FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[AlDavis]

good points on Wesleyan , but on the flip side they admittedly choked last year against Amherst and was just one play away from beating Trinity , whether if Wesleyan could have got one more first down or on defense just made one play of the many 3rd or 4th down conversions Trinity made in that epic drive to tie the game and send to overtime.....looking at last years Wesleyan GameDay program has not Won the Little Three  since 1970 and last unbeaten team was 1969 and have not beaten  Amherst , Williams  or Trinity since 2002 , 1999 and 2000.....To Be the Man You have to Beat the Man , win the Little 3 is the Road to a possible ring.....just a hunch and would be  very funny and very possible....2013 Final Standings Middlebury 8 - 0 and Wesleyan 8 - 0  ......and  Tufts  0 - 8  and Hamilton  0 - 8.

[Trin9-0]

Trinity8-0....welcome back.  What is your take at this point of the season?

Haha, my take is that the season hasn't even started.

I've only read the Trinity's season preview and it leaves me a just a little bit concerned. Clearly they return a dominant backfield (one could legitimately argue the best in NESCAC history). However, we'll see just how valuable Bunker and Crick are with four new starters on the offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback.  My hunch is that Henry Foye, whose father starred at Trinity in the '80s will be the starting QB when they open at Bates.

The Bantams always graduate talent on defense (producing 7 of the last 9 NESCAC devensive POY winners) but they always find more to replace them.  I suspect defensive coordinator Lew Acquarulo will have Trin as the first or second best defense in the year again.

Playing at Middlebury and Amherst should be a test but getting both Williams and Wesleyan at home will help. For those counting at home it's been ELEVEN years since somebody knocked off the Bantams in the Coop. I feel comfortable projecting a 7-1 season for Trinity and I'd be more surprised with a 6-2 finish than an 8-0 final tally.

The Panthers and Jeffs are equally capable of finishing anywhere between 6-2 and potentially a undefeated. Williams, Wes and possibly Bates again will fill out the middle of the pack with the traditional bottom tier programs struggling for 3+ wins.  I'll also be pulling for my former Trinity teammate Jay Civetti to turn around a Tufts program that's won just 3 games in four years.

[gridiron]

Another way to project for this upcoming season:

Over the past 13 seasons (the NESCAC champion crowned era) and certainly over the past five seasons, the NESCAC football teams can be grouped together as follows (with respect to w/l records only):

"Top Tier" (alphabetical)
Amherst
Middlebury
Trinity
Williams

"Bottom Tier" (alphabetical)
Bates
Bowdoin
Hamilton
Tufts

"Middle Tier" (alphabetical)
Colby
Wesleyan

Based upon that and considering which teams are not playing each other this season I would expect the following in 2013.

Trinity, Amherst and Middlebury are virtually guaranteed a MINIMUM of five wins.  Williams will have no fewer than four (and quite possibly five).  The worst record these schools could possibly have is 5 and 3 (Williams 4 and 4).

Bates, Bowdoin and Hamilton are certain to have a MINIMUM of four losses, while Tufts will have no fewer than five--the maximum upside for these schools is 4 and 4 (3 and 5 for Tufts).

Colby and Wesleyan in the middle tier will have a MINIMUM of three losses--the best they could expect if everything went their way is 5 and 3.

This is not based upon anything but a reasonable sample of historical data--it does not take into consideration any current "buzz" that might exist around a given program at the moment. 

With the short eight game schedule and the historical lack of parity in the league, there is much less variability than one might initially think.  For most of these teams it comes down to how things go in two or three games--ones you can circle on the calendar before the season even begins.

[AlDavis]

Another way to project for this upcoming season:

Over the past 13 seasons (the NESCAC champion crowned era) and certainly over the past five seasons, the NESCAC football teams can be grouped together as follows (with respect to w/l records only):

"Top Tier" (alphabetical)
Amherst
Middlebury
Trinity
Williams

"Bottom Tier" (alphabetical)
Bates
Bowdoin
Hamilton
Tufts

"Middle Tier" (alphabetical)
Colby
Wesleyan

Based upon that and considering which teams are not playing each other this season I would expect the following in 2013.

Trinity, Amherst and Middlebury are virtually guaranteed a MINIMUM of five wins.  Williams will have no fewer than four (and quite possibly five).  The worst record these schools could possibly have is 5 and 3 (Williams 4 and 4).

Bates, Bowdoin and Hamilton are certain to have a MINIMUM of four losses, while Tufts will have no fewer than five--the maximum upside for these schools is 4 and 4 (3 and 5 for Tufts).

Colby and Wesleyan in the middle tier will have a MINIMUM of three losses--the best they could expect if everything went their way is 5 and 3.

