FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[JEFFFAN]

Re the Maine series or the Little Three, they mattered before there was a NESCAC.  Once the structure of a NESCAC came into play, CBB and Little Three became, by definition, less important.   My guess is that if Wesleyan were to win the Little Three but come in third in the NESCAC to Trinity and Middlebury, it would tout winning the Little Three but know damn well that they came in third place in the NESCAC and that was their ultimate goal.   Same for Bowdoin - if they were to win the CBB but come in third in the NESCAC, the accolades would be very short and only a little sweet.

[NewtoNescac]

JEFFFAN - If Bowdoin won the CBB, and came in 3rd in the NESCAC, they'd be having a parade in downtown Brunswick. lol. At this point, same goes for Colby and Bates.

[P'bearfan]

JEFFFAN - If Bowdoin won the CBB, and came in 3rd in the NESCAC, they'd be having a parade in downtown Brunswick. lol. At this point, same goes for Colby and Bates.

Can I get an AMEN?!

[PolarCat]

JEFFFAN - If Bowdoin won the CBB, and came in 3rd in the NESCAC, they'd be having a parade in downtown Brunswick.

Maybe so, but the organizers would be forced to use Priuses (Prii?) instead of convertibles, pick-up trucks or flatbeds.  And the NARP Lives Matter / Divestment crowd would be picketing Clayton Rose's office demanding the College (1.) hold a comparable parade to celebrate the accomplishments of the Bowdoin transgender community, (2.) use the athletic department budget to fund the planting of 500 trees to (literally) reforest the tickertape and (3.) endow a chair in Non-Athletic Studies.

[NewtoNescac]

P'bearfan & PolarCat - Funny posts. Thanks for taking my mind off  the 0-4 start for even a short time.

[polbear73]

JEFFFAN - If Bowdoin won the CBB, and came in 3rd in the NESCAC, they'd be having a parade in downtown Brunswick.

Maybe so, but the organizers would be forced to use Priuses (Prii?) instead of convertibles, pick-up trucks or flatbeds.  And the NARP Lives Matter / Divestment crowd would be picketing Clayton Rose's office demanding the College (1.) hold a comparable parade to celebrate the accomplishments of the Bowdoin transgender community, (2.) use the athletic department budget to fund the planting of 500 trees to (literally) reforest the tickertape and (3.) endow a chair in Non-Athletic Studies.

PolarCat:  Who says that the truth hurts?  This is funny!

[Nescacman]

2015 Week 5 NESCAC Weekly Power Rankings

Four weeks into the season and still no upsets or surprises. Our game of the week this week will be the a Little 3 battle as Wesleyan heads north to face the Lord Jeffrey Amherst's.

1.   Amherst (LW #1): Amherst blew out Colby last week. 3 of the last 4 games for the LJs are against quality competition (Wesleyan, Tufts and Trinity). This week they host Wes, the last team to beat them back in 2013 (they have won 15 straight games). Amherst's league leading offense has scored 30 or more points in every game except one and their defense is only allowing 10 points per game. We think Amherst and Trinity are on a collision course playing for the 2015 NESCAC Championship on November 7th.   

2.   Hartford State (LW #2): Big scare for the Bants last week against Tufts as they eked out a win in OT. HS has only given up 3 TD's all year and leads the league by a wide margin in total defense. However, everything is not chicken feed in the Coup. Trinity gave up 27 points last week to the only decent offense they have faced all year. Plus they finish the season with games against strong teams at Middlebury and Amherst before they host a Wesleyan squad that will have that much more experience under their belt. Stay tuned.

3.   Middlebury (LW #3): Good bounce back win for Middlebury against the Ephs on Homecoming. To prove our point on the predictability of their offense, of the 282 offensive plays they have run, 167 have been passes (nearly 60%) while only 115 have been runs. Those 115 are only the second fewest in the league (tied with Hamilton) to Bowdoin's 98 runs. Middlebury's runs have yielded the second fewest amount of yards (214) while they have averaged a pathetic 1.9 YPC. Until they get a running attack, they will not challenge for the league title in 2015 or any other year (unless they have the second coming of Mac Foote at QB).

