South Region playoffs

[golden_dome]

Ralph,
   I have a question for you, or anyone else who might know. At what point would Mississippi College jump Millsaps for a Pool C bid since they have the head to head win. I know the criteria, but how close would the teams have to be for the regional committee to go to head to head and put the Choctaws up for the next bid ahead of the Majors.
   Another question which builds on that one. Would Millsaps' potential win next weekend at BSC not count toward their regional record since BSC is a provisional? That would give Mississippi College a better regional record as well with one more win and equal losses and close the current gap between the two teams.

[Carl Menist]

Ralph,
   I have a question for you, or anyone else who might know. At what point would Mississippi College jump Millsaps for a Pool C bid since they have the head to head win. I know the criteria, but how close would the teams have to be for the regional committee to go to head to head and put the Choctaws up for the next bid ahead of the Majors.
   Another question which builds on that one. Would Millsaps' potential win next weekend at BSC not count toward their regional record since BSC is a provisional? That would give Mississippi College a better regional record as well with one more win and equal losses and close the current gap between the two teams.

Chris - I wondered about the same thing. The head to head nod would clearly go to MC. I think the variance is in the OWP numbers - Millsaps is 54.1 or #62 whereas MC is 44.9 or #168.

I am not familiar with the details on teh BSC game and its effect in potentially benefiting MC in this case.

[golden_dome]

Carl,
     I know they look at it, but I don't know how close the teams have to be in the rankings to apply it. MC's opponent winning percentage is killing them this year primarily due to an out of conference game against winless LaGrange. Right now I am assuming MC is 11th in the region with the possibility of moving up as high as 8th in the final week if things were to go right.
     Let's say Millsaps ends the season 7th in the region and MC finished 9th, would they then look at head to head if MC has one more regional win? I think there is a chance Millsaps gets passed this week by a couple teams if the BSC game does not count toward their regional record, but I'm not sure about that.   
     But one reason I asked the question was this. I think Millsaps will at least be in the conversation for a Pool C bid, probably 5-6 national teams ahead of MC assuming MC wins this weekend. But would someone bring up the head to head criteria between the two teams which could keep both out?

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph,
   I have a question for you, or anyone else who might know. At what point would Mississippi College jump Millsaps for a Pool C bid since they have the head to head win. I know the criteria, but how close would the teams have to be for the regional committee to go to head to head and put the Choctaws up for the next bid ahead of the Majors?

Chris, I believe that a win over HSU vaults MissColl over Millsaps into the #5-#7 position.  Millsaps with 2 South Region losses would possibly be out of the Rankings because of one-loss Mississippi College being "in".

Miss Coll compared to Trinity:

In-region record: 9-1 vs. 8-1
Common opponents: Victories over Millsaps, ETBU and TLU for both teams.
Records versus Regionally Ranked teams: 0-1 vs 0-0.

I think that Miss College gets a Pool C bid.

   Another question which builds on that one. Would Millsaps' potential win next weekend at BSC not count toward their regional record since BSC is a provisional?  That would give Mississippi College a better regional record as well with one more win and equal losses and close the current gap between the two teams.

Right!  The BSC game doesn't count in South Region record or for primary criteria for Millsaps or Trinity

I think that the HSU loss knocked you out of a Pool C bid.

[Pat Coleman]

Ralph, I would agree with the notion that you could use the secondary criteria when comparing Salisbury and Waynesburg.  And only then if you found most other things to be relatively equal, which their in-region record will not be.

Waynesburg 7-1
Salisbury 5-1

They tend to treat these two numbers as equal, actually. Remember this is not a math problem.

[SaintsFAN]

It is surprising that they dropped Waynesburg for losing a game against a provisional D3 member.  ...

Ron, I have another theory on the use of Geneva in the evaluations.  They have been a reliable "yardstick" in the secondary criteria, playing as a first-year provisional in the Pres AC.  They provided "common-opponent" status for Salisbury, W&J and Waynesburg.

http://www.d3football.com/school_info.php?year=2007&school=Geneva

Especially since Geneva's Head Coach is....

*2nd Winningest Coach in Western Pennsylvania
*Among top five winningest coaches in the state of Pennsylvania
*Among the top ten winningest coaches in the states of
Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia

**taken from Geneva website

[Bob.Gregg]

Remember this is not a math problem.

EXACTLY.  You have just spoken the exact point I have been trying to make.

It's not a math problem.  Otherwise, we'd just have the computer do it. But Humans are involved, weighing criteria and assigning subjective value to things on the board, and in the mind.

Thank you, d3football.com guru.

[Pat Coleman]

Yeah -- the fact that it's not a math problem is the only spot where we agree. I can still point to criteria that support my point and you are pointing to human subjectivity.

[Carl Menist]

Pat / Wes / Ralph et al ---

Just left the following post at the projected brackets. Would be interested, as i think others with teams including in the rankings with the following copied from that post -

Pat - Thanks for your follow-up.

If you have time and this is a fair question - How do the 12 teams including in the rankings this week stack up? In other words, in yur view, who is #8 through #19 on the Pool C pecking order at this point?

Also, is the most significant secondary factor to OWP geography in most cases? Just trying to understand.

Thanks.

[Ralph Turner]

It is surprising that they dropped Waynesburg for losing a game against a provisional D3 member.  ...

