South Region playoffs

[Ralph Turner]

Good capsule summaries of the various conferences by religion major (+1 K)

Thru week #6, here is my take:

1)  Wesley -- In the absence of QOWI numbers, and anticipating an undefeated season, they are the #1 Seed.
2)  Bridgewater -- ODAC Champion.  Finishes with an in-region record of 10-0.
3)  CNU -- USAC.  Captians handle Averett. Have an in-region record of 9-0.
4)  UMHB -- Pool A winner from the ASC.  I won't try to "overplay the hand" so I will say that UMHB finishes in-region 8-2 with losses to CNU and UW-W.
5)  HSU -- Top Pool C bid.  Finishes in-region 8-1.
6)  Trinity -- SCAC Pool A bid.
7)  W&J -- Pool B bid (for the last year).
8 )  Ursinus -- Centennial winner Pool A bid.  Gets sent to the East.

My pairings:

Wesley* hosts CNU
Bridgewater hosts W&J

HSU hosts Trinity
UMHB** hosts a fly-in.

Wesley hosts second and third rounds. 
**UMHB hosts second round.

[religion_major]

Major,

Are you saying W&J doesn't make it, even if they run the table?

Are you saying W&J gets shipped somewhere else?

Bob,

I'm saying that I think W&J will slip up.  If they run the table W&J will get a B or a C at 9-1.  Maybe I am being too hard on them.  I also believe that CMU is one of the few teams that will get left out at 9-1, espessially if W&J wins out.  I also think that this discussion of W&J vs CMU becomes a moot point if Whitworth can beat Linfield.  A Linfield team with 2 in-region losses stays home if W&J is 9-1 and CMU is 10-0.  If Whitworth can beat Linfield then I will put both W&J and CMU in. 

[religion_major]

Religion major,  out of those 9 teams, who would you project being moved out of region?

I would say that either DaPauw or CMU(W&J if CMU slips up) gets sent North or Dickenson goes east.  I would say Dickenson goes east.

[Ralph Turner]

CMU gets a bid at 10-0.  They may not get a bid at 9-1 if their QOWI is too low.

You cannot ask a team to do anything other than win all of your games!

I think that they will lose one...just the odds, no other reason.

[religion_major]

Good capsule summaries of the various conferences by religion major (+1 K)

Thru week #6, here is my take:

1)  Wesley -- In the absence of QOWI numbers, and anticipating an undefeated season, they are the #1 Seed.
2)  Bridgewater -- ODAC Champion.  Finishes with an in-region record of 10-0.
3)  CNU -- USAC.  Captians handle Averett. Have an in-region record of 9-0.
4)  UMHB -- Pool A winner from the ASC.  I won't try to "overplay the hand" so I will say that UMHB finishes in-region 8-2 with losses to CNU and UW-W.
5)  HSU -- Top Pool C bid.  Finishes in-region 8-1.
6)  Trinity -- SCAC Pool A bid.
7)  W&J -- Pool B bid (for the last year).
8 )  Ursinus -- Centennial winner Pool A bid.  Gets sent to the East.

My pairings:

Wesley* hosts CNU
Bridgewater hosts W&J

HSU hosts Trinity
UMHB** hosts a fly-in.

Wesley hosts second and third rounds. 
**UMHB hosts second round.

Ralph,

Given your seedings, I have an issue with your pairings in the Mid-Atlantic sub-region.  W&J is able to drive to Wesley, as is CNU able to drive to Bridgewater.  With this being said, I cannot see why the NCAA in all their stupidity would have 1 vs 3 and 2 vs 7 in the sub-region. 

[Ralph Turner]

Candidly, the way that I seed and the way the pairings come from behind closed doors frequently do not agree.

IMHO, W&J has gotten favorable treatment many times, and I think that they are able to convince the committee and the NCAA that it is in the best interest of the NCAA for them to play Bridgewater and let Wesley and CNU play.

#2 W&J  vs. #6 BC in 2004  And CNU vs. Salisbury

#6 seed W&J got #7 seed CNU in 2002, the same year that #2 seed Trinity hosted #3 seed UMHB, and #4 seed Kings got #5 seed Salisbury.



Remember, geographic proximity is the reason for the "Texas subbracket".