4.   Wesleyan (LW #4): Leading 24-9 to Bates, Wes almost blew it giving up a late TD and then letting Bates recover the ensuing onside kick. They have been winning ugly this year. Despite being #3 in total offense and total defense, penalties (they have had 3 TDs called back due penalty in 4 games) and lack of forcing turnovers (only 3 forced TO in 4 games) have kept this very young team from playing to its full potential. This week is a litmus test as the Cards face #1 ranked Amherst

5.   Tufts (LW #5): Tufts gave Hartford State a run for their money last week losing in OT. They continue to play well at home. In order for them to jump to the next level, they need to shore up their last in league pass defense. One reason Tufts is winning is they lead NESCAC in turnovers and Turnover Ratio. More importantly, they have finally balanced their offense and have actually run the ball more than they pass it (176 runs vs. 125 passes and a Tufts RB actually leads the 'CAC in rushing). Bates and Middlebury should be taking notes.

6.   Williams (LW #6): As expected, the HCOF and his minions turned in what has become a standard for the Kelts against a good NESCAC team (especially on the road) as they got crushed by Middlebury last week. What should concern the HCOF is his team does score or generate enough offense. Their running game is not effective and their QB is not getting it done (2nd to last in the 'CAC in pass efficiency; 3 TDs v. 6 INTS). They face another quality opponent at home this week in Tufts. We think the result will be what you would expect. The kountdown continues.

7.   Bates (LW #7): Bates continues to lose close games. Although they jumped out to a quick lead within the first 2 minutes against Wes, they generated little to no offense the rest of the game as Wesleyan made adjustments and got use to the speed of the option (it is tough for a scout team to replicate Bates offense in practice). Bottom-line, this offense will never allow Bates to consistently win. It is fairly easy to defend, is not made for the bad weather we see in the 'CAC, it is tough to play catch up with or use in a two minute drill, and results in tons of turnovers (Bates leads the 'CAC in fumbles lost). This week Bates faces another tough opponent at home against Middlebury.

8.   Bowdoin (LW#9): Congrats to Bowdoin and Coach Wells on their first win of the season. Surprisingly, Bowdoin's offense has not been the problem thus far and they seem to have found a keeper at QB in FY and co-player of the week. Noah Nelson (although they are having problems running the ball). The Polar Bears travel to the coup this week to face Hartford State. Hopefully, they're not looking ahead to Bates and Colby.

9.   Hamilton (LW #8): Hamilton has lost 24 games in a row and HC Murray has never won a game in the NESCAC. In comparison, FY Wesleyan Coach DiCenzo already has 3 wins. Hamilton is running out of chances for a win this year. This week they host Colby with a chance to break the longest losing steak in the country.

10.   Colby (LW#10): We think the reason that Colby is having such a tough time is they cannot effectively pass the ball (last in the 'CAC in pass efficiency and first in INTS). We think it is time to make a change at QB and perhaps in the coaching ranks as well. The incumbent signal caller has thrown 7 INTs and has no TD passes. This week they travel to Clinton to face the Conts. If they lose this one, watch out.

[JEFFFAN]

Okay ... those posts were great on the parade!!!   Everyone loves a parade, no matter what the celebration!

[NewtoNescac]

That's funny, JEFF

[lumbercat]

Nescacman-
Enjoy your posts- look forward to them each week.
I'm not a Colby fan but beleive they are better than #10.
They will prove it this Saturday against Hamilton with a solid win.
They are catching the rebuilding Buff n Blue at a good time.
Agreed the Mules have it tough with their schedule out of the box but catching Hamilton without heralded QB transfer Tobin and QB Resenberg is a gift the struggling Mules should capitalize on.

[amh63]

It is going to be chilly at Amherst for the Little three game.  I'm ok...not sure my wife will be..maybe get her to watch on the field house upper deck..inside.  Was passing thru the athletic buildings to check on the new dorms by the soccer fields.  Saw two Amherst coaches....including Coach Mills heading out to the Pratt field house...very intent carrying boxes.  I gave a hi and best wishes to both....as they passed by.  I do not think they even heard me....so focused on the game ahead.  Normally, if you see them at other times...always stop to chat briefly. Coach Mills will brief Alums at 7 am on Sat wrt the Wes game. 
Not me...too early! . Family gathering for breakfast a bit later.  Will just sit and watch the game with classmates and friends...expecting one in from London UK....a fullback on some fine teams..retired "investment banker" of sorts...never talk much about work history...more about how the players of today are bigger, faster and only play one way...yes we all tell faulty stories of "good old days".  All do appreciate good football.  Expect to see some played on Sat.

[NewtoNescac]

Amh63 - I do enjoy the warmth of your stories. It's obvious the affection you have for this game, and how much it's meant to you.

[PolarCat]

amh63's post prompted me to check Weather Underground.  It's going to drop below freezing tonight in Lewiston and Willytown (maybe elsewhere), and stay there till mid-morning.  I'm going to have to take it easy on the drive up tomorrow.  There may be some black ice lying in wait,and I'm still on my summer tires.

