FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[banfan]

I hear you Frank, no lead is safe with that defense .  However, it does seem odd that Foote has thrown the ball 365 times this season and his two back-ups have thrown it SIXTEEN!  Now, last year when Foote was out, Trin won 45-7 and this year when Foote was in, 45-7.  So bringing along the back up may not matter? lol  and how the heck did Amherst lose to that team?  anyone?

[maineman]

I hear you Frank, no lead is safe with that defense .  However, it does seem odd that Foote has thrown the ball 365 times this season and his two back-ups have thrown it SIXTEEN!  Now, last year when Foote was out, Trin won 45-7 and this year when Foote was in, 45-7.  So bringing along the back up may not matter? lol  and how the heck did Amherst lose to that team?  anyone?

I think Amherst scored fewer points?

[frank uible]

As you know, at best comparative scoring is tricky. Sometimes comparative scores are instructive if taken in context. More often than not they are not very instructive. Sometimes not instructive at all. The professional gamblers seem to interpret them the best since for professional gamblers there ought to be no allegiances other than the allegiance to money. Of course, if a professional gambler has other allegiances in his gambling, then he is not a professional gambler for long.

[BallHawk7]

Long time reader, first time poster....

I really enjoyed Trin8-0's post on player/coach of year predictions and agree with him on DPOY and Coach of the year. I think co-OPY would make the most sense, as Foote and Bunker are both very deserving.

I have watched a lot of NESCAC football this year, and that post inspired me to take a crack at All-NESCAC predictions. As Trin8-0 said, there is still a lot of football to be played, but here are my offensive and defensive 1st and 2nd team all-league predictions. Would love to hear the boards thoughts on the teams, as I'm sure I'm missing some and probably included some that may not be deserving this year as well.

   First Team Offense   
QB   McCallum Foote   Middlebury
RB   Ben Crick   Trinity
RB   Evan Bunker   Trinity
OL   John Ceccio   Amherst
OL   Jacob Sheffer   Wesleyan
OL   Ryan Moores   Middlebury
OL   Rob Wasielewski   Amherst
OL   Mike Valenti   Trinity
WR   Darren Hartwell   Williams
WR   Zach Driscoll   Middlebury
WR   AJ Jones   Trinity
TE   Billy Chapman   Middlebury

First Team Defense      
DL   Zach Vinci   Wesleyan
DL   Matt Gaither   Bates
DL   Travis Dickensen   Amherst
DL   Nathan Cyr    Trinity
DL   Matt Sponheimer   Amherst
LB   Chris Cameron   Williams
LB   Griffin Cardew   Bowdoin
LB   Stephen Goniprow   Trinity
LB   Matt Pieterse   Amherst
LB   Tim Patricia   Middlebury
DB   Jake Bussani   Wesleyan
DB   Rae Haynes   Trinity
DB   Landrus Lewis   Amherst
DB   Kyle Starr   Bates

Second Team Offense      
QB   Trevor Smith   Bates
RB   Remi Ashkar    Middlebury
RB   Pat George   Bates
RB   Kyle Gibson   Wesleyan
OL   Pete Christiani   Williams
OL   Andrew Weiss    Trinity
OL   John Gilboy   Colby
OL   Harris Huguenard   Middlebury
OL   Tim O'Brien   Trinity
WR   Jay Fabien   Wesleyan
WR   Jake O'Malley   Amherst
WR   Joe Jensen   Hamilton
TE   Kevin Hughes   Wesleyan

Second Team Defense      
DL   Nik Powers   Wesleyan
DL   James Howe   Williams
DL   Zach Klein   Hamilton
DL   Ryan Veillette   Colby
LB   Henry Nelson   Colby
LB   Tommy Meade   Tufts
LB   Mike MacDonald   Hamilton
LB   Gilbert Brown   Bates
LB   Tom Symanski   Trinity
DB   Jason Buco   Colby
DB   Donnie Cimino   Wesleyan
DB   Dan Kenerson   Middlebury
DB   Dan Peters   Hamilton
DB   Andrew Kukesh   Bates

In my predictions, Trinity leads with 10 all-league players. Next are Middlebury and Wesleyan with 8, Amherst and Bates with 6, Williams and Colby with 4, Hamilton with 3, and Bowdoin and Tufts with 1. Seems reasonable given the way I expect the records to play out. Hope this post prompts some healthy debate on the All-NESCAC team this year...

