South Region playoffs

[Bob.Gregg]

And back in the OLD days, I believe it was Thomas More that didn't file to even participate, and W&J got in because of it, and did pretty well.

I could be mistaken, but I'm almost positive it was TMC (that was the first time I'd ever heard of TMC).

[Cleveland Cartel]

Unbelievable that is something that I hope the boys over at Thiel will know to do, but then again I believe they havent been to the Playoffs at all either!!!!!

[Ron Boerger]

What about a Mount vs Thiel matchup...Alliance, OH is only right over the border and proably just as far as Washington, PA?

Be careful what you wish for.   

[Cleveland Cartel]

Trust me Boys I would take WJ first round the 2nd time then going after Mount for the first time!!!!

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

Alright ... let me join in on this discussion.  I'm providing just a projection, with the following assumptions:

Hampden-Sydney will beat Johns Hopkins
Salisbury will beat Wesley
Christopher Newport will beat Ferrum
Johns Hopkins will beat McDaniel
Hardin-Simmons will beat both East Texas Baptist & Mary Hardin-Baylor
Wabash will beat DePauw

Obviously, any number of the games above can be reversed ... just my opinion.  So here is what the South Region will look like at the end of the year (barring any upsets and taking the above as what will occur):

Seed	School	Reg. Record	QoW index	Overall Record	Big Reg. Wins	Big Non-Reg. Wins	Losses
1	Har.-Simmons	9-0	~10.77	10-0	vs MHB	none	none
2	Thiel	9-0	~11.44	10-0	@ W&J	none	none
3	Trinity, TX	8-0	~10.50	9-0	vs Hun.	none	none
4	Salisbury	5-0	~12.20	9-1	@ Wesley	none	vs M'Clair St.
5	Johns Hopkins	8-1	~10.33	9-1	none	none	@ H-SC
6	CNU	7-1	~10.25	8-2	@ Ferrum	none	vs Rowan, vs Sal.
7	Bridgewater	7-1	~9.75	8-1	@ H-SC	@ Hanover	vs McDaniel
8	Wesley	6-1	~10.43	9-1	@ DePauw	none	vs Salisbury
--	Ham.-Sydney	9-1	~10.30	9-1	vs JHU	none	vs BC
--	Wash. & Jeff.	7-1	~9.87	9-1	none	@ Hanover	vs Thiel
--	DePauw	6-1	~9.57	7-2	none	none	vs Wes., vs Wabash
--	Ferrum	8-1	~9.33	9-1	none	none	vs CNU

I just considered South Region teams with one or less in-region losses, thus bumping MHB from consideration.  If the above pans out, then Wesley and Hampden-Sydney is a toss-up for the last seed.  Of course all this is assuming the South Region gets just eight in, with no one being shipped out (and no one being shipped in).

So I'd project first round games being;

#3 Trinity (TX) at #1 Hardin-Simmons
#7 Bridgewater at #6 Christopher Newport

#8 Wesley at #2 Thiel
#5 Johns Hopkins at #4 Salisbury

[Bob.Gregg]

Trust me Boys I would take WJ first round the 2nd time then going after Mount for the first time!!!!

Which weighs more, Cartel--a ton of feathers or a ton of bricks?

[Ron Boerger]

Trust me Boys I would take WJ first round the 2nd time then going after Mount for the first time!!!!

Which weighs more, Cartel--a ton of feathers or a ton of bricks?

Well, they weigh the same.  But which is easier to plow through?   

[religion_major]

Kid,
Judging from the history of the USA south I would count on CNU to loose at least once in confrence.  Methodist is looking decently good this season.  Granted Ferum hasn't played anyone but that could be a close one.  Another travel related question, why wouldn't the NCAA then ship Bridgewater to Salisbury and send CNU to JHU?  Both of those matchups would be within the 500 mile bus limit. 

[pakownr97]

I don't know much about feathers and bricks, but I do know this.

Mount Union is much better than Thiel or W & J.

And I'd bet a brick to a feather on that.

[Cleveland Cartel]

Boys,

You wish in one hand and Crap in the other and see which one will get filled up first!!! Take your pic!

[Cleveland Cartel]

Kidd great work on all that!! Thats unbelievable now lets hope that these teams can finish out this way and no more math will have to be involved!!!

[sthrncwby]

kid,  wouldn't #1 in region get a first round bye?

[religion_major]

sthrncwby,
Not since the playoffs expanded to 32 teams.  The only first round bye is for teams who get a bye until next August.

[Cleveland Cartel]

All the byes are gone now!! Wow that is something new!! No rest for the Weary....

[2055ie]

KID,
Just out of curiosity. Taking your assumption that Salsibury beats Wesley. How are you getting Wesley into the playoffs? By my calculations Wesley only plays 5 regional games(based on the schedule provided by D3football.com) that count and with 1 loss that leaves them at .800 in regional competition. With one of the primary criteria being W-L % against regional opponents, .800 is decidedly lower than say, from their region, W&J which you have projected at .875 granted with a lower QoW; or from the West Region where a team could finish with a .857 W-L% and a higher QoW.

Always enjoy reading your analyses, keep them coming