MBB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[FlightofthePetrel]

Thank you very much... I figured it had to be something like that.  I appreciate the update so quickly... looks like he might get there this year.

[frank_ezelle]

Just a quick update on the final Millsaps game.  Coach Wise went to his bench early and often with 10 players getting double-digit minutes, the 11th player getting 9 minutes, and Allen Odum sat out the game.  Chad Songy started at the point and led Millsaps scorers with 22 points in 22 miinutes.  Edrick Montgomery followed with 21 points and 12 rebounds and Rodney Rogan had 14.  Here's the box score link:  http://www.scac-online.org/basketball_mens/rcmc.htm

[pbrooks3]

I like the way Centre plays defense and project them winning the whole thing.  I see Millsaps going down to a streaking Hendrix in round 1 and Oglethorpe dropping one to Trinity. DePauw wins round one, but goes down to Trinity.  Centre and Trinity collide in the final with Centre winning by 5.

[d3allstar]

centre will not beat southwestern.

[frank_ezelle]

I don't see any reason why Centre wouldn't be a strong favorite over Southwestern.  SW lost by 17 at Centre, Centre is 20-4 and SW is 11-14, SW has lost 8 of their last 11 games and Centre has won 16 of their last 17--it would be absurd to think that Southwestern will win this game.

On the other hand, Rhodes beat Trinity in the first round last year so Southwestern might be the team that pulls the big upset this year.  DePauw over Sewanee seems like a lock given the results from Friday (won 94-82 and were up 51-35 at the half) but Sewanee did have an early season win against DePauw.

Trinity and Oglethorpe is a tossup as a 4 vs. 5 matchup should be.  OU won the one meeting this season by 6 points at home which probably translates into a tie on a neutral court.  Trinity has won 5 of 6 but they did get outscored by 21 in the second half in their recent loss to Hendrix.  OU was on a hot streak until they lost to Millsaps, Centre and DePauw in the last 2 weeks but those are the top 3 seeds.

As for Hendrix and Millsaps, I think most people who are looking for a 1st round upset would look at this game.  Hendrix is a tough team as they proved by their two wins in Texas this weekend and their very narrow losses to DePauw and Centre the previous weekend.  Millsaps is also playing well with 9 wins in the last 11 games, losing to DePauw and Trinity when last second shots were off the mark.  This should be a good game just like all 7 games should be very good games at this year's tournament.

So after all that, here are my predictions:

1st round:
Centre over Southwestern by double-digits
Millsaps over Hendrix, less than 10 points
DePauw over Sewanee by double-digits
Oglethorpe over Trinity, less than 10 points

2nd round:
Millsaps over Centre, by 6 points or less
Oglethorpe over DePauw by 5 points or less (there's a surprise team every year and I'm taking a guess that it will be OU)

Final:
Millsaps over Oglethorpe by 7 points, giving Millsaps 20 wins for the year.

[etg]

(El Tea Gray---re: SCAC Men's Basketball Tournament)

frank,
"Millsaps wins the men's tournament".  Are you are purely dreaming this Sunday afternoon? pbrooks3 is more on the right track; "defense wins basketball tournaments".

                                                                       

[Mark Hengel]

Okay, here comes my prediction for the SCAC tournament: Centre beats DePauw in the final.

Now, here is my reasoning. And my reasoning is based mainly on statistics, because I attended only one game this year and therefore cannot handicap the match-ups based on emperical knowledge. Plus, my experience as a Hendrix grad and fan has taught me never to trust my bias.

The SCAC schedule included 70 intra-league games and only 12 times did the team with a lower rank (based on the year-end rankings) defeat a higher-ranked opponent. That means the higher-ranked team won 83-percent of the time. That's a pretty good clip. What's more, only three times did a team ranked fourth or lower knock off one of the SCAC's three top-ranked teams. And we can attribute two of those wins to Trinity's season sweep against Millsaps.

That is why I don't see any team ranked lower than Millsaps advancing to the title game. The SCAC has three strong teams at the top of its rankings this year, and I just can't believe any team that did not manage to win more than 11 SCAC games could top one, much less two, of the teams that did. True, Trinity has tradition, Hendrix has its hot streaks, and Oglethorpe's offense opens things up, but overcoming two top-ranked teams is asking two much (three much in Hendrix's case) of any one team.

Now, keep in mind, I acknowledge that one of the top three teams might fall. But not two. And I also don't believe that Millsaps can top Centre in the semi-finals. But I will admit that this assumption is based on my personal bias.

