FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[All NESCAC]

Agree with you completely 46hawk.  Talent in Ephville is better than most.  Problem is coaching.  Ephs should never win less than 5 a year and that is a bad year.  Always starts at the top.  Cant change the entire roster. Ex coach Whalen left on a good note leaving a loaded team for his succesor and Whalen has done well down in Cardinaltown.  Go Ephd

[amh63]

Couple of opinion comments on a "sensitive" subject...a potential losing season for a proud football program.
First, unless one is a Trustee, one does not know what the majority of the Board thinks on an issue and if the Trustee does know, he or she would not leak the info.  The admission office and it's direction from the administration is another area that has no clear answers for this board, IMO ,...but boy is it a hot issue at times here .
The late Amherst HFC "DARP" has reached legendary status at Amherst.  His last years as HFC  were not stellar.  His replacement was an assistant and an alumnus. The new coach went 0-8 in his only year.  It is my belief to this day as an " outsider" of the football decision makers that the new coach was removed, not for his record, but the fact that his players did not want to play for him.  I had two sons in school when Amherst had dismal teams.  My youngest has a roommate that was on the team..a good friend.  The player was one that no longer wanted to play football, a game he enjoyed and played for many years.  His father played football at Amherst and was a classmate of mine.  We both agreed that the new coach was removed because his players lost confidence in him.
I agree with Frank, if the players like the coach, the record is secondary...he will remain.  Of course, if Amherst continues to beat Williams, then all bets are off. . Oh yes, Amherst will win this year.

[Gr8ful1]

Jeez, I can understand the loathing against Williams as a football program seeing they have won so much for so often but why so much hating against the HFC? To even think Frank is off base with his assertion regarding admissions is laughable.  I suspect Whalen saw the writing on the wall and made his move.  Based upon record alone, a good move. I acquiesce to most (all) of the regular posters to this board as you have seemingly seen all and know all but pose this question, is the HFC of any NESCAC team (besides Wesleyan)empowered with such autonomy that he/she can unilaterally select/remove any part of his/her staff?  Especially if any member of the staff was inherited?  I'm not so sure that the HFC at Williams has such authority despite it possibly existing elsewhere.  I'm not pointing a finger(s) but to suggest that the HFC is THE reason for success or failure on the field without such authority is ludicrous. Moving to the positive, Williams has been in every game to the very end with the exception on Colby in which they were humiliated. Coaching deserves some credit.  A lot of credit IMO. My ability to prognosticate as well as Al Davis et al is not good so no more predictions from me. For Go Continental to suggest that Hamilton throwing the ball will pose problems is, well, I'll leave it at an unfounded opinion.  Going into last weekend I believe the Ephs were #1 in pass defense...at least certainly near the top. At 1-5 I have no recourse but to swallow the blogs diatribe on the current state of Williams football. But Al baby, if...and its a big if, we somehow topple the Super Bowl bound Cardinals...I want to be sure I know where to find you post game to share in that moment!  BTW...who is only undefeated team in NFL? Just win baby!

[Gr8ful1]

Check that...1-4.  My emotions must have gotten the best of me.  Sure hope it wasn't a Freudian prognostication

[AlDavis]

Amh63.....Myself Being new on the NESCAC scene as you now know , I have learned the history and give much respect as such ........but have stated since August , no more Little 3 for you , this year , next year and years to come .....I never knew I could get so excited about this Little 3 , but Hell Yaah I am going to be strait Greedy and root in this Little 3 every year here on out and spread the word everywhere I go..........so you Other Little 3 guys can squabble all you want about paperwork , chemistry teachers , crabby sea hag librarians , the over abundance of Asian Math Wizards that can't safely cross the street , and all such non football related issues related to your losing now and losing in the future........but I'm talking football and I am talking good football ( and yes Great Student Athletes we all know they are ) , with pride and passion , excitement and well deserved hype ......I for one Like Football very , very much and that's why I like Wesleyan.....once you see Wesleyan Football , you will like them.......and for Williams next week , payback will be one year at a time.

[lumbercat]

Al- your son is a freshman at Wesleyan?

