South Region playoffs

Ralph Turner · October 23, 2005, 02:29:43 AM

Great title, Ron.

The ASC is crazy!

Has the ASC just gotten better this year? Today, UMHB played like the second half of 2004! The 2005 HPU loss mimicks the 2004 HSU loss as a motivator.

As an arbitrary power rating, I see the ASC as UMHB at the top at 95, HSU at 90, HPU and ETBU at 83, TLU at 78, McMurry at 75, LC at 70, SRSU at 65, MC at 55 and AC at 40. McMurry has 4 wins against the bottom 4 and still faces HSU, UMHB and ETBU. $:-\$

The ASC needs help from Wabash in the Monon Bell for a Pool C. Both HSU and UMHB still need to run the table. Then, HSU gets the Pool A and UMHB gets the Pool C bid.

Huntingdon had their week off. (The Thomas More weekend?) They should defeat SAGU, Westminster and Maryville TN, their last South Region game and GSAC rival. With the way that Maryville TN acts in basketball in the GSAC, there may be some revenge meted out by the football team if a Pool B bid is on the line. I still like Huntingdon as the Pool B darkhorse.

Is TU really that strong? I thought that TU had 2nd game advantage when they played TLU.

Davidson the SRSU QB is very good! We have several great QB's in the ASC.

My ranking:
1) Salinas TLU
T2) Sellers McM and Johnson HPU tied. (Sellers still has the 3 best teams to play. His ranking can move from there.)
4) Cooper LC
5) Davidson SRSU
6) Padron and Welch UMHB (Reliable and steady. They have lots of tools and support. Just need to keep things running. Great QB's for such a great system.)

Bill McCabe · October 23, 2005, 08:35:00 AM

Ralph and Ron, At this point in the season, how would you set up a South bracket?

Toby Taff · October 23, 2005, 09:11:04 AM

Ron,

I love that title.

Just too funny.

Ralph,
McMurry already suprised me. I thought their winning was over for the year, but I think they can beat ETBU, and if HSU and MHB can't keep the O down, it sounds like they could make those two barnburners. I guess we'll see.

Bill McCabe · October 23, 2005, 09:14:52 AM

Ron, live dangerously. Go with the title!

Toby Taff · October 23, 2005, 09:25:44 AM

Or change it to:

What would you like with your can of Whoop-***?

So that it passes the editorial test

Llamaguy · October 23, 2005, 12:27:09 PM

South Region analysis will be up by tomorrow a.m. Will add the NCAA South region's first Top 10 of the year on Wednesday this go round.

And yes it was a wild weekend to say the least!

Ralph Turner · October 23, 2005, 01:16:15 PM

Bill, I like the analyses by Josh and by "kid", but can both UMHB and especially HSU run the table?

Someone flies into Belton and HSU goes to Trinity as #1 seed. I would like to see Huntingdon come to UMHB, but that is wishful thinking....Southern style smash mouth football! But to play TU again if they won?!?

I just hope we go far in the playoffs!

Ron Boerger · October 23, 2005, 03:07:55 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 23, 2005, 02:29:43 AM
Has the ASC just gotten better this year? Today, UMHB played like the second half of 2004! The 2005 HPU loss mimicks the 2004 HSU loss as a motivator.

I think that, while the conference may be getting stronger, that the gap between the haves and have-nots is narrowing (except poor AC). The QB transfers have really helped both McM and HPU, too.

Quote
The ASC needs help from Wabash in the Monon Bell for a Pool C. Both HSU and UMHB still need to run the table. Then, HSU gets the Pool A and UMHB gets the Pool C bid.

IMO the ASC gets the second bid regardless of what DPU and Wabash do. DPU's chances took a hit when Wesley got thrashed. They may get in still, but I think if you look at UMHB and DPU you would have to rank UMHB above the Indiana Tigers.

QuoteHuntingdon had their week off. (The Thomas More weekend?) They should defeat SAGU, Westminster and Maryville TN, their last South Region game and GSAC rival. With the way that Maryville TN acts in basketball in the GSAC, there may be some revenge meted out by the football team if a Pool B bid is on the line. I still like Huntingdon as the Pool B darkhorse.

I'm thinking they still need a little help. With three weeks to go, they could get it. At the same time, the NCAA might elect not to reward a team that only played 8 D3 teams on their schedule, which would be a shame.

QuoteIs TU really that strong? I thought that TU had 2nd game advantage when they played TLU.

Trinity is learning to play power football, and the defense is getting stronger. They're up against a good Rhodes defensive unit on the road this weekend, let's see how they fare on the road, always a challenge. That said, TU did manage to pull one out at Redlands, and Redlands gave #7 Oxy all they wanted, too.

Ralph Turner · October 23, 2005, 04:24:27 PM

Ron, there are so many great QB's in Texas! The Brett Elliott-Adam Johnson-Ty Sellers model for transferring when you are not getting the playing time or the enjoyment ought to help the ASC.

We play fun-football down here. If the equalization by the QB's is key, then high school players should realize that the ASC is a great place to play football.

Would the NCAA cut Huntingdon some slack since they lost a South Region game when Thomas More moved to the Pres AC? (Yeah, the Millsaps Hurricane Katrina game-rescheduling filled that slot, but they wuz robbed!) Having LaGrange and having an odd-numbered ASC next year should help Huntingdon fill their schedule. They can get Maryville, LaGrange, twice if needed, maybe 1-3 ODAC, 2-4 ASC and maybe 4-5 SCAC teams! Wesminster MO likes to play games after the UMAC Bowl Day which occurs during week #9. They are North Region, but a D3 opponent nevertheless. Independent Colorado College also needs games too.

