FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

2015 Week #2 NESCAC Preview and Predictions

Welcome to Week 2 in the NESCAC..."the league where they pay to play". We had a good first week going 4-1. The only thing that stood between us and a perfect week was 3 missed XPs by the 2014 All-'CAC Second Team kicker. In Week #1, all of the road favorites won. Road teams will not do as well in Week #2.

This week is one of the worst slates of games you will see in the NESCAC with 4 of the 5 games looking to be blowouts. Our GOTW (by default) is the only game that should be competitive: Tufts/Bates. We expect the following players to have big offensive performances this week: Berry (WES), Puzzo (HST), Milano (although he may not get enough PT to rack up big stats)(MID), Foy (AMH), Adinkra (AMH), and Carroll (Bates).

Wesleyan University at Hamilton College: We think the Conts are in for a long day against the young Cards who will get Coach Dice win number one in his career. We expect Wes to run at will against Hamilton. Expect 3 of the following 5 players to go over 100 yards rushing for Wesleyan: Berry, Stephens, Drew, Carillo, and Hawkins. We'll go with Berry, Drew and Carillo. In order for Hamilton to have any chance, Chase Rosenberg is going to have to do his best Matt Milano imitation. We don't think that is going to happen.

Wesleyan 42 Hamilton 14
Weather: Not a factor (weather courtesy of the Weather Channel).

Williams College at Hartford State College: Back to reality for the Keltmen and the HCOF. We expect QB Puzzo to out on a show and the 'State defense to play hard and completely shutdown QB Lommen and the Ephs in their home opener in the Coop.

Hartford State 37 Williams 7
Weather: High in the low 50's, 80% chance of showers.

Colby College at Middlebury College: This game will get very ugly very quickly for the Mules. Milano's day could end early and QB Jared "The Gambler" Lebowitz could see his first significant amount of PT in garbage time for the Panthers. Expect "The Gambler" to put up some gaudy stats against weak competition. Colby gets shut out for the second straight week.

Middlebury 49 Colby 0
Weather: Not a factor.

Bowdoin College at Amherst College: Another ugly one-sided affair. We think Amherst could easily break 50 in this one and perhaps score even more as the JV tries to make an impression on Coach Mills.

Amherst 52 Bowdoin 7
Weather: AM showers, high in the low 50's.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Tufts University at Bates College: Our GOTW is the best of a bad slate of games. Bates does play well at home (last week excluded). Last year in Medford, these two teams played a very entertaining shoot-out. We do not expect anything different this year. Here's the scoop...our sources tell us that the Tufts coaches like Dartmouth transfer DiBiaso better than current starter Alex Snyder. We think there will be a change at QB at some point (perhaps this week).

Bates 28 Tufts 27
Weather: Not a factor.

NESCACMAN's Picks
Last week: 4-1 (2015 season to date: 4-1)
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8

[Nescacman]

My prediction: Middlebury 17 - Colby 14 with a chance of flipping those scores.

RetiredMule...how about I take MID and give you 3???

[polbear73]

Thanks, PolarCat; and unfortunate but very accurate representation of what's going on. 

[RetiredMule]

Nescacman - Someone has to remain optimistic about Colby on these boards.  Otherwise Colby's predicted record would be 0-14 being outscored 70-0 each week.

[PolarCat]

I do wish they'd mix the schedule up a bit.  Rather than letting the top teams beat up on the other teams at the start of the season, why not let the teams who finished 6-9 play each other the first couple weeks, while the top dogs slog it out?  I would think the real challenge for Colby's coach, and Hamilton's coach is keeping the boys positive after they start out 0-3.

Let the "Lower CAC" play each other the first two weeks, while the "Upper CAC" does the same.  Middle of the season, mix it up: with a victory or two under their belt, can one of the "Lower CAC" pull an upset over one of the "Upper CAC"?  Still leaves time for traditional rivalries, and shoot-outs for first place and DFL at the end of the season.

Tufts' results from last year notwithstanding, there is not THAT much movement year-to-year, so scheduling shouldn't be too difficult.  For example, Week 1 could have been:

• Bowdoin v. Hamilton
• Tufts v. Colby
• Bates v. Williams
• Amherst v. Trinity
• Wes v. Midd

I think that would make for a much more exciting start to the season. 

[Nescacman]

I do wish they'd mix the schedule up a bit.  Rather than letting the top teams beat up on the other teams at the start of the season, why not let the teams who finished 6-9 play each other the first couple weeks, while the top dogs slog it out?  I would think the real challenge for Colby's coach, and Hamilton's coach is keeping the boys positive after they start out 0-3.

Let the "Lower CAC" play each other the first two weeks, while the "Upper CAC" does the same.  Middle of the season, mix it up: with a victory or two under their belt, can one of the "Lower CAC" pull an upset over one of the "Upper CAC"?  Still leaves time for traditional rivalries, and shoot-outs for first place and DFL at the end of the season.