[AlDavis]

Jeez, I can understand the loathing against Williams as a football program seeing they have won so much for so often but why so much hating against the HFC? To even think Frank is off base with his assertion regarding admissions is laughable.  I suspect Whalen saw the writing on the wall and made his move.  Based upon record alone, a good move. I acquiesce to most (all) of the regular posters to this board as you have seemingly seen all and know all but pose this question, is the HFC of any NESCAC team (besides Wesleyan)empowered with such autonomy that he/she can unilaterally select/remove any part of his/her staff?  Especially if any member of the staff was inherited?  I'm not so sure that the HFC at Williams has such authority despite it possibly existing elsewhere.  I'm not pointing a finger(s) but to suggest that the HFC is THE reason for success or failure on the field without such authority is ludicrous. Moving to the positive, Williams has been in every game to the very end with the exception on Colby in which they were humiliated. Coaching deserves some credit.  A lot of credit IMO. My ability to prognosticate as well as Al Davis et al is not good so no more predictions from me. For Go Continental to suggest that Hamilton throwing the ball will pose problems is, well, I'll leave it at an unfounded opinion.  Going into last weekend I believe the Ephs were #1 in pass defense...at least certainly near the top. At 1-5 I have no recourse but to swallow the blogs diatribe on the current state of Williams football. But Al baby, if...and its a big if, we somehow topple the Super Bowl bound Cardinals...I want to be sure I know where to find you post game to share in that moment!  BTW...who is only undefeated team in NFL? Just win baby!

Yes GreatfulDead 1.....I will gladly see you before , during and after the game.....anyone here that has called me out , I have said I would meet...I have met a few already and meeting a Bowdoin guy Saturday....I have endured bigger losses than a Williams loss so definitely not afraid of that , so let me know where you at ....or you will see me and then know its me.....we will be rooting hard and too bad about ya on how it will go down next week.........yo yo  Lumbercat I told you 3 or 4 times leading up to our game I would meet you and you bypassed and if you did would already know everything about me.

[lumbercat]

Al-
I don't  avoid face to face confrontations with anyone and would love to hoist few with you at a tailgate....however, when I attended the Wesleyan-Bates game I had no idea who you are or where I could find you at Wesleyan.....missed that connection totally--didn't see anything on the blog with info on where to find you- no avoidance here.
Lets agree to meet in Lewiston next year and you will like me too- guaranteed. I look forward
to meeting you and hope your son gets some reps this year.
Good luck this weekend.

[AlDavis]

Al-
I don't  avoid face to face confrontations with anyone and would love to hoist few with you at a tailgate....however, when I attended the Wesleyan-Bates game I had no idea who you are or where I could find you at Wesleyan.....missed that connection totally--didn't see anything on the blog with info on where to find you- no avoidance here.
Lets agree to meet in Lewiston next year and you will like me too- guaranteed. I look forward
to meeting you and hope your son gets some reps this year.
Good luck this weekend.

OK then cool...next year for sure then , I just felt you knew I was there and you did not imply for certain you would be there and  then you where very Salty towards me with a rather nasty post at me and then of course I replied very nastily at you with words like Caveman Offense......but I am coming from a strictly business angle of rooting it in and for entertainment purpose only and do believe I have brought some swagg to this NESCAC board as some fellows here need to loosen up a little on the entitlement they once had and will now be soon gone in football terms......and yes he's getting some reps on a very talented and deep roster of great student athletes and feel very , vey , very  fortunate and thankful and he will Represent Wesleyan well now and in the future.........so please allow me to remain separate from the good people representing all the good things that are good.........."Just Win Baby"

[Nescacman]

Week #6 NESCAC Preview and Power Rankings

Welcome to Week 6 in the NESCAC. Sorry for the delay. Unfortunately, it took a bit longer this week to assemble our weekly poll utilizing representatives from throughout NESCAC.

This week we once again give our regular weekly preview of the upcoming games and our weekly power rankings for the NESCAC.

We had another excellent week picking NESCAC games (for those with enough patience, we will give you a hint so you too can predict NESCAC games from the comfort of your own living room) going 5-0 (again). Tufts almost pulled off the upset of the decade in Williamstown (is it really an upset if one 0-4 team beats another 0-4 team?) losing a close game to the Purple Cows.

Not only are we picking well, but we are also doing a pretty good job of calling the scores nailing many of them almost right on the button (for those tracking those sorts of thing).

A decent week coming up in Week 6 with some interesting games on the schedule. The NESCAC game of the week has Trinity travelling to Vermont to face Middlebury. The C-B-B gets underway this weekend with Bates travelling to face Colby. The other games on the schedule are ho-hum although for you Williams haters out there (and I know there are quite a few...right Mr. Davis), you can always root for Hamilton.

