South Region playoffs

[Ralph Turner]

With the win today improving Mississippi College's record to 8-2.  What are the chances that they make the playoffs? 

At this minute, I count 5 teams that have 1 in-region loss and going for Pool C bids.

I count 14 teams around the country that have 2 losses in-region and seem to be vying for the remaining 2 Pool C bids

If Miss College had beaten HSU, then they would have a Pool C bid.

[cgmatch]

Thanks Ralph.


Good luck Cru bring back a title to the ASC!

[Bob.Gregg]

All-in-One-Races is updated.

I've put all the conference races, key games, head-to-head tiebreakers, AQ berths, Pool B & C eligibles all in one place:

http://www.wjpa.com/All-in-One-Races.htm

Hope someone else finds this useful today...

[Just_that_kid]

Anyone notice the Millsaps scores lately? an asterisk loss and a miracle play.. 5 points from being 10-0? There's got to be a chance. This is one of the teams from the south that can make some real noise.

[Bob.Gregg]

The outcome of the last game in the SCIAC could have a huge impact on the evaluation of the last couple Pool C bids...

Here's what I've got in C so far...

Whitworth
St. John Fisher
St. John's
Mt. St. Joseph
Hobart

The SCIAC "Rose Bowl Rule" could throw two teams (Occidental & Redlands) into the "C" discussion, though strength of schedule may hold one or both out.  Redlands is #62 on the charts (.540 & .475). Occidental is #210 (ouch) (.395 & .507).

Right now, my last two C's are Wheaton & Wartburg, with Capital & Millsaps right there in the mix as well.

[Pat Coleman]

Anyone notice the Millsaps scores lately? an asterisk loss and a miracle play.. 5 points from being 10-0? There's got to be a chance.

That doesn't overly matter. Throwing away the opener is going to come back to haunt them.

[Carl Menist]

Anyone notice the Millsaps scores lately? an asterisk loss and a miracle play.. 5 points from being 10-0? There's got to be a chance.

That doesn't overly matter. Throwing away the opener is going to come back to haunt them.

Pat ---

I really appreciate all you and the D-3 staff do  and the wonderful website. It is after 11 EST on Saturday night.

There are lots of great teams close or real close to making the playoffs. Lots close or real close to staying home.

Just a humble request, if you don't want to put Millsaps in your final bracket, don't do it, but please refrain from the yeah but, shouldn't have stuff. Either the team is going to make it or not and it is ultimately not your call, you report on it.

Personally, I would like to see it come down to the objective numbers for Millsaps and the official results, no astericks.

Many of the other teams that are on the short list have comparable records, but some have very close wins to 500 teams at the end of the season or even one or two losses in a row. This can not be to their advantage.

It is interesting that when it is covenient to respond to questions about in or out projections / thinking for a particular team and the SOS or OWP is high or good for the team in question, that it is emphasized and pointed out as being the basis for the placement and when it is not convenient, the subjective flexibility of the decision process is suggested.

Put em in or put em out, but hold off on the what I see as a bit of a passive aggressive back handed slap at Millsaps.

I know I am tired and apologize if I offended you. Just make your decision tonight and wait for the announcement tomorrow. Cut them some slack in or out.

Thanks --- and thanks for an overall great year on the D-3 football site.

PS - Millsaps didn't play top 10 teams the last two weeks but weren't playing with children. bounced back pretty nicely froma tough tough loss and probably could have scored 100 in each of the last two games. --- It was 52-0 at halftime today. I don't think Millsaps  will embarass the  South if they are playing next week. Infact, may be a bad dream / night mare for a top seeded team to have to play in the first round?

[Pat Coleman]

If Millsaps fans don't ask for asterisks for their losses then I doubt anyone would say anything about the circumstances of the losses, Carl.

[Carl Menist]

If Millsaps fans don't ask for asterisks for their losses then I doubt anyone would say anything about the circumstances of the losses, Carl.

This one isn't and neither is the team!