This is not based upon anything but a reasonable sample of historical data--it does not take into consideration any current "buzz" that might exist around a given program at the moment. 

With the short eight game schedule and the historical lack of parity in the league, there is much less variability than one might initially think.  For most of these teams it comes down to how things go in two or three games--ones you can circle on the calendar before the season even begins.

All very true as Empirical Data don't lie , but every now and then there is a Tangent on the Curve and that Tangent brings excitement , Wesleyan is bringing that excitement .....I even see Colby amping up some excitement with FaceBook posts ....would love to see some excitement out of Tufts ...at least Tufts agreed to accommodate Wesleyan in this first ever NESCAC night game....need some more info out there....anyone , anyone.

[gridiron]

Tufts--completely agree.  The aberrations, the buzz, if you will, is what makes sports so much fun to follow.  In the spirit of generating some excitement around the upcoming season, here are a couple of observartions about the "up and comers" in the league.

Bates is coming off its best season since 1981, AND it has the ONLY preseason All American in the NESCAC as evaluated by the D3 football website in safety Andrew Kukesh.  Another site lists three NESCAC players--Kukesh, Trinity's Bunker and Middlebury's Foote.  Lots of buzz around Bates.

Hearing what you've been sensing regarding Colby as well.  Coaching staff in its first season in 2012 managed to win three games (and should have upset Wesleyan for a fourth), despite missing several players due to the off field incident of the previous year.  This with a freshman quarterback, Justin Ciero, and an extremely young team surrounding him.  This season some of the missing players return, and the very young team and its coaching staff is a year more experienced.  Still only five seniors this year.

Tufts has been trying hard for years to break into the win column and is bound to do so this season.  Coaching is more seasoned and recent recruits are maturing.   I think the night game is an excellent catalyst for them as well.

We've already heard the buzz surrounding Wesleyan, Trinity, Middlebury, Amherst and Williams.  Does anyone have anything to add, especially about the remaining schools, Hamilton and Bowdoin?  I bet Lumbercat can help with Bowdoin. 

[amh63]

I feel that all this "buzz" talk maybe interesting....but one has to see what the preliminary rosters reveal....as nescac1 pointed out with the Wesleyan roster...the missing players.
I noticed that a number of data/rosters of Bowdoin, Bates, Colby, Hamilton from last season revel a "weakness".  For example....Hamilton  has a 2nd year coach.  The coach came in from Bowdoin...a defensive minded expert.  His team loses two 4 year starters...including the QB.  It is important to see this year's roster...to see if he has had success  not only in quality but also in quantity!  The lower tier schools may on occasion bring in talented players, but they all have rosters of around 60 some.  At least Tufts showed a roster of 74.  All the upper tier teams have large squads ....Wesleyan this year needs to "cut" players.  Important?   when players are lost during the season...depth becomes important..especially at critical positions.  Trinity 8-0 expects the Bantams will rebuild its defensive line with fine players.  Amherst found a FY RB who ran for over  120 yards in the Williams game...after losing 3 other backs during the season.
To summarize...the rosters of all the schools will really generate buzz soon..or should.

[iamhuge]

all I can say is...watchout NESCAC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3plN_3sU38

He looks alright and atleast hustles.....is that boondock  New Jersey High School football , because it looks no better than Pop Warner , very slow and very poor tackling.....that Chance Brady looks to be the much better candidate if this #4 is going to Tufts , nice to see some info tickle in , the write up on Trinity and the Wesleyan Roster , anymore info out there.

Yo hugeness, maybe you should give the homer High School cheerleading a break.  Weren't you touting your son to go to Florida and Alabama on their message boards back 2 years ago?  And hasn't he gone to more d3 colleges than he's appeared in bottom feeder d3 varsity football plays?  When are you going to figure it out man?  If you want to get all rah rah after the kid does something following his rinky dink HS domination, that is fine, but stop embarrassing these kids.

I thought you'd enjoy the video.  I guess not.

[iamhuge]

all I can say is...watchout NESCAC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3plN_3sU38

He looks alright and atleast hustles.....is that boondock  New Jersey High School football , because it looks no better than Pop Warner , very slow and very poor tackling.....that Chance Brady looks to be the much better candidate if this #4 is going to Tufts , nice to see some info tickle in , the write up on Trinity and the Wesleyan Roster , anymore info out there.

Princeton High School plays in the Colonial Valley Conference in NJ.  It is not what you would call the football powerhouse conference of NJ.

Actually that is not quite correct.  The Colonial Valley Conference no longer exists in football.  Three years ago, it was merged into a 65 team league now known as the West Jersey Football League.  Nottingham High School (formerly of the Colonial Valley Conference) won the Group 3 Central State Championship last year.  Princeton High School is in Group 4...which is bigger schools than Group 3.

