South Region playoffs

[Ralph Turner]

IMHO, Wesley has locked up the Pool B bid.

Now they are contending for the #1 seed in the bracket.

[crualum55]

How is Hampden-Sydney in front of Mary Hardin-Baylor in the South region right now?  Is it only because they are 8-0 right now compard to the Cru's 7-0?

[Ralph Turner]

FAQ  Playoffs.

Won-loss record is not the only criterion.

Please check out the FAQ link above.

[crualum55]

Thanks for the link  I wish I'd had know about that when I played.  It still looks as though UMHB is ahead of Hampden-Sydney in a few of the criteria.  I did not look through schedules at the opponents so I don't have all the facts.  There are still a few weeks to go though.  Although I don't know that it benefits UMHB to play at home more.  They play very strong on the road during playoff games.

[Pat Coleman]

You don't have to look through schedules at opponents (although we would certainly love it if you did). We do the NCAA's calculations for you:

http://www.d3football.com/seasons/2010/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

Keep in mind this is now through this week's games, while the ranking is last weeks ranking.

[Pat Coleman]

Latest regional rankings posted:
http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/03/ncaas-second-regional-rankings/

[Toby Taff]

They look more normal.  Glad to see HSU higher up the list.

[Ralph Turner]

They look more normal.  Glad to see HSU higher up the list.

South Region
1. Wesley 5-0 8-0
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-0 8-0
3. Hampden-Sydney 8-0 8-0
4. DePauw 8-0 8-0
5. Thomas More 8-0 8-0
6. Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1
7. Ursinus 7-1 7-1
8. Salisbury 4-2 6-2
9. Randolph-Macon 7-1 7-1
10. Washington and Lee 6-2 6-2

Looks like another UMHB/HSU first round meeting.

Key games ahead include the ODAC showdowns HSC at W&L this week and HSC and RMC next week.

Ursinus still must beat Muhlenberg to stay out of a 2-loss tie situation in the Centennial Conference.

[@d3jason]

Does Wesley get sent to the east this year? (assuming they beat Kean next week.)

It looks like the Wheaton/North Central winner could steal away the North number one seed from Mount Union.

[thewaterboy]

Maybe Mount gets shipped east and wesley stays south if Wheaton/North Central has #1 (is that even possible?)

[Ryan Tipps]

Definitely possible, among other things that could keep Wesley in the South. Assuming all teams win out, the chips could fall in a variety of ways.

The three most likely scenarios I see are:

North-South-East-West
Mount-UMHB-Wesley-UWW
UWW-Wesley-Mount-St. Thomas
CCIW winner-Wesley-Mount-UWW

In Kickoff 2010, I predicted Wesley winning the East Region, so I'm hoping they get shipped there.

[Ralph Turner]

Updated thru Nov 6th

South Region
1. Wesley 5-0 8-0   Pool B (open date)
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-0 8-0  8-0 / 9-0 Clinched Pool A today
3. Hampden-Sydney 8-0 8-0  8-1/8-1 Pool C  after today's loss to W&L
4. DePauw 8-0 8-0  9-0 /9-0  SCAC Pool A
5. Thomas More 8-0 8-0 9-0 /9-0 Clinched Pres AC Pool A
6. Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1  (open date)
7. Ursinus 7-1 7-1 7-2/ 7-2 Lost to Muhlenberg which got the CC Pool A Bid
8. Salisbury 4-2 6-2 (open date)
9. Randolph-Macon 7-1 7-1  7-2 /7-2  Lost to Bridgewater
10. Washington and Lee 6-2 6-2  7-2 /7-2 ODAC Pool A with the win over H-SC

Still looks like another UMHB/HSU first round meeting.

