South Region playoffs

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph, I agree about W&J.

But Waynesburg's national respect this year will come as a team that lost to W&J.  That's not nearly the same, as you well know.

A 9-1 Waynesburg team will be the first South Pool C, if the committee gets to a Pool C from the South.

Bob, I find it hard to believe that not a single Pool C bid will come from the South, especially with all of the 2-loss teams that seem to be populating the bottom of all 4 Regional Rankings.

[altor]

I think that the "East" bracket includes:

NJAC
LL
E8
NEFC
MAC
Pool C from upstate NY
Pool C from upstate NY
Case Western Reserve, which gets moved into the East.

Ralph,
being a "yankee" infiltrating this South Region discussion, I'm interested in who you have as the 9th playoff team in the North that requires the committee to move CWRU to the East?

The only team I can think of is 2-loss Capital.  Is that who you are thinking? Or are you considering them higher on the list and Mt St Joe as the 9th team?

Incidentally, something for this group to think about, I'm actually thinking that if Case loses on Saturday, they are out completely (Pool B and C).  The way I see it, this leaves an open spot in the North, which could possibly get filled by a 9-1 Waynesburg.  (?)  (At the moment, I have Capital as the best 2-loss team, but they don't have a line in my bracket....yet)

[Llamaguy]

Well Waynesburg is ranked 6th in the NCAA South bracket. There may be some national respect for Waynesburg after all. From my recollection the Regional Top 10's are the teams on the NCAA's radar. If they stay a #6 and finish with 1 loss I think they will get in. IMO.

[Bob.Gregg]

I agree Llamaguy.

I think the committee gave Waynesburg plenty of credit, ranking them sixth in the South.

But they now need to win a game that doesn't count for them.

I know, I know, it's not in the criteria...But it IS on the mind...which makes it a criteria.

[Bill McCabe]

As of today, who do you see as the 8 teams in the south?

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

I think it's pretty cut-and-dry this year...

Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC Champion) (Pool A)
Muhlenberg (CC Champion) (Pool A)
North Carolina Wesleyan (USAC Champion) (Pool A)
R-MC or H-SC (ODAC Champion) (Pool A)
Trinity or Millsaps (SCAC Champion) (Pool A)
Washington & Jefferson (PAC Champion) (Pool A)
Wesley (Pool B)
Salisbury (Pool B/C)

Obviously, with Waynesburg's loss to Geneva last week, they played themselves out of a possible Pool C berth. No other south region team (to my knowledge) has only one in-region loss.

[Carl Menist]

As of today, who do you see as the 8 teams in the south?

Bill -

There is a good deal of disussion at the South Region fan poll section as well as the General / Pool C section. There are also similar regional posts in the East, North and West sections.

Based on these posts, many of which are very insightful and enlightening, it looks like the South could possibly have more than 8 teams with a reasonable shot at a bid.

The strongest regions are the North and South regions. There is some discussion that the East may only have 6 teams and the west maybe less than 8.

Based on the limited understanding I have, it seems that an advantage will accrue to the south because of Wesley and Salisbury being likely Pool B selections.

This coupled with the fact that NC Wesleyan in not ranked in the top 10, at least as of last week, provides an opportunity for the south to have up to 3 teams on the board for consideration for Pool C bids by the committee. If NC W moves into the top 10, 2 teams. The thing that is significant is that with Wesley and Salisbury likely getting Pool B invites, the 8, 9 and 10 teams have a chance for a look.

Based on the win loss records in region and the SOS numbers published this week, teams that could be included in the top 10 include the top 8 teams from last week followed by,( in order of regional record and SOS),  NC Wesleyian (7-1 / 7-2) SOS 49.7%, Millsaps (7-2 / 7-2) SOS 54.1%, Dickinson (7-2 /7-2) SOS 50.6, Hampton -Sydney (7-2 /7-2) SOS 49.3, Mississippi College (7-2 / 7-2) SOS 44.9 followed by other south region teams with 2 loses Washington and Lee, Depauw and Ursinus.

