FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[frank uible]

This week's weather forecast: Foote will throw about 40 times vs. Trin and will get his passing yardage (275+), Trin will get its rushing yardage (200+), but the key stat will be Trin's sacks (4 or more means Trin's pass rush put Foote in much trouble). Presence of Moores on Midd's right offensive side means that probably no sacks will come through him.

[amh63]

Numbers......sometimes they can be deceiving in a way.  Yesterday, on a surprising warm late Oct. day, I watched the Amherst vs. Wes. game live.  The Wes. stands were almost full....attendance listed at 4250.  The game was exciting as both defenses played tough and both offenses needed big plays to score.  To me, the win was never in doubt.  However, if you look at the stats, one would think that the Cardinals dominated the game.  The Cardinals running game was ok, but the key was the kicking game and the turnovers.  Amherst generated turnovers and won the game with big plays.

[frank uible]

Stats tell a good deal but are merely a starting point. Nonetheless part of the stats address kicking and turnovers. Weighing one stat against another in context is crucial. There is no formula. It is about judgment.

[lumbercat]

Frank- great point on the element of QB pressure being the key for Trinity next week. Bates had some hurries yesterday but no sacks-- Foote pretty much had plenty of time to set up and throw and I beleive thats been the case for him most of the year-I agree that will the key next week.

Amh63 and Frank- So true on stats being misleading. I'm one of the crazies that reviews the stats and play by play game logs for most NESCAC games. When reviewing the Wesleyan-Amherst stats and play by play this morning I came away with the impression that Wesleyan dominated the game. However, I know from personal experieince that there are many factors reflective of, and contributing to, a winning effort. There is no substitute for the naked eye in determining the real story of the game. Thanks for your insights on the game Amh63 and I trust them but I bet you may have had a little bit of a Purple twitch in penning your comments.

It was pancake city yesterday at Middlebury with the 2 best offensive lineman in the league lining up at Offensive Tackle for Middlebury and Bates. Some devastating blocks from both. Kind of surprising that both are right tackles.
Middlebury's Moores is the best in the league at 6'5" 3/4 317. Per a friend in player personnel with an AFC North team he has the tools--most signicantly the height, frame and body type that will allow him to play at 330 or more. Most importantly he moves well and is very athletic He is on the radar of a number of NFL teams. They will be watching closely next week as it will an opportunity for evaluation against the best competition possible.

The Bates tackle is Liam O'Neil 6'4" 308. This kid is not quite the prospect that Moore's is but is on the radar screen of at least one pro team. He is a junior and will be evaluated further. Though not as big as Moores he fits basic critieria used to evaluate prospects-- Height, body type and weight with the possibility that he could play at that 330 level combined with quickness and athleticism.

There are some fine offensive linemen in the league but the majority of the top kids are 6'0" 285 or 6'1" 300 range which just doesn't fit the bill for pro scouts. One of the keys being height which will allow a kid to be quick and athletic at 330 of more. The six footer on the OL, though able to dominate in NESCAC just won't get a look.

It will be interesting to see how Moores fares, should get combine invite. It would be nice to see him get some follow through on this initial NFL attention. We'll see how O'Neil develops into his senior year.

[frank uible]

Projecting NESCAC play to possible NFL play is a long leap - more art than science. It is difficult for a pro scout to evaluate a NESCAC player for NFL purposes because the NESCAC player's available competition will have been so relatively poor- much slower, much weaker, much smaller, much less experienced, usually less driven. In the end NESCAC players almost never measure up. There is a huge difference between creating some preliminary interest by NFL scouts and actually playing in NFL regular season games. Moores has created interest because he is acceptably tall, acceptably heavy and somewhat athletic - all together of which alone is not nearly enough to make him a legitimate prospect. Of course if he were not tall and heavy and somewhat athletic, there would not be any interest even of a preliminary nature.

[gridiron]

Regarding NFL teams POSSIBLY considering NESCAC players, the Baltimore Ravens assistant GM, Eric DeCosta, would potentially be a conduit, being a former Colby football captain himself.

[banfan]

Trinity vs Bowdoin.  First, the weather.  FOG and a little mist for the whole game.  Temp 63.  Rained the night before so it was slippery but the field was not horrible.

Both teams came out throwing.  Trin has a habit of starting slowly.  Opposition has a habit of coming out fast.  Bates did it, Hamilton and Tufts did.  Bowdoin ran well on their grass and scored early but never really threatened again.  They turned the ball over 5 times with 4 ints. and one fumble.  Zach D played well David Black played well with receiving and returns.  Romero threw the ball pretty well.  The conditions lead to a lot of near catches.  When Romero throws a short pass his release point is low and Trin tipped a lot of balls.

