South Region playoffs

[mizzou_mafia]

So, because of this, here's what I'm thinking the selection committee might do, seeding-wise:

1.  Trinity  (highest QOWI)
2.  UMHB  (because of win on road over HSU)
3.  Thiel    (because of slightly less impressive win on road vs. W&J)
4.  HSU     (Pool A, #3 regional QOWI)
5.  Ferrum  (better QOWI than B'Water plus undefeated gets to host)
6.  Bridgewater  (HSC and W&L victories & QOWI points mask 31-49 record of opponents)
7.  JHU  (QOWI almost full point better than W&J)
8.  W&J  (last team seeded in south, they get it over Wesley because of potential geography vs. Thiel in later rounds)

Wesley gets shipped to East bracket, likely as #1 or #2 seed.

Josh, I don't know why you put emphasis on HSU being a Pool A winner.  Nothing in the playoff seeding criteria says anything about Pool A being better than Pool C. 

I think the fact that UMHB beat HSU head-to-head will A) give them the higher seed, B) send HSU to Trinity. 

Also, unless the Selection Committee continues to show disregard for the criteria, using the QOWI you came up with, I think an undefeated Thiel with a higher QOWI than a one-loss UMHB will be seeded higher.  They both have 1 win over a regionally ranked opponent, so that should be a wash.

[Josh Bowerman]

No, but they'd have a higher QOWI, too.  So, IMO, those two things combined could very well send them to Thiel.  Remember, also, that the criteria are used to determine who gets in the playoffs, not seedings or home/away pairings.

I mean, if not HSU, who are you going to send to Thiel?  UMHB?

You have to keep the Texas sub-bracket for travel purposes, and Thiel obviously deserves a home game as an undefeated w/ the #2 QOWI in-region.  Can't put W&J there in the first round because of the conference affiliation.

Remember that seedings and pairings have nothing to do with each other--ergo the fact that the winner of the Trinity/UMHB game hosts HSU or Thiel in the second round.

This is beginning to seem like the most viable scenario, in my mind.  ASC is strong all year, but gets shipped on the road.  Sucks to be in Texas this year, me thinks.

[mizzou_mafia]

Josh,

I'll post some projected seedings in a few more minutes, but my initial thought is that the region will want to give both Trinity and UMHB a home game.  In this way, if the top team seeded team in each game wins, then it's an all-Texas game in Round 2.

Also, I really don't think the committee is going to make UMHB travel to the Number 1 seed because of a < .2 difference in QOWI.  When it's that marginal, other criteria, such as head-to-head, I should think will take precendence.

[mizzou_mafia]

Remember, also, that the criteria are used to determine who gets in the playoffs, not seedings or home/away pairings.

Actually, the Criteria is used for seeding and home/away pairings.

"Teams may be seeded on a regional basis using the regional selection criteria."

[Josh Bowerman]

Not according to the FAQs on the front page...but I might be wrong and need to look in a different spot.

Of course, the rest of the bracket could get slotted because of a > .2 QOWI, too, MM.

Just my opinion, here.  But who does Thiel get to play and where?

[mizzou_mafia]

Not according to the FAQs...but I might be wrong.

The quote I posted was from the NCAA handbook.  I've been on top of the criteria the past several years and double checked to make sure nothing of that nature had changed, and it hadn't. 

http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2005/2005_d3_football_handbook.pdf

Page 12-13.  It specifically talks about "Selection Criteria -- For Ranking and Selection"

Give me a sec, I'll have some pairings up

[mizzou_mafia]

I do want to point out that "In-region head-to-head competition" and "In-region results vs regionally ranked opponents" are also primary criteria, and neither should be given any less weight than any QOWI numbers.

[Josh Bowerman]

I'll give you a sec.... time's up!  

With what you're saying, UMHB could end up with the #1 seed then--since they have the better win over a ranked regional opponent (when compared to Thiel) and wins over the same opponents that Trinity does (ergo a wash), and QOWI falls further down on the criteria list than head to head stuff.

I gotta go to my daughter's soccer game, but I'll be back later tonight to see what you've come up with, MM.

[mizzou_mafia]

With what you're saying, UMHB could end up with the #1 seed then--since they have the better win over a ranked regional opponent (when compared to Thiel)

Josh,

You keep mentioning "Better ranked regional opponent."  When you're working on your pairings, I wouldn't worry about where opponents are ranked, but just IF they are ranked.  The selection criteria says wins against regionally ranked opponents are used, but you won't find anything in the primary or secondary criteria about an advantage being obtained for beating a higher ranked regional opponent.