Salt on the roads before Halloween?  What a depressing thought.  Wasn't El Nino supposed to gift us a warm, pleasant winter?

[hamgrand]

A few thoughts regarding earlier posts on this weeks predictions.

1) i have been watching/following NESCAC football closely since 2010.  The league is much more balanced now than in the past.

2) although ranked #3, from comments it is clear that Posters are not showing much confidence in Middlebury offense and/or team this year.  They are 3 and 1 and were only down 10-7 to Amherst in 4Q before special teams play made difference in game.  Their running game and freshman running back is just starting to get rolling. Only future results will make believers, but I am a believer today.

3) I have seen all Middlebury's games, this year and Colby appeared to be the biggest team physically between, Wesleyan, Amherst, Williams and Middlebury. They will certainly give Hamilton a game.  My heart wants Hamilton to win, but I know it will be a battle.

4) if Hamilton is going to win, it needs better QB play.  Two turnovers in first half against Bowdoin was significant contributor to loss last week.  Same story in many games over the past two years.  Tough to win when you lose the turnover battle.  Murray will eventually get this corrected but it will take time.

6) NESCAC champ is not crowned until the end of the season.  Still have many big games left in this season which could have big impact on ultimate champion.  From what I can see, Amherst, Trinity, Middlebury, Wesleyan and Tufts are all stills in the hunt.

Good luck to all!

[Nescacman]

2015 Week #5 NESCAC Preview and Predictions

Welcome to Week 5 in the NESCAC..."the league where they pay to play". We went 4-1 last week and now stand at 12-3 for the season. This is the week of streaks....

Tufts University at Williams College: The "Kelton Kountdown" is now at 4 games and counting. We are shocked that the Williams Army is being so quiet on the coaching situation. With a loss this week, Williams will be headed towards another losing season. The over/under on "K-Day" (the day the HCOF is relieved of his duties) is November 30th. Tufts has lost the last 17 times they have faced Williams in Keltontown last winning in 1981. Streaks are made to be broken.

Tufts 31 Williams 21
Weather: Not a factor (weather courtesy of the Weather Channel).

Middlebury College at Bates College: Another streak on the line as Bates attempts to beat Middlebury for the first time since 1988. Bates is near the bottom of the conference in both total offense and total defense. The big problem for Bates is they are last in the conference in pass defense while the Panthers are first in passing offense. Interestingly, Bates is near the top in rush offense while Middlebury is near the bottom in rushing defense. This is a battle of two one-dimensional team. We think Middlebury's defense is the difference maker here as they win on the road in Lewiston.

Middlebury 31 Bates 14
Weather: Not a factor.

Colby College at Hamilton College: Really...who cares. Seriously, Hamilton has had a tough time against the Mules losing 47-14 (Colby led 40-0 at the half) last year and 37-18 on the road in Clinton in 2013. Colby has won their last 7 meetings with Hamilton. We expect a close, low scoring game. In these sorts of games, we like to go with the home team, especially when the visitors have to travel almost 6 hours by bus.

Hamilton 14 Colby 10
Weather: Chance of showers, high in the mid-50's.

Bowdoin College at Hartford State University:The bottom line is Hartford State does not lose at the coop. Tomorrow will be no exception. Another  streak...the Bants have won the last 16 meetings against Bowdoin. Bowdoin FY QB Noah Nelson will have to throw early and often. The problem is the Bants are first in the league in pass defense. This is Bant Alum JB Wells' first trip to the coup as a visitor. He's not going to like his visit.

Hartford State 35 Bowdoin 7
Weather: Not a factor.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Wesleyan University at Amherst College: The last time Amherst lost was in 2013 to a Wesleyan squad that would ultimately go on to win their first Little 3 Title in 43 years and a share of the NESCAC title. That was 15 games ago. This is a far different Wesleyan team in many ways: 18 new starters, new QB, new offense, new HC and two new coordinators. Despite all of those changes and leading the nation in penalty yards and leading the NESCAC in turning over the ball, Wes is still winning primarily because they lead the nation in TOP. Amherst is probably the best team in the league and for Wes to have a chance they will have not only control the clock, which they have been doing well this year, but win the turnover and penalty battle. If they do those things, I could see them coming away with the upset. Wes probably has more raw talent at the skill positions than any team in the league. We think they will play their best game of the year but this team will have to wait until 2016 to win another Little 3 and 'CAC Championship.

Amherst 28 Wesleyan 14
Weather: Not a factor.


NESCACMAN's Picks
Last week: 4-1 (2015 season to date: 16-4)
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 78-22 (.780 winning percentage)