FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[nescac1]

As I've said before, the DPOTY can't come from a terrible defense that gave up over 300 yards rushing to a single tailback unless there are no other good options - and this year there are many. 

All Bowdoin tackle for loss and sack statistics should basically be halved for comparative evaluation purposes, because the hyper aggressive system amps those stats up at great cost in terms of overall defensive team performance. 

Which is not to say Price isn't a stellar player.  But he can't beat out Carbeau. 

[MapleBBQChicken]

I think Connor McClellan and Jack Nye are the clear front runners for ROTY, and it will be interesting to see how the coaches make the RB vs WR comparison.

McClellan: 83 carries for 430 yards and 7 TD + 5 rec for 38 yds
Nye: 36 rec for 526 yds and 1 TD

My (admittedly slightly biased) vote would go to McClellan for the touchdowns.

Matt Diaz was excellent against Amherst and Trinity, and he certainly has a bright future, but someone who carried the football in just 3 games is in my view not qualified for a season-long award.

[Nescacman]

Carbeau Tackles 66 (32/34) TFLs 14.5 (13/3) Sacks 7  (6/2)  0 int  0 pass defend  1 fum rec  1 forc fumb
Price  Tackles 45 (30/15) TFLs 16 (13/6) Sacks  10 (8/4)  1 int  4 pass defend  1 fum rec  3 forc fumb

I agree with NM re: DPOY should be Carbeau.  To me the 20 more tackles is a significant difference that I put more weight into than the other categories which are all relatively close except pass def and forc fumb.  Also, his stats are outstanding production on the NO. 1 Defense in the 'CAC. 

Wesleyan should have 9-11 guys on the All-League Team with most of those guys on defense. A good number for the league champs.

As far as DPOTY is concerned, although we had Koy as one of our finalists, we picked Carbeau not just because he is a Cardinal. His stats were certainly solid and worthy, however, the leadership that he provided was the deciding factor for us. Although Koy is a great football player and an even better person, the question for us was are his stats inflated because of the style of defense that the Polars play? We believe the answer to that question was "yes" and that was why we named Ben the "NESCACMAN DPOTY".

NM

[203Nescac]

As I've said before, the DPOTY can't come from a terrible defense that gave up over 300 yards rushing to a single tailback unless there are no other good options - and this year there are many. 

All Bowdoin tackle for loss and sack statistics should basically be halved for comparative evaluation purposes, because the hyper aggressive system amps those stats up at great cost in terms of overall defensive team performance. 

Which is not to say Price isn't a stellar player.  But he can't beat out Carbeau. 

"All Bowdoin tackle for loss and sack statistics should basically be halved for comparative evaluation purposes" is a laughable thing to say. To me it was clear that Bowdoin's "hyper aggressive system" was not nearly as blitz heavy as you seem to believe. The front 7 was just good at getting home. Bowdoin's issues on both sides of the ball stemmed from a combination of a lot of things, but to discount Price's accomplishments like that is a fallacy.

Defensive Player of the Year is an individual award. Not a team award. It shouldn't matter if the defense they are on is #1 or #9, what matters is how disruptive the player is (statistically and situationally) . A DPOY's presence should be felt at all times on the field. They need to be the best player in the league at their position. In the few games that I had the pleasure of watching both Price and Carbeau, it was evident to me that Price was simply the better, more disruptive player. Just watch the Bowdoin v. Wesleyan game. While Carbeau is a phenomenal player who absolutely had a DPOY caliber season, my personal opinion is that Price did more than enough to earn it this year. Regardless, I completely understand why some people feel Carbeau deserves it more.

[nescac1]

203Nescac the stats don't lie - Bowdoin had eight of the top thirty players in the league in TFLs (including Price at number one) and six of the top 25 in sacks but obviously they don't have eight (or even six) of the best defensive players in the conference with a bottom-three defense. 

Bowdoin plays small, fast guys and lets them attack the line of scrimmage with reckless abandon.  It results in a lot of huge defensive AND breakaway offensive plays as once you get past that first wave (not easy) you often have just one, typically undersized, man to beat for a huge gain. 

Again, if the TFL and sack stats reflected the actual caliber of the D, Bowdoin would have a historically great defense rather than a well below average one.

