polls work. These kind of adjustments actually do go on all the time. It's just magnified when a new No. 1 is chosen. No. 1 is the most important spot in the poll and it merits the extra attention.

[fpc85]

You are right. My thinking was obviously flawed.

[Gregory Sager]

gccfan, I saw UTD tonight.  They played a very disciplined well-controlled game.  They move the ball well.  Martin Salinas was able to hit some early 3 pointers and put UTD up by 7 (19-12) at the 13:08 mark in the first.  UTA led 35-34 at the half.  Salinas gave Trinity all it could handle 2 years ago in the first round in Trinity's 66-60 win over UT-D.  IMHO, he is All-Region at the least.

Jordan Eppink is a very good freshman cneter (6'5" from Spring, TX  Houston suburb).  He missed some FT's at the end but did not hurt them. 

Scott Rodgers from The Woodlands,TX  is a 6'1" freshman who came off the bench for 19 points.  Rodgers was expecting looks from D1's, but got none and so was convinced to walk onto UT-D team when he arrived on campus this fall.  Rodgers got most of his points by taking the backdoor pass down low, I have his being 6-6 on 2FG's, almost all backdoor layups, plus 2 more assists on the backdoor play into the basket.  He is very good.

Travis Carruthers is a very heady 5'10" senior PG.  He runs the offense very well.

Mike McKee, a 6'2" junior from Houston, seems to pull the major defensive duties.

Ernie Lowrey, 6'1" sophomore from Spring, TX, seems to be the most athletic player on the team.

Brandon Green, a 6'1" Freshman from Houston, came off the bench for 9 points in 14 minutes.

UTD 78, UT-Arlington 76

Ralph, do you find it odd that the bulk of the UT-Dallas roster is from the Houston area? Houston's 240 miles away, and I'm sure that the huge Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area provides a pretty substantial potential talent pool for UTD. Plus, it's not as though UTD is recruiting from Houston because of the coaches; Terry Butterfield's a Florida native who spent eleven years at Virginia Wesleyan before taking over for the Comets, and his assistant is an Austin guy.

Besides, I thought that Houston folks hated Dallas, and vice-versa.

[fpc85]

This was taken from the NE region forum. It was posted by the historian. Comments? (Not sure how to insert quote from different site so I just copied and pasted)

Pat,

To paraphrase a great intellectual, it seems to me that you are "just spinning, bobbing and weaving" trying to find arguments against Amherst.  All a team can do is go out and win the games on its schedule.  To that end, Amherst has done its job better than any other team in the nation other than Wooster in the 2000s.  Granted, as has been well documented, for teams in NE, this means playing (and beating) more less-competitive teams than teams in other regions must.

Perhaps that should invalidate Amherst (or any team from NE) from holding the top spot unless they actually win the title.  If you want to make that argument, fine.  There's certainly a precedent for it.  Take D1 football, for example.  Boise State at 12-0 is not in the national title game.  In both season-ending polls, they were ranked 9th, lower than seven other teams with more losses than they had.  But outside of some folks in Idaho, few people, I'm sure, truly believe that Boise State got jobbed this year.  Their conference, schedule, etc isn't as tough as those in the major conferences.  Good.  Great.  I get it.  I even agree with it.

Personally, of course, I think Amherst is different.  I think over the last few years they (and the top NE schools, in general, have proven their merit on the national stage.  While the region as a whole may be weaker than some, the top few teams out of NE can run with any of the other national powers.

But I'm open to those who disagree with this.  However, to them I would ask what the ceiling should be for NE schools in the national polls during the regular season.  If I understand the arguments against Amherst this year, it seems to me that many people simply do not think a NE team should ever be a mid-season number one, given the region's weakness.  If that's the case, then what is the highest an undefeated NE team should be ranked in the national polls?  Pat, what do you say?  You love numbers, so give me some numbers.  In the depths of your "enlightened" mind, how good do you really think the top NE teams are year in and year out?  Was Williams an aberration a few years ago, winning a title and setting the national record for consecutive wins?  Has Amherst been an aberration the last few years?  What about Conn College in the late 90s?  It must have really set your teeth on edge when Amherst and Williams both made the Final Four three years ago.  How could such an inferior region contribute fully half of the Salem contingent?

Frankly this year, as an Amherst fan, I don't care all that much about the number one ranking.  Sure, it's fun to point to and brag about.  But honestly I'd be content with a top 4 national ranking and a number 1 regional ranking that would give the Jeffs homecourt through the sectional finals (assuming that they continue their winning ways).

Basically, I'd just love to hear some direct, honest opinions from all those who continue to disparage the NE region.  Don't keep taking pot-shots at Amherst or other top NE teams.  They are doing all that you can ask of them.  If that's not enough in your minds for a number one national ranking, okay, but what is it good enough for in your "enlightened" opinions?

Don't hate the students; hate the classes they take.

[Pat Coleman]

I suppose we should punish a team with a better resume simply because Amherst has played a poor schedule, then.

[Mr. Ypsi]

fpc,

Unless I've missed it, no one has taken potshots at Amherst - don't confuse "I just can't tell" with "they are unworthy".  I'm sure they are very good - they always are.  But whether they are #1, #4, or even #7 just isn't knowable from their resume so far. 

And for the school (not the players) it is a cop-out to say 'this is the schedule they face'.  They play fewer conference games than any other top team not in the NESCAC (or independent); there is certainly room on the schedule for some top quality opponents, even if not in-region.  Schedule some top NJAC, OAC, NCAC, etc., opponents and this conversation will not have to be repeated again next year!

[Greek Tragedy]

fpc,

Unless I've missed it, no one has taken potshots at Amherst - don't confuse "I just can't tell" with "they are unworthy".  I'm sure they are very good - they always are.  But whether they are #1, #4, or even #7 just isn't knowable from their resume so far. 

Knowable?  LOL   

And for the school (not the players) it is a cop-out to say 'this is the schedule they face'.  They play fewer conference games than any other top team not in the NESCAC (or independent); there is certainly room on the schedule for some top quality opponents, even if not in-region.  Schedule some top NJAC, OAC, NCAC, etc., opponents and this conversation will not have to be repeated again next year!

I'm too lazy to look at a map right now, but I'm sure there are plenty of quality opponents that Amherst can play that would be considered in-region, especially since they changed the rules that state regions that border "your" region are also considered in-region, no matter how far away they are...am I correct on that?