FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[nescac1]

Some very early pre-season picks.  Of course a lot could change with news of more guys who did not return, transfers, impact frosh, etc. ..

1. Wesleyan 8-0.  One of the more loaded teams in recent NESCAC history (return NINE guys who have been all-NESCAC, including several two-timers, which has to be some sort of record).  They have a feeling of unfinished business after the disappointing loss to Trinity to end the season.  Whalen has proven that he can manage a team with sky-high expectations.  This year, they get Trinity at home, which will make all the difference.  They also get Amherst at home.  Toughest game could actually be at Colby, but Wesleyan dominated Colby last year.  Best RB duo in the league, a tested senior QB, talented receivers, and a defense which returns virtually everyone and just looks absolutely nasty.  Led by a big senior class chalk full of 3-4 year starters, this is the Cards' year.

2. Trinity 7-1.  If Trinity wins the first two they have a very good shot at going at least 7-1.  But I also wouldn't be totally shocked to see them open 1-1 and finish 5-3.  A pretty young team by Trinity standards, the loaded frosh class will take some time to make an impact, and replacing the four key skill guys from last year's squad is not easy.  The LB core is beyond loaded but the other defensive units are good but not quite as dominant as in some years for Trinity, and you can only play so many LBs at once.  I think a year away from returning to the favorite role, but still as much overall talent as anyone.

3. Colby 6-2.  VERY tempted to pick Colby to stun NESCAC and topple Trinity at Trinity, but it will take a real powerhouse to end that streak and Colby is not there (if Wes couldn't do it last year ...).  If that game was at Colby, I would like Colby.  Colby is going to be really good this year.  They finished 3-1 in their last four, dominating in the three wins, and they have everyone back.  Ciero and Dunklee are the best offensive duo in the league.  The other skill guys are all back and should give more help.  Colby's D is going to be much tougher, led by Harris, Padula, Buco, and Muntu, who came on late in his frosh year.  Mules are always tough up front on D.  If Trinity thinks they are just going to run all over Colby at will in the opener, they may be in for a rude awakening. 

4. Williams 5-3.  I know this represents a huge turnaround, but Williams is due for some better fortune in close games this year after losing four games that went down to the last possession; plus, switching Colby for Bowdoin helps.  The key of course is improved QB play, but I have a feeling Austin Lommen (if not a frosh) will make an impact there.  The OL (a weak spot last year) HAS to be better with the entire two-deep back, and the WR core has ridiculous size and good overall talent, they just need someone to get them the ball.  If the O can make some solid strides, 7-1 is not out of the question because the defense is pretty loaded led by all-NESCAC guys James Howe and Tom Cabarle, all of the LBs returning, and a really deep and experienced secondary (Tay Scott, Andre Lafontant, etc.).  They need Scyocurka to finally stay healthy and have a really big year because the RB depth is a major , the biggest on the team.  If they are not above .500 this year with the new stadium and the talent on hand, I think some MAJOR changes are in store for the program.

4. Amherst 5-3.  EJ Mills does it with mirrors at times.  Amherst loses its two best OL and several good receivers.  They will get very good QB play from 3 capable guys, but no superstar skill guys to help out.  D will be really tough, as always, they lose some strong players but return a very tough front 7 led by Tamasi, Dean, and Lerhman, and EJ Mills knows how to coach defense.  Replacing Lewis in secondary won't be easy but one corner spot is all set with Spears. 

6. Bates 3-5. The program keeps improving and they avoid Trinity.  But this year could be a small step back with a fairly significant exodus of key players (Kukesh, Doherty, Curit, O'Neil).  Still, the defense brings back everyone but Kukesh and their offensive system causes problems, even though they don't have the same level of skill guys as they've had in recent years.  One of these years Bates will make it up to 6-2, but this is not the year. 

6. Middlebury 3-5. Foote is gone.  The schedule is frontloaded and really tough (at Colby, Williams, and Trinity, plus home games where they will be significant underdogs vs. Amherst and Wesleyan).  Could easily start out 1-3 or even 0-4.

