FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

2016 Week #5 NESCAC Preview

Disclaimer: This post may contain some humor, sarcasm and views that some (particularly Williams fans) may find offensive, rude and off-putting. If you are someone that is easily offended, please move on to other posts. This will be your only warning! Continue at your own risk.

Welcome to Week 5 in the NESCAC..."the league where they pay to play". We were 4-1 in week 4, only losing the game that no one (or very few of us) care about it. Another bad schedule this week with only one game of consequence on the menu. Weather will be a big factor throughout the league.

Hamilton College at Colby College: Another bad match-up of 2 the worst teams in the league. The only thing that this game will win is the longest drive of the week (7 hours). Needless to say, we don't expect many Cont students to be making the trip to Waterville. Coach Michaeles has given the Mules the last 3 weeks off. Perhaps he'll change the schedule this week?!? Why Hamilton will win: The Conts and Mules have played similar competition but Hamilton has played them slightly closer, the Conts have a better offense and defense than the Mules, the Conts are better coached (that's for you AU Pep), and we will go with the hot hand in Conts QB Kenny Gray. The Conts are last in the league in turnover ratio and need to hold on to the "Duke" to win.
Hamilton 17 Colby 14
Weather: Showers, high 65.

Hartford State College at Bowdoin College: The best in the NESCAC against the worst. Unless the HS bus breaks down, the JV gets lots of work in this one. Last patsy for HS before they play some real competition over the last 3 weeks (MID, FKA LJs, WES). Why Hartford State will win: No need to answer this.
Hartford State 41 Bowdoin 7
Weather: Showers, high 66.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Middlebury College: Which UB shows up? The UB that looked decent two weeks ago or the UB team that looked awful last week against Wes. The Pants can be scored on, but unfortunately, UB is offensively challenged. Although UB is decent against the pass, they have not faced the likes of "The Gambler". Why Middlebury will win: They are home, they have a much better QB than UB and they can put up a ton of points. Weather will keep the Pants from going nuts through the air.
Middlebury 35 UBates 14
Weather: Rain, neigh of 50.

Williams College at Tufts University: Another "L" for the Ephs. We expect RB Brady to have a big week for the Jumbo's against a weak Williams run defense. This game should give the Tufts moms an opportunity to spend plenty of time at the tailgate drinking wine, like they should be. Why Tufts will win: The Ephs will be looking ahead to a week 6 showdown against Hamilton.
Tufts 28 Williams 17
Weather: Showers and windy. High 63.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Amherst College at Wesleyan University: Big question for the team formerly known as the Lord Jeff's is who is going to QB this Saturday. In case Wes Coach DiCenzo is reading our blog word out of Amherst camp is that Berlutti was fitted with a leg brace last weekend and was going to give it go at practice this week. We think Amherst is probably better off with a fairly immobile QB in Morales, who can throw the ball downfield vs a hobbled Berlutti who is not nearly adept at passing the ball. Wes has been on a roll and has looked very good the last 3 weeks. These teams are very evenly matched and are both very well coached. Why Wesleyan will win: Weather will be a factor and Wesleyan runs the ball better than Amherst does. However, we expect it to be a very close game that could come down to a FG in the last few minutes. We give the home field the edge.
Wesleyan 24 Amherst 23
Weather: Showers. High 58.

NESCACMAN's Picks
2016 Season: 17-3
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 109-31 (.779 winning percentage)

[westcoastDad]

So, I asked another good buddy of mine......he's a cardiologist.  Smart guy.  Knows his football.  SC grad.  Yo, is a FG kicker a football player or a specialist.

He laughed and said, "I would have said he's a specialist until my son became backup FG kicker in high school." 

Hmmm, partiality is a mofo.

[westcoastDad]

Google PICTURE of a FOOTBALL player. 

see what ya get. 

Grabowski, on my lame computer the search gave me several hundreds of images.   Only 1 pic could I find that was resembling a PK.  There weren't any Punters or LongSnappers (they kinda go together).

Now, not to be accused of being a contrarian.  Or, as one inboxer continues to accuse me of incredible "hyperbole", let's just stick to basic priniciples of what we learned in STATISTICS class?

In most, scientific experiments, they have that standard deviation right?  plus or minus..........blah blah blah gives you that statistical significance right?  or, something like that.

let's make it even simpler.  why?  remember that 1 drop of blood definition?  do you know how many people in this country actually have that 1 drop yet will defiantly declare until DEATH that they are not that drop of "blood" deemed to be negative while they cling to the better representation.  LOL.