[algernon]

So, these are the South teams that look like they will (or might) get an NCAA bid (along with their current record and my projection of their regional ranking in tomorrow's NCAA ranking:

1.   Wesley 5-0 8-0                     Pool B
2.   Mary Hardin-Baylor 8-0 9-0       Pool A
3.   DePauw 9-0 9-0                      Pool A
4.   Thomas More 9-0 9-0                 Pool A   
5.   Hampden-Sydney 8-1 8-1       Pool C
6.   Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1       Pool C
7.   Salisbury 4-2 6-2                  Pool B
8.   Muhlenburg   7-1  7-2           Pool A
9.   Washington and Lee 7-2 7-2     Pool A
NA   CNU   5-4  5-4                      Pool A

I'm not clear on whether Hampden-Sydney or Hardin-Simmons is the team most likely to get the #5 spot.  These two teams are certainly competing for a Pool C bid, with one or the other possibly left out.  If both teams win their last game (HSC hosts RMC!), and both actually get a Pool C bid, than I'm wondering what others think is the likelihood of the following first-round schedule matchups (and I've put final regional/overall record, if they win out, in parentheses):

CNU (6-4, 6-4) to Wesley (6-0, 9-0)
Hardin-Simmons (9-1, 9-1) to Mary Hardin-Baylor (9-0 / 10-0)
North Region team () to DePauw (10-0, 10-0)
W&L (8-2, 8-2) to Thomas More  (10-0, 10-0)
Muhlenburg (5-2, 7-2) to Delaware Valley (9-1, 9-1)
Salisbury (5-2, 7-2) to Hampden-Sydney (9-1, 9-1)

[Ralph Turner]

So, these are the South teams that look like they will (or might) get an NCAA bid (along with their current record and my projection of their regional ranking in tomorrow's NCAA ranking:

1.   Wesley 5-0 8-0                     Pool B
2.   Mary Hardin-Baylor 8-0 9-0       Pool A
3.   DePauw 9-0 9-0                      Pool A
4.   Thomas More 9-0 9-0                 Pool A   
5.   Hampden-Sydney 8-1 8-1       Pool C
6.   Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1       Pool C
7.   Salisbury 4-2 6-2                  Pool B
8.   Muhlenburg   7-1  7-2           Pool A
9.   Washington and Lee 7-2 7-2     Pool A
NA   CNU   5-4  5-4                      Pool A

I'm not clear on whether Hampden-Sydney or Hardin-Simmons is the team most likely to get the #5 spot.  These two teams are certainly competing for a Pool C bid, with one or the other possibly left out.  If both teams win their last game (HSC hosts RMC!), and both actually get a Pool C bid, than I'm wondering what others think is the likelihood of the following first-round schedule matchups (and I've put final regional/overall record, if they win out, in parentheses):

CNU (6-4, 6-4) to Wesley (6-0, 9-0)
Hardin-Simmons (9-1, 9-1) to Mary Hardin-Baylor (9-0 / 10-0)
North Region team () to DePauw (10-0, 10-0)
W&L (8-2, 8-2) to Thomas More  (10-0, 10-0)
Muhlenburg (5-2, 7-2) to Delaware Valley (9-1, 9-1)
Salisbury (5-2, 7-2) to Hampden-Sydney (9-1, 9-1)

HSC was #5 in the South Region before the loss to W&L. I wonder how far that they drop in the final Pool C assessment.

[algernon]

HSC was #5 in the South Region before the loss to W&L. I wonder how far that they drop in the final Pool C assessment.

Actually, the ranking I included in my earlier post was just my projection of what tomorrow's ranking might look like.  The most recent ranking has HSC at #3:  http://www.ncaa.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/110310aaa.html

HSC was #1 in the South Region in the October 27 NCAA ranking.

Then they beat Guilford by 29 points, while Wesley defeated Salisbury by 3 points and Mary Hardin-Baylor defeated Howard Paine by 42 points, and they dropped to #3 (behind #1 Wesley and #2 Mary Hardin-Baylor) in the South Region in the November 3 poll.  

Given HSC's first loss of the season on Saturday, to W&L, I'm figuring they'll drop from #3 to #5 or #6.  They've got a win over Salisbury under their belt.