South Region playoffs

[Llamaguy]

You guys need to rethink all of your south brackets now that BC is not going to be 10-0.  Maybe they should have played a tougher out of conference schedule, hindsight being 20/20 and all.

I'm sorry Lifer but for a guy who is an educated "broker" / "company owner" thats a pretty "grade school comment", LOL! A couple of drops of blood in the water and Lifer becomes a Great White! If CNU trips up which I hope they won't, be assured the favor won't be returned, but glad you enjoyed the BC loss.

[CNULifer]

Never said I was all those things.  Just asked why I couldn't be?  Check my post.

I did not enjoy BC loss.  Just thought that the out of confernce schedule bit bc a little, now that they are not going 10-0.  Hey, BC will probably win out and still get to the dance.  They just won' have the easiest road to travel when they get there.

Easy scheduling in my mind is very scary because you can never take your conference for granted.  I know this will upset the usac guys but, maybe exculding CNU's first year, CNU was the best team in the conference by far and we still couldn't beat SU.  The posts before had a lot of rahrah for each team BC / CNU.  This post does not.  What has now happened to BC is exactly what I was trying to convey earlier.  The possiblity of loss is always there.  BC is now left with a now what situation where they have to root for other teams so that they may get in the Playoffs.

As far as CNU goes, I am far from convinced that we will win out.  We took some steps saturday.  But D stopped playing at half time. 

The real question for me is what would happen if CNU does stumble one time.

Here is the hypothetical.  CNU goes 8 - 1 in region and BC goes 9 - 1 in region.  Who would get the playoff bid and why?  Strength of schedule is on CNU's side and Margin of Victory and Playoff presidence is on BC side.  What is more important?

[Pat Coleman]

That's not enough data.

[Llamaguy]

That's not enough data.

I'll help him out Pat.

First off, if BC doesn't win out its a moot point to be compared to CNU.

If W&L loses to Guilford next week then Guilford would hold the tiebreaker and would be the ODAC Champion provided they win out. BC would then fall into Pool C consideration.

Here is the Comparison:Primary Selection Criteria    CNU   vs.   BC

• win/loss in region          8-1  vs.  9-1
• QOWI (projected)         10.11 vs. 9.5
• in region head to head        none
• in region vs common opponents 2-0 vs. 2-0
• in region vs. regionally ranked   1-1 or 2-1 vs. possibly 1-0

In addition to this the secondary critera that may come into play is:
1) Overall D3 won/loss% = 8-2   vs.  9-1
2) results vs. ranked in other regions =  0-1  vs. 0-0
3) overall D3 sos = 9.8 vs. 9.5

*a few assumptions were made:
CNU's loss would be to Averett
W&L & Averett would be a regionally ranked team

Based on all this I would say CNU would hold the advantage with the only way BC would look better would be if CNU's loss would be to Ferrum. In that case BC would hold the "in region common opponent" advantage and would look better by beating Shenandoah by 30pts vs. 14pts for CNU.

Personally if CNU loses a game I would be more worried about Depauw winning out and getting the Pool C bid over CNU. Carnegie Mellon would also have to be considered if they go undefeated.

At this point barring an unforseen occurance, (like they somehow win their conference) I see Hardin-Simmons, UW-Lacrosse, Capital, and St. Olaf as very good bets to receive Pool C bids. In my opinion that leaves about 18-20 teams alive for 3 spots, nationwide.

In a nutshell, you better win your conference this year because there could be some tough decisions made by the selection committee come November.

[Llamaguy]

Never said I was all those things.  Just asked why I couldn't be?  Check my post.

Or you could be a current 5th yr converted CNU LB who hasn't played a varsity down this year, has 24 carries for 60yrd in a career that included a 1 yd TD with 1:38 left in a 35-3 victory over Chowan in 2002. Or maybe not!

[Ralph Turner]

With the Bridgewater loss, we have seen conventional wisdom thrown out the window!

I am waiting until after week #9 now.

We have also 3 "pool B's" that are contending for slots:  Wesley, CNU and an "undefeated" Carnegie Mellon.

We also may have more than 8 bids out of the South Region which will cause some shifting.

[Ryan Tipps]

Here is the hypothetical.  CNU goes 8 - 1 in region and BC goes 9 - 1 in region.  Who would get the playoff bid and why?  Strength of schedule is on CNU's side and Margin of Victory and Playoff presidence is on BC side.  What is more important?

Even if this scenario (CNU losses to Averett; BC wins out) did happen, aren't the odds heavily in favor that both teams would get a Pool C bid? Since the expanded playoffs, when was the last time a 9-1 team outside of the NEFC actually missed going to the playoffs? And I think a CNU team with only one in-region loss is pretty much guaranteed a Pool C bid. I might be wrong, but I see both teams as being shoo-ins.

