MBB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[JJFlash]

It looks like everyone has to weigh in with their observations/predictions about the upcoming tournament.  Since I did not see every team play, I can't give a truly considered and informed opinion.

There are two things I feel qualified to say however.  First, the field of eight seems to have in store for us all of the makings of the type of games that make the first four rounds of D-I "March Madness" so compelling.  Every game seems to go down to the final minute or so and all of the Cinderella's (both genuine and pretenders) deliver the best they can.  To me this field is very close top to bottom and the hot (and/or lucky) team is going to emerge on top.

Second, having watched Trinity most of the year, It's my belief that they have enough horses to pull it off.  It also is my equal belief that they don't have enough horses to play anything less than their A GAME to pull it off.

I look forward to Basketball, Bar-B-Que, and Blues in Memphis!   

[DPU3619]

I'm a little interested in what the Pool C implications might be for this weekend. 

I'm not going to say that DePauw is in no matter what, because I don't know if that's necessarily the case.  They might creep back up into the poll this week.  They were the third team out last week.  They've got a nice QOWI, 15th best in Pat's listing last week.  It sounds like a pretty good case, but I'm not excited about sweating out Selection Sunday if it comes to that.

Centre and anybody else, for that matter, is going to have to win to get in.  Despite Centre being 20-4, they are 53rd in QOWI, and 8th in the region.

[frank_ezelle]

I remember when the SCAC first went to this conference tournament and there were folks who didn't like the concept, especially the idea that the automatic NCAA bid would go to the tournament winner and not the regular season winner.  I think that time has proven this to be a great plus for the conference and it certainly keeps the interest up and the motivation up for a lot of teams that were out of the conference race at the halfway mark.  It's a shame that the tournament doesn't get bigger crowds but maybe that will come at some point in the future.

DPU3619 had a post while I was typing--as he points out, a really good team from the SCAC can win their way into the NCAA's with an outstanding regular season just as Trinity did last year.  That certainly makes the SCAC Tournament work better because a truly deserving team can win an NCAA bid without having to win the SCAC Tournament.

By the way, they do plan to webcast all of the games this year so that is an option for all of the fans who don't make the trip to Memphis.

[pbrooks3]

As far as who makes the big III dance, I see several possible scenarios - if the SCAC tournament winner is Millsaps, it's likely DePauw will get the call as well.  It could possibly work the other way - DePauw wins the tournament, and Millsaps goes, too if they're in the final game.  I've displayed my cards before in noting Centre as the tournament winner - I think that's the only way they go to D3.  DePauw, I predict, will go if they advance past the first round of the SCAC. 

 

[DPU3619]

It could possibly work the other way - DePauw wins the tournament, and Millsaps goes, too if they're in the final game.

Just my opinion, but I don't find that to be likely.  Millsaps is all the way down at 83rd in QOWI.  They aren't ranked in the region.  They haven't really beaten anybody to boost their schedule strength.  They obviously would have to beat Centre (or SW if my guy d3allstar gets his wish), but I'm not sure that's going to be enough to get them in.  If they made it to Sunday and lost, they'd finish 19-9, which I personally just don't think will be good enough.  However, there will be enough people filing through here (Pat might have some thoughts if makes his way through these parts) who know a whole heckuva lot more about the selection process than I do, though.

[frank_ezelle]

I have to agree with DPU on the Millsaps chances for an at-large.  The only way they could move up high enough for an at-large would be by beating Centre and DePauw to greatly improve their ranking (but that would make them tournament champs so an at-large bid becomes a moot point). 

DePauw seems to be in regardless but they would certainly help their seeding by winning 3.  Centre might be in if they get to the finals and lose to DePauw.  No one else has much of a shot at an at-large in my opinion but I know there are others around here with more knowledge on the subject.

