South Region playoffs

Ralph Turner · October 21, 2007, 10:58:37 AM

Quote from: Llamaguy on October 21, 2007, 10:16:44 AM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 18, 2007, 12:24:46 PM
Quote from: Josh Bowerman on October 18, 2007, 12:23:57 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 18, 2007, 11:37:33 AM
http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/10/18/Strength+of+schedule

Strength of Schedule numbers are out.

Shesh. And this is supposed to be easier than QOWI?

No, just more meaningful.

I don't agree, at least not across the board. Mount Union is ranked #207 and they play in the OAC. I know the number will go up in future weeks but the OAC as a conference is better than those numbers. Period!

Llamaguy, you are seeing the impact of the in-region records (last week) of Averett (0-6), Otterbein (3-3), Muskingum (0-6), Heidelberg (2-4), ONU (4-2) and Wilmington (1-5).

Also, MUC is catching the statistical "whammy" of being at the bottom of the downside of the distribution curve before it really flattens out with some of the weaker teams. MUC doesn't get to count its game with MUC in its stat, as Capital and Otterbein do.

The Averett game is what really hurts MUC. As I look at MUC's calculation, the OWP is .333 (10-20) Averett is winless (0-6). If Averett's only loss is to MUC and they are (5-1), that raises the OWP to 15-15 (.500), which is good for a tie for 113th/114th where Central and UMHB are, and about where a statistician would predict for a 230-team sample size.

These changes will ameliorate themselves to some degree, but the Averett game is the one that hurts them most.

Llamaguy · October 21, 2007, 12:27:21 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 21, 2007, 10:58:37 AM
Quote from: Llamaguy on October 21, 2007, 10:16:44 AM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 18, 2007, 12:24:46 PM
Quote from: Josh Bowerman on October 18, 2007, 12:23:57 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 18, 2007, 11:37:33 AM
http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/10/18/Strength+of+schedule

Strength of Schedule numbers are out.

Shesh. And this is supposed to be easier than QOWI?

No, just more meaningful.

I don't agree, at least not across the board. Mount Union is ranked #207 and they play in the OAC. I know the number will go up in future weeks but the OAC as a conference is better than those numbers. Period!
Llamaguy, you are seeing the impact of the in-region records (last week) of Averett (0-6), Otterbein (3-3), Muskingum (0-6), Heidelberg (2-4), ONU (4-2) and Wilmington (1-5).

Also, MUC is catching the statistical "whammy" of being at the bottom of the downside of the distribution curve before it really flattens out with some of the weaker teams. MUC doesn't get to count its game with MUC in its stat, as Capital and Otterbein do.

The Averett game is what really hurts MUC. As I look at MUC's calculation, the OWP is .333 (10-20) Averett is winless (0-6). If Averett's only loss is to MUC and they are (5-1), that raises the OWP to 15-15 (.500), which is good for a tie for 113th/114th where Central and UMHB are, and about where a statistician would predict for a 230-team sample size.

These changes will ameliorate themselves to some degree, but the Averett game is the one that hurts them most.

How right you are my friend! Bridgewater is in the same boat as LaGrange will most likely finish 0-10, Shenandoah 1-9, and McDaniel 1-9. Two of those teams were in the playoffs just a few years ago. Word is BC is picking up Averret to replace McDaniel and possibly Frostburg to replace LaGrange, not sure that will help much next year. $:-\$

CNU85, swing away!

Pat Coleman · October 21, 2007, 12:31:59 PM

Those two teams have two winning seasons in the past six. It's time to give up the spin.

Llamaguy · October 21, 2007, 12:36:36 PM

Huge games with Playoff implications nationwide next weekend:

Salisbury vs. Wesley
Wabash vs. Wooster
Capital vs. Mt Union
UW-Whitewater vs. UMHB
Muhlenburg vs. Dickinson
W&J vs. Waynesburg
Curry vs. Nichols
Occidental vs. Cal Lutheran
Millsaps vs. Trinity
Mt. St. Joseph vs. Defiance
Coast Guard vs. Maine Maritime
New Jersey vs. Cortland St.
CNU vs. North Carolina Wesleyan

Call it Separation Saturday,if you win you are one step closer to getting in, lose and you may be home watching. Three great weeks of football remaining.