Week 6 NESCAC Power Rankings

1. Wesleyan (Last Week Tied #1): Big win for the Cardinals as they won on the road in Amherst for the first time since 1993. That earned them the right to be called the best team in the NESCAC through 5 games. Admittedly, Wesleyan did not play their best game of the season being outgained by the Lord Jeff's. However, they dominated in three key areas: time of possession (36 minutes to 24 minutes), penalty yards (25 yards for Wes to 55 yards for Amherst) and turnovers (plus 4 for Wesleyan). Winning those categories 9 times out of 10 spells victory as it did this week for the Cards. In addition to a great team effort for Wesleyan, they once again had some terrific individual efforts led by NESCAC Defensive POTW Justin Sanchez (2 picks and 7 tackles, 5 of which were solo) and NESCAC Special Teams POTW Sebastian Aquirre (8 points, 2 field goals including a career long 41 yarder and 2 more PATs extending his Wes record to 24 straight). Aguirre leads the NESCAC in points scored for a kicker with 39 points (why doesn't NESCAC list kicking stats in their weekly release?). 4th ranked in the nation QB Jesse Warren had another highly efficient day going 14 of 17 with a TD and no picks. He now has 12 TDs and 0 picks on the season through 5 games. In addition, Wes' O-line continues to play well allowing only 3 sacks in 5 games. If Wesleyan goes about their business against Bowdoin this week, as they should, they will be playing for two championships in weeks #7 and #8 (the elusive Little 3 Title in week #7 and the NESCAC Championship in week #8). 

2. Trinity (LW #3): Trinity did what they had to do last week beating up on Bowdoin. That was their last warm-up game as they now head into the serious part of their schedule against Middlebury, Amherst and Wesleyan. They appear to be on a collision course with Wesleyan on November 9th. Trinity has a much tougher road to get to that battle with a 7-0 record. If they are able to do it, it will be the biggest game in the NESCAC in many, many years. There could be a huge crowd on hand to see "The Battle of Connecticut". Both have some "wood to chop" before we get to that point, however. We can dream though...

3. Amherst (LW Tied #1): Lost a heartbreaking contest to Wesleyan. Not only was it homecoming but it was the day they dedicated the new Pratt Field. Tough to lose at home to Wes for the first time in 20 years. Our sense was Amherst could not have played any better in the first half against Wes but still only led 7-6 at the half. We think that demoralized the Lord Jeffs. Wesleyan totally outplayed Amherst in the second half and Amherst only made it close at the end after a late touchdown. Still, they have a talented defense and a good freshman QB. They will end up at least 6-2 and give Trinity all they can handle in week 7.

4. Middlebury (LW #4): Now lead the NESCAC in total offense and passing offense. The bad news...they are last in rushing offense. They continue to turn the ball over way too much (minus 1 for the year including 9 interceptions). This week is their season. They need to beat Trinity to have any shot at the league title this year. They can then coast the rest of the way as they face Hamilton and Tufts.

5. Bates (LW #5): One of three 2-3 teams in NESCAC and the C-B-B. With all due respect to the Polar Bears (despite having a much "cooler" nickname, no pun intended), Bates is just a better team. Bates played Middlebury tough leading at the half. We think the most amazing thing about last Saturday's game was they actually threw the ball 23 times and had their first TD pass of the year (in game 5). They get a chance to prove they belong here as they face the Mules in Waterville this week.

6. Colby (LW#6): Good, predictable win for them against a weak Hamilton team. We are going to move them off the scrap heap for the time being. I give them about a 50/50 chance of winning out and ending the year 5-3 and the C-B-B title.

7. Williams (LW#7): The Ephman win the pennant! The Ephman win the pennant! The Ephman win the pennant! Ooops, wrong team, wrong sport. But they did finally win their first game in 2013 over the hapless Tufts Jumbos after a scare trailing at the half. They are the new "King of the Scrap Heap". They continue to be last in the NESCAC in turnover differential at -12 and second to last in rushing offense. This is not a winning formula. They don't really seem to do anything particularly well. This week will probably be there last chance for a win this year as they will face two very motivated and talented teams in Wesleyan and and Amherst in weeks #7 and #8.

8. Bowdoin (LW #8): Another team that is looking to get to 4-4. One of those 4 wins is not coming this week as they face Wesleyan at home. Good luck Polar Bears....

9. Hamilton (LW #9): They are heading towards an 0-8 season. I will give them at least a punchers chance against Head Coach of Football Kelton. Continental Fun Fact: When was Hamilton's last winning season? No, not never. They last had a winning season in 1996 (5-3), the last of 3 straight winning seasons in '94,'95 and '96. Since 1996 they are 23-102. Not good.