[PistachioX]

Who makes/votes for All-Conference selections...  coaches?

[amh63]

Banfan......I hear you.  Basically, Amherst had a BAD day!  More specifically, Amherst had a bad first half.
Amherst moved the ball down the field in its first drive and did not score.  Foote got hot and Amherst fell behind by 2 TD in the 2nd quarter.  The 3rd TD in the half was a key one that Amherst's coach even pointed out in his review of the game.  The 2nd half, both teams only scored 3 points apiece on field goals.
Amherst's defense had lost L. Lewis , the 1st team all conference CB and 2nd. Team return man...he also did not play in the Trinity game.  Missing also was all conf. ILB Pieterse...who returned for the Trinity game.  These missing players reduced Amherst's pressure on Foote.  The replacement players on defense stepped up in the following games....as did the young RBs.  Top RB, Silvia has not returned to date.  By the Trinity game, many of the younger players started to step up and the special team play had improved.
In the case of Amherst's QBs....I was surprised to see Lippe play most of the Trinity game.  In the Midd. game, the QBs were still learning the offensive sets....so to speak.
Injuries, especially to key players hurt but that is part of the game.....as is having a bad day.

[frank uible]

Of course, another interpretation might be that Midd had an unrepresentatively bad day against Trin (or that Trin had an unrepresentatively bad day against Amh, or that Midd had an unrepresentatively good day against Amh, or that Amh had an unrepresentatively good day against Trin). You get the idea.

[frank uible]

In recent years at least all-NESCAC teams are determined by the coaches.

[amh63]

Had to close out my previous post early...electric power man was replacing my meter and the power was to be shut down.  New meter now can be read from the road,,,,,vice by going to my backyard.  Isn't technology great.
Anyway, when one has new young players moving into starting roles, the possibility of having offensive and defensive breakdowns increases....and the probability of "bad" days goes up.  Of course, the fact the opponents having good days always factor into the outcome of the game.
Frank,,,,What we both will agreed on is that this Sat., the teams for both Amherst and Williams should  be UP......I do NOT expect a BAD day for Amherst.

[frank uible]

You are a glass half full guy - by nature and training I'm a glass half empty guy. I'm seldom unpleasantly surprised but tend to lose a lot of sleep (often needlessly), thinking about all the things that could go awry. Once upon a time I had a football boss who liked that quality in me.

[lumbercat]

Ballhawk 7-

Wow- Your all conerfernce team is a great post that reflects some serious attention to the NESCAC this year and I enjoyed it. A lot of thought and observation went into your picks--you have a handle on the whole conference- thanks for posting.
It's easy to find areas for disagreement, but overall I agree with the majority of your selections.
I look forward to posting my all conference selections following the end of the season this weekend.
In the interim I will restate that I think your selections are excellent but will beg to differ in a few areas.

James Stannel at Hamilton- one of the best backs in the league, gotta have him in there somewhere.

Your O Line picks are suspect.  Bates ran the ball far better than anyone in the conference with the exception of Trinity.  Need to have some of their OL horses considered somewhere on the all conference teams. The Amherst and Willaims lines depite some puff pieces early in the year just didnt get it done. At Bates, the O line carried the team. Right tackle Liam O'Neil is a 310 punder with pro attention who has dominated all year in their ground game. Left tackle Ryan Weston has also been dominant and LG Sylvester is a bulldog who also deserves consideration----after Trinity the Bates line is by far the best O line in the conference --they ran the ball at will all year. These three guys are the best offensive lineman among the three Maine schools. Gilboy at Colby is a good one but has not performed as well as the bigger O'Neil and the Bates line overall.

Bowdoin's Joey Cleary is an undersized LB who missed a game but did nothing but make big palys on defense all year.

Tim Patricia of Middlebury, only a Freshmen but made plays all year for a Middlebury defense that needed help this year.

[banfan]

Ballhawk, a few comments.  First, I would not pick all conference until the season is over.  Second, what is your criteria for first and second team all conference?  Third, it seems that you are justifying your picks with an even distribution of choices based upon where the team finished, or you think they will finish, in the standings.

I don't know enough to make these calls.  You can't look at stats, in many cases, to make the call.  For one, Trinity has the best pass and run defense in conference, IMHO.  Yet you only have 3 on the first team and 1 on the second.  I don't think anyone will challenge Trin's "best D" ranking, yet looking at the highest tackles in conference, the first Trin player is 30th on the list.