So, if I put so much stock in the rankings, why have I chosen no. 2 Centre over no.1 DePauw? That answer stems Centre's consistency. Consistency because even when Centre has lost, it has kept the score close. I think Centre's consistency makes them much tougher to topple than DePauw. As frank_ezelle has pointed out in a couple of his posts, the DU Tigers suffer from let downs — like dropping a game to no. 8 Sewanee or letting Centre beat them mercilessly. DePauw did top Centre early in the year, but thanks to its 32-point drubbing of the Tigers on Feb. 3, Centre outscored DePauw by 26 points this year. And a 26-point spread is one number everyone can trust.

[DPU3619]

centre will not beat southwestern.

Coach Raleigh, is that you?   

[d3allstar]

oh guys. southwestern is capable of beating anyone. whereas they have had a couple rough games, they did hand the #13 U of Chicago thier worst loss of the year. Powell and Caplan are starting to feel it, and the bench is extremely deep. it'll be close, but SU will dominate the free throw line and get the win.

[frank_ezelle]

(El Tea Gray---re: SCAC Men's Basketball Tournament)

frank,
"Millsaps wins the men's tournament".  Are you are purely dreaming this Sunday afternoon? pbrooks3 is more on the right track; "defense wins basketball tournaments".

                                                                       

etg,

You know I wasn't going to make any prediction that didn't end up with Millsaps winning the tournament.  In some years that's just the wishful thinking of a fan but this year it is as good a choice as any other team.  A couple of things to keep in mind:

--Millsaps started the season 4-5 so they are 13-3 in thier last 16 games.  During that stretch they lost to DePauw by 2 and to Trinity by 1, missing shots at the buzzer for the win.  To be fair, they also won some close games at the end as did Centre and DePauw and every other SCAC team.

--How much Allen Odum can play will be a key (he did not play in the loss to Trinity).  The silver lining is that his lack of playing time of late has allowed others to step up.  Chris Sanders scored 35 points two weekends ago and won SCAC POW.  Chad Songy started against Rhodes and scored 22 points.  It will take some depth to win 3 in a row and Millsaps developed some in the last couple of weeks.

Now, all that being said, I would suggest that no team has better than a 1 in 3 chance of winning this tournament.  I base this on probability.  For example, the odds of flipping a coin 3 times and having it come up heads all 3 times is 1 in 8 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2).  You can calculate the odds of a team winning the SCAC Tournament in the same manner.  Take #1 seed DePauw for example and use numbers that a DePauw fan might use:

Odds of beating Sewanee:  4 out of 5
Odds of beating Trinity/Oglethorpe winner:  2 of 3
Odds of winning finals:  3 of 5

Multiply .80 x .667 x .60 and you get .32 or just below a 1 in 3 chance of winning the tournament. 

Or, if you are a person who likes to use history as a guide, how about this stat:  In the last 4 years, only once has the #1 seed even made it to the final game.  DePauw lost in the semi's in 2003, Trinity won in 2004, Southwestern lost in the semi's in 2005, and Trinity lost in the 1st round in 2006.  It should be a great weekend and I hope folks come to Memphis to support their team and the SCAC.

[TeeItHigh]

DePauw has to be the slight favorite...they are the defending champs and still so until someone beats them.  I still contend that they may be struggling just a little bit, but we'll see.  Centre is on fire right now (is anyone playing better than them at the moment - 16 of the last 17) and Millsaps may have a shot as well, although they better not overlook Hendrix. 

Who's the Player of the Year?  or Newcomer of the Year?  or Defensive Player of the Year?  What do you guys think?

[pbrooks3]

I have seen all of teams play this year with the exception of one non-tournament team, Austin.  What impresses me most about Centre is consistency and the hard man-to-man defense they put on their opponents.  Their biggest obstacle to winning is the turnover bug which a team like Millsaps will attempt to exploit.  If their guards are solid along with average post play and 35% 3-point shooting, they have an excellent chance of winning.  Look at the stats on defense for the Colonels - they allow about 55 points per game in the conference.  Margin of victory is  15.  Granted they've lost two key road games at Millsaps & Depauw.  However, they blasted DePauw at Danville by more than 30, and the Millsaps game in Jackson was probably their poorest performance of the season. 

Sleepers in my opinion are Hendrix and Trinity.  I don't think you can ever count out Pat Cunningham and his teams.  I realize Trinity lost one this past weekend - they are still dangerous.  Hendrix has made a wonderful end-of-season run, and very easily could have beaten Centre in their Grove Gym final if they'd maintained a bit more poise in the stretch.  I can't see Hendrix winning 3 games, but they could still surprise.

