FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[maineman]

Williams at Midd could be a trap game for the Panthers.  If they look ahead to the following week against Trinity, they may allow the upstart Williams team to pull the upset.  If Midd loses the turnover battle and gives Williams some short fields they will be playing into the Ephs hands.  As the underdog, Williams will be playing with few expectations and little pressure.  They have a QB that can run an effective offense and if given favorable field possession can keep the game competitive.  Even bad Eph teams give Midd trouble, like the 2014 OT game that the Panthers dodged a bullet on.  If the Ephs win, the appetite for the following weeks Midd-Trinity tilt will be far less inviting.

[nescac1]

NescacMan, it's misleading to say that 75 percent of Williams' starters were 0-8 a year ago.  Most of this year's starters either weren't on the roster, or were frosh who barely played.  If you look at the LISTED starters for last year's Amherst game vs. the LISTED starters for every game this season, there are actually ZERO returning starters on offense and only six on defense, so that would be only 6 out of 24 returning starters, or only 25 percent.  Now, those listed starters are not always accurate.  For some reason I can't fathom, TJ Dozier is listed as the starting TB rather than Connor Harris; I'm not counting him.  In addition to Harris, I'm adding in one returning starter to the offensive line (Subjinsky) and one more to the secondary (Butler).  That brings us up to 13/24 = 9 returning starters, or 38 percent.  I don't think you can judge this year's team by last year, rather than by THIS year, when there has been such dramatic turnover at every spot save for the defensive line. 

And that actually understates just how different this year's squad is from last year's.  100 percent of the passing yardage, and roughly 80 percent of the receiving yardage, comes from different sources (all frosh).  About 35 percent of the rushing yards as well (and of course, the offensive line is dramatically reshaped with four at least part-time starters from last year no longer on the roster).  Three of the four INTs come from frosh.  The two leading tacklers, by far, are frosh and the third-leading tackler only played in a few games last year as a first-year.  Really, the only unit that looks even remotely the same is the DL, and those guys are, simply, playing a lot better this season as they have all matured into their roles.  I'm not trying to "hype" Williams.  I think everyone here (at least those in any way affiliated with Williams) who has discussed Williams has been realistic about the team's chances from the start of the season, and frankly surprised at how well they have performed so far given the state of the roster.  There was no guarantee they would win ANY games this season, even against other squads in the lower half of the league. 

How well Williams will do the rest of the way remains to be seen.  It's certainly possible that the Ephs go 0-5 the rest of the way.  Going from 0-8 to 3-6 would be, frankly, pretty darn good for a one-season improvement.  As we've often discussed, turning around a program in NESCAC doesn't happen overnight.  But going 2-3 wouldn't stun me either. Such an inexperienced squad has already exceeded any remotely reasonable expectations.  Although I do think that, even if you discount three convincing wins over struggling teams (which still count as wins -- and those are games the Ephs lost last year!) staying within one score, and shutting down the offense for most of the game, of mighty Trinity on the road, despite a few bad breaks, is impressive.  Turnovers killed the Ephs in that game, too often they gave Trinity a short field, but they showed they could go toe-to-toe with the far deeper and more experienced Bantams through much of the game, which is not something ANYONE could have predicted.   

As for this week, the game preview has Banky and Martinez both playing for Midd, which would be trouble, although again those previews aren't always terribly reliable.  I wouldn't rely on the Williams' listed starters either.  In all events, Williams has not faced a passing game REMOTELY as capable as Midd's this year (and that includes Trinity), and it will be a massive challenge for the young Eph secondary and LB corps.  To have any sort of chance, the front four, especially DeMarco and Thomas, have to get some serious pressure on the QB and ideally some sacks, because Williams has had some breakdowns in coverage this year vs. passing attacks far less impressive than Midd's. 

