South Region playoffs

Llamaguy · October 25, 2006, 01:44:12 PM

Quote from: kickerdad on October 25, 2006, 01:36:38 PM
I guess everybody is writting off Averett even though they haven't even taken the field yet against CNU. I hope everyone who has penciled CNU
in as the USAC rep. doesn't have to eat any crow. I know we are the
underdogs and even a lose to CNU won't make this season a bad one.

I just hope Averett is able to show the conference and everyone else
what they really have (18 or 19 Seniors and about the same number in
1st, 2nd and Honorable mention All Conference players from last year) and they only need to get all the "T" crossed and I's Dotted at the same time. As I mentioned on one of the other post earlier, if Averett ever hits full
throttle this year, someone better watch out. I hope Averett and CNU both
go into the Nov 4th game undefeated in the Conference.

No write off here! Actually it would be better for the USAC if Averett does beat CNU and two USAC teams make the playoffs. I doubt CNU85 likes that logic though!

Bill McCabe · October 25, 2006, 05:22:20 PM

Llamaguy, if Averett beats CNU, would CNU still get a Pool C?

Llamaguy · October 25, 2006, 09:40:00 PM

Quote from: Bill McCabe on October 25, 2006, 05:22:20 PM
Llamaguy, if Averett beats CNU, would CNU still get a Pool C?

Absolutely! They would be right with a one loss in region HSU team. Their QOWI would still be @ 10.00 which is I'm sure in the top 5 of the Pool C candidates nationwide. The only way CNU doesn't get in is to lose 2 of their final games. A good position to be in for sure.

Eh-You · October 25, 2006, 10:33:06 PM

[[/quote]

Absolutely! They would be right with a one loss in region HSU team. Their QOWI would still be @ 10.00 which is I'm sure in the top 5 of the Pool C candidates nationwide. The only way CNU doesn't get in is to lose 2 of their final games. A good position to be in for sure.
[/quote]

Seems like a no brainer to me - CNU should just let Averett win!

K-Mack · October 28, 2006, 11:21:33 PM

Quote from: Bill McCabe on October 25, 2006, 05:22:20 PM
Llamaguy, if Averett beats CNU, would CNU still get a Pool C?

Not after today. CNU is Pool A or bust at this point, I believe.

The South Region is not looking very strong anymore beyond the top teams, although we know CNU can stick with UMHB.

A rough guess:

Dickinson at Wesley
W&L/E&H/Guilford at CNU/Averett
Carnegie Mellon at UMHB
Hardin-Simmons at Trinity (Texas)

or

Dickinson at Wesley
CNU/Averett at Carnegie Mellon
W&L/E&H/Guilford at UMHB
Hardin-Simmons at Trinity

Toby Taff · October 28, 2006, 11:23:48 PM

K Mack,

Did you get to take a tour of campus today? If so What'd you think?

Josh Bowerman · October 28, 2006, 11:32:32 PM

Keith, I'm not sure the South Region was ever really that strong outside of the top three, maybe four teams. Still stronger than the East, tho'.

Ron Boerger · October 28, 2006, 11:47:38 PM

Quote from: K-Mack on October 28, 2006, 11:21:33 PM
The South Region is not looking very strong anymore beyond the top teams, although we know CNU can stick with UMHB.

Well, Keith, since there's no smiley here, don't you think that the two teams' relative performance since their matchup in week 2 proves that CNU basically was lucky to catch UMHB flatfooted? I mean, just look at today's results ... UMHB keeps the #2 team's offense out of the end zone all day, while CNU gives up 46 to a .500 team that's going nowhere.

You've been on the NU bandwagon all year based on that performance in Week 2. They've done nothing to impress since (or before). I'll take two loss UMHB over two loss CNU in a walk any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Bill McCabe · October 29, 2006, 07:59:59 AM

It seems to me that each year all of the regions aren't really that strong after the top 2 or 3 teams. Every year there are a lot of lopsided scores.

Bill McCabe · October 29, 2006, 08:00:48 AM

Is it possible that HSU will be ranked ahead of UMHB? 1 loss vs 2. How does head to head figure in this?

