FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

2017 Week #7 NESCACMAN Preview

Welcome to Week 7 in the NESCAC..."the league where they pay to play". Last week we went 4-1, we are 25-5 for the season and are 149-41 for our career picking NESCAC games. We were 1:30 away from going 5-0 in week 6 as the Lord Mammoths snatched a win from the jaws of defeat beating Wesleyan in our GOTW. Week 7 features in the NESCAC GOTW our #1 and #3 ranked Teams, Middlebury and Hartford State. Williams/Tufts is another interesting game on the schedule. Should be a tough week for the home teams as Williams is the only home team that should win. Looks to be a great fall weekend in New England so get out there and support your favorite University, College and State School!

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Colby College: Despite Colby having home field in the C-B-B opener, we are going with the Bobcats in this one. Bates hasn't given up less than 37 points in game (albeit, all of their games thus far were against the top 6 Teams in the league). The good news for them is Colby does not score, except for their offensive outburst last week against Hamilton. We think the dual threat of Bates QB Costa will be too much for the Mules plus we are not a fan of Colby QB O'Brien. Based on history, we think last week was a fluke.

University of Bates 24 Colby 17
Weather: Not a factor. High around 62.

Wesleyan University at Bowdoin College: The key for Wesleyan is to not look past this game as they head into their last two weeks against rivals Williams and Hartford State. Wes' offense is very good and playing against the worst defense in the NESCAC in yards per game is not good for the PBers. That will give them an opportunity to tune it up for the home stretch. Look for the Wes passing attack to have a big game. Bowdoin's only shot is to run the ball effectively, control the clock and keep the Wes offense off the field. Good luck.

Wesleyan 45 Bowdoin 14
Weather: Not a factor. High around 62.

Amhurst College at Tufts University: The difference here is the defenses. The Lord Mammoths are the best in the league in terms of YPG and Tufts is a very middle of the road sixth. Tufts will have a hard time running the ball against Amhurst and McDonald will have to have a big game in the air. Both Teams get to the QB a lot so keeping pressure off the QB will be key. Look for Amhurst's #2 ranked rushing attack to be the difference here.

Amhurst 27 Tufts 17
Weather: Not a factor. High around 67.

Hamilton College at Williams: Williams has played good defense all year and that will the difference as they clinch their first winning season in 5 years at the friendly confines of Farley-Lamb Field. Hamilton's passing attack could make this interesting.

Williams 27 Hamilton 14
Weather: Not a factor. High around 67.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Hartford State College at Middlebury College: HS has the #1 offense in the league and the #2 defense in terms of YPG. MID is #2 in offense and #5 in defense. That's the difference in this one. Obviously, we all know about the MID passing attack, but HS defends the pass very well (#1 in the league) and is also #1 in interceptions. If Lebowitz plays, this could be a close one. If not, it won't be.

Hartford State 31 Middlebury 28
Weather: Not a factor. High around 67.

NESCACMAN's Picks
2017 Season: 25-5
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 149-41 (.784 winning percentage)

[Nescacman]

Beautiful day for football here in Middlebury for our GOTW. Looks like it will be a big crowd. Lots of 'Staters made the trip from the Southside of picturesque Hartford, CT to root on the Bants. The Middlebury tailgate patrol is in rare form today. Word is there was an incident a few years ago involving some parents from both of our combatants today that caused Middlebury to clamp down on all tailgates going forward. Too bad...

Enjoy your games today in "The league where they pay to play"!

[middhoops]

Meservy at QB for Midd today.

[warriorcat]

Bates hangs on for a 27-24 win at Colby. In the driver's seat for the C-B-B title.

[JEFFFAN]

Tough win for the Jeffs against a more-than-game Tufts team, 31-26.   Jeffs with close to 500 yards offense today including a number of long passes, something new to their game.   Defense was tested by a good Tufts offense, however, with the Jumbos getting an onsides kick and a chance with about a minute left.   Miscommunications between the Tufts QB and receiver resulted in an interception and game over.     Eberth looked terrific.

Amherst hosts Trinity with a chance to tie for the NESCAC lead going into the final game of the year.

[Nescacman]

If Lebowitz plays, this could be a close one. If not, it won't be.

We would say this was quite prophetic, if we didn't say so ourselves....

BTW, we knew Lebowitz wasn't going to play today but our sources asked us to keep that to ourselves...

Too bad he didn't play...would have made this an interesting game...

[ColbyFootball]

Colby loses yet again. Another feather in Michaeles'' cap. I know it's the players.

[westcoastDad]

The backups for Midd have been touted to be high scaliber.

Even Reece Foy had a great 2 min drill today for the Lord Mammoths.  Great to see!

Trinity coming to the Mammoths Den for all the marbles.....talking rights

[FanOfNescac]

The backups for Midd have been touted to be high scaliber.