So, back to the images.  I probably counted over 500 images when I googled "picture of a Football Player".  If more than 10% of those pictures are those of somebody kicking a gridiron football then I will rest my case.

But, if I only see 1 picture/image out of a 1000, I will just put that in the deviation that isn't relevant category.

SPECIALIST


ps polar cat , lumber cat, utes, etc.    NICE TRY (again) but, from the great movie  A FEW GOOD MEN......... "You can't handle the Truth"


Dodgers getting whipped.

Hamilton 24 Colby 14

Amherst will beat Wesleyan as their seniors try to finish with 5 consecutive wins.  Would be a great finish for their group.  30-2?  But, it's going to be super tough..........Wesleyan, Tufts, Trinity and then Williams.

[westcoastDad]

Injury Update from the Pioneer Valley:

it doesn't matter because "next man up" is in play.  Middlebury loss still chaps the hide of the Amherst football team.  They know they could have gotten that W.  However, this reporter still doesn't think this team of Purple and White has been tested.  Wesleyan has a running game as well as a passing attack.  Both have to be respected.  The Purple People Eaters defense is giving up less than 7 yards per game.  Best in the nation.  But, is that a true reflection of their stingy defensive 7, or is that a combination of having played inferior teams and Middlebury (a passing offense). 

Weather forecast is 57 degrees.  50% chance of light rain.  winds up to mid 30mph. 

Has Amherst made the adjustments necessary to get their running game going.  If not, I'm predicting a very difficult game for my favorite NESCAC team.  I'm just not sure our passing game in inclement weather will be enough to overtake a now veteran secondary.....on their home hostile turf. 

[Grabowski]

Google PICTURE of a FOOTBALL player. 

see what ya get. 

In the name of science, I took your challenge, and the very first man I saw was Josh Brown.

And then after I clicked "images" I learned that many soccer players are actually football players, as are occasional gals in underwear and shoulder pads.

I am now convinced that yes, kickers are football players, a tomato is a fruit, a cox is a rower, and Manute Bol was a basketball player.  Now I need to turn my attention to a very interesting question posted by Hamgrand.

[Grabowski]

After the NESCAC season, lets split up all the players from all schools  by position.  All centers on one team, all guards, all tackles, TE, WR, RB, SS, FS, CBs, LB, etc etc.  you get the gist. 22 to 24 teams if you include the kickers and punters all made up with players from the same position.

We can sponsor a full tackle football tournament, all teams play until one position group team comes out a winner.  Which position group team wins??

I've put some thought into this, and I'm convinced that outside linebackers would win.  I think they would be able to overpower/out-physical all the skill positions up to and including TEs, and would be able to outrun/outskill MLBs and interior linemen without getting beaten up too badly.  I'm guessing that there is an OLB or two in the CAC that played some HS QB to provide skill and stretch the field.  They would be running by the OL all day in the secondary, and I believe that by stacking the box they could stop the power running game from such squads. 

OH MAN, we need some new games to discuss.... 

[Jonny Utah]

Google PICTURE of a FOOTBALL player. 

see what ya get. 

Grabowski, on my lame computer the search gave me several hundreds of images.   Only 1 pic could I find that was resembling a PK.  There weren't any Punters or LongSnappers (they kinda go together).

Now, not to be accused of being a contrarian.  Or, as one inboxer continues to accuse me of incredible "hyperbole", let's just stick to basic priniciples of what we learned in STATISTICS class?

In most, scientific experiments, they have that standard deviation right?  plus or minus..........blah blah blah gives you that statistical significance right?  or, something like that.

let's make it even simpler.  why?  remember that 1 drop of blood definition?  do you know how many people in this country actually have that 1 drop yet will defiantly declare until DEATH that they are not that drop of "blood" deemed to be negative while they cling to the better representation.  LOL.

So, back to the images.  I probably counted over 500 images when I googled "picture of a Football Player".  If more than 10% of those pictures are those of somebody kicking a gridiron football then I will rest my case.

But, if I only see 1 picture/image out of a 1000, I will just put that in the deviation that isn't relevant category.