Tufts' results from last year notwithstanding, there is not THAT much movement year-to-year, so scheduling shouldn't be too difficult.  For example, Week 1 could have been:

• Bowdoin v. Hamilton
• Tufts v. Colby
• Bates v. Williams
• Amherst v. Trinity
• Wes v. Midd

I think that would make for a much more exciting start to the season.

PolarCat, we have a better idea. How about those second tier teams commit to putting a competitive team on the field? As a reminder, until 5 years ago, many of us would have put Wesleyan smack dab in the middle of the "lower tier". By making a commitment to athletics, and football in particular, they have clearly elevated themselves to the upper echelon of the league. As a reminder, not only are they winning in football, but they have been NESCAC champions in other "major" sports such as basketball and baseball, in the last 6 months alone.

On a related note, as we have previously discussed, one of the ideas being discussed if a 9th game is added is rotating the early part of the schedule taking into consideration year end traditional rivalry games.

[PolarCat]

Good golly, why didn't I think of that?  It's so easy when you put it that way!

While we're at it, why don't we also commit to:

• Balancing the budget
• Attaining lasting peace in the Middle East
• Curing cancer
• Ending climate change
• Creating full employment, and a resurgent middle class
• Rehabilitating all inmates so we can empty the jails
• Having a Presidential election with 2 outstanding, charismatic, capable candidates
• Helping PolarCat grow a full head of hair.

Sadly, I don't think it's that simple.  Winning begets winning, and the schools that go 8-0 and 7-1 will always attract more star athletes than the schools that go 3-5 or 1-7.  The Administration can't simply wake up one morning and decree "We're going to be NESCAC Football Champions", unless and until the system of tips is completely reworked.

[Nescacman]

Sadly, I don't think it's that simple.  Winning begets winning, and the schools that go 8-0 and 7-1 will always attract more star athletes than the schools that go 3-5 or 1-7.  The Administration can't simply wake up one morning and decree "We're going to be NESCAC Football Champions", unless and until the system of tips is completely reworked.

PolarCat, then how do you explain what happened at Wesleyan and now is in process of happening at Tufts as well. Magic? Luck? Divine intervention? Your theory just doesn't hold water. Those programs elevated themselves with no changes to the current system. It can happen.

[NewtoNescac]

Nescacman, I agree with you completely. Tufts and Wesleyan are to prime examples being turned around with excellent HCs that wanted to build programs. That's how you win. You never win by making excuses. Play the cards your dealt, ie. a less than supportive Administraftion, and find a way to be competitive. Excuses are for losers.

[PolarCat]

I would suggest there are mitigating factors in those cases.

First, they are the only two Universities in the 'CAC, and have the largest student bodies.  Tufts is three times the size of Bates or Bowdoin, and twice the size of Middlebury.  So they have a deeper pool of applicants / incoming athletes each year.

More importantly, as colleges stress diversity in their student bodies, a larger institution like Tufts or Wes may well have a bigger variance in SAT's and other academic factors that a small, ultra-selective school like Bowdoin.  A broader range of SAT's in the incoming class as a whole allows a broader range of SAT's in the FY players.  So based strictly on the variance in the student body's SAT, GPA and Class Rank, that lightning quick WR who's a C band at Bowdoin might be a B band at Wes.

Second, the one mechanism I can see whereby an Administration could elevate a program is to allocate more of the school's tips (I believe the number is 14 for football, plus 2 for every other varsity sport) to football.  In other words, starving other sports of recruits to feed the football program.  Now, I have no idea if the Whale did that at Wes, but I do know there are some sports (like WLAX) who dwell at the bottom of the conference year-in and year-out (despite a coach with a pretty famous last name).  Much as I love football, I hardly think that approach is fair to the other student athletes.

Finally, Tufts' 2014 "breakthrough" season helps to prove my original point, as the Jumbos opened with Hamilton, then Bates, then Bowdoin.  A quick 2-1 start (which could easily have been 3-0) to build confidence and generate a buzz.  They have the same sequence this year. 

Compare that to Bowdoin (Williams > Amherst > Tufts in both 2014 and 2015) or Hamilton (Tufts > Wes > Trinity both years), and I'd argue that the schedule makes it easier for Tufts to start the season with a winning record, and let the momentum build from there.  Why not mix up the schedule more?

[PolarCat]

Nescacman, I agree with you completely. Tufts and Wesleyan are to prime examples being turned around with excellent HCs that wanted to build programs. That's how you win. You never win by making excuses. Play the cards your dealt, ie. a less than supportive Administraftion, and find a way to be competitive. Excuses are for losers.

Have you ever coached at any level? 

You turn a program around by taking an honest look at all the factors that have held it back in the past, and fixing them one-by-one.  That's not "making excuses", it's "problem solving".  You cannot build a program without athletes, and you can't get quality athletes without the help of Admissions, the AD and the Administration.  And having the conference stick you with a schedule that pretty much guarantees you start the season with a losing record is a challenge to be overcome, not a "suck it up and live with it" moment.

BTW it's "two" not "to", "you're" not "your", and "Administration" not "Administraftion".  I know: spelling is for losers, right?

[NewtoNescac]

Trust me, I know how to spell, but missing typos on my phone is a big deal to you. I may not be a privileged boy like you, but I'm a first generation college grad, and law school grad.