10. Connecticut College (LW #10): Have lost "0" straight.

11. Tufts (LW #11): 28 in a row and counting. Their last chance for a "W" this year is next week against Colby. Congrats are in order to Tufts for running the ball 37 times (and getting their new QB sacked 8 times). Hopefully, he makes it to his sophomore year. Did the Bates coaches switch places with the Tufts coaches last week?!?

Week 6 NESCAC Preview

Wesleyan University at Bowdoin College: The Cards take their high scoring show on the road to Maine. The two best things that can happen for Wesleyan in this game is 1). They get a big lead and are able to play the JV the majority of the game and 2). No one gets hurt for the Cardinals. This would appear to be a trap game for Wesleyan as they might be tempted to look ahead to their two biggies coming up against Williams and Trinity. Coach Whalen will not allow that to happen as they go for win #6. For Bowdoin to win, they should pray for rain in Maine. Unfortunately, there is zero chance of rain in Brunswick on Saturday. Bowdoin has one weapon on offense in Zach Donnarumma. QB Chapatti will have a tough time against a stellar Wes secondary. We expect several picks for the Cards. Bowdoin does have some players on defense; although we think the Bowdoin stat gurus are doing some good old-fashioned "tackle padding" on the stat sheet. That's why we hate subjective individual defensive stats. Donnarumma is not enough, as Wes will coast padding their already gaudy offensive and defensive stats.

Wesleyan 35 Bowdoin 7
Weather: Not a factor.

Bates College at Colby College: This is an interesting game that could very easily decide the coveted C-B-B title. Colby is playing a little better coming in and has home field advantage. However, Bates appears to have a slight statistical edge. Neither team defends the pass very well (#9 and #10 in the league in pass defense). Unfortunately, neither team passes well enough to take advantage of that (#9 and #10 in passing offense). The two keys to this game: 1). Can Bates NESCAC top rushing offense run against Colby's #2 rushing defense (nearly #1 BTW) and 2). Who turns the ball over more? Close game but we like Bates a bit more than Colby.

Bates 21 Colby 17
Weather: Not a factor.

Amherst College at Tufts University: This could be the battle of the two first year QBs; Snyder for Tufts and Berluti for Amherst. Trying to figure out a way for Tufts to beat Amherst. Maybe have the team bus hijacked? I give the Jumbo's little to no chance of ending the streak this week. They will have to figure out a way to score on a very good Amherst defense. Not going to happen.

Amherst 38 Tufts 7
Weather: Not a factor.

Hamilton College at Williams College: Congrats to the Purple Cows on win #1 in 2013. I will take full credit for starting the lively dialogue on "Head Coach of Football" Kelton. I do not have any inside knowledge other than knowing many Williams College alums. Based on that, our two cents: there is no way that Jonathan Kraft and the "Armchair" QB Club (of which poster Frank Ubile is a Director) is going to let their beloved Ephman slip into the world of Tufts and Hamilton. Not going to happen. Not a chance. Do you think they are spending $22 million on a new football stadium (a Division III football stadium, mind you) to go 2-6 every year? "Come on man"...you are smarter than that. As long as the Ephs don't turn over the ball too much, Williams gets their second and last win of 2013.

Williams 24 Hamilton 7
Weather: AM showers.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Trinity College at Middlebury College: Really interesting game. Trinity pits its #1 ranked passing defense against Middlebury's #1 ranked passing offense. Trinity's Achilles heel is their rushing defense, which is third worst in the NESCAC. Unfortunately, Middlebury does not run the ball well so their ability to take advantage of that is limited. We favor Trinity's more balanced attack and ability to force turnovers against Mr. Foote's aerial show. In doing our research this week, we noticed one really interesting thing, against common opponents; the margin of victory was almost exactly even. Not sure we have seen that before. Should be one of the more competitive, better games of 2013 thus far.

Trinity 28 Middlebury 24
Weather: Rain and snow showers possible, high of 49.


NESCAC Man's Picks
Last week: 5-0
Season (through five weeks): 21-4 (BTW, our secret to so accurately pick NESCAC games....common opponents...works nearly every time).

Go Team!

PS, Great to see you again Mr. Al Davis last weekend. Maybe you can get us a ride on one of those "boomers"? 

[AlDavis]

....well we all waited all day for NESCACMan 's report ,  he must be still busy as the day ends still making Stack's of High Society......Red Sox losing and staying under 7 helps my Homestead for today....I look forward to meeting 4More Years Saturday and glad that I am now friends with Lumbercat but will have keep my head on a swivel if it is some sort of Booby Trap Setup since he has implied before about his Providence friends but will take more than 5 Yahoos like the last attempt at the Kowloon Restaurant in Saugus in 2008.......want to also thank NESCAC Jack for answering my math riddle , there are some very smart , good people here in the NESCAC world.