Even Reece Foy had a great 2 min drill today for the Lord Mammoths

Trinity coming to the Mammoths Den for all the marbles.....talking rights

Of course, WCD, but they are backups for a reason

[PolarCat]

Colby loses yet again. Another feather in Michaeles'' cap. I know it's the players.

I was at the game, and I thought the Mules play calling was quite good.  Too many overthrown / dropped passes and too many missed opportunities.  Some really sloppy special teams play, including a couple of snaps that Baron miraculously fielded on the bounce and still managed to get decent punts away.  The game featured two very good kickers on teams that don't give them enough opportunities to shine, but if Bates won the kicking game today it was because of the snaps and the holds.

I just don't see any way a Colby parent can hang this on the coaches.  The Mule players didn't step up and make the plays when they needed to. It looks like it was just that type of year for the Blue and Gray.

PS: I know it's extraordinarily ungracious of me, but I am thrilled that I  will never, ever have to "watch" a game from the visitors stands on Mayflower Hill again.  Far and away the worst venue in the CAC if you're a visiting fan.  A public service announcement for underclass parents: When your son plays at Colby, do yourself a huge favor and bring along one of these:

[nescac1]

Congrats to the Ephs on securing a winning season!  I don't think ANYONE could have predicted five wins (and maybe more, let's hope!) for this squad.  Heck of a job by Raymond.  If Trinity goes 9-0, Devaney will deservedly win coach of the year, but man, Raymond sure is deserving for the unreal job he has done, even if the Ephs merely finish 5-4.  What a fun year and a bright future for the team ...

Williams played its best half of the season vs. Hamilton in going up 24-0.  In the second half, the Ephs were (smartly) conservative and also made some mistakes, but overall, a great performance.  Maimaron was brilliant executing the offense in the first half, especially on the ground, where Hamilton had no answer to him.  The Ephs used all their weapons with a wide variety of creative play-calling.  The Ephs use the same personnel on probably 80-90 percent of their offensive plays: three WRs, one TE, and one TB.  That enables them to run a very fast offense, with very few substitutions, wearing a defense down over long drives and at times catching them off guard with quick snaps.  But what's impressive is just how many different plays and formations they run out of their base personnel set, with loads of shifting pre-snap, fly sweeps from the WRs, lining the TE up wide, using the TB as a receiver out of the backfield, a QB who can drop by or run the option, etc. etc.  Night and day from the prior era of WR screen after WR screen.   On way play, they even ran a double reverse to tight end Burke, now that is a BALLSY call as a big lumbering dude could easily be brought down for a 10-yard loss on a slow-developing play, but it went for a 13-yard gain. 

Williams isn't going to dominate teams via sheer size or strength.  Nor do they have one one weapon who by himself can torch a defense.  But they have a lot of different guys who can make plays and who play to their strengths, and the defense is always off-balance.  Yesterday it was Justin Nelson's turn, he seems 100 percent recovered from an injury that kept him out a few weeks which is big for Williams.  He seems to me to be the shiftiest Eph receiver in terms of getting open in space.  Frosh RB TJ Dozier also played his best game of the year and has the look of a workhorse, hard physical running back going forward.   It all starts with Maimaron's poise and command of the field.  You can tell his guys have full confidence in him even after he makes a bad play (and of course, he still makes the occasional poor decision leading to picks or near-picks, but far fewer than almost any other frosh would, he will continue to improve), and his ability to run for big gains or complete passes while on the run just puts SO much pressure on the offense.

The defense was, of course, better than the offense vs. Hamilton.  After two weeks when opposing QBs had far too much time to operate, the Ephs put a ton of heat on Gray all day long.  It helped that Jarrett Wesner, one of the Ephs' two best pass-rushers, was back in the lineup and once again spent a fair amount of time in the opposing backfield.  He's been overshadowed a bit by fellow frosh LB and tackling machine TJ Rothman but he's been stellar all year.  The Ephs have a heck of a lot of speed in their front seven and use it well.  Just a dominating performance from the D to hold Hamilton to six points, especially because they were put in bad position several times following three Williams TOs and an onside-kick recovered by Hamilton.

One thing I do NOT want to see again from Williams -- they tried not one but two fake field goal attempts, and both plays misfired badly.  I think that one, they can leave in the playbook in Little 3 action, either punt the ball (and Regensburg had a heck of a day punting the ball -- he is having an all-NESCAC year as a punter) and try to pin the offense back, or just trust in Maimaron who has proven to be very dangerous on even 3rd or 4th and long.  I'd rather see him throwing the ball than the kicker, certainly!  Speaking of Little 3, it's really exciting to see the Ephs at least have a fighting chance the next two weeks.  There is no doubt that Williams is an underdog vs. Wesleyan and probably a big underdog vs. Amherst, but no one would be shocked if they come out with a victory in either game, I imagine.  That speaks volumes of how much the team has grown over the course of the year.  To be competitive vs. Wesleyan, they need to limit penalties, which have been an issue in recent weeks, avoid turnovers (ditto), and find some way to keep Breuler in check -- no one has been able to stop him, but you can't let him have one of those 180 yard, 3 td type games. 