SPECIALIST


ps polar cat , lumber cat, utes, etc.    NICE TRY (again) but, from the great movie  A FEW GOOD MEN......... "You can't handle the Truth"


Dodgers getting whipped.

Hamilton 24 Colby 14

Amherst will beat Wesleyan as their seniors try to finish with 5 consecutive wins.  Would be a great finish for their group.  30-2?  But, it's going to be super tough..........Wesleyan, Tufts, Trinity and then Williams.

No, you said they weren't football players, that's what people are arguing with you about. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

I think westcoast dad has covered every single type of fallacy now in this argument. 

I googled the same thing and didn't see any Seattle Seahawks there.  Therefore, people who play for the Seahawks are not football players.

[Jonny Utah]

After the NESCAC season, lets split up all the players from all schools  by position.  All centers on one team, all guards, all tackles, TE, WR, RB, SS, FS, CBs, LB, etc etc.  you get the gist. 22 to 24 teams if you include the kickers and punters all made up with players from the same position.

We can sponsor a full tackle football tournament, all teams play until one position group team comes out a winner.  Which position group team wins??

I've put some thought into this, and I'm convinced that outside linebackers would win.  I think they would be able to overpower/out-physical all the skill positions up to and including TEs, and would be able to outrun/outskill MLBs and interior linemen without getting beaten up too badly.  I'm guessing that there is an OLB or two in the CAC that played some HS QB to provide skill and stretch the field.  They would be running by the OL all day in the secondary, and I believe that by stacking the box they could stop the power running game from such squads. 

OH MAN, we need some new games to discuss....

I think the TE's would win, because you would have a wide variety of size, speed, skill, and probably a few quarterbacks in there.

[middhoops]

A potentially epic (by 2016 NESCAC standards) Amherst at Wesleyan game and we have 25+ posts in a circular conversation about an imaginary non-issue?  We used to be better than that.
The Amherst team we saw in Middlebury was a truly outstanding team.  Their defense is fast to the ball, Morales is sippery and accurate and they kick NFL field goals. 
A long kickoff return and a key turnover prevented them from winning their 22nd in a row.  I was greatly pleased with the result but didn't leave the game necessarily thinking the better team won.
Teams without a QB named Lebowitz have 10 points against Amherst in 3 games.
Maybe Wesleyan is a great team with an early season (respectable) loss.  I don't know.  But until I see that the Cardinals are just that, Amherst looks like a touchdown favorite to me. 
Just an uninformed hunch/feeling, but I don't see an EJ Mills team losing another very close game this season.  So Wes and Trin better play very, very well as they get their shots.

Weather is going to be atrocious in Vermont tomorrow.  No Mud Bowl alas.  Just soaked fake dirt and plastic grass.  And maybe a few fumbles.
Good luck to all.  Players to stay healthy and fans to stay dry.

[gridiron]

Amherst QB will not be Berluti this week. Will make no difference in outcome.

[RetiredMule]

Dodgers getting whipped.

Hamilton 24 Colby 14

No, you said they weren't football players, that's what people are arguing with you about. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

I think westcoast dad has covered every single type of fallacy now in this argument. 

I googled the same thing and didn't see any Seattle Seahawks there.  Therefore, people who play for the Seahawks are not football players.

WCD - now was that pick made with impartiality or were you letting some emotions skew your view of the game. "Yeah. I'll pick against Colby. That will show the poster who called for the head coach's firing for two straight seasons.

Utes - thank you for bringing up the issue of fallacious arguments. I have pointed this out in more private places, but he tended not to agree.

[IslandTime]

Amherst QB will not be Berluti this week. Will make no difference in outcome.

That is good news in my opinion as it would be a mistake to rush him back with how good Morales is playing. Hoping Coach Mills and Ballard open up and let him run a little more. Having that QB run option is vital to beating good defenses. It's why Foy was so hard to contain.

Middlebury figured out in second half he wasn't going to take off with the ball and started sending really effective blitzes at him.

Go Amherst!!!!

[westcoastDad]

Retired Mule ....emotions? 

I clearly supported my thoughts.  Wesleyan will be the first team we have faced with a legit running game.  How is that comment construed as an emotion? That's fact. 
Amherst hasn't beaten any team with a winning record.  That isaid fact.

We r playing on the road against a good team that is well coached.  Again fact.

You guys are a trip man.  Just focus on the words and leave the psychological interrogations to my shrink.