The complications will likely be fueled once it comes time to seed these teams.

But the season is far from over, and a lot can happen...

[Llamaguy]

Here is the hypothetical.  CNU goes 8 - 1 in region and BC goes 9 - 1 in region.  Who would get the playoff bid and why?  Strength of schedule is on CNU's side and Margin of Victory and Playoff presidence is on BC side.  What is more important?

Even if this scenario (CNU losses to Averett; BC wins out) did happen, aren't the odds heavily in favor that both teams would get a Pool C bid? Since the expanded playoffs, when was the last time a 9-1 team outside of the NEFC actually missed going to the playoffs? And I think a CNU team with only one in-region loss is pretty much guaranteed a Pool C bid. I might be wrong, but I see both teams as being shoo-ins.

The complications will likely be fueled once it comes time to seed these teams.

But the season is far from over, and a lot can happen...

CNU may but I doubt BC would get in and it could be tight for CNU. Remember that the Pool C is for runners-up or worse of automatic bid conferences, independents, and any leftovers from the teams not getting one of four Pool B bid. Just a quick look at the standings, their are atleast 20 teams with 1 or 0 D3 regional losses. As I said 3-4 spots are already well on the way to be locked up. There could be as many as 8-10 teams with 1 regional loss at the close of the season. Those 8-10 will be vying for 7 spots and that is assuming one of the undefeated conference leaders doesn't lose their conference to a 2 regional loss team and back into one of Pool C spots.

[Ryan Tipps]

CNU may but I doubt BC would get in and it could be tight for CNU. Remember that the Pool C is for runners-up or worse of automatic bid conferences, independents, and any leftovers from the teams not getting one of four Pool B bid. Just a quick look at the standings, their are atleast 20 teams with 1 or 0 D3 regional losses. As I said 3-4 spots are already well on the way to be locked up. There could be as many as 8-10 teams with 1 regional loss at the close of the season. Those 8-10 will be vying for 7 spots and that is assuming one of the undefeated conference leaders doesn't lose their conference to a 2 regional loss team and back into one of Pool C spots.

I still think BC would have a spot in the playoffs because a 9-1 record overall is pretty tough to ignore. I realize that their nonconference SOS isn't all that wonderful, but it's still a solid record. And CNU gets in on the merits of the big win against UMHB and a good win against Salisbury.

There are lots of teams out there that look good on paper at this point in the season, but I think the list will be considerably pared down once Week 11 is over. In this guy's opinion, BC and CNU would both have a spot if all of these "ifs" and "assumptions" fall into place.

[Llamaguy]

Unless alot of teams lose BC will not get the Pool C.

One loss is one loss and as long as there are 8-10 teams in that position BC will be on the outside looking in.

BC has tradition but tradition doesn't count in the selections although it can help with seeding once you are in. (unspoken though)

BC has:

• no wins over regionally ranked opponents
• a lower QOWI than other 1 loss teams
• no wins against other regionally ranked teams

*Insert weak schedule comments here*

BC has had two hitches this year, 1) they had no way of knowing McDaniel & Ferrum would be this bad this year, 2) they have not taken care of their own business against Guilford.

BC's best bet for the playoffs is with a W&L win next week and a showdown at Jopson Field for the ODAC Championship provided the winner of that game wins out.

[Pat Coleman]

Ehh, no offense, but McDaniel has been headed this way for a long time. I'll definitely grant Ferrum but McDaniel should not be a surprise.

[Llamaguy]

Ehh, no offense, but McDaniel has been headed this way for a long time. I'll definitely grant Ferrum but McDaniel should not be a surprise.

Not 2-8 or 3-7 bad! Yes they are no longer a regional power but they have been a .500 team or better since they started playing BC. I was refering to BC's QOWI being less than normal because Ferrum & McDaniel are less than .333 teams this year. I do respect your opinion that they aren't as good as they used to be though.

[Hug]

A question for Pat, or anybody who wants to take a crack at it.

Why would the Hardin-Simmons vs. UW-Stevens-Point game be in-region
while the CNU vs. Rowan game be out-of-region

[Ron Boerger]

b/c the NCAA is stupid?   

Seriously, they changed the rules this season so that the teams in the West and (at least some) South could play each other and be "in-region," b/c they have a hard time finding enough in-region teams to put together a non-conference schedule.  They did it on a state-by-state basis.

The fact that the geographic distances for "in-region" are now totally out of whack between regions as a result apparently didn't seem important to the committee.

[Bill McCabe]

Ron, If Sul Ross were to win out and beat HSU, do they have a shot at a Pool C?