[ColbyFootball]

Williams at Midd could be a trap game for the Panthers.  If they look ahead to the following week against Trinity, they may allow the upstart Williams team to pull the upset.  If Midd loses the turnover battle and gives Williams some short fields they will be playing into the Ephs hands.  As the underdog, Williams will be playing with few expectations and little pressure.  They have a QB that can run an effective offense and if given favorable field possession can keep the game competitive.  Even bad Eph teams give Midd trouble, like the 2014 OT game that the Panthers dodged a bullet on.  If the Ephs win, the appetite for the following weeks Midd-Trinity tilt will be far less inviting.

Love your thoughts on this game.

[PolarCat]

You make some good points, but they have some decent, even explosive, skill players. They are not using them..... As for the QB lacking arm strength as you suggest, Colby's played 4 games without any success, and the team has two other QBs, Sparacio a senior, and Kraft a junior and Dartmouth transfer, that they can look to yet they have not.

Shameless.

[Jonny Utah]

You make some good points, but they have some decent, even explosive, skill players. They are not using them..... As for the QB lacking arm strength as you suggest, Colby's played 4 games without any success, and the team has two other QBs, Sparacio a senior, and Kraft a junior and Dartmouth transfer, that they can look to yet they have not.

Shameless.

Say it Polarcat.  I was thinking the same.  What do you know......?

[ColbyFootball]

[/quote]

Say it Polarcat.  I was thinking the same.  What do you know......?
[/quote]
I modified my post, because although it was responding to nescacman, it was not articulated well. So, I understand your objection, and it is well taken.

[middpantherpride]

Williams at Midd could be a trap game for the Panthers.  If they look ahead to the following week against Trinity, they may allow the upstart Williams team to pull the upset.  If Midd loses the turnover battle and gives Williams some short fields they will be playing into the Ephs hands.  As the underdog, Williams will be playing with few expectations and little pressure.  They have a QB that can run an effective offense and if given favorable field possession can keep the game competitive.  Even bad Eph teams give Midd trouble, like the 2014 OT game that the Panthers dodged a bullet on.  If the Ephs win, the appetite for the following weeks Midd-Trinity tilt will be far less inviting.
[/quote]
Love your thoughts on this game.
[/quote]

Maineman... I agree. This game is huge for Midd. After the miscues on defense in the second half v Amherst, they will need to improve to keep Williams from knocking them off at home.

ColbyFootball... Have you removed the "not too good" tag on Midd?? Who do they have to beat to remove that tag??

[ColbyFootball]

Williams at Midd could be a trap game for the Panthers.  If they look ahead to the following week against Trinity, they may allow the upstart Williams team to pull the upset.  If Midd loses the turnover battle and gives Williams some short fields they will be playing into the Ephs hands.  As the underdog, Williams will be playing with few expectations and little pressure.  They have a QB that can run an effective offense and if given favorable field possession can keep the game competitive.  Even bad Eph teams give Midd trouble, like the 2014 OT game that the Panthers dodged a bullet on.  If the Ephs win, the appetite for the following weeks Midd-Trinity tilt will be far less inviting.

Love your thoughts on this game.
[/quote]

Maineman... I agree. This game is huge for Midd. After the miscues on defense in the second half v Amherst, they will need to improve to keep Williams from knocking them off at home.

ColbyFootball... Have you removed the "not too good" tag on Midd?? Who do they have to beat to remove that tag??
[/quote] I have not removed it. But I have added it to my ever increasing list of errors. They showed me something against Amherst this past week. They are better than I thought, which is good because I like Ritter and Caputi. So you were right. I was wrong.

[maineman]

Maineman... I agree. This game is huge for Midd. After the miscues on defense in the second half v Amherst, they will need to improve to keep Williams from knocking them off at home.

The presence or absence of Martinez, Fahey, Meritus and Banky in the lineup could play a large role in the outcome, too!

[westcoastDad]

and their all nescac running back.  the Midds are the hunted now.  gotta stay healthy!

