FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[NESCAC.Football.Observer]

Guys/Ladies..... My scores are not intended to be "lines". 

Frankly.... I'd be much more conservative if I were making betting lines.

What I shared is what i saw via this list I'm on about "final scores".

My lines would be much tighter if I were doing something Vegas style.

But I do think, given the guy is 18 - 2 vs "outright winners", that his scores have been in the ballparks.

[Nescacman]

Week 5 NESCAC Weekly Power Rankings

Hartford State continues as our #1 team. We had some movement at the bottom of the rankings. We often get asked who we are? We are a consortium of NESCAC alums, all of whom played "ball" in the 'CAC. Some of us are parents of current and former players. Each week, we discuss the games that have been played and the games coming up. Between the group, we watch every game, with overlap of certain games. One of us each week writes while others edit. Oh, and we have representation from almost every school in the group.

1. Hartford State (4-0, LW: 1): Another convincing win by the Bants this week. They led 36-13 over the Jumbo's with less than 2 minutes left before allowing 2 late TD's to Tufts to make the game look closer than it was. Consider that 15 of HS's points came on 5 FG's (short FG's at that), convert those FG's to TD's and suddenly the score is 56-28. Hardly a close game (as we predicted) by anyone's calculation. Assuming Wes gets it done this week against the FKA LJ's, HS could be on a collision course for all the NESCAC marbles in week 8 at Wes' historic Andrus Field. 

2. Middlebury (4-0, LW: 2): Middlebury actually made it interesting vs. the Ephs for 3 quarters before they scored 3 fourth quarter TD's to pull away. How bad is Williams run defense? They allowed the pass happy Pants to rush for over 200 yards as a team and record their first 100 yard rusher since the invention of fire. Williams is now the second worst team against the rush in the NESCAC.

3. Wesleyan (3-1, LW: 4): Moves up 1 spot in the rankings as they win impressively on the road in Maine for the second straight week. The Cards are 2/3rd's of the way to another "coveted" C-B-B title. They face Bowdoin on 10/29 for the title. Back to reality...Wes did a number on the Bobcats completely dominating the University of Bates in all phases of the game. The Wes D held Bates offense to only 5 first downs all day, 132 yards of total offense, 0 for 13 on third downs, 13 punts and 7 points. The Wes Special Teams? A punt return within a yard of a TD, a blocked punt, a sack of the punter, and excellent coverage on kickoffs that gave UBates bad field position all day. Meanwhile, the Cards racked up 367 yards of total O, scored 28 points and dominated time of possession with over 38 minutes to UBates 22. Wes gears up for their playoff game against the FKA LJ's this Saturday in Middletown. Wes is #3 in the nation in total defense and #4 in scoring defense.

4. Amherst (3-1, Last week: 5): Moves up 1 spot in the rankings as the Little 3 continues their dominance over the C-C-B. Amherst records their 2nd shutout of the year, holds the Mules to 122 yards total O, 25 yards rushing on 29 attempts, and has 7 sacks. Amherst ranks #1 in the nation in total defense and yards rushing allowed per game (however, consider who they have played: Hamilton, Bowdoin, Colby, and a Middlebury team that doesn't run the ball). Winner of the team FKA the Lord Jeff's v. Wes still in the hunt for 'CAC title. Loser goes home.

5. Tufts (3-1, LW: 3): As we predicted, Tufts was outmanned by a superior HS squad. Tufts slips in the rankings due to their effort last Saturday. We think the "very" loyal Tufts fan base (so loyal that during the 1-31 era you could count the fans in attendance at their games on one hand) will be tested in the weeks ahead when they face Amherst and Middlebury. What we find unbelievable is that Tufts has an undergrad enrollment of 5,300 students which is almost double the next closest NESCAC school (and another 6,000 graduate and professional students) and they have problems filling the stands. Based on enrollment, resources, and location, Tufts should not only be filling the stands, but they should absolutely be in the mix every year. Not 1-31 like they were just a few years ago.

6. University of Bates (Lewiston Campus)(1-3, LW: 6): We take back everything nice we said last week about Coach Harriman. This is not a good football team (albiet with one decent player on defense) who run a horrible, predictable offense. The only reason they are ranked this high is because the teams beneath them are even worse, which is sad. UBates was completely dominated Saturday by a Wes team that outplayed them in just about every way possible.

7. Colby (1-3, LW: 7): Crushed for the second week in a row, this time by Amherst. Second to last in the league in total O and total D. They showed nothing against the FKA LJ's. On the verge of a coaching change.

8.Williams (0-4, LW:8): Former HCOF Kelton 0-7 at Shorter. Current and former Eph HCOF's are 0-11. Meanwhile, St. Lawrence is 6-0. Williams last chance at a win in 2016 will come in week 6 against Hamilton. Williams is allowing over 30 points a game and over 400 yards in yards against. In all seriousness, the rest of the league needs Williams to at least be competitive to take some players away from Amherst. Players that in the past that were split roughly 50/50 between FKA LJs and the Ephs are now all going to Amherst. That is a big reason Amherst has been so good the last couple of years.