Ron, I have another theory on the use of Geneva in the evaluations.  They have been a reliable "yardstick" in the secondary criteria, playing as a first-year provisional in the Pres AC.  They provided "common-opponent" status for Salisbury, W&J and Waynesburg.

http://www.d3football.com/school_info.php?year=2007&school=Geneva

Especially since Geneva's Head Coach is....

*2nd Winningest Coach in Western Pennsylvania
*Among top five winningest coaches in the state of Pennsylvania
*Among the top ten winningest coaches in the states of
Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia

**taken from Geneva website***

***
none of which count one iota in the eyes of the committee.

[Ralph Turner]

Pat / Wes / Ralph et al ---

Just left the following post at the projected brackets. Would be interested, as i think others with teams including in the rankings with the following copied from that post -

Pat - Thanks for your follow-up.

If you have time and this is a fair question - How do the 12 teams including in the rankings this week stack up? In other words, in yur view, who is #8 through #19 on the Pool C pecking order at this point?

Also, is the most significant secondary factor to OWP geography in most cases? Just trying to understand.

Thanks.

Carl, having followed Pat's projections for 6-7 years, I will defer to his knowledge (and his sources).

My "what if's" in these matters come down to looking at the game that you shouldn't have lost.  I really don't think that there are more than one team per region that is left "waiting at the alter, all dressed up and bouquet in hand,"  five teams at most.

The remaining "Regionally Ranked Teams" just help the coach's resume.  However, the final rankings are never released, like the D-1 coach who won the Furniture Bowl and finished #25 in the USA Today Top 25.

[Bob.Gregg]

I think it's pretty cut-and-dry this year...

Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC Champion) (Pool A)
Muhlenberg (CC Champion) (Pool A)
North Carolina Wesleyan (USAC Champion) (Pool A)
R-MC or H-SC (ODAC Champion) (Pool A)
Trinity or Millsaps (SCAC Champion) (Pool A)
Washington & Jefferson (PAC Champion) (Pool A)
Wesley (Pool B)
Salisbury (Pool B/C)

I think Muhlenberg gets the #1 seed in the East....And to answer the first question that will come out of that, the Mules beat the East's #1 team--New Jersey, AT New Jersey...

And Muhlenberg owns a win against one of the LL's co-leaders...

[Carl Menist]

Pat / Wes / Ralph et al ---

Just left the following post at the projected brackets. Would be interested, as i think others with teams including in the rankings with the following copied from that post -

Pat - Thanks for your follow-up.

If you have time and this is a fair question - How do the 12 teams including in the rankings this week stack up? In other words, in yur view, who is #8 through #19 on the Pool C pecking order at this point?

Also, is the most significant secondary factor to OWP geography in most cases? Just trying to understand.

Thanks.

Carl, having followed Pat's projections for 6-7 years, I will defer to his knowledge (and his sources).

My "what if's" in these matters come down to looking at the game that you shouldn't have lost.  I really don't think that there are more than one team per region that is left "waiting at the alter, all dressed up and bouquet in hand,"  five teams at most.

The remaining "Regionally Ranked Teams" just help the coach's resume.  However, the final rankings are never released, like the D-1 coach who won the Furniture Bowl and finished #25 in the USA Today Top 25.

Thanks Ralph. So with regard to Millsaps, it should be one of the 4 or 5 by virtue of it being the first south team not including in Pat's bracket?

Following is a post i just sent to Josh, You have answered the question with your above comments. any futher thoughts from you or others would be of interest.

To Josh -

It's 'Galactic Overlord', yessir.  Get it right.  

I personally find a lot to question in the picks posted in the Daily Dose.  They assume that SOS isn't going to weigh as heavily into the Pool C discussion as I personal think it will.

Josh - will you take a look at my question over on the playoff post, out at Pat's projection.

I certainly Have a high regard for pat's insight, but I really expected the SOS to be a little more heavily weighted.

I thought that several of the one loss west teams would lose this week-end( duh because they are playing head to head) and that that would be a benifit to 2 loss teams wit pretty good SOSs. based on my spread of the Pool B canidates, Millsaps is number 6 per my assumptions / spreadwith a couple of teams with higher SOS'
s just above them that have fairly tough games this week-end they might lose - Capital, North central / Carthage, Hobart and Hartwick. Hartwick is at 7 just behind Millsaps on my list with a 53.5 OWP versus 54.1 for Millsaps.

Thanks,

Carl

PS - Ralph --- a heads up that something must be wrong with the site --- I just noticed that my Karma is up to zero? FYI.

[Ralph Turner]

Carl, with respect to SOS, I see these problems in D3 Football.

1)  Few to no inter-region games like D-1 to give common opponents (by definition).
2)  Too few non-conference opponents to impact the conference's SOS in the 9-team and 10-team conferences.
3)  Deliberate avoidance of any contribution that non-D3 opponents might make to the calculation. (By definition.)
4)  A really small "n" compared to D-1 Football and even D-3 Hoops and Baseball.
5)  I have not even seen the confidence intervals that would accompany the calculations of the index.

[Pat Coleman]

Pat / Wes / Ralph et al ---

Just left the following post at the projected brackets. Would be interested, as i think others with teams including in the rankings with the following copied from that post -

Pat - Thanks for your follow-up.

If you have time and this is a fair question - How do the 12 teams including in the rankings this week stack up? In other words, in yur view, who is #8 through #19 on the Pool C pecking order at this point?

Also, is the most significant secondary factor to OWP geography in most cases? Just trying to understand.

Thanks.

I saw your question on the blog but I don't go anywhere near that deep in my Pool C rankings.

Geography is not at all a factor for playoff selection.