On a different note --

Last year we got in with the big win over Trinity one the last game --- no news to you Pat. Becuase of the circunstances last year and my lack of familiarity with the process and sources for information, I didn't follow all the activity of teh last three or four weeks as the season wound down and pointed to the playoffs.

This year, it has really been an overall enlightening and impressive experience to watch activity around the nation and begin to more fullyappreciate the breath, depth and many quality teams and schools across the country involved in Division III football. There are allot of great teams.

The overall experience at Millsaps is awesome and I am sure an experience that is replicated all around the country.

Good stuff.

May not be a good participant in all this because I get frustrated with what I feel to be negative comments pointed towards the kids and the coaches doing a good work. I know I respond adversarily at times, but it really bugs me. I try to never demean or put down other teams and thier efforts. It is the people (posters) making poorly thought out and less than constructive comments that I lose my tolerance with.

[Ralph Turner]

Carl, the Millsaps-Miss College game spurred more postings on a relative basis (number of posts, number of "new post responses", sustained posting on a board previously "dormant", number of new posters who joined the conversation, degree of sustained quality posting, shift in dominance of the board from one school to another, etc.) than I can remember in the last 7 years.

The tumbleweeds would blow down the main street of the SCAC Message Board between non-Trinity posts, until that game.  That game also encapsuled the slim margin that is the difference between an at-large bid and sitting home in D3.  Most D-3 fans do not comprehend how truly finite 7 at-large bids for a field of 200+ schools is.  The early posts on the SCAC board by experienced posters recognized that fact and called so quickly and so accurately, that it affected the entire D3 season.

The Oxy loss at Whittier is making the Pool C bid more interesting, and brings Millsaps that much closer to edge of getting a bid.  Off-season reflection in the weight room in Jackson will dwell on that game.

There is no doubt about it!

[Carl Menist]

Carl, the Millsaps-Miss College game spurred more postings on a relative basis (number of posts, number of "new post responses", sustained posting on a board previously "dormant", number of new posters who joined the conversation, degree of sustained quality posting, shift in dominance of the board from one school to another, etc.) than I can remember in the last 7 years.

The tumbleweeds would blow down the main street of the SCAC Message Board between non-Trinity posts, until that game.  That game also encapsuled the slim margin that is the difference between an at-large bid and sitting home in D3.  Most D-3 fans do not comprehend how truly finite 7 at-large bids for a field of 200+ schools is.  The early posts on the SCAC board by experienced posters recognized that fact and called so quickly and so accurately, that it affected the entire D3 season.

The Oxy loss at Whittier is making the Pool C bid more interesting, and brings Millsaps that much closer to edge of getting a bid.  Off-season reflection in the weight room in Jackson will dwell on that game.

There is no doubt about it!

Don't know what more could be done in the weight room and how the guys there can kick themselves with regard to what you are referring to. Bid or no bid, I think if there has been any reflection it has been a little further upstairs and appropriate decisions will be made on a go forward basis to minimize the chance of it happening again if fortunate enough to be in  the same position in the future.

Pat obviously has a basis for his final projections and he is probably on point.

I cetainly understand the priniciple of winning every game you can, but I would think a committee comparing 10 or 12 good teams for 7 spots would closely review and put weight on actual schedule details when camparing i and 2 loss teams and look less favorably on teams with records that  include losses to teams well below 500 and very close games to 500 and below teams --- examples follow ----

Hartwick  - 8-2 record

9/1/07 Loss to (3-7) Western New England
11/3/07 Close win to (4-6) Springfield
11/10/07 Quadruple OT win over (3-7) Utica

Capital - 8-2 record

10/20/07 Loss to (5-5) Otterbein
11/3/07 Tight win over (0-10) Muskingum
11/10/07 Tight win over (6-4) Baldwin Wallace

Whitworth - 8-2 record

9/22/07  Close win over (4-6) UW Stout
10/27/07 Close win over (4-6) Williamette

It seems that close losses  to 9-1 or 8-2 teams would be perceived more positively than losses to sub 500 teams. Same goes with close wins. Better to have your close wins to other teams wih strong record versus sub 500 and no win teams.

