Top 25 talk

[David Collinge]

Top 25 Scores and Schedules, Jan. 15-21 (UPDATED with some Tuesday scores):

#1 UW-Stevens Point (14-1) plays at UW-Platteville Wed. and hosts UW-River Falls Sat.
#2 Amherst (15-0) def. Elms 103-69, hosts Middlebury Fri., and hosts Williams Sat.
#3 St. Thomas (13-1) plays at St. John's Wed. and plays at St. Mary's (MN) Sat.
#4 Wooster (13-2) plays at Hiram Wed. and plays at Ohio Wesleyan Sat.
#5 Virginia Wesleyan (12-2) plays at Eastern Mennonite Wed. and hosts Randolph-Macon Sat.
#6 Wittenberg (13-2) plays at Ohio Wesleyan Wed. and hosts Allegheny Sat.
#7 Mississippi College (14-1) won at Louisiana College 63-43 and plays at U. of the Ozarks Sat.
#8 Ohio Northern (12-3) hosts Otterbein Wed. and plays at Marietta Sat.
#9 Elmhurst (13-1) plays at North Park Wed. and plays at Wheaton (IL) Sat.
#10 Whitworth (14-1) hosts Whitman Tue. and plays at Willamette Fri.
#11 Hope (12-2) plays at Adrian Wed. and hosts Alma Sat.
#12 UW-Oshkosh (13-3) hosts UW-Whitewater Wed. and plays at UW-Superior Sat.
#13 Washington U. (12-1) hosts Rochester Fri. and hosts Carnegie Mellon Sun.
#14 Puget Sound (12-2) hosts Lewis and Clark Fri. and hosts Linfield Sat.
#15 Augustana (12-3) plays at Millikin Wed. and plays at North Central Sat.
#16 UW-La Crosse (11-4) plays at UW-River Falls Wed. and plays at UW-Eau Claire Sat.
#17 Occidental (9-3) plays at Pomona-Pitzer Wed. and plays at Cal Lutheran Sat.
#18 Worcester Polytech (12-1) plays at MIT Wed. and hosts Springfield Sat.
#19 Aurora (12-1) plays at Concordia (IL) Tue., plays at Concordia (WI) Thu., and hosts Rockford Sat.
#20 Guilford (11-1) plays at Roanoke Wed., hosts Bridgewater (VA) Sat., and hosts Eastern Mennonite Sun.
#21 Bates (12-2) won at St. Joseph's (ME) 89-80, hosts Husson Thu., and hosts Tufts Sat.
#22 Rhode Island College (14-1) def. Western Connecticut 85-61 and plays at #24 Keene St. Sat.
#23 Carthage (9-5) plays at North Central Wed. and hosts Millikin Sat.
#24 Keene St. (13-21) lost to Eastern Connecticut 73-71 and hosts #22 Rhode Island College Sat.
#25 Johns Hopkins (13-2) plays at Franklin and Marshall Wed. and plays at Dickinson Sat.

[sac]

Anone else more than a little surprised to see Carthage still ranked after 3 straight losses, 2 last week.  Granted they were to ranked Augustana and Elmhurst.  Personally I think they're a good team but 3 straight losses usualy means your out of the poll.

To me the toughest team to rank might have been Ohio Northern, considering their wins over Witt and Woo.

[mrmike88]

Looks like either Keene State or RIC will enjoy a one-week stay in the poll, since they play each other this week and are both ranked at the bottom of the poll...

[PrideSportBBallGuy]

[applause]  One vote.  Don't you think GC should be listed before AU  (I know it is in alphabetical order)

[Gregory Sager]

Anone else more than a little surprised to see Carthage still ranked after 3 straight losses, 2 last week.  Granted they were to ranked Augustana and Elmhurst.  Personally I think they're a good team but 3 straight losses usualy means your out of the poll.