[CaptainChris]

CNU wouldn't have a higher seed with their strength of schedule if they finished out at 9-0 in the region?  Their other out of conference game was Salisbury who beat a likely playoff team in W&J.

[religion_major]

CNU wouldn't have a higher seed with their strength of schedule if they finished out at 9-0 in the region?  Their other out of conference game was Salisbury who beat a likely playoff team in W&J.

CNU would have a higher seed than W&J assuming that both win out.  If they do not then the committee does not even believe in its own criteria.

[CaptainChris]

I am talking about a higher seed then 3rd.  If they were to finish 9-1 with their only loss out of region to MAYBE the #1 seed in the east Rowan and out of conference wins against UMHB and Salisbury.

[religion_major]

I am talking about a higher seed then 3rd.  If they were to finish 9-1 with their only loss out of region to MAYBE the #1 seed in the east Rowan and out of conference wins against UMHB and Salisbury.

They won't jump a 10-0 Bridgewater or a 10-0 Wesley.  Trinity was not a very good 9-0 last year and Theil was not as strong as the typical 10-0 but they still got the #1 and #2 seeds.  CNU's QOWI might not be that much better than Bridgewater's when all is said and done.  While BC's non-conference victories were not against very strong teams, the ODAC as a conference had a much better non-conference record than the USAC did this year. 

[Pat Coleman]

QOWs:
http://www.d3football.com/qow.php

2     Mary Hardin-Baylor     12.200     4-1, 4-1
10    Hardin-Simmons    11.200    3-1, 3-1
12    Christopher Newport    11.000    4-0, 4-1
12   Wesley    11.000    4-0, 5-0
21    Dickinson    10.400    4-1, 4-1
26    DePauw    10.000    4-1, 4-1
26   Washington and Jefferson    10.000    3-1, 4-1
34   Washington and Lee    9.800    4-1, 4-1
36   Thiel    9.750    2-2, 3-3
38    Trinity (Texas)    9.667    5-1, 5-1
28   Ursinus    9.667    3-0, 5-0
40    Bridgewater (Va.)    9.600    5-0, 5-0
40   Huntingdon    9.600    3-2, 3-3
49   Johns Hopkins    9.333    2-1, 2-3
49   Salisbury    9.333    1-2, 2-3
55    Rhodes    9.200    4-1, 4-1
59   Carnegie Mellon    9.000    4-0, 5-0

[Bill McCabe]

Ralph, If TLU were to win out, could they receive a bid at 8-2?

[Ralph Turner]

Good Morning, Bill!

A 2-loss TLU is awfully deep in the bubble.  The implied win over HSU knocks HSU onto the bubble as well.

I don't think that we will see a 2 (in-region) loss team get a Pool C bid.

[Ralph Turner]

One other factor that impacts the ASC dramatically is the leveling out effect that the late season losses by the ASC teams in conference play has on the QOWI.  The ASC has had a good non-conference/in-region record.

Good wins for QOWI:

HSU -- UWSP and Linfield
LaCollege -- Millsaps and LaGrange
McM -- Austin College
MissCollege -- Millsaps and (??LaGrange??)
TLU -- Austin College and Trinity

UMHB -- (??UW-Whitewater??)

No Impact -- (may be detrimental if substituting a win over a D3 would boost the team into another QOWI Quantum (a scientifically precise term for a higher level of value.)

ETBU- Ouachita Baptist
HPU -- Southern Nazarene and Paul Quinn -- if HPU finishes 4-4 in conference play then there is no impact.
Sul Ross -- Southwestern Assemblies

Losses -- These in-region losses hurt QOWI, because you get fewer points towards the index by the value of the game, and because of the multiplier effect.  A loss by ETBU to Trinity will hurt the whole conference if ETBU only finishes 4-5 in region.  ETBU game values would be 10-11 for victories and 2-3 for defeats.  If a win over Trinity would have given ETBU a 5-4 record in South Region games, then a victory over ETBU would be worth 12-13 points and a defeat to ETBU would be worth 4-5 points towards calculating the index.

ETBU -- Trinity
McM -- Menlo
UMHB -- CNU

[CNULifer]

You guys need to rethink all of your south brackets now that BC is not going to be 10-0.  Maybe they should have played a tougher out of conference schedule, hindsight being 20/20 and all.