South Region playoffs

[DPU3619]

Just a question for those who understand the playoff system better than I.  Suppose Millsaps goes 9-1, winning the SCAC AQ.  Also suppose Mississippi College goes 8-2 with their only other loss being to UMHB.  Would there be a reasonable possibility of a Millsaps vs. MS College matchup in the first round of the playoff? 

Not really excited about that potential trip to Belton, are you? 

[CNU85]

UMHB 9-1   I didn't catch this last week somehow.

If they do lose to UW-W, a regional game according to the site under the adjusted regional rules, I doubt they'd get the #1 seed. 

Can the adjusted rules on in-region games be explained in a few easy sentences so that this simpleton can understand it?

[exmajor]

Just a question for those who understand the playoff system better than I.  Suppose Millsaps goes 9-1, winning the SCAC AQ.  Also suppose Mississippi College goes 8-2 with their only other loss being to UMHB.  Would there be a reasonable possibility of a Millsaps vs. MS College matchup in the first round of the playoff? 

Not really excited about that potential trip to Belton, are you? 

I would be far more concerned with Trinity in Jackson in two weeks than where a potential playoff game may shake out.  I think a loss in Jackson by Millsaps eliminates playoff hopes this year.

[Ralph Turner]

UMHB 9-1   I didn't catch this last week somehow.

If they do lose to UW-W, a regional game according to the site under the adjusted regional rules, I doubt they'd get the #1 seed. 

Can the adjusted rules on in-region games be explained in a few easy sentences so that this simpleton can understand it?

FAQ on in-region games.

[frank_ezelle]

Just a question for those who understand the playoff system better than I.  Suppose Millsaps goes 9-1, winning the SCAC AQ.  Also suppose Mississippi College goes 8-2 with their only other loss being to UMHB.  Would there be a reasonable possibility of a Millsaps vs. MS College matchup in the first round of the playoff? 

Not really excited about that potential trip to Belton, are you? 

I would be far more concerned with Trinity in Jackson in two weeks than where a potential playoff game may shake out.  I think a loss in Jackson by Millsaps eliminates playoff hopes this year.

I'm not in any way thinking that Millsaps getting into the playoffs is a guarantee.  No offense to anyone, but if Millsaps loses to Trinity then the best they can do is go 8-2 with a win against no significant opponent (in the eyes of the NCAA playoff committee).  Millsaps will only get into the playoffs via the SCAC AQ.

I don't know what to expect when Trinity comes to town at the end of this month.  Trinity will undoubtedly play better than last year.  I think Millsaps will also play better in everything but the special teams--it would be hard to come close to Chris Jackson's performance last year and that was a big key to the victory.  I do know that it should be one heck of a ballgame with a big Homecoming crowd and it would be hard to find a better way to spend a Saturday afternoon on a hopefully beautiful fall day.  It should be a great event and I hope the crowd is overflowing for both teams.

[Josh Bowerman]

Can anyone (Ralph) provide me with either a link to the ASC football handbook or refresh my memory as to the tiebreaker system?  I can't seem to find the information on the ASC's revamped website (which is pretty nice, IMO)...

Here's my take on the South right now:

AQ conference champs (Pool A):

CC:  Muhlenburg/Dickinson--Muhlenburg could factor in the Pool C discussion if they lose only to Dickinson and wind up 9-1.

SCAC:  Trinity/Millsaps--A 2-loss SCAC team will not get an at-large, so the winner of this game most likely takes all.

USAC:  NC Wesleyan/Christopher Newport--A 3-loss USAC tean will not get an at-large, so the winner of this game takes all.

PAC:  W&J/Waynesburg--Either team finishing at 9-1 has a legitimate shot at a Poll C berth.

ASC:  Mississippi College/UMHB--MC is out with a loss.  If UMHB loses to MC and the Choctaws win out, the Crusaders MUST beat Wisconsin-Whitewater.  I don't think an 8-2 UMHB team gets an at-large, even if CNU wins the USAC and the Crusaders have an in-region win over a playoff team--there could easily be too many 9-1 teams ahead of them.  If UMHB beats MC, then they earn the ASC Pool A (assuming they don't somehow stumble in-conference the rest of the way) and get in, regardless of the outcome against UW-Whitewater.

ODAC:  Randolph Macon/Bridgewater--I think a 2-loss ODAC team is out of the running for a Pool C this year, so the winner of this game takes all here.

Non-AQ Conference Champs (Pool B/C)

ACFC:  Salisbury/Wesley--If Salisubry beats Wesley, the Wolverines are out at 2 losses, even if they have a win over a potential Pool A NC Wesleyan.  If Wesley beats Salisbury, though, each team could legitimately finish 9-1 with a win over a playoff team (depending on what happens in the USAC)

UAA:  Washington University/Case Western University--If Case wins out, they'll be 10-0 and almost a shoo in for a Pool B, given the small pool to choose from.  They're also a North Region team that could conceivably get shipped out-of-region to play a W&J, Waynesburg, Salisbury, Wesley or Muhlenburg/Dickinson.  An 8-2 Wash U. team is done, but if both finish 9-1, then one could lay claim to one of the Pool C slots, while the other would likely get a Pool B as conference champ.  Obviously, a lot of the UAA's chances for multiple bids hinges on how the NWC and ACFC both play out.

