MBB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[pbrooks3]

I'll run my predictions later tonight or in the morning. 

[jekelish]

Millsaps may need to win the AQ to get into the tourney, but in my opinion they are the most talented team I've seen this year in the SCAC.  Centre plays a better brand of basketball, but when the Majors are on, they are excellent.  Too much athleticism.

I say this fully aware of the fact that Centre won head to head.  Like I said, Centre plays a better brand of basketball.  Sometimes smart, fundamental basketball trumps athleticism.

However, if I were an opposing coach I'd be more afraid of Millsaps, because they are more difficult to match up with at this level.

[DPU3619]

If Centre wins their bracket at Conway, and Millsaps and DePauw are in the finals of the other bracket, and both have no more losses until then, I would think that the winner of that game regardless of whether they win the tournament, would get an at large bid. Am I too naive?

That scenario is not necessarily a given.  I could still forsee all 3 teams getting in.  DPU and Millsaps keep winning, Maryville makes a mistake in the GSAC, Va. Wesleyan makes a mistake in the ODAC and suddenly it's a whole different scenario.  It's still possible. 

On the other hand, the situation could present itself that the loser of that game could earn the bid over the winner of that game.  Remember, if Millsaps beats DePauw, they still only split their season series.  DePauw has a better record against Top 25 teams and the higher OWP and OOWP.  Millsaps has the better region record.  That game doesn't tell us much of anything other than changing the region record around.

To answer your question, I think we're still too far away to know exactly what that potential DPU/Millsaps semi-final will mean.

[frank_ezelle]

Let's don't forget that at the moment it is about 50-50 that DePauw and Centre will be in the same bracket.  Maybe I should say the more likely scenario is that DePauw and Centre will be in the same bracket.

DePauw and OU are tied at 9-3.  If OU beats Centre on Friday then OU is the 2nd seed unless they have changed the tie breaker system.  Even if DePauw beats OU on Sunday to make the two teams tied, the head-to-head is even and then you go to who beat the highest ranked opponent.  That would be OU beating Centre.

If OU loses to Centre and then beats DePauw, then there is a tie for second (assuming that DePauw beats Sewanee) and OU wins the head-to-head.  It seems to me that OU is the second seed in the East if they just get a win this weekend.

[OLD STUDENT/ATHLETE]

Assuming DePauw and Centre are in the same bracket, DePauw beats Centre in the semis and then beats Millsaps in the Finals. Do all 3 get in?

[Ralph Turner]

...
On the other hand, the situation could present itself that the loser of that game could earn the bid over the winner of that game.  Remember, if Millsaps beats DePauw, they still only split their season series.  DePauw has a better record against Top 25 teams and the higher OWP and OOWP.  Millsaps has the better region record.  That game doesn't tell us much of anything other than changing the region record around.

To answer your question, I think we're still too far away to know exactly what that potential DPU/Millsaps semi-final will mean.

Point of clarification --
"Record versus Top 25" is not a criterion.

[pbrooks3]

Millsaps may need to win the AQ to get into the tourney, but in my opinion they are the most talented team I've seen this year in the SCAC.  Centre plays a better brand of basketball, but when the Majors are on, they are excellent.  Too much athleticism.

I say this fully aware of the fact that Centre won head to head.  Like I said, Centre plays a better brand of basketball.  Sometimes smart, fundamental basketball trumps athleticism.

However, if I were an opposing coach I'd be more afraid of Millsaps, because they are more difficult to match up with at this level.

Good post - agreed Millsaps is scary because they are so athletic.  Except for the Britt 3, they win the game at Danville earlier as we all know.

[pbrooks3]

Let's don't forget that at the moment it is about 50-50 that DePauw and Centre will be in the same bracket.  Maybe I should say the more likely scenario is that DePauw and Centre will be in the same bracket.

DePauw and OU are tied at 9-3.  If OU beats Centre on Friday then OU is the 2nd seed unless they have changed the tie breaker system.  Even if DePauw beats OU on Sunday to make the two teams tied, the head-to-head is even and then you go to who beat the highest ranked opponent.  That would be OU beating Centre.

If OU loses to Centre and then beats DePauw, then there is a tie for second (assuming that DePauw beats Sewanee) and OU wins the head-to-head.  It seems to me that OU is the second seed in the East if they just get a win this weekend.

Had to think about it for a moment; however, I think your assessment is correct. 

[pbrooks3]

Friday, February 22

I like Trinity to pick up a win at Austin, probably by 5 points.  TU has leaked oil of late with injuries, but this weekend gives them a chance to build a little mo for the tournament.  I am going with a major upset at Colorado College with CC pulling out a 4 point win over Southwestern for their first victory.  Southwestern has been hitting their stride of late, but they're still trying to find the correct combination of players each game.  DePauw gets right back on the winning track by beating Sewanee by 12.  Mike Moore will score 20+ in this game.  Maybe the game of the night is in Atlanta with Centre prevailing against Oglethorpe by 7 points.  Oglethorpe has the troops to pull out a win, but Centre matches up well with the fast-paced Stormy Petrels and Centre continues playing solid defense & shoots a decent percentage for the win. 

Saturday, February 23

Colorado College's winning streak ends at one as Trinity wins by 13.  Good ballgame in Jackson between Hendrix and Millsaps.  I see Millsaps winning by 6 and creating 20 turnovers against the Warriors.  Look for a  head-to-head battle in the post with Montgomery scoring more points than King and King winning the rebounding war by one.  Birmingham Southern has been a bit of a Jekkle and Hyde team during the past several weeks so this could be a game for the taking by Rhodes.  However, I think BS wins by 8 with superior 3-point shooting.