And yes, not only did I coach for 15 years, but I started a youth football program from scratch, built it and ran it successfully for 10 years, and have helped many kids get into quality high schools, and colleges. What have you done?

Regarding football, my point was that great HCs build programs, and poor HCs can destroy a quality program. Just look at Williams. The Administration did not abandon the program when Whalen left, yet the program's gone down hill. As for excuses, I say they're for losers.

[NewtoNescac]

Regarding the discussion of schedule significance, I do believe that starting with a weaker first few games is a plus. And, it only seems reasonable and fair to juggle the schedule somewhat from year to year.

[lumbercat]

Pbearfan-

Thanks for your response to my post.

Let me clarify....your inferences suggest some confusion.

If I thought Bowdoin was taking the Swarthmore or Oberlin route I would say that. That's not the case though I do feel that Bowdoin is closer to that mindset, among their faculty and administration than other NESCAC schools.

My point is that Bowdoin has risen significantly in national ratings over the past 10 years at a time when their Football program has ascended to it's all time abyss. This set of circumstances reinforces the anti jock faction in Brunswick especially among the Bowdoin faculty. It's a feather in Bowdoins academic cap..... so who needs an expensive Football program???.....we are #4!

I believe this mindset which is prevalent in Brunswick poses a challenge for new HFC Wells.

Your comparison to Amherst and Williams is invalid- both of those colleges embrace athletics and WINNING as an integral part in their academic philosophies while many at Bowdoin see Football with it's brutality and financial burden as a negative factor that does not conform to their ideologies for their college.

[Nescacman]

I would suggest there are mitigating factors in those cases.

First, they are the only two Universities in the 'CAC, and have the largest student bodies.  Tufts is three times the size of Bates or Bowdoin, and twice the size of Middlebury.  So they have a deeper pool of applicants / incoming athletes each year.

More importantly, as colleges stress diversity in their student bodies, a larger institution like Tufts or Wes may well have a bigger variance in SAT's and other academic factors that a small, ultra-selective school like Bowdoin.  A broader range of SAT's in the incoming class as a whole allows a broader range of SAT's in the FY players.  So based strictly on the variance in the student body's SAT, GPA and Class Rank, that lightning quick WR who's a C band at Bowdoin might be a B band at Wes.

Second, the one mechanism I can see whereby an Administration could elevate a program is to allocate more of the school's tips (I believe the number is 14 for football, plus 2 for every other varsity sport) to football.  In other words, starving other sports of recruits to feed the football program.  Now, I have no idea if the Whale did that at Wes, but I do know there are some sports (like WLAX) who dwell at the bottom of the conference year-in and year-out (despite a coach with a pretty famous last name).  Much as I love football, I hardly think that approach is fair to the other student athletes.

Finally, Tufts' 2014 "breakthrough" season helps to prove my original point, as the Jumbos opened with Hamilton, then Bates, then Bowdoin.  A quick 2-1 start (which could easily have been 3-0) to build confidence and generate a buzz.  They have the same sequence this year. 

Compare that to Bowdoin (Williams > Amherst > Tufts in both 2014 and 2015) or Hamilton (Tufts > Wes > Trinity both years), and I'd argue that the schedule makes it easier for Tufts to start the season with a winning record, and let the momentum build from there.  Why not mix up the schedule more?

The last we are going to say on this subject before we get back to some real football...

So Polarcat, if we follow your logic, how does that explain the success of Amherst and Middlebury who are both "small, ultra-selective schools like Bowdoin" (to quote you)? If we follow your logic, Tufts and Wesleyan should win the league every year.

Although we dont have a dog in the fight, we also have to comment on WLax since we have some knowledge on the subject (having served on the Board of our state's girls lax organization, coached WLax for 10+ plus years and our daughter is a current NESCAC recruit). As you probably know 'Cac WLax is the best D3 WLax conference in the country (MLax as well). Although Wes was 5-10 last year, Laxpower had them ranked in the Top 50 in the country. Coach Bill B's daughter, Amanda. left Wes (she is the new HC of WLax at Holy Cross). What did AD Whalen do? He went out and recruited a top flight coach (Kim Williams...she is recruiting my daughter). Wes WLax will be very competitive in the next 3-4 years, just as their MLax program has been for years. Having studied Wesleyan's athletic program as a model to be followed by all NESCAC schools, AD Whales wants to be the best in every sport, not just football, baseball, basketball, tennis, soccer, lax, etc.

Lastly, w are getting a little tired of the elitist attitude that alumni of certain schools seem to have towards their NESCAC brethren. Let's call it like it is. All of the schools in the 'CAC are great and all have their strengths and weaknesses. They all rank at or near the top of all of the major rankings: US News, Forbes, etc. Frankly, they are all within spitting distance of each other academically.

As far as Bowdoin's lack of success on the gridiron, I don't think you can point to one factor for their failure but rather many factors including but not limited to commitment of the administration, attitude of the faculty and student body, location of the school, lack of diversity, weather, athletic facilities, and coaching.

Are you ready for some football?