FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[NewtoNescac]

With the CBB all at 0-3, I bring my weekly picks to hopefully lighten up our day. This is out on a limb, "upset week" for me. So here goes:

Williams 30  Middlebury 28
I'm just not sold on Middlebury's pass only offense, and marginal defense. And, Williams has surprised me this season. So, look for Kelton to shock everyone, with his back seemingly to the wall.

Tufts 24  Trinity 20
Trinity's offense is ok, and their defense is good but overrated. I really think Tufts is looking at this game as their opportunity to take the next step. This is the game that will have everyone taking them very seriously.

Bates 22  Wesleyan 21
Bates can and will run the ball on Wesleyan, and if they can hold Wes' QB from running too much on them, they squeak out a close one. Bates is due to put it all together, and Wesleyan just isn't that good.

Hamilton 14  Bowdoin 7
Battle of the winless. It just appears Hamilton is closer to putting it together than Bowdoin at this point. The game probably will be decided based on which team commits the most turnovers, or has the more costly penalties. But, one of these teams will end the day smiling and moving in the right direction. It just feels like Hamilton to me.

Colby 27  Amherst 21 (OT)
Colby was leading the undefeated Jeffs last season 3-0 at the half. If they can hold them to 3 TDs, avoid costly turnovers, and finally get their offense going and match those scores, Colby can shock them in OT. This is the week Colby "learns how to win".

[P'bearfan]

Hamilton 14  Bowdoin 7
Battle of the winless. It just appears Hamilton is closer to putting it together than Bowdoin at this point. The game probably will be decided based on which team commits the most turnovers, or has the more costly penalties. But, one of these teams will end the day smiling and moving in the right direction. It just feels like Hamilton to me.

Unfortunately you may be right with this pick.  I'm not sure if Drakeley will be available to play.  While Nelson did a workman-like job while he was in last week, it's hard to switch QB's mid-way through the season.

[nescac1]

NewToNescac, I'd LOVE if you were right on these, but it's rare that ANY monumental upsets occur in NESCAC football, and you are picking FOUR in one week ... ain't gonna happen. 

[NewtoNescac]

nescac1 - I said it was "out on a limb". I'm way out, and some would read those picks and say I'm not only out on a limb, I'm out of my mind. lol. We shall see.

[polbear73]

Hamilton 14  Bowdoin 7
Battle of the winless. It just appears Hamilton is closer to putting it together than Bowdoin at this point. The game probably will be decided based on which team commits the most turnovers, or has the more costly penalties. But, one of these teams will end the day smiling and moving in the right direction. It just feels like Hamilton to me.

Unfortunately you may be right with this pick.  I'm not sure if Drakeley will be available to play.  While Nelson did a workman-like job while he was in last week, it's hard to switch QB's mid-way through the season.

Not only Drakeley, but will Tyler Grant play?  And can Bowdoin's defense stop anything? 

[amh63]

Last week all home teams " held serve".  Amherst has to travel this week...and yes Colby held Amherst in check for a time last season...only to lose big time at the end.  All things considered...I think the LJs will sweep the CBB again this season.
Coaches will be focusing on reducing mistakes....especially the false start calls and fumbles.  Will not overlook a dangerous Colby team.

[RetiredMule]

With regards to the OC situation, Michaeles was the OC, brought in a new one for two completely ineffectual years, brought in another for last years stinker, and now is not showing some great fire at the helm this year.  He brings in offensive coordinators who, like him, tend to be too broad and diversified and end up without a solid identity.  Too much mix between zone and power.  Too much mix between different passing concepts.  Good offensive  teams in this league balance by finding a scheme that works and forming their identity around it.  Colby has been a little bit of everything offensively and that is no way to form a offensive identity. 

[NewtoNescac]

RetiredMule - You are right on the mark. The Colby offense needs to finds "it's voice". They are capable of playing with anyone, yet they haven't playing with anyone. My continued hope is that it all ends this Saturday with a big offensive effort, and win, against Amherst.

[NewtoNescac]

For those interested, Nothingbutnescac has the weekly power ratings posted. They did a nice job explaining how they arrived at this week's rankings.

[hamgrand]

NewToNescac -

This week I absolutely agree with you ... you are "out of your mind!"  lol

Actually, your picks are just crazy enough that one could actually envision a scenario where each of them happens, individually ... but not likely all in the same week.  I do applaud your willingness to go out on a limb and stimulate interesting discussion!

Here are my thoughts on this weeks predictions:

I believe Williams is improving, but expect Middlebury to come out fired up at home.  Their bend but don't break defense is much better than marginal, and I expect their offense will get on track this week.  Could be close game with Midd on top, but it also would not surprise me if they won by a decent margin.