Price is still one of the best defensive players in the league.  But if you put say Miles Harmon in that system his already great stats would be otherworldly. 

[SpringSt7]

Every year the coaches tell us very clearly with their voting that they do not value tackles or tackles for loss as a stat for all-league consideration. Seems clear to me that their awareness and knowledge of each team's schemes and how the players fit those schemes is a higher priority and probably something they know better than we do, although I am still skeptical as to how much effort goes into their efforts. But I know they don't sort the league leaders page by tackling

[203Nescac]

203Nescac the stats don't lie - Bowdoin had eight of the top thirty players in the league in TFLs (including Price at number one) and six of the top 25 in sacks but obviously they don't have eight (or even six) of the best defensive players in the conference with a bottom-three defense. 

Bowdoin plays small, fast guys and lets them attack the line of scrimmage with reckless abandon.  It results in a lot of huge defensive AND breakaway offensive plays as once you get past that first wave (not easy) you often have just one, typically undersized, man to beat for a huge gain. 

Again, if the TFL and sack stats reflected the actual caliber of the D, Bowdoin would have a historically great defense rather than a well below average one.

Price is still one of the best defensive players in the league.  But if you put say Miles Harmon in that system his already great stats would be otherworldly. 

nescac1, I see your point and while I do agree with much of what you are saying, I still disagree in the main point being that Price is a product of his system. Bowdoin's front 7 was not undersized by any means, as it has been in previous years. #91 Aidan Reidy is listed at 6'3 245, and the rest of the interior DLineman that saw playing time are in the 6'1-6'3 245-265 range, which, while a bit on the lighter side, is anything but small. The rest of their guys playing MLB and OLB all appear to be atleast averaged size for this league, between 5'11- 6'1 and 200-235 lbs. My analysis of the enigma that is the Bowdoin defense is not that they stat padded with smaller, faster guys and let teams tee off on the rest of the defense, but rather that this defense was one prone to a mix of mistakes and some boom or bust play calling (I agree with you on this end).

TFL and sacks reflect the caliber of the player making the plays, so I disagree with your stance there. My argument being Bowdoin and Price did not simply will their way into the backfield with 4 guys more than other teams. The reason Bowdoin had eight of the top thirty players in the league in TFLs (including Price at number one) and six of the top 25 in sacks is largely, in my opinion, because they were good at getting into the backfield and making plays. Unfortunately for them, they were not as good at stopping the "X play" or playing sound football 100% of the time. 

Nonetheless, I understand your position completely, but I am still going with Price. A poor overall defense shouldn't take away from what he's done this season.

[lumbercat]

Bowdoin guesses on most Defensive plays. They may think they have the downside covered but they don't. The numbers don't work. Roll the dice. It works in some games and they look like the '85 Chicago Bears but it all plays out in the long run.
3-6.

That approach produces great D stats but they get burned on the other side...those bad plays don't show up in individual defensive stats.

Following the Bates game with 350 yards rushing allowed on plays where Bears  stunted. gamed and blitzed with less than cover zero I think Coach Cosgrove took a look at the film and said we got these guys which he did. No contest in Brunswick on Saturday.

[BigKat]

Every year the coaches tell us very clearly with their voting that they do not value tackles or tackles for loss as a stat for all-league consideration. Seems clear to me that their awareness and knowledge of each team's schemes and how the players fit those schemes is a higher priority and probably something they know better than we do, although I am still skeptical as to how much effort goes into their efforts. But I know they don't sort the league leaders page by tackling

Once again there are no " stats" eval going on for these nominations . You are giving them way too much credit . A coach puts you up in the order he wants players recognized and the other coaches say yes or no. For example Hamilton will get maybe 3 players . Their coach I assume will say Hoey is my first guy, so on and so forth.

For POY stuff , I'm sure there are more stats forensics used.

[Nescacman]

For a preview of where the 2024 Award Winners will come out, see our 2024 final team rankings post. Just as we pretty much predicted what the final team records would be in the preseason, we believe that we will be very close with our NESCACMAN 2024 award winners as well. For those too lazy to go back and look, our picks were as follows: NESCACMAN OPOTY-Chase Wilson (WES), NESCACMAN DPOTY-Ben Carbeau (WES), NESCACMAN ROTY-Jack Nye (COL), NESCACMAN Coaching Staff of the Year-Wesleyan, and NESCACMAN STPOTY-Tighe Hoey (HAM) (NESCAC does not award a STPOTY for some reason). Congratulations to all.