9. Hamilton (1-3, LW: 10): Won NESCAC's version of the "Toilet Bowl" last week beating the Polar Bears. Go for 2 in a row this week against the Mules.

10. Bowdoin (0-4, LW: 9): 227th out of 244 D3 teams in the country in Total D. Hard to believe D3 acltually has worse teams. Check out Occidental if you have a few minutes. They would give any of the "have nots" a run for their money. Bears are last in the NESCAC in Total D and Total O. How long does Coach Wells get? They seem to be going in reverse.

[lumbercat]

NESCACMAN-

Another good one on your weekend preview. We don't always agree but I enjoy your posts. You cover the whole conference in detail presumably with the help of a number of correspondents in each NESCAC venue.

All kidding aside your posts are very entertaining and well done.

on another note-- as for the Svengali like prognosticators who are alleged to have records like 18-2 picking NESCAC games I tried last week to introduce the concept of picking against a point spread--- as opposed to picking the game winner with a predicted score..........
For example, a poster picks Amherst over Colby by a score no one remembers but declares it a win. What about the spread?

It's easy to pick an outright winner in a 2 division conference of haves and have nots. These guys promoting themselves as the second coming of Jimmy The Greek Snyder will not be 18-2 against the line, its a joke.

[Jonny Utah]

Utah man.  Nice try.  But, still weak argument.

I never said anything about D3 guys not being able to play D1 and all that.  Where did you find that noise.  Heck, JUCO is probably tougher than D1 in many places for reasons I won't go into.  That argument is silly.

As for kids being tough enough to play a position?  I really don't know where you got that one from either.  There are plenty of "tough" kids who are horrible football players.  There are plenty of "nice" kids that are heckuva football players.  There's really no published research on those types of tangibles versus intangibles dude.

As for the baseball thing.  I was just answering a question asked by (I think LUmbeCat).  A relief pitcher is still.........a pitcher.  The baseball that I grew up playing.......It was impossible to play the game without a pitcher.  Somebody had to throw the ball in order to start the "action". 

But, we played lots of sandlot football games without kicking. 

Nice try though. 

When a placekicker gets invited to the Heisman award ceremony you will win your case.

When a placekicker or punter wins Rookie of the Year or League MVP......then you will have won your case.

When a kicker is invited to an NFL combine....u will have won your case

When a kicker is on the front page of the dang Football program.....you will get a slap on the back.

When a kicker is hosting MNFL.....as a color analyst.....then U are getting closer.

When a kicker is the leading vote getter for the Pro Bowl....u will be even closer.

BUT AS U CAN SEE.....ALL JOKES ASIDE......YOU CANNOT AND DO NOT HAVE A VALID RESPONSE. 

They are specialists baby.

Well number 1 negates a fair number or positions and "real football players"

Kickers get invited to the combine every year

Kickers have been on the front page of programs.

"U" on the other and respond like a child throwing a tantrum. Are you sure you're a father? Or did you merely pick the name to seemingly lend credibility to your claims? There was a point we all liked to scream baseless claims with poor grammar; we were pre-teens. If you are truly a father, I feel bad for your supposed son and the lessons in rethorical argument you should have taught him.

Funny how the most successful (highest paid anyway) NESCAC player in NFL history is a kicker. 

I think logically westcoastDad's argument fails at many levels.  If a pitchers "job" is to get people out, a kickers "job" is to score points, or simply "kick".  Not much different than "throwing", "tackling" or any other skill involved in the sport.  Quarterbacks can't tackle, and Linebackers can't throw, and Wide Receivers can't kick.

I think westcoastdad is stuck on the physical size of the position, and how most of them aren't "tough" enough to play other positions, just like most Nescac players aren't "tough" enough to play D1, or even playoff d3 for that matter (if you use his faulty line of logic).

I didn't have an argument, I was just picking apart your faulty logic.  You tried to back up your point using different analogies and fallacies which scientifically though the rules of logic don't work.  Then you keep coming up with different arguments which only confused your original circular reasoning.  I only assumed you thought kickers aren't "football" players because you thought they weren't tough, but then you start making new points about how the actual act of kicking the football isn't necessary to the sport.  Which one is it?  Would it change anything if you made quarterbacks kick the ball instead of "specialists" just like pitchers have to hit in the national league?  Because that isn't the point you argued originally.

[PolarCat]

The game time forecast for Middlebury may not affect the ultimate outcome, but it likely will affect the scoring: 44 degrees, winds 14mph from the NW, torrential rains (over an inch predicted to fall through the day).  After our 80 degree afternoon in Boston yesterday, it's going to be a painful game to watch in person...

[Cards31]

I'm a Wesleyan football alumnus and an almost-daily visitor to this board.

Tomorrow night, Wesleyan will induct former Head Coach of Football Donald M. Russell and Peter Kostacopoulos into the Wesleyan Athletics Hall of Fame. It was my privilege to play for Coach Russell during my years at Wesleyan. "Kosty" was the defensive coordinator during that time, which included the 8-0 season in 1969.