8. Hamilton 2-6.  This year they play Tufts, plus Bowdoin at home.  Can only be better.

9. Bowdoin  1-7.  Graduated three stud LBs who were the heart of the team (over 26 combined TFL!), including the DPOY.  Very limited talent at the skill positions.  I think they lose at Hamilton and finish 1-7.

10. Tufts  0-8.  At least a year away from respectability. Still crazy that with the draw of Boston, double the student body of other NESCAC schools, and all the talent in Tufts' backyard, they are not better. 


OPOY: 1. Drew, 2. Ciero, 3. Dunklee, 4. Warren, 5. Budness

DPOY: 1. Howe, 2. Tamasi, 3. Bussani, 4. Powers, 5. Weatherby

Impact newcomers: Aukamp, Lommen, Spears, I'm sure there are plenty more ...

[frank uible]

Williams at 5-3 requires everything to go right and nothing to go wrong - what are the chances of no significant injuries and every contributing or expected-to-be contributing player performing at the top of his potential?

[nescac1]

You always seem to err on the side of pessimism for the Ephs (the last two years you were right, of course, Frank, but in some previous years the Ephs have vastly exceeded your expectations).  I actually disagree.  I think if EVERYTHING goes right the Ephs could do as well as 7-1 this year (that, however, would be a big surprise).  Remember, they were in a position to beat Wesleyan and Trinity last year, until throwing late interceptions in both games, something that happened repeatedly last year.  If they get a major upgrade at QB (uncertain, but certainly within the realm of possibility with a D1 transfer coming in) and slightly better luck in close games, I see 5-3 as a reasonable projection.  They certainly have plenty of talent at defense led by Howe (a monster on the line), Cabarle, Datema, Lafontant (back from injury), O'Grady, Flynn, and Tay Scott.  Outside of Wesleyan that is as talented a core of defenders as any team in the league.  The two biggest weaknesses from last year -- OL and QB -- have the potential to be a lot better.  And Sime, Kiesel, Hayes and Way give the QBs plenty of talented targets to throw to.  Williams had ZERO downfield passing game last year and still gave Wes and Trinity a good run for their money.  They were a lot more talented than a 2-6 team, probably should have finished 4-4.  I honestly believe they are the third-most talented team in NESCAC headed into the season.  After a year of seriously underachieving, I'd be stunned if they didn't bounce back.  Of course, if the new QBs aren't a major upgrade over the production from that spot the past two years, none of it will matter.  The offensive coaching philosophy needs to shift quite a bit as well -- a dash of unpredictability would not kill them. 

[frank uible]

What were the years in which Williams VASTLY exceeded my expectations? To me vastly means by at least 2 wins. To go on record for 2014 I expect Williams to end with 3.5 wins.

[nescac1]

I just recall, Frank, a few occasions that you were highly, highly skeptical of Williams' chances to compete for a NESCAC title in years they ended up 8-0 or 7-1.  Granted, I was overly optimistic the last two years.  But I do think that 3.5 wins (which of course still represents an upgrade from last year) is on the low end.  I'd be surprised with anything less than 4.  But that's why they play the games! 

[amh63]

Nescac1...interesting thoughts for the upcoming season.  I know that you are aware that the last game is at Amherst.
For me, there is the question of Amherst's offense.  The OC....is now in Japan with the baseball team, being the interim AD.  Wonder if he will return to to coaching the offense this season.
Last season, Amherst had a new center...3 time all conf. Center graduated....and some movement of offensive linemen.  There are some studs to replace the graduated linemen,  including last year's transfers from Union and Wes.  Amherst returns it's best two WRs...Ragone and Garay...both a threat to break away after a short game catch.  If Amherst gets a long game OB in the game and a consistent running game...then I see a team that will challenge the favorites.  Last season,  two big WR/TEs got PT as freshmen.  Also some FY RBs.
I know...a lot of optimistic thinking here.  It is preseason and unknown recruits have to arrive.