NM

[Nescacman]

Coming soon....the final 2024 Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast!!!

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[muleshoe]

Bowdoin guesses on most Defensive plays. They may think they have the downside covered but they don't. The numbers don't work. Roll the dice. It works in some games and they look like the '85 Chicago Bears but it all plays out in the long run.
3-6.

That approach produces great D stats but they they get burned on the other side...those bad plays don't show up in individual defensive stats.

Following the Bates game with 350 yards rushing allowed on plays where Bears  stunted. gamed and blitzed with less than cover zero I think Coach Cosgrove took a look at the film and said we got these guys which he did. No contest in Brunswick on Saturday.

Agree with you again lumber! Cos and OC Clements had a really good sense of when Bowdoin was going to gamble in bad situations and were able to take advantage of it with enough chunk plays to keep the ball moving. Best example of this was in the 1st quarter, Colby had 3rd and goal from the 10, motioned Smart out to empty, exposing Bowdoin's Cover 0. Drake walked up the middle for a TD on a QB power where the pulling guard had nobody to block because Bowdoin's 5 DL all ran up the field without discipline.

On the DPOY conversation - I think it's clearly between Carbeau, Price and Young. The coaches all watch the film and prep for each of these guys, and I think the decision will come down to who was the toughest to game plan against and contain on gameday. My biased opinion is that Julian Young leads in these categories. He played mostly MLB, but moved around on D and was a top run stopper, pass rusher, and could cover on the backend when asked to do so. Knowing how highly the Colby coaches talk about him too, I would imagine they made a big push at the league meetings for him to be DPOY.

[Nescacman]

Bowdoin guesses on most Defensive plays. They may think they have the downside covered but they don't. The numbers don't work. Roll the dice. It works in some games and they look like the '85 Chicago Bears but it all plays out in the long run.
3-6.

That approach produces great D stats but they they get burned on the other side...those bad plays don't show up in individual defensive stats.

Following the Bates game with 350 yards rushing allowed on plays where Bears  stunted. gamed and blitzed with less than cover zero I think Coach Cosgrove took a look at the film and said we got these guys which he did. No contest in Brunswick on Saturday.

Agree with you again lumber! Cos and OC Clements had a really good sense of when Bowdoin was going to gamble in bad situations and were able to take advantage of it with enough chunk plays to keep the ball moving. Best example of this was in the 1st quarter, Colby had 3rd and goal from the 10, motioned Smart out to empty, exposing Bowdoin's Cover 0. Drake walked up the middle for a TD on a QB power where the pulling guard had nobody to block because Bowdoin's 5 DL all ran up the field without discipline.

On the DPOY conversation - I think it's clearly between Carbeau, Price and Young. The coaches all watch the film and prep for each of these guys, and I think the decision will come down to who was the toughest to game plan against and contain on gameday. My biased opinion is that Julian Young leads in these categories. He played mostly MLB, but moved around on D and was a top run stopper, pass rusher, and could cover on the backend when asked to do so. Knowing how highly the Colby coaches talk about him too, I would imagine they made a big push at the league meetings for him to be DPOY.

We love Julian as a player and a person (and he is clearly a NESCAC 1st Teamer...again), but there is no way the 4-5 Colby Mules get two of the top 3 league-wide awards if Nye wins ROTY. Not going to happen. Now 8-1 Wesleyan, that's another story...

NM

[muleshoe]

Bowdoin guesses on most Defensive plays. They may think they have the downside covered but they don't. The numbers don't work. Roll the dice. It works in some games and they look like the '85 Chicago Bears but it all plays out in the long run.
3-6.

That approach produces great D stats but they they get burned on the other side...those bad plays don't show up in individual defensive stats.

Following the Bates game with 350 yards rushing allowed on plays where Bears  stunted. gamed and blitzed with less than cover zero I think Coach Cosgrove took a look at the film and said we got these guys which he did. No contest in Brunswick on Saturday.