Llamaguy · October 29, 2006, 02:00:50 PM

Week #9 Comparison

* ranking will be based on current QOWI w/in each loss column
@ - indicates teams eligible for Pool B bids
( ) NCAA South Region Ranking for Week of 11/01/06

AFCA rankings updated 10/31/06

* D3 & AFCA rankings are not considered by the commitee during the selection process, they are only listed for informational purposes.

"0" SOUTH REGION LOSS TEAMS w/ (regional w/l) (overall w/l) QOWI

1. WESLEY @ (#1) (5-0) (8-0) 11.40 D3 #4 AFCA #4
2. CARN. MELLON @ (#5)   (7-0) (8-0) 9.50

"1" SOUTH REGION LOSS TEAMS

1. HARDIN-SIMMONS (#4) (6-1) (6-1) 11.14 D3 #7 AFCA #11
2. TRINITY (#2) (7-1) (7-1) 10.38 D3 #23    AFCA #17
3. DICKINSON (#6) (7-1) (7-1) 9.86
4. CNU (#8) (6-1) (6-2) 9.43
WASH & JEFF @ (#7) (6-1) (7-1) 9.43 D3 #25 AFCA #25

"2" SOUTH REGION LOSS TEAMS

1. UMHB (#3) (6-2) (6-2) 11.00 D3 #6 AFCA #14
2. SUL ROSS STATE (4-2) (5-2) 9.50
3. AVERETT (#9)    (6-2) (6-2) 9.00
WASH & LEE (#10) (6-2) (6-2) 9.00
5. BRIDGEWATER (6-2) (6-2) 8.63
6. URSINUS (4-2) (6-2) 7.83

* Once a team has more than 2 losses in region they will drop from consideration as the season progresses. Note: Pool A (automatic qualifiers) will throw "a wrench" into the number of spots available in the South Region.

Total spots available in the DIII Playoff Field = 32. 21 Pool A "automatic qualifiers"; 4 Pool B, and 7 Pool C qualifiers, nationwide.

South Region (Pool A) Berths (Conference Champions w/ Auto-bids)

American Southwest Conference - UMHB
Centennial Conference - Dickinson
Old Dominion Athletic Conference - Washington & Lee
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference -
USA South Athletic Conference -

* conference champions to be updated once official

Note: To take a look at the nationwide list of Pool C contenders refer to the Pool C -- 2006 thread on the General Football Post Patterns board.

Bill McCabe · October 29, 2006, 06:29:26 PM

Llamaguy, how do you see HSU and UMHB being seeded? QOWI is not the only criteria, correct? Wesley will be the #1 seed unless there is a huge upset. HSU and UMHB 2nd and 3rd.

Llamaguy · October 29, 2006, 07:39:38 PM

Quote from: Bill McCabe on October 29, 2006, 06:29:26 PM
Llamaguy, how do you see HSU and UMHB being seeded? QOWI is not the only criteria, correct? Wesley will be the #1 seed unless there is a huge upset. HSU and UMHB 2nd and 3rd.

Right now I would say it would be a toss up between UMHB,HSU, and Trinity if they can beat Millsaps. UMHB has 2 in-region losses to good teams but beat HSU head-to-head. HSU has a win against Linfield who may also be in the playoffs. I would say it could go either way. Remember though that seedings don't mean a lot other than probable home field in the second round. It will be interesting to see which way the committee goes.

Bill McCabe · October 29, 2006, 08:13:49 PM

It's fun to suppose about how the teams will be seeded, but it still comes down to winning your games. I'm looking forward to the playoffs.

Ralph Turner · October 29, 2006, 10:32:41 PM

Quote from: Bill McCabe on October 29, 2006, 08:13:49 PM
It's fun to suppose about how the teams will be seeded, but it still comes down to winning your games. I'm looking forward to the playoffs.

Bill, I am still an advocate of head-to-head and common opponents.

TLU beat Trinity and lost to UMHB. They play HSU this week.

As for QOWI, the value of the (7-3) loss by UMHB to UWW was worth 6 QOWI points.
The 49-17 HSU win over UW-SP is worth 10 points, but only if they win one of their next 2 games. That value may fluctuate.

As for UMHB staying #6, what would you expect if #2 beat #6 by 4 points? I agree with the props you sent their way!