I will be posting the South Region Playoff watch for the first time this year on Wednesday. Its going to be a wild and bumpy ride.

Llamaguy · October 21, 2007, 12:45:58 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2007, 12:31:59 PM
Those two teams have two winning seasons in the past six. It's time to give up the spin.

LOL! No spin needed as one may soon join the ODAC so we would be stuck with them anyway. How about BC picks CNU back up?

It is what it is. I still think it will be interesting to see how the committee uses the new formula. You surely can't defend to me that Washington University has the 56th strongest schedule in D-III, can you?

The power conferences(ie. WIAC) beat themselves up playing tough teams in conference. Looks to me the way to go is to be in "middle of the road conference" (ie. HCAC) and schedule one or 2 teams you know will be around .500 or better and 1 powerhouse you know you will lose to but will get you a 10-0 owp.

Ralph Turner · October 21, 2007, 01:07:29 PM

Actually, the OWP is a more precise version of the QOWI. The QOWI "modulated" the opponents' winning percentage into four strata of percentages, then win and lose, and home and away to give the 16 levels of distinction, on a 0 to 15 scale, as opposed to 1001 levels of distinction between .000 and 1.000.

It is the OOWP that is really new, and is dervied from the OWP calculations.

The secret to having a good OWP and OOWP is what the UAA and the NESCAC schools have done so well. Find beatable teams that will be above average in less than the toughest conferences and then work from there.

Wash StL is strategically located in the South Football Region and Region #4 Adminstrative Region and in the 4-member UAA. They can cherry-pick the 7 non-conference games from teams in IL, WI and into the South Region that will give them the best chance at a Pool B bid. The OOWP might be brought done a little, if the more mediocre teams in that opponent's conference were getting slammed.

However, we have seen this formula play out this way in NESCAC hoops for years.

PA_wesleyfan · October 21, 2007, 02:05:15 PM

Frostburg only has 4 region games this year and that's if Westminster counts. But I guess 0-4 is the same as 0-7 except for oowp. And the only team that benefits is a team they beat in Randolph- Macon

Ralph Turner · October 21, 2007, 02:23:57 PM

Quote from: PA_wesleyfan on October 21, 2007, 02:05:15 PM
Frostburg only has 4 region games this year and that's if Westminster counts. But I guess 0-4 is the same as 0-7 except for oowp. And the only team that benefits is a team they beat in Randolph- Macon

That is an in-region game, because both teams are in the South Evaluation Region.

Llamaguy · October 24, 2007, 03:00:27 AM

Week #8 Comparison

* ranking will be based on current (OWP) "opponent's winning %" w/in each loss column
@ - indicates teams eligible for Pool B bids
( ) NCAA South Region Ranking released 10/24/07

AFCA rankings released 10/23/07

* D3 & AFCA rankings are not considered by the commitee during the selection process, they are only listed for informational purposes.

(OWP/OOWP) = opponents winning % / opponent's opponents winning % : which is a marker for the Strength of Schedule for each team. The higher the OWP the tougher the schedule. If 2 teams have a similar OWP then a higher OOWP suggests a tougher schedule. Thus it is a way to see which team may rate out higher in the selection committee's eyes for the Strength of Schedule portion of the primary section criteria for inclusion into the playoff field.

"0" SOUTH REGION LOSS TEAMS w/ (regional w/l) (overall w/l) (OWP/OOWP)

1. SALISBURY @ (3) (4-0) (8-0) (0.692 / 0.458) D3 #9 AFCA #8
2. UMHB (1) (7-0) (7-0) (0.531 / 0.525) D3 #2 AFCA #2
3. MUHLENBURG (5) (7-0) (7-0) (0.454 / 0.615) D3#20 AFCA#17
4. WASH & JEFFERSON (2) (4-0) (7-0) (0.407 / 0.619) D3#8 AFCA#7
5. WAYNESBURG (6) (6-0) (7-0) (0.369 / 0.551) AFCA#21