Sunday, February 24

Southwestern's final game in Austin goes better than the one in Colorado Springs as they triumph by 6.  DePauw plays their best game of the season on the road by defeating OU by 13 points and getting revenge for the earlier loss in Greencastle.  Schott and Oilar play big, and DPU wins the battle of 3-pointers.  Centre struggles to the finish line on the mountain against an overmatched Sewanee group.  Centre breaks away in the final 2 minutes for a 4 point win.

[scottiedoug]

Maryville is a lock to go into the NCAA as a Pool B team so how it does Sat. (reg. season) and next weekend (GSAC tourney) should have no effect on how much the SCAC is represented.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Maryville is a lock to go into the NCAA as a Pool B team so how it does Sat. (reg. season) and next weekend (GSAC tourney) should have no effect on how much the SCAC is represented.

Anyone have a rabbits foot or horseshoe? Not sure anyone wants to throw the "lock" word around!

[DPU3619]

Maryville is a lock to go into the NCAA as a Pool B team so how it does Sat. (reg. season) and next weekend (GSAC tourney) should have no effect on how much the SCAC is represented.

My mistake, friend.  Forgot they were a B.  I take it back.  That would make Millsaps the 3rd Pool C team in the South.  If VA Wesleyan or DePauw stumbles, they could become the second, which might be good enough.

Assuming DePauw and Centre are in the same bracket, DePauw beats Centre in the semis and then beats Millsaps in the Finals. Do all 3 get in?

As each week goes by, I think this scenario is less likely.  The only way (in my opinion) would be for Millsaps to beat DePauw in the finals and not the other way around as you have mentioned.  DePauw has the better playoff case right now than Millsaps does.  If DePauw wins until the conference final, Millsaps just isn't going to get by them.  I think Millsaps would be in a must-win on Sunday in such a situation. 

DePauw's in good shape if they win out until the conference final.  That'd get them to 19-5 in region with a conference final loss, I believe.  I would be surprised if they got left out come Selection Monday if it happened that way.  They're no guarantee, but the numbers are sort of favorable for them.

Even if DePauw loses one this weekend and falls by the Pool C wayside for good, I just don't know about Millsaps, regardless of their effort in Conway.  I still believe that it's going to depend an awful lot on how the other conferences shake down.  The region rankings and the OWP #'s are hurting the Majors.  The question will be how many projected Pool A's lose and then snatch up Pool C bids.  If it's only a couple, all the better for Millsaps.  They'll have a really good chance then.  If it's more, well, let's not even bring it up.  The only way they'll know for sure is if they win the tourney and earn the A.

Again, we've got one more region ranking and two more weekends of funny stuff to iron out before the dust settles.

[OLD STUDENT/ATHLETE]

With UW-Oshkosh's loss last night and a potential loss by UW-Platteville this weekend, and a win by Millsaps this weekend, they should move up in the Top 25; and DePauw should enter the Top 25 with a sweep this weekend. If Centre sweeps this weekend also, there (Millsaps and DePauw) regional ranking should also go up. I'm optimistic, I think all 3 will get in, unless either Millsaps or DePauw looses in the first round of the tournament.

[pbrooks3]

I don't have the same optimism some of you have about getting in on a Pool C basis. I do hope I'm wrong. Probably the most likely scenario is 2 teams (the conference tourney winner-A and 1 team might make  Pool C from the SCAC). That is surely not a given though. As Wes noted, what occurs in other league tournaments will have a big bearing on our overall Pool C prospects.  I would like to think the Colonels get in even if they don't win the conference tournament. Centre's mindset, just like DePauw's and Millsaps' should be to win every game left and the tournament. In other words, don't leave the D3 tournament selection in the Pool C column.

[frank_ezelle]

If Wes is correct, then I guess I must be a huge OU fan for this weekend.  It would be hard to believe that a team like Millsaps would be denied a berth in the tournament because of two tough road losses to regionally ranked teams and then a loss in the SCAC tournament.  As I posted recently, I'm starting to believe that Millsaps is not a school that can count on an at-large bid in any sport.

Regarding this weekend, I enjoyed reading pbrooks3's predictions.  I'll refrain from predictions because I've been wrong most of the year in my picks.  I will point out the critical games of the weekend, which are many:

----Hendrix at Millsaps:  As mentioned earlier, a Millsaps loss probably means no at-large berth for Millsaps.  Hendrix is in a 3-way tie in the loss column for the 3-5 spots in the West.  A loss for Hendrix could easily mean that they are sitting out the tournament they host.

----Trinity at Austin--Southwestern at Colorado--Southwestern at Austin:  Big games for Austin and Southwestern in the battle to get into the SCAC Tournament.  

----Centre at OU:  Centre has clinched the #1 seed in the East and probably an NCAA berth, but they need to position themselves for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.  For OU this game will clinch the #2 seed in the East (I believe) and I expect a big effort from their team.  The first meeting was a 12 point win by Centre after Centre led by 18 at the half, but that was on Jan. 4th.  I'm not sure how much each team has changed since that time.

----DePauw at OU:  This game is critical for DePauw if they want an at-large berth.  If OU falls to Centre, then this game will also determine the 2nd and 3rd seed in the East.  For reasons that are not 100% basketball talent related, I actually think that the better draw for the semi-final might be Centre instead of Millsaps, so maybe being the 3rd seed in the East isn't so bad.  We can get into that next week.