FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[banfan]

I never thought they made a book for NESCAC.  I do think that the outcomes and spreads look like my way of thinking.  The Bates/Tufts game is going to be interesting.  Expect Wes to run it up whenever they get the chance.

I do think that most will think the Trinity Williams game is suspect especially with the game in Williamstown.  Just remember how many silly or stupid, take your pick, mistakes Trinity made this past week.  The Offense was supposed to be the strength but it sputtered all game and the Defense completely dominated a Bates offense led by a QB that was supposed to be in the top three in the cac.  Our DBs are good and our linebackers are the best in conference and are very deep.  Expect Trinity to shut down whatever O running game Williams can generate and when they go to the pass, which will be often, look for a lot of different blitz options.  The willies will not have much time to throw.  Hartwelll is the best Offensive player in the conference. PLEEEEEEZ do not mention the Midd QB.  I won't even repeat his name.  Hartwell does it all for a better team in bigger games.

Also, Lumbercat, Bowdoin's pine tree lined field is fine and dandy but it suffers from the same strange affliction that Amherst does as of today.  That is, the HOME team sits in the cold while the visitors sit in the sun.  Somebody explain this to me.  By the way, Amherst is reversing this flaw with their new rebuilt field.

By the way, we make every game (at least so far) and do some modest tailgating.  We are identified by our Border Collie, Buck, and his filthy frisbee.  Come on by but no swearing in front of the wife (Middlebury girl).

GO BANTAMS!!!

[lumbercat]

Banfan- good point on the sun-shade issue but the overall setting at Bowdoin is classic. The new Bates stadium has a nice feel the way it sits centrally on a beautiful campus.
I won't mention Middlebury QB as you will be hearing plenty about him for 2 more years--if he avoids injury he will be as good any QB in recent memory in this conference. Harwell is a great player at a different position for a different team- no comparison necessary.

In my opinion Trinity will beat Williams soundly. Trinity did make mistakes last week but give the Bates D a little credit. The Bates kid made a nice play on the 3rd qtr interception that brought Bates within 6. From that point Trinity pulled away with their strong running game. Burgess will need to be better this year and showed some signs of improvement.

My Picks-

Trinity -9

Hamilton +17

Amherst -21

Bates -6

Middlebury -18

[nescac1]

I think the nine point line is a bit high for Trinity going on the road vs. an  Ephs' team that looked very good in most aspects in week one. Granted, I do think the Ephs will be hurt by injuries if true that their WR2, RB1 and RB2, and LT are all still nursing injuries, but I am hopefully that at least a few of those guys will be able to play on Saturday.  But the Ephs' defense, while young, seems to be healthy and already looks better than last year's bunch, and I think if Trinity does not show that it can pass the ball (which it hasn't been able to do consistently for a few years), and if Williams can keep it close or even get a lead early, that will put a LOT of pressure on Trinity to keep running the ball vs. a much tougher defense than Bates could offer.  Williams should be able to score through the air vs. Trinity this year, just a lot of weapons to contend with.  I also note that the last five Trinity-Williams games have all been decided by 8 points or less, and while Trinity has won four of those five, they received virtually all the breaks in the closer games (several of which the Ephs just gave away),  I feel like, somehow, the Ephs are due for some good fortunate vs. the Bants.  I'm not going to predict a winner, but I think the game will be a one-score contest either way.   The rest of the games look like blowouts this week, alas, but this one should be fun. 

[Trin9-0]

I agree with nescac1 that 9 points is way too many. Hopefully I'm wrong but I expect another close game Saturday... this is Trinity-Williams after all.  The weather could play a big role as rain is expected.  One would think this works in Trinity's favor with their superior running game. However, defensive backs often has the most trouble when the footing is bad and it could set up some long touchdown passes for the Ephs.

I think if Trinity can limit the number of mistakes/turnovers and not allow any long touchdown they'll be in good shape.

If you need any help getting excited for Trinity-Williams check out this mini-documentary on the rivalry from '06:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4154845266293163777

GO BANTS!

[banfan]

nescac1 am I correct that you are calling the game (notice no caps) a toss-up?  I have to say that across the board, Trinity is a better team than last year, other than the down D linemen.  That includes our kicking game.  It is hard to imagine them making mistakes like last week.  While our passing game is built on a QB who will not set any records, the attack is much more balanced than last year and we have a new twist that D coordinators will not like, an H back who can block, run and catch.  Hey, they play the games on the field but sitting in my arm chair with the benefit of last week's game, this does not look like a toss-up.  FYI I can grill some mighty fine crow when forced to.

You wouldn't be a Williams fan now would you?   

I think the Bates/Tufts game will be a good one and I think it is a toss-up.

