South Region playoffs

Llamaguy · October 25, 2005, 12:29:22 PM

Week #8 Comparison

* ranking will be based on current QOWI w/in each loss column
@ - indicates teams eligible for Pool B bids

NCAA South Regional Top 10 will be updated when released on Wednesday.

"0" D-III LOSS TEAMS with (overall w/l) (regional w/l) QOWI

1. TRINITY (6-0) (5-0) 12.40 D3 #9    AFCA #6
2. THIEL @ (7-0) (7-0) 11.43 D3 #18     AFCA #20
3. JOHNS HOPKINS (7-0) (6-0) 11.17   AFCA #16
4. FERRUM (7-0) (6-0) 10.33 AFCA#25

"1" D-III LOSS TEAMS

1. SALISBURY @ (6-1) (2-0) 13.50 D3 #17
2. WESLEY @ (7-1) (4-0) 12.50
3. HARDIN-SIMMONS (6-1) (5-1) 10.33 D3 #10 AFCA #12
4. UMHB (5-1) (4-1) 10.00 D3# 5 AFCA #7
5. BRIDGEWATER (5-1) (4-1) 9.00 D3 #20 AFCA #15
HUNTINGDON @ (5-1) (4-1) 9.00
7. WASH & JEFF @ (7-1) (5-1) 8.83 D3 # 15 AFCA #17
8. DEPAUW (5-1) (4-1) 8.60

"2" D-III LOSS TEAMS

1. HOWARD PAYNE (4-3) (4-2) 9.83
2. WASH & LEE (5-2) (4-2) 9.00
3. ETBU (4-3) (4-2) 8.83
4. HAMPDEN SYDNEY (5-2) (5-2) 8.71
5. METHODIST (5-2) (5-2) 8.43
6. CENTRE (6-2) (4-2) 8.17
7. THOMAS MORE @ (5-2) (5-2) 7.86
8. MCMURRY (5-2) (4-2) 7.83
9. CNU (4-3) (3-2) 7.60

* ETBU has 2 in region losses and 1 loss to a D-II team, thus in the NCAA's eyes, a (4-2) D-III record.

*CNU & HPU have 2 in region losses & stay on the board even with 3 total DIII losses.

* Once a team has more than 2 losses in region they will drop from consideration as the season progresses. Note: Pool A (automatic qualifiers) will throw "a wrench" into the number of spots available in the South Region. Total spots available in the DIII Playoff Field = 32.

South Region (Pool A) Berths (Conference Champions w/ Auto-bids)

American Southwest Conference -
Centennial Conference -
Old Dominion Athletic Conference -
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference -
USA South Athletic Conference -

* conference champions to be updated once official

Ralph Turner · October 25, 2005, 01:28:49 PM

Llamaguy, we may be able to cut that list in half after Saturday!

Bob.Gregg · October 25, 2005, 02:44:23 PM

Right on, Ralph!

Six games THIS WEEK matching teams from llamaguy's lists above:

Thomas More at Thiel
Salisbury at Wesley
Hardin-Simmons at McMurry
E.Texas Baptist at Mary Hardin Baylor
Bridgewater at Washington & Lee
Centre at DePauw

November 5th has three more:

Johns Hopkins at Hampden-Sydney
McMurry at Mary Hardin Baylor
Wash & Jeff at Thomas More

And two more on November 12th:
Christopher Newport at Ferrum
E.Texas Baptist at McMurry

religion_major · October 25, 2005, 04:03:33 PM

By the primary criteria Huntingdon should have a slight edge on W&J due to better SOS when the regional rankings come out. I think if Huntingdon gets in then Salisbury goes to the east region. Huntingdon would then get to visit the closer of the two ASC teams (UMHB or HSU), with the other team going to Trinity. That would leave BC visiting Thiel and Ferrum going to JHU.

Ralph Turner · October 25, 2005, 04:45:29 PM

Religion major,

By your suggestions, I understand that you have Linfield as Pool B #1 of course, Thiel as Pool B #2, Salisbury as Pool B #3 (assuming they defeat Wesley this week), Huntingdon as Pool B #4 and then W&J falling to somewhere in Pool C.

cnu85 · October 25, 2005, 04:52:10 PM

Good work llama.....now I need Motrin!!

religion_major · October 25, 2005, 05:00:01 PM

Yes I do. I was simply looking at the primary criteria of which quality win index is one of the primary criteria. Both have one in region loss to a possible #1 seed, so I was throwing out the idea that Huntingdon might get in ahead of W&J. The NCAA says that history is not a criteria in selection so I believe that either stands a decent shot at that fourth pool c. I think W&J's quality win index will improve after the Thomas More game. Of course if W&J looses to Thomas More, they are done with two regional losses. It all depends on the Thomas More game, I was simply pointing out the ramifictions of a bid for Huntingdon.