Important match-ups this week-end  include the Randolph -Macon / Hampton- Sydney game and the Trinity  / Austin College games for the remaining AQs. The first game is between 1 and 2 in the conference and is a championship game, Trinity is the favorite in the Austin game.

If RM or Trinity lose, they would be likely move to the short list for Pool C consideration.

One other interesting issue is the loss last week by Waynesburg to provisional Geneva. Technically, the committee looks at the in region results. for selection purposes. However, the loss last week to Geneva, a team with a pretty good record, could negatively effect Waynesburg when subjectiviy is brought into the equation. The Waynesburg numbers are (6-1 / 7-2) SOS 42.4%.

If you strictly took the South teams by record then by SOS, the list would be the same as last week, reshuffled in order just a bit with NC Wesleyian being added in at spot 8, Waynesburg moving down to 9, by virtue of it's 6-1 regional record, followed by Millsaps moving in at 10.

Based on the aforementioned strengths of the other regions, coupled with several head to head match-ups between other region's teams with one loss now just ahead of our south two loss  teams, gives Pool C eligible teams  making the final south rankings a reasonable shot a getting in in my opinion.

[Bob.Gregg]

Obviously, with Waynesburg's loss to Geneva last week, they played themselves out of a possible Pool C berth. No other south region team (to my knowledge) has only one in-region loss.

Officially, Waynesburg's loss to Geneva is a non-factor.  They Golden Tornado is a first-year transitional team and the game is not included in the criteria.

Waynesburg is a one-regional-loss team.

[Josh Bowerman]

I think Matt has nailed it--the only real question in the South is the seeding/pairings.  And we know for sure the SCAC rep will visit Belton in the first round.

[Carl Menist]

Interesting -

South 
1.  Washington and Jefferson  6-0 9-0 
2.  Wesley  6-1 8-1 
3.  Muhlenberg  9-0 9-0 
4.  Mary Hardin-Baylor  8-1 8-1 
5.  Salisbury  4-1 8-1 
6.  Trinity (Texas)  7-1 8-1 
7.  Randolph-Macon  8-1 8-1 
8.  Millsaps  7-2 7-2 
9.  Hampden-Sydney  6-2 7-2 
10.  Waynesburg  6-1 7-2 

[exmajor]

Millsaps has only one conference loss, for what it is worth.

[Ron Boerger]

It's in-region record followed by overall record.  Conference records are not a factor when seeding/selecting playoff teams. 

That said, good to see Millsaps move to #8.  There are a lot of two loss teams in all of the regions so the Majors' chances are looking up!

It is surprising that they dropped Waynesburg for losing a game against a provisional D3 member.  Millsaps needs to take care of business against B-SC, not that I expect there to be any doubt whatsoever about who wins that game.

[Carl Menist]

It's in-region record followed by overall record.  Conference records are not a factor when seeding/selecting playoff teams. 

That said, good to see Millsaps move to #8.  There are a lot of two loss teams in all of the regions so the Majors' chances are looking up!

It is surprising that they dropped Waynesburg for losing a game against a provisional D3 member.  Millsaps needs to take care of business against B-SC, not that I expect there to be any doubt whatsoever about who wins that game.

Ron --- I am pretty pumped!!! --- even if things don't work out rith regard to a Pool C bid, it is very nice for Millsaps to be recognized in this way as a quality / top tier program. Mike Dubose, his staff and the young men that field the team deserve it!

Additionally, I am still pretty high on the Austin College 'Roos for this week-end!!!

[Ralph Turner]

It is surprising that they dropped Waynesburg for losing a game against a provisional D3 member.  ...

Ron, I have another theory on the use of Geneva in the evaluations.  They have been a reliable "yardstick" in the secondary criteria, playing as a first-year provisional in the Pres AC.  They provided "common-opponent" status for Salisbury, W&J and Waynesburg.

http://www.d3football.com/school_info.php?year=2007&school=Geneva

[Bob.Gregg]

Ralph, I would agree with the notion that you could use the secondary criteria when comparing Salisbury and Waynesburg.  And only then if you found most other things to be relatively equal, which their in-region record will not be.

Waynesburg 7-1
Salisbury 5-1