"1" SOUTH REGION LOSS TEAMS

1. WESLEY @ (4) (5-1) (7-1) (0.767 / 0.547) D3 #10 AFCA #11
2. WASHINGTON U. @ (9) (6-1) (6-1) (0.609 / 0.542)
3. MILLSAPS (7) (6-1) (6-1) (0.514 / 0.490) D3#24
4. TRINITY (TX) (8 )    (5-1) (6-1) (0.483 / 0.513) D3#19 AFCA#20
5. DICKINSON    (6-1) (6-1) (0.476 / 0.596)
6. RANDOLPH MACON    (6-1) (6-1) (0.433 / 0.649)
7. NC WESLEYAN (5-1) (5-2) (0.433 / 0.576)
8. BRIDGEWATER (10)    (6-1) (6-1) (0.407 / 0.564) AFCA #19
9. URSINUS (5-1) (6-1) (0.234 / 0.624)

"2" SOUTH REGION LOSS TEAMS

1. CNU (4-2) (5-2) (0.600 / 0.503)
2. RHODES (4-2) (5-2) (0.594 / 0.511)
3. HAMPDEN-SYDNEY (6-2) (6-2) (0.535 / 0.572)
4. DEPAUW (4-2) (5-2) (0.489 / 0.480)
5. WASH. & LEE (4-2) (4-2) (0.486 / 0.496)
6. MARYVILLE (5-2) (5-2) (0.476 / 0.471)
7. MISS. COLLEGE (5-2) (5-2) (0.446 / 0.553)
8. SUL ROSS ST. (4-2) (5-2) (0.434 / 0.510)
9. EAST TX BAPTIST (5-2) (5-3) (0.424 / 0.499)

* Once a team has more than 2 losses in region they will drop from consideration as the season progresses. Note: Pool A (automatic qualifiers) will throw "a wrench" into the number of spots available in the South Region.

Total spots available in the DIII Playoff Field = 32. 22 Pool A "automatic qualifiers"; 3 Pool B, and 7 Pool C qualifiers, nationwide.

South Region (Pool A) Berths (Conference Champions w/ Auto-bids)

American Southwest Conference -
Centennial Conference -
Old Dominion Athletic Conference -
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference -
USA South Athletic Conference -

* conference champions to be updated once official

Note: To take a look at the nationwide list of Pool C contenders refer to the Pool C -- 2007 thread on the General Football Post Patterns board.

Any corrections would be greatly appreciated.

Llamaguy · October 24, 2007, 03:11:46 AM

A few thoughts after compiling the info this year:

1. It will be interesting to see how the committee uses the Strength of Schedule vs. the Regional W/L record to decide the field. Will a 2-loss team with an above 0.600 OWP get in over a 1-loss team in the 0.400's? How much of % difference in OWP is really significant? - note this is one of many criteria but will potentially allow comparing apples to apples when evaluating a team's entire season.

2. I don't think other than CNU, that any of the current 2-loss teams have a great shot at getting in, but quite a few of the 1-loss teams have a high enough OWP that should they lose another game they may still be viewed stronger than some of the 1-loss teams with weaker schedules. That being said, there will be a lot of fluctuation in the OWP week to week so things could change fast. A good example is Linfield in Pool B, right now their OWP is decent but they play a zero and one win team in the final 3 weeks. Every team you have played affects your OWP number every week. Should be interesting to follow.

3. Within the next 2 weeks we will be able to weed out the South Region Pool C contenders and compare them nationally as more of the automatic bid conferences shake out. There will be a lot of movement with so many important games this weekend.

Matt Barnhart (kid) · October 24, 2007, 08:59:52 AM

Llama,

Well done, my friend. Very informative.

Like you said, this weekend will probably shorten and strengthen this list.

Should be a fun one!

HunterT · October 26, 2007, 07:10:03 PM

Llama, that's pretty impressive stats there.

Only one question... Where's Rhodes? they're only a 2 loss team at this point.

I understand that they don't have a good shot at a playoff bid unless an earthquake causes football to become extinct at Millsaps and Trinity, but I would love to see their stats in that breakdown.

Llamaguy · October 26, 2007, 08:51:28 PM

Quote from: HunterT on October 26, 2007, 07:10:03 PM
Llama, that's pretty impressive stats there.

Only one question... Where's Rhodes? they're only a 2 loss team at this point.

I understand that they don't have a good shot at a playoff bid unless an earthquake causes football to become extinct at Millsaps and Trinity, but I would love to see their stats in that breakdown.

Thanks for the heads up. They have been added.

