South Region playoffs

[Bill McCabe]

Hug, I wouldn't drop HSU to 7th or UMHB to 4th.

[Hug]

Bill,

I have UMHB as the highest ranked 1 loss team.  And I agree, there is no way that Hardin Simmons is the 7th best team in the South.  I actually would pick them to win the South Bracket, but unfortuantely The Cowboys will be going to Trinity in the first round. So I believe the commitee will under value them to make the brackets look more respectible.

I do also believe that the three remaining undefeteds have done enough to warrent the top three positions.

[Cleveland Cartel]

Since everyone on this board was shocked to see Ferrum so high on the NCAA's regional rankings heres a little tidbit.

Ferrum beat Emory and Henry 29-13 in the second week of the season at E&H.

WJ beat Emory and Hentry 50-0 the fourth week of the season at E&H. (E&H had a bye week inbetween)

Thiel beat WJ 35-38 in the 5th week of the season at WJ. 

Would anyone in their right mind take this into consideration?? Or is this research that I did a waste????Its the only comparison that I could find of teams that I could draw a connection to.  Is Ferrum the real deal and a deserve the Number 2 ranking?  Or should another Pool B team be in the position?

[religion_major]

Cartel,
I for the life of me cannot figure out why Ferrum is above Thiel.  I would think such criteria as victory over a Regionally Ranked team (W&J) and higher quality of win index would put Thiel above Ferrum before point spreads (in my understanding not an evaluation criteria) against one win teams are even looked at.  I don't believe that the E&H results should be looked at other than to say that both Ferrum and W&J won the games.  The primary criteria should make it evedent that Thiel should be #2 and Ferrum #3.

[tcheadhunter]

Ferrum has only beat 2 teams with winning records (and those 2 are average at best). All 8 opponents are a combined 20-44 and 4 of those teams have only 1 win. But again I do respect the 8-0 but it's all relative to the teams you beat. Ferrum (in my lowly opinion) should not be ranked that high.   

[Ron Boerger]

Ferrum has only beat 2 teams with winning records (and those 2 are average at best). All 8 opponents are a combined 20-44 and 4 of those teams have only 1 win. But again I do respect the 8-0 but it's all relative to the teams you beat. Ferrum (in my lowly opinion) should not be ranked that high.   

Someone else did point out that two coaches of teams defeated by Ferrum were on the South Region evaluation committee.  That is the ONLY explanation (IMHO) for Ferrum getting ranked that high.   

The good news is the playoffs let the players sort this out on the field. 

[Cleveland Cartel]

TC,

Credit must be given for them being 8-0 as you said.  I definetly give them credit because even though those teams are 20-44 they still had to get a W.  I agree with both of you Religion Major and TC that they are not deserving of the 2nd seed in the South.  I would be entertained by the NCAA's way of explaining there reasoning to everyone.  It has to be Geography that they are thinking.  Who knows!  Any maybe someone in the South region will over take them for that Position and it does not have to be Thiel.   I am a firm believer in earning your keep and yes they have gone 8-0 but the measure of how strong those teams are they have played is weak, and that has not been taken into FULL consideration. 

The class I dreaded the most growing up was GEOGRAPHY and I am still feeling the effects of it!!

[Cleveland Cartel]

Ron,

Let the bodies hit the FLOOOR!

[Ron Boerger]

The AA doesn't take geography into account when it assigns seeds; it does when pairing teams off.   That is why (for example) today you would see a #6 Hardin-Simmons go to #1 Trinity instead of to #3.  

In fact, if for some reason the seeds ended up with three TX teams in the top 4 (has happened before, prolly won't again this year), the lowest will go to the highest and get screwed out of a home game altogether.  

[Cleveland Cartel]

Ron,

That is news to me because I was always under the impression that they were taking Geography into consideration the entire time not just for the pairings.  Thanks Ron

[Toby Taff]

The AA doesn't take geography into account when it assigns seeds; it does when pairing teams off.   That is why (for example) today you would see a #6 Hardin-Simmons go to #1 Trinity instead of to #3. 

In fact, if for some reason the seeds ended up with three TX teams in the top 4 (has happened before, prolly won't again this year), the lowest will go to the highest and get screwed out of a home game altogether. 

Gee, never seen that before. 

[Josh Bowerman]

By putting  the Texas teams in a sub-bracket, so to speak Cleveland, it essentially does accomplish that.

Assume HSU and Trinity play in the first round.  Obviously, a Texas team has to win.  Putting a Ferrum or Thiel up against an UMHB team on the road also looks like a safe bet, given the ASC's results vs. the rest of the south region in previous years.

No, that's definitely a way the NCAA can get away with only two flights in this area until the national semifinals.  They've done it before, and I see no reason to expect that it will be any different this year, unfortunately.

[Ron Boerger]

Just for everyone's information, here are the members of the South Evaluation Region committee:

Charles Harris, Averett University, cochair (AD)
Steve Mohr, Trinity University, cochair (coach)
Paul Barnes, Shenandoah University (coach)
Mike Clark, Bridgewater College (coach)
Mike Clary, Rhodes College (AD)
Mike Donnelly, Muhlenberg College (coach)
Ralph Harris, East Texas Baptist University (coach)

[Josh Bowerman]

I've spent a little time this afternoon looking at projected QOWI and what that might do to South Region playoff pairings.  Assuming that the favored team (i.e. the one with the better record, or the home team if all things are equal) wins out, the following should be close to what the QOWI will look like on Selection Sunday:

1.  Wesley     13.00
2.  Trinity       11.38
3.  Thiel         11.10
4.  HSU          10.67
5.  Ferrum     10.56
6.  UMHB       10.50
7.  B'Water   10.38
8.  JHU          10.33
9.  W&J           9.38

So, because of this, here's what I'm thinking the selection committee might do, seeding-wise:

1.  Trinity  (highest QOWI)
2.  UMHB  (because of win on road over HSU)
3.  Thiel    (because of slightly less impressive win on road vs. W&J)
4.  HSU     (Pool A, #3 regional QOWI)
5.  Ferrum  (better QOWI than B'Water plus undefeated gets to host)
6.  Bridgewater  (HSC and W&L victories & QOWI points mask 31-49 record of opponents)
7.  JHU  (QOWI almost full point better than W&J)
8.  W&J  (last team seeded in south, they get it over Wesley because of potential geography vs. Thiel in later rounds)

Wesley gets shipped to East bracket, likely as #1 or #2 seed.

[Josh Bowerman]

(continued)

So, based on seeding and geography, here's the first round, IMHO, if the playoffs were to start today, complete with rationale:

UMHB at Trinity
HSU at Thiel

Rationale:  HSU is pool A bid winner and has higher QOWI than UMHB.  Ergo, UMHB goes to higher seeded Trinity, HSU to higher seeded Thiel.  Texas sub-bracket still intact unless Thiel pull major shocker.  Trinity OR UMHB to host HSU in second round.

Bridgewater at Ferrum
W&J at John's Hopkins

Rationale:  Undefeated Ferrum gets to host game because of their record and the fact that B'Water's loss is to likely 4-6 McDaniel team at home.  Hopkins gets to host W&J for geography and because they have almost full point QOWI advantage.

Obviously, in this scenario, the bottom half of the draw has a much easier road to travel to the quarterfinals than the top half of the draw.  But alas, geography always takes precedent.  It will be interesting to see how much weight in the home/away matchups is given to QOWI and/or head-to-head matchups in-region vs. playoff teams.