MBB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[DPU3619]

Pat has been kind enough to run the OWP numbers, and the news is not particularly good for any of the SCAC teams.

Centre, while ranked 3rd, is 263rd in OWP at .474. Even worse, the OOWP is under .500 for Centre as well, at .497.  They haven't played that many good teams, and those teams haven't played many good teams either. 

Do keep in mind that this is only a small part of the selection process, and that it will likely only affect Centre when it comes time to seed.  Centre is very, very likely in the big show no matter what happens the rest of the way.

Millsaps has a better regional winning percentage than DePauw (stupid Wabash... again... grumble grumble grumble), so we'll address them next.  Millsaps' OWP is, unfortunately, 301st at .456.   They have a similar OOWP to Centre, at .492.  301st in OWP is not good.  But, the regional record for them is good, so there's that. 

DePauw has the best OWP of the three (257th overall) at .487 (still not good) and far and away the best OOWP at .514. (Hey teams Depauw has played, thanks for scheduling tough opponents).

Now again, it's still tough to tell exactly what's going to happen until we get the regional rankings tomorrow.  Also keep in mind that this is only one of the five primary selection criteria.  Also considered are regional record, head-to-head games against teams in the region, region results versus common opponents, and record against ranked teams in the region. 

That being said, my gut feeling was that these OWP numbers needed to be pretty good for all 3 to get in.  Still too early to tell anything definitively, but I think that we may headed towards a race between DePauw and Millsaps for a Pool C.  That's certainly subject to change, however.  They certainly still could both get in.  We'll re-evaluate after the rankings come out.

EDIT: Of course, all of that hinges on Centre winning the tournament.  If Millsaps or DePauw win the tournament, then things get different.  If a team that isn't one of the three win it, things get real complicated. 

[pbrooks3]

Agree, Wes.  It would get real interesting if one of the big three didn't win the tournament.  The moral of this story is that it's probably better to have a higher regional rating than a top 25 ranking if you're sitting on Pool C bubble.  Thanks for the info.

[frank_ezelle]

Wes, thanks for the post and the info.  Let's also keep in mind that Centre has to play at DePauw and at  Oglethorpe (as well as at Sewanee).  IF Centre finishes with losses in 2 out of 3 games while DePauw and Millsaps win out (maybe that's a big IF but not too far fetched), then it would seem like all teams are very even once again.  It just goes to show how important every game is throughout the season. 

[pbrooks3]

Frank, this scenario is certainly a possibility. Centre doesn't always play well on the mountain either so no game is a certainty at this point. The other possibiity we're all ignoring is Oglethorpe could win out in the East (a real possibility); afterall, they host both Centre and DePauw the final week of the season, and need to beat Rhodes thís weekend. If OU does this, then both DePauw and Centre would need to right their respective ships come tournament time or else?  Of course this would foul up my upset special for this weekend - Rhodes 77 Oglethorpe 73.

[DPU3619]

Here's the Regional Rankings:

1. Centre 20-1 15-1
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor 18-3 16-2
3. Guilford 16-4 15-4
4. Maryville (Tennessee) 20-2 14-2
5. Virginia Wesleyan 17-5 16-4
6. DePauw 18-4 14-3
7. Millsaps 19-3 14-2
8. Randolph-Macon 17-4 12-4

I would venture a guess that they are none too pleased at the quality of teams that DePauw and Millsaps have faced.

[FlightofthePetrel]

If that's the reason they  (Depauw and Millsaps) are ranked so low the ranking committee might want to re-evaluate their criteria on Maryville... a team without much of a signature win... their biggest being Rust?

[Ralph Turner]

Here's the Regional Rankings:

1. Centre 20-1 15-1   SCAC Pool A
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor 18-3 16-2  ASC Pool A
3. Guilford 16-4 15-4   ODAC Pool A
4. Maryville (Tennessee) 20-2 14-2 Pool B
5. Virginia Wesleyan 17-5 16-4  ODAC Pool C
6. DePauw 18-4 14-3   SCAC Pool C
7. Millsaps 19-3 14-2   SCAC Pool C
8. Randolph-Macon 17-4 12-4  ODAC Pool C

I would venture a guess that they are none too pleased at the quality of teams that DePauw and Millsaps have faced.

Wes, let's not be too hasty with our assessments.  I think that the SCAC is getting much love!

You have the #2 and #3 Pool C teams in the region.  I, for one, think that Millsaps is the weakest when I look at their South Region record.  They have played three non-conference South Region opponents, Rust (10-11 overall/ 6-7 South Region with 3 games missing), a 2-point home win over Louisiana College (8-14/ 8-11) and a win over Huntingdon (9-14/ 6-10).  It is the in-conference OWP and OOWP that has boosted their in-region record (14-2) to its astronomical heights.

[Ralph Turner]

If that's the reason they  (Depauw and Millsaps) are ranked so low the ranking committee might want to re-evaluate their criteria on Maryville... a team without much of a signature win... their biggest being Rust?

By definition a "signature win" is a win over a regionally ranked team.

We are stuck with these 8 teams.  The committee looks at all Handbook criteria and balances all of them to get the regional rankings.