Agree with you again lumber! Cos and OC Clements had a really good sense of when Bowdoin was going to gamble in bad situations and were able to take advantage of it with enough chunk plays to keep the ball moving. Best example of this was in the 1st quarter, Colby had 3rd and goal from the 10, motioned Smart out to empty, exposing Bowdoin's Cover 0. Drake walked up the middle for a TD on a QB power where the pulling guard had nobody to block because Bowdoin's 5 DL all ran up the field without discipline.

On the DPOY conversation - I think it's clearly between Carbeau, Price and Young. The coaches all watch the film and prep for each of these guys, and I think the decision will come down to who was the toughest to game plan against and contain on gameday. My biased opinion is that Julian Young leads in these categories. He played mostly MLB, but moved around on D and was a top run stopper, pass rusher, and could cover on the backend when asked to do so. Knowing how highly the Colby coaches talk about him too, I would imagine they made a big push at the league meetings for him to be DPOY.

We love Julian as a player and a person (and he is clearly a NESCAC 1st Teamer...again), but there is no way the 4-5 Colby Mules get two of the top 3 league-wide awards if Nye wins ROTY. Not going to happen. Now 8-1 Wesleyan, that's another story...

NM

100% agree that they will not get both both DPOY and ROY... frankly at 4-5 I would be surprised if they got either, but I have to push for my Mules!

[203Nescac]

Bowdoin guesses on most Defensive plays. They may think they have the downside covered but they don't. The numbers don't work. Roll the dice. It works in some games and they look like the '85 Chicago Bears but it all plays out in the long run.
3-6.

That approach produces great D stats but they they get burned on the other side...those bad plays don't show up in individual defensive stats.

Following the Bates game with 350 yards rushing allowed on plays where Bears  stunted. gamed and blitzed with less than cover zero I think Coach Cosgrove took a look at the film and said we got these guys which he did. No contest in Brunswick on Saturday.

Agree with you again lumber! Cos and OC Clements had a really good sense of when Bowdoin was going to gamble in bad situations and were able to take advantage of it with enough chunk plays to keep the ball moving. Best example of this was in the 1st quarter, Colby had 3rd and goal from the 10, motioned Smart out to empty, exposing Bowdoin's Cover 0. Drake walked up the middle for a TD on a QB power where the pulling guard had nobody to block because Bowdoin's 5 DL all ran up the field without discipline.

On the DPOY conversation - I think it's clearly between Carbeau, Price and Young. The coaches all watch the film and prep for each of these guys, and I think the decision will come down to who was the toughest to game plan against and contain on gameday. My biased opinion is that Julian Young leads in these categories. He played mostly MLB, but moved around on D and was a top run stopper, pass rusher, and could cover on the backend when asked to do so. Knowing how highly the Colby coaches talk about him too, I would imagine they made a big push at the league meetings for him to be DPOY.

Lumber, it seems like you did not watch the Colby v. Bowdoin game. This game was not won by Coach Cosgrove exploiting the defense with his gameplan. Colby's run game was almost completely shut down all game. In reality, Bowdoin's defense only allowed Colby to score on one long, full field drive, which according to Muleshoe's expert analysis happened because " Bowdoin's 5 DL all ran up the field without discipline". Great touchdown by Drake, but the TD was not due to a lack of discipline.  Again, this was the only full field drive of the game.

Due to an unfortunate 7 turnovers by the offense (credit to Colby's defense, kids played their hearts out),
Here is how Colby's drives went:
Start at own 37= 9 plays, TD
Start at BOW 22= 3 and out, FG
Start at BOW 21= 6 plays, TD
Start at own 21= 6 plays, PUNT
Start at own 25= 4 plays, PUNT
Start at BOW 21= 3 plays, FG
Start at BOW 47= 9 plays, Stopped at the 1
The entire second half resulted in Colby punts, with the sole exception being a 5 play TD drive starting from Bowdoin's own 40.

Bowdoin's "undisciplined" defense allowed one touchdown all game when Colby started from their own side of the field.

I hate to put myself in a defensive position, but as a Bowdoin football alum it bothered me seeing Lumbercat (Bates fan?) and Muleshoe teeing off on these kids who have worked their tails off all year (I also don't understand how Bowdoin's defense became the topic of discussion, I just wanted to express my case for Koy Price for DPOY). Last thing I will say is if you're gonna make blanket statements, at least do your research first.

Here's to hoping Bowdoin brings that CBB back home next year!