[SCACAltFan]

I fairly new to this board but could someone explain to me how DePauw post-season resume is so much better than Centre's. I saw DePauw is now ranked in the top 25 with Centre getting some votes but if you look at the last several games beginning with Centre defeating DePauw by 33, Centre seems to be taking care of opponents (both DePauw and Centre have played the same teams) much easer than DePauw. Would welcome any feedback on this subject.

[frank_ezelle]

It's a good question about the gap in the ranking between DePauw and Centre.  The two teams should be ranked about the same in my opinion.

They both have 4 losses, 3 to quality teams and 1 to a non-quality team:

Centre lost to:  Maryville(19-6), Millsaps(17-8), DePauw(21-4) and Albion(10-14)
DePauw lost to:  U of Chicago(20-4), Hamilton College(18-6), Centre(20-4) and Sewanee(6-18)

They both were 12-2 in conference against the same opponents.

If there is a difference in the two teams, it comes from the quality of the non-conference wins which I didn't have a chance to study.  If you just go by the games after Christmas, the two teams are even or Centre might appear to be the better team.

[David Collinge]

I fairly new to this board but could someone explain to me how DePauw post-season resume is so much better than Centre's.

It's a good question about the gap in the ranking between DePauw and Centre.  The two teams should be ranked about the same in my opinion.

SCACAltFan asks about the "post season resume," and Frank answers about the "gap in the ranking."  The problem is, these are not the same thing at all--in fact, they are unrelated.  For example, SCACAltFan points out margin of victory, and Frank mentions how the teams have done in recent games.  These are relevant factors that the poll voters might consider, but they are entirely irrelevant to the NCAA in their ranking and selection process.  Frank's points about the ranking, including his contention that Centre and DPU should probably be ranked about the same, are valid, but are inapplicable to the selection process.

The NCAA considers five "primary criteria" in determining the regional rankings and at-large bids to the tournament.  Those criteria are

• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Quality-of-Wins-Index (only contests versus regional competition)
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results vs. common regional opponents.
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams
Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process only.
Conference postseason contest(s) is included.
Contest versus provisional members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria. Provisional members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selection.

(For more information on what Quality-of-Wins-Index, or QoWI, is and how it is calculated, please refer to the FAQ section of D3Hoops.com.)

When comparing DePauw and Centre on these five criteria, DPU has a decided edge.
Regional win %: DPU .857 (5th among South Region teams), Centre .778 (9th in the South)
QoWI:  DPU 10.429 (14th best in D3, and second to Miss. Coll. in the South); Centre 9.944 (39th overall, 6th in the south, if I counted right)
Head-to-Head: They split
Common regional opponents: I'm using conference record as a proxy for this, each 12-2.  Someone more interested than I am can compare their schedules.
Results vs. ranked teams:  DPU appears to be 1-1 (vs. Centre), while Centre is 1-2 (vs. DPU and Maryville)

DePauw grades out better in at least three of the five criteria, and appear to be even in the other two.  And DePauw's half-point edge in QoWI is huge.  That, in a nutshell, is why DPU appears to have the better chance at an at-large (i.e. Pool C) bid.

[TeeItHigh]

Let's go back to the officiating thing...are you telling us that Centre beat DePauw because the officials let it get too physical and the calls were too inconsistent, thus favoring Centre.  That the same official as refereed 7 of the 11 games that Centre has played at home, thus giving Centre an edge.  Soooooo, you're also telling me that because of those two factors, we should just throw the game out - not count it...it wasn't fair to DePauw.  Could the outcome of the game been determined because Centre held Schott to zero points and the team to 26% shooting - sorry, forgot that it was because of the inconsistency of the whistle and the unfair physicality of the game with a bias to Centre.  Geez, can we give some credit here to a good basketball team that played well on a given day instead of making some sort of an excuse for DePauw.  I just hope the ref from Danville doesn't call the tournament this weekend...might taint anything that Centre earns.  Would you like some cheese with that "wine"?

[SCACAltFan]

It also might be pointed out in looking at the boxscore, it appears there were 20 fouls called on Centre and only 13 on Depauw!! Hmmmmm!!!