It's complicated.  Good that you take the shot.  Good for the board.  I assume you will revisit after Saturday.  Maybe throw in some special teams?

[frank uible]

Making sausage and selecting all-star teams.

[BallHawk7]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

Lumbercat- On Stannel...haven't seen him play this year, but based on what I have seen this year and the stats and team records, it is going to be hard for Stannel to beat out the 5 RBs ahead of him IMHO. He does have some impressive numbers though, and with a great final game against Bates, he could certainly propel himself onto the team.

I agree with your observation on my o-line picks. Really hard for a casual game observer to assess offensive line play....thats something that the coaches that watch hours of game film do and that's why they make the picks ultimately. Agree on Bates o-line though, their line has certainly dominated several games this year, including Tufts and Williams, and I don't doubt that O'Neil, Weston, and Sylvester are deserving. There are a lot of underclassmen O-lineman that made the team last year that I included in my predictions, and I think it is likely that some of them will not make the team last year.

Cleary is certainly deserving and Bowdoins D has played well at times, so I think that was a big miss on my part. I did include Patricia on the first team based on some of the big plays hes made for Midd this year.

Banfan- I'm simply making predictions on the team to stir some healthy debate heading into the final week of the season. As I said, there's a lot of football to be played and I'm sure my predictions won't be as accurate as Nate Silver's were. I am predicting how I believe the coaches will choose the teams, not what I think the teams should be. My predictions are based on several variables: what I have seen this year, the statistics, and how the teams have historically been chosen. Have you followed All-Nescac teams in the past? If you have, you would be aware that there is a very high correlation between the final records and how many players each team has on the all-nescac team.

Point taken on Trinity...I was likely light on Trinity players. After their last 8-0 season in 2008, the team had 13 players on the first and second team O's and D's, and they are likely to do the same this year if they can beat Wesleyan.

[Panthernation]

Does anyone have a problem with Foote playing almost to the end of the Ham game?  Running up the score and the stats.  After getting the snot kicked out of them the prior week against an actual defense, not much character displayed.  Setting records against those defenses is hollow.  They passed the ball 60 times and ran it 18?  Gotta say that Midd is better than that.

Trin has a tough schedule with the last three being the three biggest games of the year.  Mid Terms are over and the league is theirs.  Motivated to be sure that Midd does not share anything with this team.  How the heck did Amherst lose to the panthers??

Have to take issue with your comments on Middlebury, banfan. If you look at the game and the situation more closely, Middlebury was up by just two scores at the end of the third quarter. The offense was coming off a three-and-out and Hamilton had scored touchdowns on consecutive drives. In other words, the game was far from over. Not a single coach in the NESCAC would have pulled their quarterback from the game at that point. The final snap Foote took happened with over 8 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. If you want to twist that and call it "almost the end of the game" that's fine, but you should probably acknowledge that you have a different perception of what the end of a game means. Also, to your point of setting records against Hamilton's defense, Foote and Driscoll had already set their records by the start of the fourth quarter, so you'll have to find another "motive" for why Ritter left them in the game, other than to ensure a win. Finally, addressing Middlebury's pass-to-run ratio ... First, that kind of ratio is perfectly normal for this team. Second, Middlebury was missing first-string RB Remi Ashkar so you would expect their pass/run ratio to be even more lopsided than it usually is. And third, 7 of their 18 rushes happened in the fourth quarter, indicative of a team (particularly one that doesn't run the ball all that well) that is not trying to run up the score. Apologies if this seems harsh, but if you're going to question the character of a team, you should probably be more informed and take a more objective view of what actually happened.

As for your question about the Middlebury-Amherst game, the Panthers did a great job in situational defense, forcing a fumble on Amherst's one long drive in the first quarter and consistently made plays at the line of scrimmage against Silva and co. on third-and-short. Once the offense finally got going (in large part because the Lord Jeffs couldn't matchup with Chapman when he released from the line of scrimmage on his routes) and Middlebury got out to a lead, it forced Amherst to become very one-dimensional, something Lippe could not overcome. Amhert's defense also were clearly outmatched by Foote and co. After watching that game, I would bet that if those two teams played on a neutral field 10 times, Middlebury would win 7 of them. Your disbelief that Middlebury could have won that game is odd, because though Amherst undoubtedly played much tougher against Trinity at home, I am sure you are aware that certain teams matchup well against one type of team and very poorly against another. That's football.