[AlDavis]

...I was just about to go to bed.....and there it is NESCACMan .....NESCACMAn should have a segment on ESPN.....thanks NESCACMan.

[Nescacman]

...I was just about to go to bed.....and there it is NESCACMan .....NESCACMAn should have a segment on ESPN.....thanks NESCACMan.

Hey, thanks Al. Good luck up in Brunswick this weekend. There are several good lobster shacks in the area so be sure to check them out.  Maybe in the off season I will write a blog on best "Diners, Drive-ins and Dives" at each NESCAC school.

[Nescacman]

BTW....my spellcheck butchered the spelling of Bowdoin QB Caputi's last name...don't want anyone else to be mistaken for a guy that would be third string at best at many of the schools in the NESCAC. "We have a Coach Caputi at Bowdoin" (an Animal House reference for you film buffs out there and just in case you want to watch it):

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/an-n_RQJnYJmhbb44/animal_house_1978_getting_supplies_for_toga_party_part_2/

[nescac1]

I certainly have no inside knowledge of the Williams football program, but I can say this about athletics at Williams, in general: I don't believe that Williams has at any time since I've followed the school (about 20 years) EVER fired a coach based on W-L record.  I can think of a grand total of ONE coach who was fired during that time, and that was based on a variety of factors, including some, let's say, politically incorrect statements that he made.  And while most Williams sports have been successful, there have been some notable exceptions, as Williams has recently featured some poor win-loss records, over a  several year period, in a few sports -- yet those coaches remain in place.  Now, football has a lot higher profile, but assuming that Coach Kelton is well-liked by players and peers, and his players perform well in the classroom and haven't been involved in any sort of problematic behavior outside the playing field (I have no reason to think otherwise), I have a feeling that the school would be reluctant to part ways with him over anything as uncouth (in the high-academic D-3 vernacular) as wins and losses ... Ohio State or USC, this ain't. 

The honest truth is that while a few alums with a lot of money care about football, 95 percent of Williams alums (and probably the majority of the current student body) who you speak with will have no idea about Williams' win-loss record in any given year.  The only game that is paid attention to, if at all, is Amherst.  And while there will be some general grumbling if Amherst beats Williams for a third time in a row, the vast majority of alumni still won't care.  I just can't imagine a huge (or even a material) groundswell of support for replacing Coach Kelton unless the team has more than two or three losing seasons in a row. 

And I do note that the team has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, and returns almost every key player next season -- including the entire two-deep on the offensive line, and six out of seven guys from the defensive front seven -- except for QB, which will for the fourth consecutive year remain a huge question mark.  But if, say, the Ephs got a big-time transfer (any more Footes out there ?) or stretched a bit for a superstar frosh at QB, the team's prognosis would change in a hurry, with enough talent on hand at other positions to at least return to a 5-3 or 6-2 type team (especially if the team evens out the turnover differential, which tends to vary a lot from year-to-year, as Phil Steele often says in his prognostications, turnovers = turnaround and the odds are the Ephs will not be minus 12 again anytime soon). 

Kelton HAS shown he can win if he has an elite QB at his disposal.  The fact is, whether it is his fault, his assistants', or admissions', he has not recruited one.  But as we have seen at Wesleyan, and as we saw at Amherst after the Ostendarp era ended (when Amherst was in a BIG hurry to improve the team, and admissions cooperated), all it takes is admissions letting in a few extra superstar guys per year, over a several-year period, to quickly change the trajectory of a program.  The new stadium can only help as well, as Williams goes from perhaps the worst facilities in NESCAC to the best.  Hence, to the extent there is pressure exerted by any alumni with the resources to have influence (and I'm not sure there has been or will be), I think the pressure would involve letting a few more guys slide per year in admissions and at least partially reversing some of the recent tightening, before a coach would be fired.  If Kelton was given a few more true stars per year to work with, and still couldn't reverse the slide in fortunes, maybe, maybe things would change then.   I don't want to let him off the hook entirely -- I have been critical of both offensive and defensive strategies at times, and as a coach your first job is to recruit, and ultimately, you are the one accountable for how the team performs.  But if Pat Lucey or Pat Moffitt or Sean Keenan was the QB of this squad, and they had an Ethan Brooks or Bobby Walker or Scott Farley on defense, I am pretty confident that the team would be a 6-2 or 7-1 or even 8-0 squad again, with or without a coaching change. 

Again, this is all speculation, but informed by watching twenty years of how Williams athletics operates.