[amh63]

There is a trend of thoughts that puzzle me in posts of upcoming games and a few past games.  The mention of missing and injured players.  Yes, good players that are injured in games impact games. However, that is the nature of team sports...emphasis on TEAM.  Injuries provide challenges for the coaches during and after the games.  It impacts game plans, recruiting as well as practices, etc., etc., IMO. 
Where am I going?  In games played....what is the point of comments about outcomes if an injured player was in a game?  For future games, projection of outcomes if an injured player returns is just a whistful mind game.  It is to be noted that in the hours before the Amh-Midd game, Amherst did post a game preview...but I could not find one on the Midd website.  Mind games or maybe a "new" SOP for football games.
I'm going to become more like WCD...an armchair version.  Just sit back and see what the future games bring.  If indeed the winter is a mild one....might even make plans to go to Willytown.  Hear that they make good pizza there....HFC Mills mentioned it, I remembered.
Oh yes, Wife will not let me drive in heavy Winter conditions these days .

[middpantherpride]

Amh63... I'm a little confused by your last post. I understand it is a team sport, but injuries are part of the discussion anytime a team plays another without a big piece of their team. The same is true with suspensions. For instance, the Indy Colts are still talked about in regards to them playing without Luck. When Brady didn't play the first 4 games last season for the Pats, the expectations were much lower. When Edelman went down, I heard a lot of Pats fans say that if they had Edelman, Brady would have had a much better game against the Chiefs in week 1 because of the fact of their chemistry. I guess my point is, why would you not consider missing pieces, especially if the replacement does not perform to the same standard/ the chemistry/ experience is not the same??

[PolarCat]

amh63, why drive?  Pittsfield Municipal Airport has a 5,800 foot runway; that might not be long enough for your Gulfstream 650, but it would be a piece of cake for your King Air.

The injury issue ties into two of my recurrent themes: the widening gulf between the haves and have nots (sort of like the disappearing US middle class), and the imbalanced schedule.

The "haves" (Trinity, Amherst, Wes, Midd, Tufts, Williams) are able to attract more good players.  The coaching, facilities, and program budget allow them to start camp with up to 100 players, and cut to get to the 76 man roster.  When a key contributor goes down, they ave someone almost as good - maybe even better - waiting for their chance.  (WCD won't brag on his kid, but he falls squarely into that maybe-even-better category).  When the "have-nots" with their thin rosters lose an impact player (like the Bates DB who went down in pre-season), they are well and truly screwed.

And the have-nots who start with a brutal schedule are even worse off.  Let's compare Trinity to Bates.  Trinity opened with Colby > Bates > Williams.  I doubt the Bants starters played more than 3 quarters in any of those games, so they had a reduced risk of injury, and the second team got valuable playing time.  Meanwhile, Bates opened with Amherst > Trinity > Tufts.  The 'Cats don't have that depth of talent to replace the starters who got injured (including QB1 and their captain and best RB).

Winning begets winning, and the gulf is widening.  My kid's senior year feels a lot different from his first year, when Tufts, Bates and Hamilton were all threatening to break out of the lower division (and the Jumbos succeeded).  Yes, Raymond has righted the Kelton shipwreck, but the other second-tier teams have difficulty finding a bright spot.

[NESCAC.Football.Observer]

The "haves" (Trinity, Amherst, Wes, Midd, Tufts, Williams) are able to attract more good players.  The coaching, facilities, and program budget allow them to start camp with up to 100 players, and cut to get to the 76 man roster. 

FYI re the above that Williams started preseason with 66 kids, half a dozen left, and they have about 56 to 58 kids dressing... as that's the whole team. 

They don't have the luxury of "depth"..... which is what the "100 to 76" (I thought it 75) allows you to do.

FYI.

[PolarCat]

My thoughts on Coach Raymond are well known.  And set one foot on the campus, and the school's commitment to the program is evident.  Plus they have the secret weapon, the Moo Cow Marching Band.

That said, I didn't realize their roster was that small.  Will likely prove a big challenge by the time their Wes and Amherst games roll around.  But somehow, I am pretty confident Raymond will have at least 80 kids in camp next September.  The chance to be a part of the rebuilding of a legendary program, the opportunity to compete for a start as a FY, pretty heady stuff.