Teams that are alive for potential at-large berths (Pool C)

This has to be looked at from a national perspective, so that's what I'll do here.  These are the only teams I think that have a shot at at-large berths into the playoffs this year:

*  Muhlenberg, if they finish 9-1.
*  Waynesburg/W&J, if they finish 9-1.
*  Salisbury, if they finish 9-1.
*  Case Western, if they finish 9-1.
*  UMHB, if they finish 9-1.
*  Wheaton, if they finish 9-1.
*  Alfred, if they finish 9-1.
*  Central, if they finish 9-1.
*  RPI, if they finish 9-1.
*  St. Norbert, if they finish 9-1.
*  St. John's/Bethel/St. Olaf, if any of them finish with one loss.
*  Cortland St./TCNJ/Montclair St., if any of them finish with one loss.
*  Capital/Mt. Union, if they finish 9-1.
*  Occidental, if they finish 9-1.
*  UW-Stevens Point, if they finish 9-1.

I think the Pool C slots will all go to 9-1 teams this year, and that a Pool B-eligible team could legitimately sneak in and take a Pool C--especially if the ACFC and the UAA both finish with two 9-1 teams (the NWC looks likely to only get one this year, due to a jumble of previous losses by teams contending for their conference title).   

IMO, that's all pretty solid reasoning, but invite anyone and everyone to poke holes in it--that's what the message boards are for, after all!   

[Ron Boerger]

Good post, Josh ... but actually should Rhodes win out and Trinity win out then there's a three way tie in the SCAC and Rhodes could get the AQ.  It seems unlikely given the skin-of-their teeth wins (e.g. a one-point win last week against a CC team that had to use its best WR at QB the second half due to injuries) and poor performance early in the season, but it's still possible. 

I remember 2005 was a similar season to this, with many one loss teams, and a lot of potential 9-1's went down unexpectedly the last week.  Will be interesting to see if that happens again in '07. 

[Josh Bowerman]

True. 

Rhodes does already have an out-of-conference loss, however, which I think effectively removes them from Pool C consideration--ergo, their only hope is for a three-way tie atop the SCAC (which happens if Trinity beats Millsaps next week and everyone wins out).

How does the SCAC break ties, Ron?

[Ralph Turner]

+1 Josh! 

The ASC breaks multiple ties by coin flip instead of point spread.

I don't know where the Tie-breaker section has gone. 

[Ron Boerger]

True. 

Rhodes does already have an out-of-conference loss, however, which I think effectively removes them from Pool C consideration--ergo, their only hope is for a three-way tie atop the SCAC (which happens if Trinity beats Millsaps next week and everyone wins out).

How does the SCAC break ties, Ron?

Unfortunately the SCAC removed their sport-specific policy manuals from their website, Josh, so I don't know.  Perhaps our good South Region reporter can contact the SCAC and use the info in a future column. 

Yeah, for Rhodes it's Pool A or bust. 

[DPU3619]

Unfortunately the SCAC removed their sport-specific policy manuals from their website, Josh, so I don't know.  Perhaps our good South Region reporter can contact the SCAC and use the info in a future column. 

Hint hint.  Wink wink.  Nudge Nudge, there eh, Ron?

I had spoken with DePauw Sports Information and had sent an email to the home office earlier today because I had a few readers inquire about that very issue. 

In the event of a 3 way tie between Rhodes, Milsaps, and Trinity, the tiebreak would be number of losses.  So Trinity would win the AQ at 9-1 while MC and RC are out at 8-2.

The home office tells me to keep in mind this isn't the tiebreak for all 3 way ties.  Something about non-conference games or something.

If one team was eliminated from such a tiebreak, you would then revert to head-to-head victory for the two remaining teams. 

In such an event that all three teams shared a similiar numbers of losses, the tiebreak would be the beloved OWP. 

[Carl Menist]

Unfortunately the SCAC removed their sport-specific policy manuals from their website, Josh, so I don't know.  Perhaps our good South Region reporter can contact the SCAC and use the info in a future column. 

Hint hint.  Wink wink.  Nudge Nudge, there eh, Ron?

I had spoken with DePauw Sports Information and had sent an email to the home office earlier today because I had a few readers inquire about that very issue. 

In the event of a 3 way tie between Rhodes, Milsaps, and Trinity, the tiebreak would be number of losses.  So Trinity would win the AQ at 9-1 while MC and RC are out at 8-2.

The home office tells me to keep in mind this isn't the tiebreak for all 3 way ties.  Something about non-conference games or something.

If one team was eliminated from such a tiebreak, you would then revert to head-to-head victory for the two remaining teams. 

In such an event that all three teams shared a similiar numbers of losses, the tiebreak would be the beloved OWP. 

When it all gets down to it you just have to win! With something as important as a conference championship and an NCAA playoff bid, that is how it should be.

I think that may be why the chatter on the message board is down. Not really a whole lot to say at this point.

It is down to the "nut cutting".

[Major Rev]

I think that's exactly it, Big C.  These two weeks will tell the story.  (Had noticed that myself...)

[Llamaguy]

Here's my take on the South right now:


ODAC:  Randolph Macon/Bridgewater--I think a 2-loss ODAC team is out of the running for a Pool C this year, so the winner of this game takes all here.

IMO, that's all pretty solid reasoning, but invite anyone and everyone to poke holes in it--that's what the message boards are for, after all!   

If Bridgewater wins out thus eliminating RMC and HSC wins out, both BC & HSC finish 5-1 in conference and HSC holds head-to-head tie breaker for automatic bid. BC would drop into the 9-1 teams vying for a Pool C.

note: 4 tough games for BC so this may not be likely but it is possible. 

[Highlander]

Concerning the USASOUTH Conf.- It was stated that no three loss team would get an at large bid. Does anyone think there might be a slight chance Maryville could get an at large if they are able to win out. That would give them an 8-2 record. With their losses coming to NCWC and CNU. Definitely not trying to put the cart before the horse, or trying to say that MC should get a bid. I am just curious to know what everyone else thinks.