If that is considered, the teams above included in Pat's final projection could have some exposure?

[Ralph Turner]

Please remember that losses (and all games , for that matter) to teams below .500 are reflected in the OWP and the OOWP.

A win is a win.  No margin of victory is considered.  From reviewing the criteria in multiple D3 sports, the Championship Committee doesn't want to go there, which means, running up the score doesn't help with the Selection Committee.

Following Coach DuBose's system, the system is that any Millsaps Major had better be ready to play whenever he steps on the field.  The "short term" setback was that the "third stringers" who "lost it" back in the Aug 2007 know that they had better be prepared in November 2008.  The "long term" benefit is the work ethic that his system puts into the culture of the DuBose's Majors' teams and how hard the 70th and the 80th player on the roster will work in the off-season.   The peer pressure by the half dozen friends of the star player on the star is that the star player has to work harder so as not to incur the wrath of his half-dozen friends who aren't as talented as he.

I saw this phenomenon work at Lake Highlands HS in their decade of the 1990's.

[Ralph Turner]

Concerning your examples...

Capital vs. Otterbein -- Cross-town rivals in Columbus OH in the OAC.

Hartwick -- Ugly loss to WNE almost knocks them out of the playoffs.

Whitworth -- Close win over UW-Stout is a great win.  Any win over the WIAC is viewed as a great win.  The WIAC is probably #1, the OAC is #2 in the nation as a conference.

[frank_ezelle]

Following Coach DuBose's system, the system is that any Millsaps Major had better be ready to play whenever he steps on the field.  The "short term" setback was that the "third stringers" who "lost it" back in the Aug 2007 know that they had better be prepared in November 2008.  The "long term" benefit is the work ethic that his system puts into the culture of the DuBose's Majors' teams and how hard the 70th and the 80th player on the roster will work in the off-season.   The peer pressure by the half dozen friends of the star player on the star is that the star player has to work harder so as not to incur the wrath of his half-dozen friend who aren't as talented as he.

Ralph, I wish I could have summed up my comments that well back in early September.  Coach DuBose has clearly stated that he wants to build a program at Millsaps and I think he takes a long term approach in some of his decisions.  He said at last year's banquet for the Millsaps senior athletes that he would like to have at least 20-25 seniors leaving the program each year instead of the 6 he had in 2006.  The 2007 team has 12 seniors and with 22 juniors on the roster this season, there should be even more seniors on the 2008 team. 

The success at Millsaps over the last two seasons, 12-1 in the SCAC with an outright championship and a co-championship, makes people forget that these have been rebuilding years at Millsaps.  The 2005 team was 2-7 and those two wins were both 1-point victories.  It's reasonable to think that these two seasons have just been the groundwork for bigger and better things.

Frank.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Regarding the mention of Hartwick and Capital above...

Hartwick has an automatic as champion of the Empire 8, so they are obviously in anyway.  You mention their close calls against teams with poor records - OK (admittedly, their opening loss to Western New England is probably the most puzzling result of the entire D-3 season).  But don't forget that they have defeated last year's national semifinalist and current top 10 team St. John Fisher.  They deserve their spot.

Capital deserves to go as well.  In the past decade, the OAC runner-up has always performed very well in the playoffs - almost always winning until they run into their own Mount Union, who everyone has trouble beating.  I would be very surprised if the OAC runner-up is ever left out of the playoffs given their track record of tremendous playoff success.

Millsaps, despite having a terrific season, quite simply does not deserve to go to the playoffs; they failed to win their automatic and their conference is not strong enough to merit a second bid.  The SCAC has not had any recent playoff success.  I don't think an SCAC team has won a playoff game since 2002 Trinity.  They shouldn't be a two-bid league until they prove they have two teams that are capable of competing on the national scale.