[Trin9-0]

Here is a sampling some of the prime recruits coming to Hartford this year- I will state again that it looks like the Bants really torqued it up this year with Whalen pushing them hard in Middletown- please, Coopsters, don't grow rabbit ears on that, I make no allegation of foul play.

Matt Morin LB Milton Academy, Ma 6'2" 220
Joe Farrah LB Hall HS, Ct LB 6'2" 230
Jack Racoczy LB Stamford, Ct 6'3" 230
John Spears RB Pingree, Ma 5'8" 185
Andrew Crane DL Lawrence Academy, Ma 6'2" 280
Brian Viera WR Suffield, Ct 6'4" 200
Colin Geier LB Benet Academy, Il 6'1" 220
Andrew Meoli RB Xavier, Ct 6'0" 205

These is just the tip of the iceberg- inordinate amount go incoming LBs coming in that are all on the big side by NESCAC standards.

OL Chris Simmons, 6'3", 295 from Choate in Wallingford, CT is another incoming Bantam who they think is a steal. They were surprised he wasn't offered a scholarship somewhere. He looks like a dominant run blocker on film; we'll see how quickly that translates to college football: http://www.hudl.com/athlete/3172133/highlights/83159378

nescac1, I had no idea Colby was so stacked. I haven't followed them too closely the past two years since they were off Trin's schedule. You never know how the season opener can go; I hope my Bants are ready! I agree that Williams will have a bounce-back year. If Trinity can escape the first two weeks they'll be on cruise control until Homecoming against the always dangerous Jeffs. An undefeated finale with Wes at Andrus would make for an unforgettable scene. It appears to be the consensus that the title will be Wesleyan's to lose this year.

[nescac1]

Trin 8-0, I may have spoken too soon.  Colby has posted its pre-season roster and notably absent is QB Justin Ciero, who in my view would have been the best returning QB in the league.  With that piece of news, the opening game against Trinity becomes a whole lot less interesting, and I'd switch Amherst and Colby in my prognostication.  Bummer for the Mules ...

http://www.colby.edu/athletics/sport/football/?view=roster

[FourMoreYears]

Bowdoin pre-season roster has been posted.

http://athletics.bowdoin.edu/sports/fball/2014-15/roster

Accepting odds on the date that Al reappears on these boards.
I miss him, and look forward to seeing him at a game this year.

[frank uible]

The absence of Ciero ought to cost Colby 2-3 games.

[amh63]

Just got some football news via college e-mail to Alums.  Seems the Homecoming game with Williams at Pratt field has a start Time change...from the posted schedule time.  The start time has been moved to 4 PM vice a noon time start in Nov.  Guess the game will end under the lights!
Something is behind this other than....because we can with the new lights. 
The "sunny side seat" change advantage for Amherst fans will not be as great.
Any info on Why....from the Ephs fans in the know?

[nescac1]

Yeah, probably true re: Ciero Frank.  Just such a huge part of that team, would have been a legit POY candidate.  I wonder what happened, but never many Colby folks posting here ...

amh63, if I had to guess, perhaps it has something to do with NESN's TV schedule.  But that is just a guess ...

[lumbercat]

Ciero news is a shocker. Very disappointing for the Mules. They will have a fine team but his loss will hurt. Agree with Frank, maybe 2-3 games.

Ciero is the third known NESCAC QB or projected starting QB who is not returning this year.

Bates is losing sophomore QB and prized recruit from last year Nick LaSpada who is transferring to
Merrimack.

Trinity loses Puzzo.

The QB losses at Colby and Bates will make things interesting in the CBB.

Colby had an excellent chance to go 7-1 or 6-2 but don't see it happening now.

[frank uible]

A superficial look-see discloses that the extensive renovation of Williams College's Weston Field (football/lax/field hockey/track and field complex) ought to be complete for football use by early September - barring hurricane, flood, tornado, pestilence, labor difficulty, governmental intervention, famine, insurrection, lightening strike, assassination, early snow, over sleeping, dog attack, epidemic, credit failure, administrative caprice, act of God or other force majeure.

[amh63]

Thanks for the update Frank!   Think you have everything covered .