South Region playoffs

[Josh Bowerman]

Gotcha.  Thanks.

[d3fbalumn]

Llamaguy,

Any thoughts yet on south region rankings and/or pairings given the changes in QOWI since this weekends games?

[Llamaguy]

Llamaguy,

Any thoughts yet on south region rankings and/or pairings given the changes in QOWI since this weekends games?

I'll update the QOWI w/ ACFA rankings tomorrow. But bottomline it really comes down to does the South get 9 or 10 teams in? A DePauw win over Wabash puts them in as a Pool C and the 10th South Region Team. If they are in, W&J & Wesley move to the East Bracket. If Depauw loses then W&J stays in the South unless Huntingdon squeeks in, which I doubt.

Scenario #1 (DePauw is in)

First Rd:
Trinity hosts Hardin-Simmons
UMHB hosts DePauw
Ferrum hosts Bridgewater
Thiel hosts Johns Hopkins


Scenario #2 (Depauw is out)

First Rd:
Trinity hosts Hardin-Simmons
UMHB hosts Johns Hopkins
Ferrum hosts W&J
Thiel hosts Bridgewater

[Llamaguy]

Week #10 Comparison

* ranking will be based on current QOWI w/in each loss column
@ - indicates teams eligible for Pool B bids
( ) NCAA South Region Ranking (will be updated again Wednesday)
AFCA Rankings  (Updated Nov. 8th) 

"0" D-III LOSS TEAMS   with (overall w/l) (regional w/l) QOWI   

1.  THIEL @ (#4)                 (9-0) (9-0)     11.33      D3 #17     AFCA#18
2.  TRINITY (#1)                 (8-0) (7-0)      11.14      D3 #9      AFCA#6       
3.  FERRUM (#2)                  (9-0) (8-0)     10.38                    AFCA#21     

"1" D-III LOSS TEAMS

1.  WESLEY @ (#6)                (9-1) (5-0)   12.80      D3 #25
2.  UMHB (#3)                       (7-1) (6-1)   10.29      D3 #4      AFCA#4                           
3.  HARDIN-SIMMONS (#7)      (8-1) (7-1)   10.13      D3 #8       AFCA#9                                                  4.  BRIDGEWATER (#5)           (7-1) (6-1)     9.71      D3 #18     AFCA#13
     DEPAUW (#10)                 (7-1) (6-1)     9.71
6.  WASH & JEFF @ (#8)         (9-1) (7-1)     9.38      D3 #16     AFCA#17   
7.  HUNTINGDON @                (7-1) (4-1)     8.60                       
     
                   

"2" D-III LOSS TEAMS

1.  JOHNS HOPKINS (#9)           (7-2) (6-2)     9.25    (Pool A USA-South bid)   
               

The "2-loss" in South Region teams look to basically be eliminated from Pool C consideration. It looks a though if any Pool C teams get in with 2-losses it will be an Ohio Athletic conference team. (Capital,John Carroll,ONU) It is a reach to think that even one of these will get into the field.


South Region Games Nov. (12th) (that could affect seedings or bids)
Thiel at Carnegie Mellon
Christopher Newport at Ferrum
Hardin-Simmons at Texas Lutheran
Wabash at DePauw

*note: There are other teams with seeding implications but barring a major upset, they should win or in Johns Hopkins case would hold their 8th seed even with a loss this weekend.



South Region (Pool A) Berths (Conference Champions w/ Auto-bids)

American Southwest Conference -
Centennial Conference - Johns Hopkins
Old Dominion Athletic Conference - Bridgewater
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference -
USA South Athletic Conference - Ferrum

* conference champions to be updated once official   

[d3fbalumn]

Thanks Llamaguy,

It sounds like you believe that W&J will get in regardless of what happens at the Bell game. It is a question of whether W&J gets placed in the South or the East region. Am I reading that right?

[Llamaguy]

Yes that is my take. The only way I see them not getting in is if Willamette shocks the D3 world and beats Linfield this weekend. I don't see Willamette getting in with 4 regional wins and losses to other divisions that Linfield beat handily. W&J takes the last Pool B spot.

[Bill McCabe]

Llamaguy,  what are the key games this week for bids and seeding?

[Josh Bowerman]

I'd think the main "seeding" game is CNU/Ferrum.  Ferrum already has the conference title, but CNU--at least earlier in the season--was considered the front-runner.  Ferrum's QOWI is already much lower than the top 2, and a loss would likely knock them down to the very low 10.0s-9.9s range in that category.

[Llamaguy]

Llamaguy,  what are the key games this week for bids and seeding?

South Region Games Nov. (12th) (that could affect seedings or bids)
Thiel at Carnegie Mellon
Christopher Newport at Ferrum
Hardin-Simmons at Texas Lutheran
Wabash at DePauw

*note: There are other teams with seeding implications but barring a major upset, they should win or in Johns Hopkins case would hold their 8th seed even with a loss this weekend.

Ferrum & Thiel will be playing to host a first rd game.
HSU to win the ASC Pool A and get into the playoffs.
DePauw to get the last Pool C spot. (Oh, and to ring that bell for another year)  

[DPU_radio_guy]

I'll update the QOWI w/ ACFA rankings tomorrow. But bottomline it really comes down to does the South get 9 or 10 teams in? A DePauw win over Wabash puts them in as a Pool C and the 10th South Region Team. If they are in, W&J & Wesley move to the East Bracket. If Depauw loses then W&J stays in the South unless Huntingdon squeeks in, which I doubt.

Scenario #1 (DePauw is in)

First Rd:
Trinity hosts Hardin-Simmons
UMHB hosts DePauw
Ferrum hosts Bridgewater
Thiel hosts Johns Hopkins

Llamaguy,
Do you think that if DPU gets in, they get shipped to the North?  I find it hard to believe that they'd ship the Tigers all the way to UMHB.

[Llamaguy]

It will be a tough call for the NCAA. The West & The South regions are where the overflow of playoff teams will come from this year. DPU could move North if they could find enough other North or South teams to fill out the East. Bottomlime is someone will have to fly to UMHB. The question is, will it be DPU or someone from the Mid Atlantic in the South region? Hopefully come Saturday afternoon you will be excitedly awaiting where your boys get to play an extra weekend of football in '05! 

[Bill McCabe]

Any potential surprises we might look for this weekend from the selection committee?

[Bwana]

Llamaguy-

Since I like to "scenario rosily", and following your predictions below, what is your best playoff guess if CNU defeats Ferrum this Saturday?  Same teams go, but BC hosts first round game?


Scenario #1 (DePauw is in)

First Rd:
Trinity hosts Hardin-Simmons
UMHB hosts DePauw
Ferrum hosts Bridgewater
Thiel hosts Johns Hopkins

Llamaguy,
Do you think that if DPU gets in, they get shipped to the North?  I find it hard to believe that they'd ship the Tigers all the way to UMHB.

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

New poll posted.


Previous Question: Which South Region team is least likely to make the playoffs?

DePauw - 13 (29.5%)
Huntingdon - 27 (61.4%)
Washington & Jefferson - 3 (6.8%)
Wesley - 1 (2.3%)
 
Total Votes: 44

[Bill McCabe]

I hope the NCAA puts HSU at Trinity and DePauw at UMHB.  ASC vs SCAC.  Texas Sub regional.  Makes a lot of sense in my mind.  Probably won't work then.