Now, I really will get to some projections..

[mizzou_mafia]

I've spent a little time this afternoon looking at projected QOWI and what that might do to South Region playoff pairings.  Assuming that the favored team (i.e. the one with the better record, or the home team if all things are equal) wins out, the following should be close to what the QOWI will look like on Selection Sunday:

1.  Wesley     13.00
2.  Trinity       11.38
3.  Thiel         11.10
4.  HSU          10.67
5.  Ferrum     10.56
6.  UMHB       10.50
7.  B'Water   10.38
8.  JHU          10.33
9.  W&J           9.38

Ok, for these projections, I'm not looking outside the South Region at all.  Because of this, these projections could be VERY flawed, because all 9 teams Josh mentioned may not make the playoffs.  As I have limited time right now, I will just assume that all 9 teams make the playoffs. 

I will be using the projected QOWI that Josh provided us.  This may also change during the remainder of the season.  As QOWI is NOT the only primary criteria, I'll try to explain why I feel these teams should get these seedings if they win out.

I'll also follow Josh's lead and ship Wesley out of the region.  This makes sense geographically, but without looking at the other regions, this may be dumb.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the committee ship out a lower seed elsewhere (like W&J or HSU).  For example, HSU could get shipped to Linfield, if someone would have to fly there anyway.  This really depends on the national picture, which I'm not going to look at right now. 

First, a question... is Thiel's game with Bluffton an in-region game?  Am I correct that if a school is within 200 miles of each other, it's an in-region game.  Mapquest has these two schools at more than 230 miles apart, yet the NCAA regional rankings show Thiel with 7 of 7 games being in region (before this past weekend's game).

[Ralph Turner]

Actually, I think that Josh is just trying to get HSU to come to Pennsylvania for a playoff game.

[mizzou_mafia]

Seedings
1) Thiel 10-0?, 10-0, QOWI 11.10, 1 win over regionally ranked opponent
2) Trinity 8-0, 9-0, QOWI 11.38
3) Ferrum 10-0, 10-0, QOWI 10.56
4) UMHB 7-1, 8-1, QOWI 10.50, 1 win over regionally ranked opponent
5) HSU 8-1, 9-1, QOWI 10.67
6) JHU, 8-1, 9-1, QOWI 10.33
7) B'Water 7-1, 8-1, QOWI 10.38
8 ) W&J 7-1, 9-1, QOWI 9.38

Pairings
1 Theil vs 7 B'Water
3 Ferrum vs 8 W&J

2 Trinity vs 5 HSU
4 UMHB vs 6 JHU

Sidenote: Trinity and BC both have a member on the selection committee.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Trinity leapfrog Thiel for #1, or B'Water move up to 6.  HOWEVER, even if this happens, I think the only pairing that could get changed is who gets shipped to UMHB.  

Rationale for Seeding and Pairing
--Thiel is the only undefeated with a win against a regionally ranked opponent, and has a comparable QOWI to Trinity, thus the #1 seeding.
--Trinity and Ferrum come next, as they both have a better winning % against regional opponents (a primary criteria) than the remaining field.  Trinity has a higher QOWI than Ferrum, thus the higher seeding.
--UMHB beat HSU head-to-head, placing them higher than HSU.  UMHB also has a win over a regionally ranked opponent and a comparable QOWI in relation to the rest of the field.  Thus, #4
--HSU before JHU based on QOWI.  All other things are a wash.
--JHU ahead of BC based on region winning %.  QOWI basically even.
--BC ahead of W&J based on significant QOWI advantage.

In pairings, I kept Thiel and W&J away from each other in the first round, and UHMB and HSU away from each other.  I believe everyone else is close enough for busing.

Comments?

[spliskin]

MM,

Bluffton is considered a regional game for Thiel.

BTW - good work!

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

[...]

Pairings
1 Theil vs 7 B'Water
3 Ferrum vs 8 W&J

2 Trinity vs 5 HSU
4 UMHB vs 6 JHU

[...]

Comments?

Excellent analysis!  I could see MHB having to play the lower seeded W&J team and sending JHU to Thiel instead.  Leaving Bridgewater to travel to Ferrum.

[Llamaguy]

Tomorrow's Regional rankings should tell us alot. If the Top 6 stay the same I think we will have a good idea what the committee is thinking. Barring a McMurry over UMHB, a CNU over Ferrum, or a major upset with the rest of the top 6, things should stay the same after tomorrow's release.