South Region playoffs

[Bill McCabe]

UMHB's safest route to the playoffs is winning Saturday.  2 losses with Whitewater on the schedule make it very difficult.

[Olinemom]

Several players from Bridgewater have played in the Stagg Bowl since 2001 and even though they've been on teams that have gone deep and not so deep in the playoffs they've always managed to make it in time for the game.   It seems to be like a great trip for the kids that get to go and I think it's a great opportunity not only to travel but to bring together D3 players that may never meet/play agaisnt each other.

Don't you mean the Aztec Bowl down in Mexico?  I know Marcus went there and Nic did too.  Michael Day as well.

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

Several players from Bridgewater have played in the Stagg Bowl since 2001 and even though they've been on teams that have gone deep and not so deep in the playoffs they've always managed to make it in time for the game.   It seems to be like a great trip for the kids that get to go and I think it's a great opportunity not only to travel but to bring together D3 players that may never meet/play agaisnt each other.

Don't you mean the Aztec Bowl down in Mexico?  I know Marcus went there and Nic did too.  Michael Day as well.

From Bridgewater, Davon Cruz (2001) and Jermaine Taylor (2003) were invited, but couldn't play (BC was in the NCAA semis those years).

Mike Day (2002), Lawrence Frierson (2004) and Marcus Washington (2005) were invited and were able to play. So we've had a senior invited the past five years.

I hope Winston Young or Josh Knight are invited, but I really hope they can't play.

[religion_major]

Several players from Bridgewater have played in the Stagg Bowl since 2001 and even though they've been on teams that have gone deep and not so deep in the playoffs they've always managed to make it in time for the game.   It seems to be like a great trip for the kids that get to go and I think it's a great opportunity not only to travel but to bring together D3 players that may never meet/play agaisnt each other.

Don't you mean the Aztec Bowl down in Mexico?  I know Marcus went there and Nic did too.  Michael Day as well.

From Bridgewater, Davon Cruz (2001) and Jermaine Taylor (2003) were invited, but couldn't play (BC was in the NCAA semis those years).

Mike Day (2002), Lawrence Frierson (2004) and Marcus Washington (2005) were invited and were able to play. So we've had a senior invited the past five years.

I hope Winston Young or Josh Knight are invited, but I really hope they can't play.

Makes two of us...

[billybaroo]

UMHB CRUSADERS CRU CRU CRUSADERS WHAT!!!

[Hug]

Sooooo, how do we shape up at this point in the season?

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

Sooooo, how do we shape up at this point in the season?

Hopefully Ralph Turner and/or Llamaguy are hard at work to answer this.

[Ralph Turner]

Sooooo, how do we shape up at this point in the season?

Hopefully Ralph Turner and/or Llamaguy are hard at work to answer this.

This evening...

[religion_major]

For the South Region Playoff analyisis:

Pool A:

CC: Ursinus(5-0) and Dickenson(4-1) have overall winning records.  Both are still undefeated in conference play.  No other CC team has a winning record, but at this point only Muhlenberg is more than one game out of first place in the conference.  The CC is traditionally unpredictable and at this point I would say that either Ursinus or Dickenson will win the conference considering that they have been the most consistent this year.  I can't see any CC team having the qualifications to get a pool C bid.  Ursinus is the only team that could possibly be 9-1 without winning the conference, and there is no CC team with a quality win to justify consideration at 8-2.

ODAC:  Bridgewater(5-0) and Washington and Lee(4-1) appear to be the main contenders this year.  Catholic(3-2) and Guilford(3-2) both have winning records, but both already have a conference loss and neither have played Bridgewater yet.  Guilford also has yet to play Washington and Lee.  Neither have played consistently enough to garner much consideration in this discussion yet.  A victory by Guilford over Bridgewater would allow them back into the conversation.  I would say that Bridgewater is favorite considering their recent conference record and the fact that Washington and Lee must travel to Bridgewater this year.  The only team that I could see getting much consideration at the pool C level from the ODAC this year would be Bridgewater if they fail to win the conference.  The best that Washington and Lee could do is 8-2 without winning the ODAC and an 8-2 team generally needs a banner win to hang its hat on.  Washington and Lee has not beaten anyone that would qualify as a banner win.