Perhaps all of your Posting Up politicking for les hommes de rouge paid off for Bosko & Co.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Looks like either Keene State or RIC will enjoy a one-week stay in the poll, since they play each other this week and are both ranked at the bottom of the poll...

I don't understand the big vote disparity here.  Their schedules are very similar.  RIC beat Tufts by 9 and KSC lost to Tufts in 3OT.  Keene won the first head-to-head and has played consistently strong in all of their games.  To me it seems like Keene is the better club and at worst they are even, but RIC has 50% more points in the poll that Keene.  Very odd to me.

[Ralph Turner]

Looks like either Keene State or RIC will enjoy a one-week stay in the poll, since they play each other this week and are both ranked at the bottom of the poll...

I don't understand the big vote disparity here.  Their schedules are very similar.  RIC beat Tufts by 9 and KSC lost to Tufts in 3OT.  Keene won the first head-to-head and has played consistently strong in all of their games.  To me it seems like Keene is the better club and at worst they are even, but RIC has 50% more points in the poll that Keene.  Very odd to me.

I attribute that to "early season unfamiliarity".  The voters are giving the Northeast some "props" and may think more of the Iona win or may like the Tufts outcome better than the head-to-head.  The differences in 33 (1 and 1/3rd places) votes are magnified at the bottom of the poll.  I look at votes totals in big groups as to where the team fits on the Perfect top 25.  RIC is a solid #22.  KSC is a strong "#23.5".

The vote break in this poll is really after #16.  The top 16 are believable in the eyes of the voters.  They just don't know who are the best #17 thru #19.  There are a lot of votes for #17-19 that are not settled yet.  (#16 - 250 votes in the Perfect Top 25;  #17 - 225 votes, etc.)

[Mr. Ypsi]

David,

I tried to respond this on your Daily Dose, but it won't accept me!  (Never had trouble before; even switched passwords due to the error message, nothing worked.)

While I think Carthage is very good (certainly top 40, maybe top 30), I too am mystified how they could still be ranked after losing 3 in a row and 4 of 5, especially since their highest ranking this season was 17th.  I realize you work only with the final numbers (and are not into psychoanalyzing voters!), but I wonder if any team has ever had such staying power from a not-so-lofty perch?

By mid-season, if a top 5 team loses 3 of 3 and 4 of 5, they probably won't drop out completely (though probably about Carthage's current 23).  But a team that never rose above 17??

I hope this is not too 'gnarly' a question (and feel free to psychoanalyze the voters if you wish)!

[Titan Q]

David,

I tried to respond this on your Daily Dose, but it won't accept me!  (Never had trouble before; even switched passwords due to the error message, nothing worked.)

While I think Carthage is very good (certainly top 40, maybe top 30), I too am mystified how they could still be ranked after losing 3 in a row and 4 of 5, especially since their highest ranking this season was 17th.  I realize you work only with the final numbers (and are not into psychoanalyzing voters!), but I wonder if any team has ever had such staying power from a not-so-lofty perch?

By mid-season, if a top 5 team loses 3 of 3 and 4 of 5, they probably won't drop out completely (though probably about Carthage's current 23).  But a team that never rose above 17??

I hope this is not too 'gnarly' a question (and feel free to psychoanalyze the voters if you wish)!

The "4 of 5" thing is misleading -- that first loss of the 4 was to Lewis U., a member of the best NCAA Division II league in the country, and a team stocked with scholarship players.  That loss shouldn't hurt a D3 team at all.

Carthage was ranked #17 when they lost at Illinois Wesleyan in a barn-burner.  The Red Men dropped to #18 in the Week 6 poll.  Last week Carthage lost at home to the team the voters just slotted #9 (Elmhurst) and on the road to #15 (Augustana).  If the poll is right, which game last week was Carthage supposed to win?

Carthage still has wins @ Gustavus Adolphus, @ Carroll, vs #11 Hope, vs Calvin, and @ Lawrence.  Those wins don't just get wiped away because they played a nasty three-game stretch in one of the nation's best conferences.