The Trin O played well.  Melnitsky has the offense running very consistently and balanced.  Our QB rating is high.  Burgess is playing well and making good decisions.  He runs the ball 4-5 times a game with designed plays and pulls it down when things look bad.  The running game is the best in conference.  Bowdoin seemed to be trying to stop the run and we had all day to pass most of the time.  Our special teams could improve but it was a messy field.

Some would say our conditioning makes us tough in the 4th qrtr.  Come would say it is our depth.  For whatever reason, we where teams down.  It was a sloppy game but not ugly sloppy.  Cde Baca was on crutches but.....

Frankly, I think we might be looking forward to the last three games.  See all you Midd Kidds in Hartford next week.  Don't worry about the tall buildings, lol.

[frank uible]

NESCAC stats show that Midd has been sacked by opponents this year a total of 3 times (twice by Amh and once by Wms) and also that Trin has sacked its opponents this year a total of 9 times. Trin will need to pick up the pace a great deal if it wants an easy win - otherwie the game will be a dogfight barring large net advantages in turnovers and penalties.

[lumbercat]

no serious projection here for NESCAC players playing in the NFL but nice to see some of them getting a "look".

That stat on sacks of Foote this year further supports Frank U's call that QB pressure by Trinity will be a key to the game. Trinity can't look past Askar either as he is one of the better backs in the league who is somewhat overshadowed by Foote and the Middlebury aerial circus.
Great matchup in Hartford on Saturday.

Trinity has the toughest schedule left of any NESCAC team.... Middlebury 5-0, Amherst 4-1, Wesleyan 4-1. If they can win  all three they truly deserve another ring.

[amh63]

I admit that one can always state that I'm bias towards Amherst.  However,  I was joined and surrounded by knowledgeable observers...one who was the father of a starting OG who related how Amherst's offense has not been clicking, etc.  His son had been courted by BC and Penn State......being 6'4" and 280 pounds as a FY when he replaced the 1st team conf. center last season for several games.  Anyway, my close friend who was looking forward to a close "CAC" game with Wes., never had any doubt about who was going to win and predicted a even higher score....a 24-9 win by Amherst when the 4th quarter was half over.  Amherst was running out the clock with about 4 minutes to go.  Finally, Amherst tried a field goal at about the 15 yard line and missed.  Wes. had missed an extra point and its kicker had missed a short field goal and the made field goal was shaky.   The field was not draining and spots were slippery.  Amherst's QB made one pass to a crossing receiver for long yards when he made a cut with no defender near him.  The receiver slipped and fell down.  Instead of a TD, it was recorded as a 30 plus reception.  In another case, on a long punt, the Wes. catcher fumbled the ball and Amherst just missed a turnover.  Wes.'s only TD was a fine long pass play.  Many times, the Wes. QB was being chased in the backfield and only his quick feet and throw aways prevented a sack.  The Amherst crowd was yelling for sacks and did not seemed too concerned late in the second half as Amherst's backs were making longer runs.  Amherst's offensive line can and will wear down the defensive fronts.  Check the second half of the games and one sees that opponents do not score much.

[Panthernation]

While Moores is still a long way from making an NFL roster or playing in a regular season game, he has clearly gotten the attention of at least one NFL team (http://www.middlebury.edu/athletics/sports/football/archive/2011-2012/news/node/358574) and my guess would be that more will follow, given how he's bulked up since last season. His coaches believe he has a chance to play at the next level and I think his combination of height, size, athleticism and football IQ make playing in the NFL a real possibility.

[frank uible]

In pro football scouting as in life, wishful thinking is no substitute for qualified, objective analysis - otherwise, NFL teams might have Departments of Optimism headed by Directors of Good Feelings.

[gridiron]

Panthernation, with an alum already in the NFL (Seattle kicker) Middlebury is clearly on the radar screen for some in the NFL.  Here's hoping things work out for the big lineman, but admittedly lots of things would have to break his way.

[Panthernation]

Add this to Ryan's resume: Middlebury's Offensive line named to D3Football Team of the Week http://www.d3football.com/awards/tow/2012/week8

This is well-deserved, as they allowed no sacks and opened up huge running lanes for Remi Ashkar all game long. The unit has only allowed two sacks this season. The line of scrimmage will be a lot of fun to watch this Saturday.

[frank uible]

Pro scouts qua pro scouts pay no, or almost no, attention to all-star teams, POY or POW awards or the like. They desire, nearly require, that they see the prospect live or on tape in a game or games - preferably several games.