[religion_major]

Pool A continued:

USAC:  Christopher Newport(4-1) and Averett(3-2) are both undefeated in conference play.  Maryville(3-3) is the only other team with a winning record so far in conference play.  It appears to be a two horse race with CNU and Averett for the USAC crown.  CNU has one loss to national power Rowan while Averett's two losses came to Mount Union and Wesley respectively.  CNU might get some pool c consideration should Averett win the conference at 8-2 with a quality win over Mary Hardin-Baylor.  Averett's only hope for the playoffs this year is to beat CNU and win the USAC.

SCAC:  Trinity(5-1), Rhodes(4-1), and Millsaps(2-3) are all undefeated in conference play.  Millsaps would appear to be a non-factor with a losing record at this point in the year.  Trinity should have the inside track to the conference title since they have already beaten the traditional number 2 team in this conference, DePauw(4-1).  Should DePauw win out and beat Wabash in the Mannon Bell game they would have an excellent shot at a pool c bid with a 9-1 record and a win over a quality opponent. 

ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor(4-1) has established itself as the front runner by beating Hardin-Simmons(3-1).  UMHB is the only undefeated team in ASC play, while HSU, Sul Ross State(3-1), and Louisiana College(3-1) each have only one conference loss.  Louisiana College is the only one ASC loss team that still has to play UMHB giving the Crusaders the inside track to the ASC title and AQ.  Hardin-Simmions has an excellent shot at a pool c bid should they win the remainder of their games considering that they already have a quality win over Linfield.  The UMHB/UW-Whitewater game will likely effect seeding, but with the Crusader's position in the conference race, it will not have much of an impact on their ability to make the playoffs.

Disclaimer: The language of quality win for the purposes of my playoff projections means a win over a likely regionally ranked team, which is a primary criteria for determining at large bids. 

[religion_major]

Pool B:

The South region contains two pool B conferences and a sprinkling of Independents compeating for one of the four nation wide pool B playoff spots.  Looking at the regional location of Pool B conferences, I believe that 2-3 of the 4 pool B bids will come from South Region teams.  Wesley(5-0) is at this point almost a shoe-in for a pool B birth.  Carnegie Mellon(5-0) and Washington and Jefferson(4-1) appear to have decent selection but cannot afford to stumble if they wish to get a bid.  Results from the Northwest Conference will play a part here because Linfield(2-1, and a non-d3 loss) and Witworth(5-0) are also compeating with CMU and W&J for 3 pool B spots.  I believe that Linfield must either beat Witworth or pray that CMU and W&J do not finish 10-0 and 9-1 respectively.  At this point CMU, W&J and Linfield all lack a quality win.  A win over Witworth would be a quality win for Linfield.  Neither CMU or W&J has a game left on their schedule that would likely constitute a quality win.  Rockford(5-1) is also still in the pool B race.  Rockford does not have a quality win opportunity left either and would need to win out to get much consideration.  Witworth and Wesley are the only teams that can afford a slipup and still make the playoffs in pool B without help.

[religion_major]

Projected South Region Playoff teams:

Wesley
Bridgewater
Dickenson
CNU
UMHB
Hardin-Simmons
Trinity
CMU
DePauw

With someone being moved out of region.

[Bill McCabe]

Religion major,  out of those 9 teams, who would you project being moved out of region?

[Bob.Gregg]

Major,

Are you saying W&J doesn't make it, even if they run the table?

Are you saying W&J gets shipped somewhere else?

[Llamaguy]

Sooooo, how do we shape up at this point in the season?

Hopefully Ralph Turner and/or Llamaguy are hard at work to answer this.

Working on this weekend's tailgate! I'll begin compiling my notes and make predictions after all this weekends results are in the book.