[lumbercat]

Go Tufts

[Knightstalker]

all I can say is...watchout NESCAC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3plN_3sU38

He looks alright and atleast hustles.....is that boondock  New Jersey High School football , because it looks no better than Pop Warner , very slow and very poor tackling.....that Chance Brady looks to be the much better candidate if this #4 is going to Tufts , nice to see some info tickle in , the write up on Trinity and the Wesleyan Roster , anymore info out there.

Princeton High School plays in the Colonial Valley Conference in NJ.  It is not what you would call the football powerhouse conference of NJ.

Actually that is not quite correct.  The Colonial Valley Conference no longer exists in football.  Three years ago, it was merged into a 65 team league now known as the West Jersey Football League.  Nottingham High School (formerly of the Colonial Valley Conference) won the Group 3 Central State Championship last year.  Princeton High School is in Group 4...which is bigger schools than Group 3.

The huge leagues in NJ are still broken up into smaller conferences (not sure what they call them now) mostly by group size.  But the former schools of the Colonial Valley Conference are generally not powerhouses and never really have been.  Part of what bugs me about NJ high school football is they don't determine a real state champion for each group like they do in basketball with the TOC.

[iamhuge]

all I can say is...watchout NESCAC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3plN_3sU38

He looks alright and atleast hustles.....is that boondock  New Jersey High School football , because it looks no better than Pop Warner , very slow and very poor tackling.....that Chance Brady looks to be the much better candidate if this #4 is going to Tufts , nice to see some info tickle in , the write up on Trinity and the Wesleyan Roster , anymore info out there.

Princeton High School plays in the Colonial Valley Conference in NJ.  It is not what you would call the football powerhouse conference of NJ.

Actually that is not quite correct.  The Colonial Valley Conference no longer exists in football.  Three years ago, it was merged into a 65 team league now known as the West Jersey Football League.  Nottingham High School (formerly of the Colonial Valley Conference) won the Group 3 Central State Championship last year.  Princeton High School is in Group 4...which is bigger schools than Group 3.

The huge leagues in NJ are still broken up into smaller conferences (not sure what they call them now) mostly by group size.  But the former schools of the Colonial Valley Conference are generally not powerhouses and never really have been.  Part of what bugs me about NJ high school football is they don't determine a real state champion for each group like they do in basketball with the TOC.

I agree..Having 20+ state champs doesnt make any sense.  On the other hand, if you are a NJ state wrestling champ, you are the real deal.

[amh63]

Based  on Amherst rosters of NJ players that have excelled on the field and class...winning awards ...,I can say that New Jersey produces talented football players!

[Jonny Utah]

all I can say is...watchout NESCAC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3plN_3sU38

He looks alright and atleast hustles.....is that boondock  New Jersey High School football , because it looks no better than Pop Warner , very slow and very poor tackling.....that Chance Brady looks to be the much better candidate if this #4 is going to Tufts , nice to see some info tickle in , the write up on Trinity and the Wesleyan Roster , anymore info out there.

Princeton High School plays in the Colonial Valley Conference in NJ.  It is not what you would call the football powerhouse conference of NJ.

Actually that is not quite correct.  The Colonial Valley Conference no longer exists in football.  Three years ago, it was merged into a 65 team league now known as the West Jersey Football League.  Nottingham High School (formerly of the Colonial Valley Conference) won the Group 3 Central State Championship last year.  Princeton High School is in Group 4...which is bigger schools than Group 3.

The huge leagues in NJ are still broken up into smaller conferences (not sure what they call them now) mostly by group size.  But the former schools of the Colonial Valley Conference are generally not powerhouses and never really have been.  Part of what bugs me about NJ high school football is they don't determine a real state champion for each group like they do in basketball with the TOC.

I read an article recently which said that New Jersey and Massachusetts are the two states which crown the most "state champs" for football.  I believe this has to do with the fact that both states have Thanksgiving day rivalry football games.  These Thanksgiving day games sometimes go back over 100 years, usually draw big crowds (over 5K) which is big for the Northeast, and also have playoff implications (drawing even bigger crowds).  Since this last game is late in the season, it is very hard to have a true playoff system after this final game (due to weather and winter sports). 

Massachusetts schools just voted for a new playoff system to reduce the amount of "state champions" from 16 to about 5.  The problem is that the thanksgiving game will never count towards a playoff spot now, as the playoffs start 3 weeks before Thanksgiving.  I do not think it will last.

[frank uible]

Once upon a time a guy named Harry said, "A man has to know his limitations".

[amh63]

Another gem Frank!
Considering the population density of both NJ and Mass.  It follows that there are schools galore, both public and private filled with kids that have "local" pride and want ways to prove it....football playoff games.