I will attend the induction dinner along with many of my teammates and look forward to congratulating Coach Russell and Coach Kosty on this long-overdue honor.  It should be a great night!

[PBPOP20]

Week 5 NESCAC Weekly Power Rankings
10. Bowdoin (0-4, LW: 9): 227th out of 244 D3 teams in the country in Total D. Hard to believe D3 acltually has worse teams. Check out Occidental if you have a few minutes. They would give any of the "have nots" a run for their money. Bears are last in the NESCAC in Total D and Total O. How long does Coach Wells get? They seem to be going in reverse.

Gotta give him at least 3yrs!   He's starting 2-3 FY on O and 4-6 on D.  That tells me he's already significantly out recruited the talent Caputi left him..  2 more classes of the same caliber, then there will be something to judge.   From what I've observed, he's building a strong culture there and they are recruiting their butts off.  I have faith!

[amh63]

PolarCat...thanks for he weather alert!   Remember to bring something warm to drink!  Oops, Midd does have the restrictions.  Maybe best to go to a local brew house and watch the game there.  Sorry, forgot parenthood rules...it's been a longtime since those days.  Planning to bring my three kids and their families for a football gathering at Homecoming.  One son has classmates who are married to members of the Amherst football staff.  Son in law likes to sit on the Williams side....50 yd line to watch the game...better seats.  Amherst side too crowded.  Wears his Scottish Rugby Shirt..black purple and white colors...a gift from me.  Fits him well and no one bothers him when he cheers for his wife's school .  I'm digressing again.
Guess I need to check the weather report in Middletown.  Since my best man moved to NC, I haven't been watching the Little Three game live in CT.  Hope it is good weather...for the fans and families.  Wes would combine Homecoming and Parents Weekend for this battle.  Also have a Taste of Middletown event under a big tent with food vendors...nice touch.  With the Cardinals rise in football, crowd building steps may not be necessary now.  In any case, a wet field, etc. can change the outcome of the game.  How does one practice for wet weather conditions really? Posters with knowledge and experience welcome on my wet weather question. 

[PolarCat]

Gotta give him at least 3yrs!   He's starting 2-3 FY on O and 4-6 on D. 

And the persistent rumor is that's due in part to having 6 players suspended for a plagiarism incident.  I don't know if that rumor is true (my Polar Bear is studying abroad this term),  nor if the suspendees were Caputi recruits or Wells recruits.  But it certainly makes Wells' job more difficult.

A sympathetic Administration would cut Wells some slack.  However, Rose only seems to pay lip service to football when he is pandering to alumni for funds.  I wouldn't blame Coach Wells if he was second-guessing his decision to move to Brunswick.

[westcoastDad]

Did u say over an inch of rain is expected!?

Wow!  We haven't had that much rain in a year

ote author=PolarCat link=topic=4146.msg1761282#msg1761282 date=1476965209]
The game time forecast for Middlebury may not affect the ultimate outcome, but it likely will affect the scoring: 44 degrees, winds 14mph from the NW, torrential rains (over an inch predicted to fall through the day).  After our 80 degree afternoon in Boston yesterday, it's going to be a painful game to watch in person...
[/quote]

[PolarCat]

Maybe you should move to the sticks?

[westcoastDad]

Utah man.  Go away with this.  Let it go dude. Go find an Osmond's re-run or something.  Marie was a doll indeed. 

But, let it go.

Specialist is all I said. 

[westcoastDad]

No thank u.  I enjoy Southern California much more than seeing rain. 

The sticks is all yours.....and that John Deere collection of vehicles in your barn.

quote author=PolarCat link=topic=4146.msg1761337#msg1761337 date=1476978100]
Maybe you should move to the sticks?
[/quote]

[quicksilver]

Gotta give him at least 3yrs!   He's starting 2-3 FY on O and 4-6 on D. 

And the persistent rumor is that's due in part to having 6 players suspended for a plagiarism incident.  I don't know if that rumor is true (my Polar Bear is studying abroad this term),  nor if the suspendees were Caputi recruits or Wells recruits.  But it certainly makes Wells' job more difficult.

A sympathetic Administration would cut Wells some slack.  However, Rose only seems to pay lip service to football when he is pandering to alumni for funds.  I wouldn't blame Coach Wells if he was second-guessing his decision to move to Brunswick.

The Bowdoin student newspaper reports concerted cheating (involving 11 students) with regard to a computer science course in 2015-16.. Wells has recruited only one class (the class of 2020) so none of his recruits would have been participants in a cheating scandal that happened before they set foot on campus .  .

[PolarCat]

quicksilver, thanks for the explanatory post.  It's funny how these sorts of things seem to pop up in "easy" courses - what we called "guts" back in the Dark Ages when I was an undergrad.  A year ago there was a similar scandal at Dartmouth, involving multiple members of the football team, all taking a course designed specifically for athletes.  The course was "Sports, Ethics and Religion".  Go figure.