[DPU3619]

Would you like some cheese with that "wine"?

Here's a thought new guy, you could try NOT being a jerk about it.  DePauw's been jobbed by the officials every year they've been down there.  It's part of it.  Time mysteriously disappeared from the clock last year when DePauw just happened to be behind.  The officials put the ball in play as soon as the second horn sounds after a timeout whether or not the visitors are on the floor on two different occasions.  That's the only place I've ever seen something that ridiculous happen.  Guys have a trigger finger to give technicals to the visitors like it's nothing.  Centre's got the best home cookin' in the league.  It's nothing new.  I don't know why you find it to be so shocking.

Now, did DePauw shoot a horrible 26%?  Yup.  Did Stephen Schott score 0 points?  Yup.  Did Centre burn up the nets?  Yup.  Did DePauw not play well at all in any facet of the game?  Sure.  Would Centre have won without your referees living so close to campus that they could walk there?  Quite likely on that day.  Although, I can make a very strong case that last year's outcome in Danville was affected by the officiating.

However, Did Coach Fen get a T for nothing?  Yup.  Did a referee throw out one of our fans who was completely undeserving?  Yup.  Did one of your fans put nacho cheese on DePauw's bench?  They sure did.  Have some class about it, will ya?  Completely unnecessary and rather rude, too.  As much whining and bickering as I had to hear from the Hope fans after DPU's women hosted last year, I would hate to have to listen what they'd say if they went to Centre.  We'd never hear the end of it.

It's not as bad every well else, but that doesn't necessarily make it good.  One of the conference schools had their football clock operator ref a basketball game last year.  That's hardly unbiased.  You can't get around it.  I think it's going to be that way no matter what.  Unless the league brings in officials from an outside area and puts them up in a hotel or something.  That's not a very feasible solution, I know.  It was about the best I could come up with.  DePauw did at least have a Wabash grad on the crew this weekend.

[SCACAltFan]

I do not want to come between the two of you but I was only stating the obvious. The fouls were one-sided (in favor of Depauw), Centre did shoot around 52% but they have shot just slightly under 50% all year so I would not call that burning down the nets and finally with respect to Depauw shooting 28% from the field, Centre has been doing that to teams all year in fact I believe they are in the top 5-10 in points allowed and field goal defense in the nation.

[TeeItHigh]

WOW!!!!!  I must have struck a nerve!  I didn't realize that Centre had such an advantage with the officials, the game assistants, etc.   

You've asked me to have some "class" regarding the situation...I would ask you to do the same.  Give credit where credit is due, Centre was the better team that day.  I just happened to be at the Centre-DePauw game in December...they've got some pretty good "Beef Stew and Mashed Potatoes" up there as well.   My problem is this...why devalue Centre's victory that day.  It's unnecessary and quite honesty, classless.  The ref's, the game assistants, the fan from DePauw that got thrown out, the nacho cheese incident, etc - none of them cost DePauw the game that day.  They were outplayed in every facet, just like Centre was outplayed when they went to Greencastle in December.  Frankly, it's disrespectful what happened in Danville with the nacho cheese in Fenlon's seat and I'm sure that was handled appropriately by those at Centre.  If not, then shame on them.  However, I also assure you that it's disrespectful to the players and coaching staff at Centre to speculate that their victory in February was "tainted".

I wish everyone the best in Memphis this weekend at the tournament.  This is a very good league with a bunch of good teams and the best team will win come Sunday afternoon.  Hopefully come Sunday night everyone will be able to give credit to the victors and respect to all those involved.

[pbrooks3]

David Collinge's post is right on.  Centre may be playing better on a more consistent basis at season's end than DePauw, but it isn't going to affect D3 ratings unless the Colonels take charge in the tournament.

Sorry I missed the Danville rematch of the DePauw-Centre.  Interesting to see where  a good rivalry becomes a blood match.  Now I hope to see both of these teams face off in the SCAC finals Sunday; though not have the outcome hinge on a 55' buzzer beater!