Trinity over Tufts 28 - 14.  Tufts will score on Trinity, but their defense will not be able to hold Trinity in check.

I will give you Bates over Wesleyan.  But Wesleyan is home which gives them an edge.  So score could easily be swapped.

I agree that Hamilton should and will beat Bowdoin, with one contingency ... That they win the turnover battle up in Brunswick.  Hamilton would have won more games in the last two years without the turnover (32 interceptions) trouble they had.  Hopefully those days are behind and good times are ahead!

I have surmised from your posts that you are a Colby fan.  And therefore I wish you all the luck on the pick over Amherst.  It would actually delight me if your pick came true.  So on that one I will watch and hope!

Best of luck this week and it will be another fun weekend watching the action!     

[NewtoNescac]

Hamgrand - I like your analysis, other than me being "out of my mind". lol. Getting some good natured conversation going really is the intention. So, I won't be giving up my day job.

[middhoops]

With the CBB all at 0-3, I bring my weekly picks to hopefully lighten up our day. This is out on a limb, "upset week" for me. So here goes:

Williams 30  Middlebury 28
I'm just not sold on Middlebury's pass only offense, and marginal defense. And, Williams has surprised me this season. So, look for Kelton to shock everyone, with his back seemingly to the wall.

Tufts 24  Trinity 20
Trinity's offense is ok, and their defense is good but overrated. I really think Tufts is looking at this game as their opportunity to take the next step. This is the game that will have everyone taking them very seriously.

Bates 22  Wesleyan 21
Bates can and will run the ball on Wesleyan, and if they can hold Wes' QB from running too much on them, they squeak out a close one. Bates is due to put it all together, and Wesleyan just isn't that good.

Hamilton 14  Bowdoin 7
Battle of the winless. It just appears Hamilton is closer to putting it together than Bowdoin at this point. The game probably will be decided based on which team commits the most turnovers, or has the more costly penalties. But, one of these teams will end the day smiling and moving in the right direction. It just feels like Hamilton to me.

Colby 27  Amherst 21 (OT)
Colby was leading the undefeated Jeffs last season 3-0 at the half. If they can hold them to 3 TDs, avoid costly turnovers, and finally get their offense going and match those scores, Colby can shock them in OT. This is the week Colby "learns how to win".

Thanks for some less than serious fare.
It would be fun to have a week of upsets (except Midd of course) in a league that remains boringly predictable.
+k for a great post.

[PolarCat]

One wild card that could have an impact this Saturday: It seems like half the people I know have been laid low by the bug that's going around.  If it is circulating through any 'CAC teams (and I have no inside knowledge of that being the case, I am just guessing by the number of folks I know who are fighting it), a couple of sick players at key positions could help generate some of those otherwise-implausible upsets.

Unless the sick player is named Matt Hasselbeck, of course.  I'm still in awe of his performance last weekend.

[lumbercat]

The Bates play calling was puzzling last week.
They threw the ball poorly all day- 2 for 14.
They started to get their running game going in the fourth quarter and closed the Purple lead to 16-14 with a nice scoring drive in the 4th.
Kemptons D held Williams again and got the ball back to the Bobcat offense late in the 4th.
They continued their momentum on the ground and drove nicely from deep in their own territory to the Williams 30 (I think there was about 1:30 on the clock) With 2 time outs left at this point Bates threw the ball for the next 3 downs. On 3rd down and 10 it looked like they completed a first down reception on the Williams sideline at the 19 but the zebras disagreed. There was a subsequent penalty which backed them up to the 45- a 4th and 25 with maybe 15 seconds left...sack, game over and a tough ride back to Lewiston.
The Bates staff will channel the frustration to energy and the Bobcats will be ready in Middletown this week. Hope they mix it up bit on offense.

[Eagle322]

@lumbercat I am hoping we see Bates take the reigns off of Dugan a bit more this week and open up the playbook. He had a breakout game on the ground last week with 16 rushes for 74 yards, but struggled passing the ball -- given most passes were called in very predictable situations. Dugan looked much more comfortable and the second half vs Williams when they seemed to be going towards more double option plays, abandoning the initial read with the dive back and allowing the QB and slot back to go out and make plays without having to worry about the proper initial read. More of this, along with some early down passes, would be a good thing for the 'Cats and get the ball in the hands of their playmakers (Riley, Carrol, Nichol, Williams) as much as possible.

Another thing to keep an eye on is the health of Shaun Carrol. Know he missed a large part of the 2nd half after tweaking a knee/leg and wasn't out there for the end of the game last week. Losing him would be big for Bates, who would miss not only his play making ability but strong on-field leadership. He's the only player to serve as a captain for every game this season.