Wednesday Carthage plays @ North Central -- it doesn't get any easier.  I believe the 23rd best team in the country - whoever that actually is - would be an underdog in all 4 of Carthage's first games (@IWU, Elmhurst, @Augustana, @North Central).  IWU isn't a Top 25 team this year, but a "favorite" over #23 at home...yes.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Q,

Point taken (and agreed).

But I still wonder if it is unprecedented for a team NEVER higher than 17th to fall only to 23rd after 3 straight losses?  I'm betting it is.

Teams in the top 5 (or 10) get some benefit of the doubt; teams in the bottom 5 (or 10) are usually gone after even two losses, much less three.

[Titan Q]

Q,

Point taken (and agreed).

But I still wonder if it is unprecedented for a team NEVER higher than 17th to fall only to 23rd after 3 straight losses?  I'm betting it is.

Teams in the top 5 (or 10) get some benefit of the doubt; teams in the bottom 5 (or 10) are usually gone after even two losses, much less three.

I don't know if it has happened before or not.  Keep in mind though, by this time of year most voters look at things one week at a time.  Carthage was dropped in the poll for the loss @ IWU.  That game was filed away and done with.  On the ballot submitted this Monday the voters looked at the results from last week only (the games vs Elmhurst and @Augustana), and dropped Carthage from #18 to #23. 

[David Collinge]

Week 4: Carthage is #18 with 192 points
Carthage thumps Olivet and Marietta, then loses to D2 Lewis
Week 5: Carthage is #17 with 194 points (in other words, unchanged)
Carthage beats Northland, then loses by 3 at Illinois Wesleyan
Week 6: Carthage is #18 with 198 points (in other words, unchanged)
Carthage loses to Elmhurst by 10 and at Augustana by 16
Week 7: Carthage is #23 with 89 points...less than half of the points of the previous weeks
(Elmhurst moves from #14 to #9, Augie stays at #15)

You can't look at these things in isolation.  What happened to those who were below Carthage in last week's poll?
#19 Johns Hopkins went 2-1, losing to 6-8 Haverford at home
#20 UW-La Crosse beat #10 UW-Oshkosh and moved up
#21 Wheaton lost at home to Augustana and beat North Park
#22 Oxy beat CMS and moved up
#23 Worcester Poly went 3-0 and moved up
#24 NYU lost at Brandeis and beat Hunter College
#25 Aurora went 2-0 and moved up
[#26] Guilford beat E&H and moved up
[#27] Averett lost by 24 to Greensboro, their 4th loss in 5 games
[#28] RIC went 3-0 and moved up
[#29] North Central beat Millikin but lost to North Park
...and NCC was 164 points behind Carthage, roughly 6 1/2 ballot positions.  It seems to me that everyone within 164 points of Carthage that could have passed them did so, with the possible exceptions of Wheaton and NYU.  But, Wheaton was 76 points behind Carthage and NYU was 123 points in arrears, and they both gained substantially on the Red Men (Wheaton +35, NYU +82).  (Plus, bear in mind that Wm. Paterson had a bad week and dropped past Carthage.)  Maybe if that group between #19 and [#29] had done a bit better, Carthage would have dropped out.  But you've got to put somebody's name in those last 5 slots on your ballot, and Carthage has as good or better case than most of the rest.

As to whether anyone has lost 3 straight games and remained in the bottom third of the poll, your guess would be as good as mine, as I don't track wins and losses of ranked teams in my database. 

[David Collinge]

Looks like #24 Keene State's stay in the top 25 may be short-lived, as they lost at home tonight to Eastern Connecticut, 73-71.

[gordonmann]

Their conference mates RIC fared better, demolishing 10-win WCSU 85-61.

Anchors away.

[mrmike88]

RIC also has Amherst at home coming up in a few weeks.  As a Jeffs fan, it's one I'm worried about.