Oh, and Ron, the AC issue is 3 games away from being an SCAC issue!

pottsy · October 23, 2005, 08:06:46 PM

Ralph, who do you think would be the #1 seed in the South?

Llamaguy · October 23, 2005, 08:41:34 PM

Week #8 Comparison

* ranking will be based on current QOWI w/in each loss column
@ - indicates teams eligible for Pool B bids

AFCA Top 25 will be updated Tuesday & NCAA South Regional Top 10 will be updated when released on Wednesday.

"0" D-III LOSS TEAMS with (overall w/l) (regional w/l) QOWI

1. TRINITY (6-0) (5-0)    12.40 D3 #9 AFCA #
2. THIEL @ (7-0) (7-0)    11.43 D3 #18 AFCA #
3. JOHNS HOPKINS (7-0) (6-0)    11.17 AFCA #
4. FERRUM (7-0) (6-0)    10.33

"1" D-III LOSS TEAMS

1. SALISBURY @ (6-1) (2-0) 13.50 D3 #17
2. WESLEY @    (7-1) (4-0) 12.50
3. HARDIN-SIMMONS    (6-1) (5-1) 10.33 D3 #10 AFCA #
4. UMHB (5-1) (4-1) 10.00    D3# 5 AFCA #
5. BRIDGEWATER (5-1) (4-1) 9.00    D3 #20 AFCA #
   HUNTINGDON @ (5-1) (4-1)    9.00
7. WASH & JEFF @ (7-1) (5-1) 8.83   D3 # 15 AFCA #
8. DEPAUW (5-1) (4-1) 8.60

"2" D-III LOSS TEAMS

1. HOWARD PAYNE (4-3) (4-2)    9.83
2. WASH & LEE (5-2) (4-2) 9.00
3. ETBU (4-3) (4-2) 8.83
4. HAMPDEN SYDNEY (5-2) (5-2)    8.71
5. METHODIST (5-2) (5-2) 8.43
6. CENTRE (6-2) (4-2)    8.17
7. THOMAS MORE @ (5-2) (5-2) 7.86
8. MCMURRY (5-2) (4-2) 7.83
9. CNU (4-3) (3-2) 7.60

* ETBU has 2 in region losses and 1 loss to a D-II team, thus in the NCAA's eyes, a (4-2) D-III record.

*CNU & HPU have 2 in region losses & stay on the board even with 3 total DIII losses.

* Once a team has more than 2 losses in region they will drop from consideration as the season progresses. Note: Pool A (automatic qualifiers) will throw "a wrench" into the number of spots available in the South Region. Total spots available in the DIII Playoff Field = 32.

South Region (Pool A) Berths (Conference Champions w/ Auto-bids)

American Southwest Conference -
Centennial Conference -
Old Dominion Athletic Conference -
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference -
USA South Athletic Conference -

* conference champions to be updated once official

Ralph Turner · October 23, 2005, 08:46:27 PM

Right now, I think that Trinity has the criteria.

Llamaguy · October 23, 2005, 08:58:10 PM

A few thoughts as we go into the Week 8 Comparison:

1. McDaniel & Rose-Hulman fall out of consideration with losses this weekend.
2. HSU & Wesley dropped from the unbeatens.

It looks as though there are 12 teams really left in contention with Pool C looking very tight this year. The 2 loss in region team are, "in my opinion", punching their ticket to the playoffs, as a spectator, unless alot of 1 loss teams lose and that is nationwide not just in the South region.

Ralph Turner · October 23, 2005, 08:58:59 PM

Thanks for the update! I will post my best guess.

The criteria do not give a priority among the Primary Criteria. IMHO, it is awfully hard to tell a team that wins all of its game that they did not do enough. I will rank on losses, then QOWI, then other critiera. I am assuming that all teams win out!

"0" D-III LOSS TEAMS with (overall w/l) (regional w/l) QOWI

1. TRINITY "A" SCAC (6-0) (5-0) 12.40 D3 #9 AFCA #
2. THIEL @ "B" Pres AC (7-0) (7-0) 11.43 D3 #18 AFCA #
3. JOHNS HOPKINS "A" CC      (7-0) (6-0) 11.17 AFCA #
4. FERRUM "A" USAC       (7-0) (6-0) 10.33

"1" D-III LOSS TEAMS

5. SALISBURY @ "B" ACFC (6-1) (2-0) 13.50 D3 #17 Wesley on Oct 29
6. WESLEY @ "B" ACFC (7-1) (4-0) 12.50
7. HARDIN-SIMMONS "A" ASC (6-1) (5-1) 10.33 D3 #10 AFCA #
8. UMHB "C" ASC (5-1) (4-1) 10.00 D3# 5 AFCA #
9. BRIDGEWATER "A" ODAC (5-1) (4-1) 9.00 D3 #20 AFCA #
HUNTINGDON @ "B" Indep    (5-1) (4-1) 9.0011.
11. WASH & JEFF "B" Pres AC (7-1) (5-1) 8.83 D3 # 15 AFCA #
12. DEPAUW "C" SCAC (5-1) (4-1) 8.60

pottsy · October 23, 2005, 09:12:15 PM

Ralph, Is it possible that UMHB would be ranked higher than HSU? If not, would they then play Trinity? Assuming they all win out.