South Region playoffs

[Josh Bowerman]

It should be noted that CMU stayed in the same spot this week, but flip-flopped with HSU.  HSU jumps two spots as a result of CNU's loss.

[Ron Boerger]

Ron, great points.  What do you see as the key games these last 2 weeks in the South region?

What games aren't key?  For all the players we are worried about, every game is important.  I would like to see Wesley lose but I doubt it's going to happen.     With Trinity, UMHB, and HSU 2-3-4 all that may change will be the order, and even that looks ?able.  Games remaining and likely records of teams at end of year assuming all W's by the contenders:

Trinity:  vs Sewanee (2-8), @Millsaps (6-4)
HSU:  @TLU (6-4), vs. McMurry (3-7)
UMHB:  @ETBU (3-7), vs. HPU (5-5)

Not a lot there to move the QoWIs around.  What HSU gains this week it will lose against McM.   Of course if anyone loses a game, all bets are off. 

[Eh-You]

Interesting that W&L went from No. 9 to No. 10 after their loss to Bridgewater.

I'd think BC would be No. 10.  Hmph.

I agree Kid. Seems not to have much (any) logic behind it. And since we're Hmphing about the rankings - I would normally be spouting off about AU being 9 and CNU being 8 but that will be settled this weekend so I won't waste my keystrokes on it.

[K-Mack]

Ralph, so do you see UMHB and HSU being the 2nd and 3rd seeds?  That order?

I see Trinity going to HSU (assuming that HSU beats TLU and McMurry)
I see someone flown into UMHB.

If top seeds prevail, then HSU meets in Belton (because of head-to-head).

I wonder if Wesley is kept in the South Region, or moved to the East as the #1 seed.

I agree with the Trinity on the road part; a lot of people have Trinity at home, but the loss to TLU would mean they go to either Hardin-Simmons (if they lose to TLU, there will be no playoffs for them) or UMHB, based on the common opponent criteria.

I also think there are three legit No. 1s in the East, and Wilkes is the least likely of them to lose a game, although King's could be tough. No need to move Wesley there, the South is going to be the region needing all of its teams, and if you move someone out, it might be Carnegie Mellon or W&J to the North. I can see scenarios where anywhere from seven to nine East teams get in, and in one of them an East has to move to the South.

Certainly Bridgewater beat W&L head-to-head, but it also lost to Guilford and Emory & Henry ... until W&L's final results come in, I'm sure they grade out ahead of Bridgewater as a one-loss team, which is what it is.

[K-Mack]

I wonder if Wesley is kept in the South Region, or moved to the East as the #1 seed.

Only if Hobart or Wilkes loses a game. Hobart is undefeated with a better QOWI than Wesley and Wilkes is less than a quarter point behind Wesley at this point.

Hobart plays two > .500 teams to finish so if they win out they will be the #1 seed in the East. IMO

Couldn't Cortland get the 1 seed with wins over Rowan and Ithaca? Granted, neither of those would be a playoff team with another loss, but they may be 9 and 10 in the final regional ranking, which could give Cortland an edge in "wins over regionally ranked opponents" criteria.

So much depends on what happens with the big Empire 8, NJAC and LL clashes.

[exmajor]

Ron,

I would think you of all people would not count your chickens before they hatch.  Sure, history says Trinity will make the playoffs, but this is a first time since '96 I think that the conference will come down to the final week.

[Ron Boerger]

Ron,

I would think you of all people would not count your chickens before they hatch.  Sure, history says Trinity will make the playoffs, but this is a first time since '96 I think that the conference will come down to the final week.

I answered the question asked "assuming all wins by the [top 3 Texas] contenders" and further stated "if anyone loses, all bets are off."   I have stated several times in other places that the SCAC championship comes down to the last week.  I had five minutes between meetings yesterday to make that post.

If you want to make the case for the Majors, feel free.  I'm just a TU alumnus these days and don't have to be "fair and balanced" anymore.     

[Bill McCabe]

At this time, I think it is a safe bet in sticking with Trinity.  You don't win 13 or 14 or however many conference championships in a row by accident.  Ron has been very fair in his assesment of Trinity and Millsaps.

[Josh Bowerman]

Having seen both teams play this year, I'd say that Trinity has the better defense, Millsaps the better offense.  That's no news flash to anyone, but does kinda sum up "keys to the game" for both teams.   

[centennialfan15]

So if the regional rankings hold true the rest of the season Dickinson would play at CMU?

[Josh Bowerman]

No, the pairings are rarely 1-8, 2-7, etcetera.  Mileage plays heavily into it, especially in the South and West regions. 

And, given that CMU and W&J are all of about 20 miles apart, I betcha those two schools play each other, should they both win out the rest of the way.

[Snakehandler]

I'll give it a shot:

Dickinson @
Wesley
USAC Winner @
W&J


Trinity @
Hardin Simmons
ODAC Winner @
UMHB

[Josh Bowerman]

I think that's a plausible bracket, snakehandler--but would love to hear the rationale behind it, nonetheless.

[exmajor]

At this time, I think it is a safe bet in sticking with Trinity.  You don't win 13 or 14 or however many conference championships in a row by accident.  Ron has been very fair in his assesment of Trinity and Millsaps.

No doubt he has been fair, always is, did not mean malice in the previous post.  I realize the odds are in Trinity's favor and a 5-3 team at this point, despite the last few weeks, does not deserve alot of playoff talk.  I am actually going to hold my tongue about Millsaps and playoffs until after the game in two weeks.  The possibilities are exciting though!

[Bob.Gregg]

snakehandler,

What do you do with the Tartans of Carnegie-Mellon University?