[DPU3619]

Wes, let's not be too hasty with our assessments.  I think that the SCAC is getting much love!

You have the #2 and #3 Pool C teams in the region.  I, for one, think that Millsaps is the weakest when I look at their South Region record.  They have played three non-conference South Region opponents, Rust (10-11 overall/ 6-7 South Region with 3 games missing), a 2-point home win over Louisiana College (8-14/ 8-11) and a win over Huntingdon (9-14/ 6-10).  It is the in-conference OWP and OOWP that has boosted their in-region record (14-2) to its astronomical heights.

No no, Ralph, I do agree.  Could be in a lot worse place than they are.  Some of those teams will certainly lose between now and Selection Monday.  DePauw can certainly help themselves this Saturday night at the Neal Fieldhouse.  I had just hoped to see both DePauw and Millsaps ranked a little higher with 3 and 2 region losses, respectively.  But, there again, the OWP isn't that good. 

Of course, it's still very early.  Sky isn't falling or anything.

[frank_ezelle]

In this case, I hope "weakest" is a relative term.  A team can't be too bad when they go on the road and take the top team in the south into overtime only after that top team hits a desperation 3-pointer at the buzzer.

[pbrooks3]

Frank, in regional ranking terms, we as a conference don't stack up well because of relative strength of schedules and the fact we're not facing ranked teams on a regular basis. Look at Augustana, which lost its 5th game last night. Coming into last night, they were 4-1 against ranked teams. I for one know Millsaps is one heck of a team.  If DePauw prevails this weekend against my Colonels, and Millsaps gets 2 in Texas, look for some regional switchings, particularly with DPU.

[Ralph Turner]

Frank, in regional ranking terms, we as a conference don't stack up well because of relative strength of schedules and the fact we're not facing ranked teams on a regular basis. Look at Augustana, which lost its 5th game last night. Coming into last night, they were 4-1 against ranked teams. I for one know Millsaps is one heck of a team.  If DePauw prevails this weekend against my Colonels, and Millsaps gets 2 in Texas, look for some regional switchings, particularly with DPU.

I anticipate the results of Millsaps in Texas.  I have been skeptical of the Majors from their early season performance against LaCollege.

We have very few ASC-SCAC matchups to give a better barometer, so the Texas trip should be a good one to determine the fortunes of the Majors.

[frank_ezelle]

John Wooden said that if he had the choice of seeing a basketball recruit play just one time or not at all, he would prefer to not see the recruit play.  He was afraid that he might see a kid on the best night of his career and that would cause him to recruit a dud, or he might see a kid on the worst night of his career and that would cause him to pass on a future star.

Ralph, I've seen several posts that keep referring back to the Millsaps game with Louisiana College, the second game of the season.  Doesn't Millsaps get any credit for the other games on their schedule?  If Britt's 3-pointer doesn't go in with .3 seconds on the clock, then is Millsaps a good team because they beat Centre?  And if the close score in the win against LC is a negative against Millsaps, you must then also conclude that the close score in the loss to Centre is a positive for Millsaps.

Of course, how much credit can you get by playing a close game with Centre since they are obviously a weak team.  I say that because they lost to Rust College to open the season so obviously Centre is an average team at best despite the 20 game winning streak that has followed that season opening loss.

[hendrixfan]

John Wooden said that if he had the choice of seeing a basketball recruit play just one time or not at all, he would prefer to not see the recruit play.  He was afraid that he might see a kid on the best night of his career and that would cause him to recruit a dud, or he might see a kid on the worst night of his career and that would cause him to pass on a future star.

Ralph, I've seen several posts that keep referring back to the Millsaps game with Louisiana College, the second game of the season.  Doesn't Millsaps get any credit for the other games on their schedule?  If Britt's 3-pointer doesn't go in with .3 seconds on the clock, then is Millsaps a good team because they beat Centre?  And if the close score in the win against LC is a negative against Millsaps, you must then also conclude that the close score in the loss to Centre is a positive for Millsaps.

Of course, how much credit can you get by playing a close game with Centre since they are obviously a weak team.  I say that because they lost to Rust College to open the season so obviously Centre is an average team at best despite the 20 game winning streak that has followed that season opening loss.

I agree.

[DPU3619]

For the sake of playing devil's advocate here, Frank, and certainly not to just get under your skin, what's the rest of the case for Millsaps?  Played #14 (at the time) to the horn on the road and then what?

Heck, you've played the conference to 2 losses (same as DePauw), and DePauw beat you in the head-to-head match-up.  You do have one more win and one more region win, but you didn't play as tough of a schedule.  And on top of that, DPU's OOWP is stronger by a good margin.  DePauw is 1-0 against ranked teams (Millsaps) and I believe Millsaps is winless.

So for honesty's sake, what's the case for Millsaps to be the second team in the SCAC to get in?  If they aren't the second, then they're the third, and I believe that's what Ralph said in the first place.

EDIT: To be honest, I think neither team is a shoe-in for a Pool C.  I think both them fall somewhere in the low teens if you were going to rank all the Pool C candidates.  There's 17 Pool C's, so being 12th or 13th means you're hoping that a lot of the teams who are supposed to win their Pool A do just that.  Still plenty of time left before we cross that bridge, though.