Bob.Gregg · October 25, 2005, 05:02:15 PM

major,

If Huntingdon & W&J win out, won't the Presidents have a better In-Region record, off-setting a slightly lower QOWI index?

Bill McCabe · October 25, 2005, 05:26:38 PM

Bob.Gregg, What is your take on the list from Llamaguy's list? Things could get a lot clearer, or there could be a huge mess! I love this time of year!

religion_major · October 25, 2005, 05:27:47 PM

I believe that W&J would take both quality win index and regional record if they beat Thomas More. I think it is a toss up at this point as to who should go and who should stay home. Pool C is also a possibility that the team left out of pool b will get in. I cannot make my final projection until I see the final criteria. I was just looking at the chart Llamaguy put together and was wondering how far Wesley's QOWI would drop with a loss to Salisbury? The loser of that game also figures into this fourth pool b discussion. I was just attepting to show how the bracket would be effected should Hundington get that pool b bid. I think if W&J makes the playoff they will go to the east region.

Llamaguy · October 25, 2005, 05:50:53 PM

Quote from: religion_major on October 25, 2005, 05:27:47 PM
I believe that W&J would take both quality win index and regional record if they beat Thomas More. I think it is a toss up at this point as to who should go and who should stay home. Pool C is also a possibility that the team left out of pool b will get in. I cannot make my final projection until I see the final criteria. I was just looking at the chart Llamaguy put together and was wondering how far Wesley's QOWI would drop with a loss to Salisbury? The loser of that game also figures into this fourth pool b discussion. I was just attepting to show how the bracket would be effected should Hundington get that pool b bid. I think if W&J makes the playoff they will go to the east region.

How right you are! The best Huntingdon can do is qowi=9.57, if W&J wins out qowi=9.62. W&J = 1 loss to an undefeated Thiel team, Huntingdon = 1 loss to an undefeated Trinity team. How is that for close? I agree if Wesley loses this weekend they are out. But don't dicount Whitworth in the west. Currently their only loss is to Linfield. That leaves Pool B = Thiel,Salisbury,Whitworth, W&J, Huntingdon, and Wesley. Pool C may get a visit from some Pool B teams for sure this year.

Wesley's qowi would drop to the mid 11's with a loss to Salisbury.

Ralph Turner · October 25, 2005, 06:10:29 PM

If someone has a more difficult run to get to the playoffs than McMurry, it is Thomas More.

What I want is for Thomas More to defeat both Thiel and especially W&J to knock them both down a notch, and then lose to Mount St Joseph, which is likely to get the Pool A bid from the HCAC.

We ASC fans need there to be no Pool B's falling to Pool C, if we want 2 playoff teams. I think that 2 (in-region) losses is an "eliminating factor" for Pool C this year.

Right now, we have to worry about Linfield, Thiel, Salisbury (not "or" but) and Wesley, W&J, Whitworth and Huntingdon. Those last 4 are competing for "OUR" Pool C bids.

Of course, McMurry's running the table would knock out both UMHB and HSU from Pool C. If that is the sacrifice that the conference must make for McMurry to win, then so be it.

Bill McCabe · October 25, 2005, 06:13:49 PM

Ralph, If HSU and UMHB don't lose another game, don't you think they will both get in the playoffs?

Bill McCabe · October 25, 2005, 06:14:52 PM

Ralph, I'm a McMurry fan this week! Just for you!

Ralph Turner · October 25, 2005, 06:24:25 PM

Bill, I think that the hard floor in Pool C this year is only one in-region loss, but I don't know how the committee will evaluate in-region.

Now HSU and UMHB are probably legitmately Top 10 teams, but most mature, sane ASC fans think that we are a Top 5 conference and that the HPU win over UMHB was no upset!

If we are knocking ourselves out of the playoffs, like the WIAC fans boast that they do, then ouch!

But there are enough other programs that are vastly superior to their conference competition that they make the playoff cut, and then get eliminated in the first round. Also, we don't have a real weak sister conference that allows us to boost our QOWI's as the Midwest Conference and IBFC do for the CCIW and the WIAC, or the MIAA or HCAC or NCAC even the middle third of the Pres AC does for the OAC.

The Austin College move might help, but we need a beatable independent UDallas and beatable indepedent D-3 SAGU. Plus we must beat Millsaps and Rhodes when we play them. If LC ends up 4-5, then a win over Rhodes would have turned them into 5-4 team which is better in the QOWI.

The real advantage comes when you can defeat a .500 or better school from a weaker conference. Then we could really boost our QOWI.

Wordy, but one loss HSU does as the AQ and UMHB will barely gets the Pool C bid.

Oh could you loan McMurry some of those UMHB linemen! (IMHO, I believe that is UMHB's real strength...their hogs!)

South Region playoffs

cnu85