[nescac1]

I'd make Trinity about a field goal favorite on a neutral field, so yes, I'll call it a toss-up, or maybe Trinity by 1 or 2 at most, in Williamstown.  I'm not sure what you saw from your arm chair in the Williams thrashing of Colby to make you think that they won't be competitive with Trinity.  I think Williams had a down year last year for a variety of reasons, a combo of basically having no pre-season due to weather, replacing the best QB in the league with untested players who rotated in and out, and maybe a bit of a let down coming off a dominating undefeated year.  By all accounts, Williams had a better off-season this year.  Even still, Williams played Trinity closer than nine points last year, and that was on the road.  Trinity has a better running game than Williams, for sure, but Williams is better at QB and WR, so I call the offenses a wash, or maybe slight edge to the Ephs just because they can come from behind through the air if needed.  Trinity's defense is likely stronger than Williams, but like Williams they had to replace their entire defensive line (though both teams had talented vets waiting in the wings) and a top-notch MLB who was the leader of the defense.  I give Trinity the edge, but really, it's hard to tell much from the first game either team played.  Colby, other then one trick play, did basically nothing vs. the Williams defense, but I am not expecting Colby to be good.  ON the other hand, the Bates defense, which Trinity didn't exactly dominate for the entire game, is not going to be good, either.  Both teams have good kicking games.  As I said earlier, I think Trinity is the top team in the conference on paper, but that is often the case, and the last three times the teams played in Williamstown, the Ephs won by 8, lost by 3, and won by 25.  So yeah, I can see anything from an even spread to Trinity being a 3-4 point favorite, but 9 strikes me as high, given what is sure to be a fired-up Eph team and a big home crowd.  The key will be what happens early, as if Williams can grab a lead and force Trinty to throw more than they are comfortable doing, the Bants will be out of their comfort zone, but if Trinity can grab a lead and just pound the smaller Eph front seven, they may be able to wear the Ephs down. 

One more bit of statistical history ... Trinity would have covered a 9 point spread in Williamstown exactly ONCE since 1987.  That includes some absolutely dominant Trinity teams in the Priori years.  I'm not saying this Trinity team is not capable of that, but it's obviously not easy to do. 

[frank uible]

lumbercat: You have 4 out of the 5 games with the home team being a dog - by, what I believe to be, a wide margin. I'll take those 4 home dogs - of course along with your points.

[river]

ATN ranks the NESCAC as being a mid-second-10-level conference.  "ATN believes the level of talent in the NESCAC compares to the Liberty League, Centennial, North Coast, UAA and SCIAC, but without any non-conference games, it's impossible to slot them based on anything but a guess."  Is ATN's "guess" too generous or too stingy an evaluation of the NESCAC's talent level?

[banfan]

How the heck can anyone really know without any OOC games?  They are just making it up when they rank based on no information.  How many of these speculators have seen all these conferences play?  They are not on tv so somebody is going around the country watching games and comparing rosters and interviewing coaches?  You know that is not happening, right?

[frank uible]

Who has seen (live or on tape) recently (say, in the last 5 years) more than one game involving in the aggregate more than one of the teams from each of these 6 conferences? My SWAG is nobody or almost nobody.

[banfan]

One more bit of statistical history ... Trinity would have covered a 9 point spread in Williamstown exactly ONCE since 1987.  That includes some absolutely dominant Trinity teams in the Priori years.  I'm not saying this Trinity team is not capable of that, but it's obviously not easy to do.
[/quote]

You know what Brother Bill says about statistics.  You seem to forget that I said that the spread was too high.  I also think that you assumed that my arm chair was somewhere other than Hartford.  So, a field goal on a neutral field.  You must not agree that this Trinity team is better than last year's.  On both sides of the ball.  I thought you picked Trinity to go 8-0 and Williams to lose 2 games.  Sorry to be ribbing you so much.  You can return the favor when I go off the rails.  Now I am not saying that you are off the rails.....lol  Hope to see you at the game!

[lumbercat]

Glad to stir up what was looking like a quiet (dead) board as we approached the weekend with some pretty aggressive point spreads. I even woke Frank up as he promptly jumped on the home dogs....wish he would put up a round of round of golf at Taconic which I would match with dinner for 2 at the Capital Grill in Boston. However, before making that bet I'd have to re think those spreads which were designed to illicit some action on a quiet board. Nice to see some spirited responses.

Maybe some one else like Banfan will take a turn at posting the lines next week as it brings out some good posts.

Enjoy the games tomorrow, lets hope for some decent weather.

[amh63]

Amherst seems to have copied a Williams PR post.....There is a 2 minute video of Highlights of the Hamilton game on the Amherst website.  The crowd on the sunny side is the Hamilton side.
Williams and Amherst must have gotten together and bought football purple pants in bulk.....to save money.  I think Amherst's new jerseys is just a little better than Williams.

[Pat Coleman]

How the heck can anyone really know without any OOC games?  They are just making it up when they rank based on no information.  How many of these speculators have seen all these conferences play?  They are not on tv so somebody is going around the country watching games and comparing rosters and interviewing coaches?  You know that is not happening, right?

You might be underestimating the amount of football Keith and I watch. However, yes, it's really difficult to to compare the NESCAC to other conferences nationally. It's basically an eyeball test. Keith and I have both been to see NESCAC games in person and I generally watch Amherst/Williams on NESN. That's about all we can do, which is exactly why we do not include the NESCAC in our conference rankings.

[lumbercat]

amh63-
good point on the your "purple" observation but indulge me for a moment....I always remember Williams, historically, being purple and gold. More significantly, I remember Amherst being more of a navy blue with the Princeton stripes on the sleeves with Ostendarp on the sidelines in an ill fitting dark suit, dark tie and fedora.  The look was like Penn State (without scandal) and it was classic.

Today it's a purple blur....  I guess the colors of the 2 schools must be purple and white and purple and gold...
now it's all Purple,... both teams.  I guess I was color blind in the late 70's....too many exams and too many Budweisers.

Either way Amherst should go back to that classic look and let the Ephs re-invent themselves with these silly looking shoulder inserts and purple pants they wear this year. Lets solicit an 'anonymous' contribution from wall atreet for throwback jerseys in this years game--bring back the old school look.