I am not gung-ho on Oglethorpe for 3 games because of their reliance on the 3-pointer, but you can never tell.  Several years ago I remember them eliminating a better Centre team in the first round with great shooting.  It would take an incredible hot spell for them to go all the way!

Agreed that DePauw is the champ still and they are tough in the paint and have a way of grinding out wins.  Millsaps is clearly the most athletic squad I've seen play, but I really believe one of their tournament opponents can take them out of their fast-paced style.  If it's a defensive game between Millsaps and an opponent, I think the Majors are in trouble.  I saw an interesting game in Memphis between the Majors and Rhodes earlier.  Millsaps took control of the game early by dictating tempo and getting tons of turnovers.  They were up 12-15 at the half on the Lynx.  Rhodes came out to start the 2nd half on fire and opened up a 4 point lead in the 1st five minutes.  Millsaps simply got out of rhythm and turned it over.  With a timeout by the coach, they completely reversed things again when they returned to the court, taking a 10 point lead in the next 3 minutes and coasted from there to victory.  Had Rhodes been a better team with a good leader on the court, they would have won that game.  If Millsaps is victorious, their exciting fast-paced style could prove to be a positive in the D3 tournament.

One thing we can be sure of this weekend; there will be some surprises.  Expect this one to be a fun tournament.

 

 

[DPU3619]

I'm not so big on OU as the sexy sleeper-upset pick.  How can you go to the top two teams in the league on the final weekend and lose by 28 and 19 respectively and still be expected to upset people?  Add in that they didn't beat DePauw, Centre, or Millsaps this year, and I'm having a hard time buying it. 

They might beat Trinity.  Depends of which group of Coach Cunningham's boys show up.  Is it "lose twice to Hendrix by an average of 17 points" Trinity, or is it "sweep Millsaps and be the only team that beat them in the conference other than DePauw" Trinity?  If you get the latter of those two this weekend, watch out for TU.  They might have a little extra motivation, anyhow.  The other big story from last year's tourney was Rhodes beating Trinity in the first round.

[Stripes]

DePauw has to be the slight favorite...they are the defending champs and still so until someone beats them.  I still contend that they may be struggling just a little bit,

I haven't posted to this board for a couple of years. I see the same group of die-hard fans are still here. 

I have to agree that DPU is inconsistent. I'd like to submit, though, that we throw out the Centre - DPU game at Danville on Feb. 3. Here's why.
Centre came out in the opening minutes with a VERY physical game. That's OK, DePauw can be physical, too. However, the officiating seemed to be allowing Centre to bang and bump, but not DePauw. Coaches, fans, and parents were screaming at the refs to clean it up or call both ways. That didn't happen. DePauw was taken out of their game by inconsistent calls. That didn't cause the defeat, but it sure contributed to the 32 point margin.

One ref seemed to be looking for a reason to eject Coach Fenlon, but a fan took the bullet and was tossed for calling him a "Bully". Who is this nutty ref that wants silence from the visitors' fans? It turns out that he's a Danville resident. Seems that he's officiated in 7 of the 11 home games at Centre this year. Four of those had technical calls called on the visiting team.

I detect a pattern.... We all know that it's hard to win on the road in this conference. Long bus rides and late nights wear down all players. We also all know that sometimes questionable calls seem to go to the home team. That's true in TX, MS, GA, IN, etc. However, 7 of 11 officiating teams with a hometown resident smacks of ... something.

Come on SCAC, clean up the officiating problem and let the game be settled by the play on the floor.

Having said that, I believe that the tournament is anyone's to win. I for one can't wait for Friday.

[frank_ezelle]

A very well thought out post from pbrooks3 and it would be hard to argue with much of what he wrote.  If Millsaps plays like they are capable of playing for all three games, then I think they have a good shot at winning the tournament--the problem is that the same could be said about the majority of the teams in the tournament.  

To be honest, I'm not so sure that a team has to rise to a higher level to win this tournament.  It may be enough to just keep from falling victim to the pressure of the tournament.  With the SCAC regular season there was always the fall back of knowing that there was new life for 8 of the 10 teams with the NCAA Tournament bid going to the SCAC Tournament winner.  Now we are in a situation where a loss ends your season (with the exception of the two teams that might get an at-large bid).  

With the pressure factor in mind, I think the picking OU as a potential spoiler might be because of the number of seniors and juniors on the team.  They really didn't have much to play for this past weekend with the 4, 5 and 6 seed all being about the same.  I think they'll be a little more motivated this weekend and it should be an interesting matchup with the size of Trinity vs. the guard play of OU (and OU does have a pretty good big man in the middle).