South Region playoffs

[Bill McCabe]

Huntington would be the closest team to Texas, right.

[PA_wesleyfan]

Wesley's quality of win rating may give them a higher seed in the South. Though I don't know how the Chowan game next week effects that

[Bill McCabe]

PA_wesleyfan,  I think W&J and Wesley will move into 7 & 8 in the regional rankings.

[Llamaguy]

Wesley's quality of win rating may give them a higher seed in the South. Though I don't know how the Chowan game next week effects that

Chowan is now D-II so it won't affect it at all.  Based on their and Salisbury's Regional ranking, I think the commitee is not looking kindly to having half or less of their games in region. They aren't being penalized just don't think that the committee is giving their qowi equal consideration. Just my observation though.

[Josh Bowerman]

I think about the only thing we've learned after this week is that Salisbury will be out of the playoffs this year.

Pool B is looking like Linfield, Thiel, W&J and Wesley--and no Pool B slots falling to Pool C.  At least one of those guys gets shipped out of region.

[Pat Coleman]

Actually, as was discussed on the Daily Dose earlier in the week, it looks like Chowan still conts as a regional game, although philosophically they shouldn't.

[Josh Bowerman]

Continuing...

In my non-professional opinion, the South Region still looking like:

1.  Trinity
2.  Thiel
3.  UMHB
4.  HSU
5.  Bridgewater
6.  Washington & Jefferson
7.  John's Hopkins/CC Winner
8.  Ferrum/USAC Winner

Matchups in my proposed scenario would be:

HSU at Trinity  (even though if HSU has to play a road game, I'd love it to be at Thiel so I could see it)
W&J at UMHB

Ferrum at Bridgewater
Hopkins at Thiel

[Josh Bowerman]

Here's a question, just for kicks:

Any traction to the thought that UMHB might get sent to Trinity in the opening round, due to the fact that they'd be a Pool C team?  I'm not sure how the committee would look at that, or if it matters, since the reason they're not in Pool A consideration has to do with a hurricane.

Just curious, more than anything.  In this scenario, I could still see HSU getting sent on the road in the first round fairly easily (to Thiel, for example), with the Texas sub-bracket intact.  In this scenario, the draw would look like:

UMHB at Trinity
HSU at Thiel

W&J at Bridgewater
Hopkins/CC at Ferrum

Me thinks Ferrum would have to win out for this to be a viable scenario.

[Pat Coleman]

Any traction to the thought that UMHB might get sent to Trinity in the opening round, due to the fact that they'd be a Pool C team?

If they felt that way, surely they'd have HSU ahead of UMHB in the regional rankings instead of the other way around. I suspect we already have our answer on that.

[Josh Bowerman]

Just curious owing to the fact that geography trumps seeding every time, especially in the South.  I could see HSU and UMHB ending up 3-4 or 4-5 in the regional rankings, though. 

Thiel should move up, IMO, with their win over TMC.  UMHB only slips due to the fact that the ETBU doesn't earn them as many points.  Why HSU is ranked behind Bridgewater is still a mystery.

And yes, now I'm rambling....

[Llamaguy]

Week #9 Comparison

* ranking will be based on current QOWI w/in each loss column
@ - indicates teams eligible for Pool B bids
( ) NCAA South Region Ranking - will be updated for Week 9 once released on Wednesday
AFCA Rankings updated as of Nov. 1   (N/R = not ranked)

"0" D-III LOSS TEAMS  with (overall w/l) (regional w/l) QOWI   (important games remaining)

1.  TRINITY (#1)                (7-0) (6-0)     11.50      D3 #9      AFCA#6       None
2.  THIEL @ (#4)                (8-0) (8-0)     11.00      D3 #16    AFCA#19    11/12                       at Carnegie Mellon
3.  FERRUM (#2)                 (8-0) (7-0)     10.29                   AFCA#23     11/12                      Christopher Newport

"1" D-III LOSS TEAMS

1.  WESLEY @ (#10)             (8-1) (5-0)   13.20                      N/R           None
2.  HARDIN-SIMMONS (#6)     (7-1) (6-1)   10.43      D3 #10    AFCA #11    11/12                      at Texas Lutheran       
3.  UMHB (#3)                      (6-1) (5-1)   10.33      D3# 5     AFCA #7      11/5                       McMurry
4.  JOHNS HOPKINS (#7)        (7-1) (6-1)     9.86                     N/R          11/5                      at Hampden-Sydney, 11/12 at McDaniel
5.  BRIDGEWATER (#5)          (6-1) (5-1)     9.67      D3 #18    AFCA #15    None
6.  HUNTINGDON @               (6-1) (5-1)     9.40                       N/R            11/5                      at Westminster (MO)
7.  WASH & JEFF @ (#9)       (8-1) (6-1)     8.86     D3 # 14   AFCA #17     11/5                       at Thomas More
8.  DEPAUW                        (6-1) (5-1)     8.60                        N/R        11/5                        at Rose-Hulman, 11/12 Wabash



"2" D-III LOSS TEAMS

The "2-loss" in region teams look to basically be eliminated from Pool C consideration. There are currently 14 undefeated teams and 23 "1-loss" teams in D3 football. Should enough of these teams lose in the last 2 weeks I may revisit the "2-loss" group. For now I will list the most likely "2-loss" teams to get a Pool C and the 2 or more loss teams in the USA-South conference still alive for that Pool A bid.

Top "2-loss" Pool C candidates =  1. Salisbury               (6-2) (2-1) 12.00
                                             2. Hampden-Sydney   (6-2) (6-2)   9.75

USA-South Pool A =  Methodist  (6-2)
                           Christopher Newport  (5-3)



South Region (Pool A) Berths (Conference Champions w/ Auto-bids)

American Southwest Conference -
Centennial Conference -
Old Dominion Athletic Conference - Bridgewater
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference -
USA South Athletic Conference -

* conference champions to be updated once official     

[mandfense]

4.  JOHNS HOPKINS (#7)        (7-1) (6-1)     9.86                    AFCA #       11/5                        at Hampden-Sydney

This week's game against Hampden-Sydney is meaningless for JHU.  A win might impress some people and maybe affect seeding if they happen to make the playoffs, but win or lose, their important game is on 11/12 against McDaniel.  That's the one they'll most likely need to win to get the CC bid and into the playoffs.

[mandfense]

Why HSU is ranked behind Bridgewater is still a mystery.

[sarcasm on]
I don't think Bridgewater's coach being on the NCAA South Evaluation Committee had anything to do with Bridgewater being higher than they should be.   
[sarcasm off]

[Llamaguy]

4.  JOHNS HOPKINS (#7)        (7-1) (6-1)     9.86                    AFCA #       11/5                        at Hampden-Sydney

This week's game against Hampden-Sydney is meaningless for JHU.  A win might impress some people and maybe affect seeding if they happen to make the playoffs, but win or lose, their important game is on 11/12 against McDaniel.  That's the one they'll most likely need to win to get the CC bid and into the playoffs.

Technically you are right mandefense. Though a loss to HSC may send Hopkins to the East Region or to Texas even when they beat McDaniel.
The important game nomer is refering to games they could lose. If Hopkins loses to a 1-3 in conference McDaniel team who has lost 4 in a row, they don't deserve to go to the playoffs anyway. Regardless I will add the McDaniel game since it has Pool A implications.

[mandfense]

If Hopkins loses to a 1-3 in conference McDaniel team who has lost 4 in a row, they don't deserve to go to the playoffs anyway.

I couldn't agree with you more.  I think JHU team knows this and would agree with that statement as well.

That being said I think JHU goes down to H-SC this week, embarrassed and with a chip on their shoulder.