We (Amherst) have our hands full tomorrow.  We need to play well in all facets.....including our special teams play which really let us down against Midd.

[westcoastDad]

Last year's QB ran much on instinct Island Time.  I don't think they drew up most of his scrambles.  Morales is going to have to use his own instincts to decide when to take off and also to SLIDE.   

[lumbercat]

 author=Nescacman link=topic=4146.msg1761494#msg1761494 date=1477020877]
2016 Week #5 NESCAC Preview

Disclaimer: This post may contain some humor, sarcasm and views that some (particularly Williams fans) may find offensive, rude and off-putting. If you are someone that is easily offended, please move on to other posts. This will be your only warning! Continue at your own risk.

Welcome to Week 5 in the NESCAC..."the league where they pay to play". We were 4-1 in week 4, only losing the game that no one (or very few of us) care about it. Another bad schedule this week with only one game of consequence on the menu. Weather will be a big factor throughout the league.

Hamilton College at Colby College: Another bad match-up of 2 the worst teams in the league. The only thing that this game will win is the longest drive of the week (7 hours). Needless to say, we don't expect many Cont students to be making the trip to Waterville. Coach Michaeles has given the Mules the last 3 weeks off. Perhaps he'll change the schedule this week?!? Why Hamilton will win: The Conts and Mules have played similar competition but Hamilton has played them slightly closer, the Conts have a better offense and defense than the Mules, the Conts are better coached (that's for you AU Pep), and we will go with the hot hand in Conts QB Kenny Gray. The Conts are last in the league in turnover ratio and need to hold on to the "Duke" to win.
Hamilton 17 Colby 14
Weather: Showers, high 65.

Hartford State College at Bowdoin College: The best in the NESCAC against the worst. Unless the HS bus breaks down, the JV gets lots of work in this one. Last patsy for HS before they play some real competition over the last 3 weeks (MID, FKA LJs, WES). Why Hartford State will win: No need to answer this.
Hartford State 41 Bowdoin 7
Weather: Showers, high 66.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Middlebury College: Which UB shows up? The UB that looked decent two weeks ago or the UB team that looked awful last week against Wes. The Pants can be scored on, but unfortunately, UB is offensively challenged. Although UB is decent against the pass, they have not faced the likes of "The Gambler". Why Middlebury will win: They are home, they have a much better QB than UB and they can put up a ton of points. Weather will keep the Pants from going nuts through the air.
Middlebury 35 UBates 14
Weather: Rain, neigh of 50.

Williams College at Tufts University: Another "L" for the Ephs. We expect RB Brady to have a big week for the Jumbo's against a weak Williams run defense. This game should give the Tufts moms an opportunity to spend plenty of time at the tailgate drinking wine, like they should be. Why Tufts will win: The Ephs will be looking ahead to a week 6 showdown against Hamilton.
Tufts 28 Williams 17
Weather: Showers and windy. High 63.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Amherst College at Wesleyan University: Big question for the team formerly known as the Lord Jeff's is who is going to QB this Saturday. In case Wes Coach DiCenzo is reading our blog word out of Amherst camp is that Berlutti was fitted with a leg brace last weekend and was going to give it go at practice this week. We think Amherst is probably better off with a fairly immobile QB in Morales, who can throw the ball downfield vs a hobbled Berlutti who is not nearly adept at passing the ball. Wes has been on a roll and has looked very good the last 3 weeks. These teams are very evenly matched and are both very well coached. Why Wesleyan will win: Weather will be a factor and Wesleyan runs the ball better than Amherst does. However, we expect it to be a very close game that could come down to a FG in the last few minutes. We give the home field the edge.
Wesleyan 24 Amherst 23
Weather: Showers. High 58.

NESCACMAN's Picks
2016 Season: 17-3
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 109-31 (.779 winning percentage)
[/quote]






Nescacman

Another entertaining preview good reading as usual.

Now lets drill down on your picks against the spread. Below are this weeks point spreads posted early in the week by Grabowski.

Ham -7 Colby
Trinity -17 Bowdoin
Midd -21 Bates
Amherst -11 Wesleyan
Tufts -14 Williams

So NESCACMAN's picks are:

Colby +7
Trinity -17
Wesleyan +11
Williams +14

As for the Middlebury/ Bates game I guess you are predicting a push.
But for the most part I agree with your picks except the Williams pick- I'll take Tufts.