HunterT · October 26, 2007, 09:04:26 PM

thanks. nice to see they slide in at #2 in the two loss teams.

Ralph Turner · October 27, 2007, 09:48:29 PM

Llama, let me scribble on the post...

Quote from: Llamaguy on October 24, 2007, 03:00:27 AM
Week #8 Comparison

* ranking will be based on current (OWP) "opponent's winning %" w/in each loss column
@ - indicates teams eligible for Pool B bids
( ) NCAA South Region Ranking released 10/24/07

AFCA rankings released 10/23/07

* D3 & AFCA rankings are not considered by the commitee during the selection process, they are only listed for informational purposes.

(OWP/OOWP) = opponents winning % / opponent's opponents winning % : which is a marker for the Strength of Schedule for each team. The higher the OWP the tougher the schedule. If 2 teams have a similar OWP then a higher OOWP suggests a tougher schedule. Thus it is a way to see which team may rate out higher in the selection committee's eyes for the Strength of Schedule portion of the primary section criteria for inclusion into the playoff field.

"0" SOUTH REGION LOSS TEAMS w/ (regional w/l) (overall w/l) (OWP/OOWP)

3. MUHLENBERG (5) (7-0) (7-0) (0.454 / 0.615) D3#20 AFCA#17
4. WASH & JEFFERSON (2) (4-0) (7-0) (0.407 / 0.619) D3#8 AFCA#7

"1" SOUTH REGION LOSS TEAMS

1. SALISBURY @ (3) (4-0) (8-0) (0.692 / 0.458) D3 #9 AFCA #8

2. UMHB (1) (7-0) (7-0) (0.531 / 0.525) D3 #2 AFCA #2

5. WAYNESBURG (6) (6-0) (7-0) (0.369 / 0.551) AFCA#21

1. WESLEY @ (4) (5-1) (7-1) (0.767 / 0.547) D3 #10 AFCA #11

4. TRINITY (TX) (8 ) (5-1) (6-1) (0.483 / 0.513) D3#19 AFCA#20

6. RANDOLPH MACON (6-1) (6-1) (0.433 / 0.649)
7. NC WESLEYAN (5-1) (5-2) (0.433 / 0.576)

9. URSINUS (5-1) (6-1) (0.234 / 0.624)

"2" SOUTH REGION LOSS TEAMS

2. WASHINGTON U. @ (9) (6-1) (6-1) (0.609 / 0.542)

3. MILLSAPS (7) (6-1) (6-1) (0.514 / 0.490) D3#24

5. DICKINSON (6-1) (6-1) (0.476 / 0.596)

8. BRIDGEWATER (10) (6-1) (6-1) (0.407 / 0.564) AFCA #19

~~1. CNU (4-2) (5-2) (0.600 / 0.503)~~
~~2. RHODES (4-2) (5-2) (0.594 / 0.511)~~
3. HAMPDEN-SYDNEY (6-2) (6-2) (0.535 / 0.572)
4. DEPAUW (4-2) (5-2) (0.489 / 0.480)
5. WASH. & LEE (4-2) (4-2) (0.486 / 0.496)
~~6. MARYVILLE (5-2) (5-2) (0.476 / 0.471)~~
7. MISS. COLLEGE (5-2) (5-2) (0.446 / 0.553)
~~8. SUL ROSS ST. (4-2) (5-2) (0.434 / 0.510)~~
~~9. EAST TX BAPTIST (5-2) (5-3) (0.424 / 0.499)~~

* Once a team has more than 2 losses in region they will drop from consideration as the season progresses. Note: Pool A (automatic qualifiers) will throw "a wrench" into the number of spots available in the South Region.

Total spots available in the DIII Playoff Field = 32. 22 Pool A "automatic qualifiers"; 3 Pool B, and 7 Pool C qualifiers, nationwide.

South Region (Pool A) Berths (Conference Champions w/ Auto-bids)

American Southwest Conference -
Centennial Conference -
Old Dominion Athletic Conference -
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference -
USA South Athletic Conference -

* conference champions to be updated once official

Note: To take a look at the nationwide list of Pool C contenders refer to the Pool C -- 2007 thread on the General Football Post Patterns board.

Any corrections would be greatly appreciated.

With two weeks left, the only hope for a 2-loss team is to win the conference!

I have not updated the season records.