As for Hamilton, while they had a rough day vs. Williams and missed some opportunities, the future is definitely bright.  I think only one senior saw any meaningful action vs. the Ephs.  They should be much better next year and better still the following year. 

Bummer for Midd about the QB being hurt.  I think we can put to rest the speculation that Lebowitz is just a system guy or that is backups are better.  He is a legit superstar and I hope he can return for his last few games.  Trinity-Amherst should be a barnburner.  Clearly the two teams playing the best football in the league right now.  Williams, Wesleyan, Tufts and Midd appear to be closely grouped behind them, but those two are the clear class of NESCAC this season. 

[Nescacman]

Colby loses yet again. Another feather in Michaeles'' cap. I know it's the players.

I was at the game, and I thought the Mules play calling was quite good.  Too many overthrown / dropped passes and too many missed opportunities.  Some really sloppy special teams play, including a couple of snaps that Baron miraculously fielded on the bounce and still managed to get decent punts away.  The game featured two very good kickers on teams that don't give them enough opportunities to shine, but if Bates won the kicking game today it was because of the snaps and the holds.

I just don't see any way a Colby parent can hang this on the coaches.  The Mule players didn't step up and make the plays when they needed to. It looks like it was just that type of year for the Blue and Gray.

Uh oh....here we go again....

[Nescacman]

Congrats to the Ephs on securing a winning season!  I don't think ANYONE could have predicted five wins (and maybe more, let's hope!) for this squad.  Heck of a job by Raymond.  If Trinity goes 9-0, Devaney will deservedly win coach of the year, but man, Raymond sure is deserving for the unreal job he has done, even if the Ephs merely finish 5-4.  What a fun year and a bright future for the team ...

Williams played its best half of the season vs. Hamilton in going up 24-0.  In the second half, the Ephs were (smartly) conservative and also made some mistakes, but overall, a great performance.  Maimaron was brilliant executing the offense in the first half, especially on the ground, where Hamilton had no answer to him.  The Ephs used all their weapons with a wide variety of creative play-calling.  The Ephs use the same personnel on probably 80-90 percent of their offensive plays: three WRs, one TE, and one TB.  That enables them to run a very fast offense, with very few substitutions, wearing a defense down over long drives and at times catching them off guard with quick snaps.  But what's impressive is just how many different plays and formations they run out of their base personnel set, with loads of shifting pre-snap, fly sweeps from the WRs, lining the TE up wide, using the TB as a receiver out of the backfield, a QB who can drop by or run the option, etc. etc.  Night and day from the prior era of WR screen after WR screen.   On way play, they even ran a double reverse to tight end Burke, now that is a BALLSY call as a big lumbering dude could easily be brought down for a 10-yard loss on a slow-developing play, but it went for a 13-yard gain. 

Williams isn't going to dominate teams via sheer size or strength.  Nor do they have one one weapon who by himself can torch a defense.  But they have a lot of different guys who can make plays and who play to their strengths, and the defense is always off-balance.  Yesterday it was Justin Nelson's turn, he seems 100 percent recovered from an injury that kept him out a few weeks which is big for Williams.  He seems to me to be the shiftiest Eph receiver in terms of getting open in space.  Frosh RB TJ Dozier also played his best game of the year and has the look of a workhorse, hard physical running back going forward.   It all starts with Maimaron's poise and command of the field.  You can tell his guys have full confidence in him even after he makes a bad play (and of course, he still makes the occasional poor decision leading to picks or near-picks, but far fewer than almost any other frosh would, he will continue to improve), and his ability to run for big gains or complete passes while on the run just puts SO much pressure on the offense.

The defense was, of course, better than the offense vs. Hamilton.  After two weeks when opposing QBs had far too much time to operate, the Ephs put a ton of heat on Gray all day long.  It helped that Jarrett Wesner, one of the Ephs' two best pass-rushers, was back in the lineup and once again spent a fair amount of time in the opposing backfield.  He's been overshadowed a bit by fellow frosh LB and tackling machine TJ Rothman but he's been stellar all year.  The Ephs have a heck of a lot of speed in their front seven and use it well.  Just a dominating performance from the D to hold Hamilton to six points, especially because they were put in bad position several times following three Williams TOs and an onside-kick recovered by Hamilton.

One thing I do NOT want to see again from Williams -- they tried not one but two fake field goal attempts, and both plays misfired badly.  I think that one, they can leave in the playbook in Little 3 action, either punt the ball (and Regensburg had a heck of a day punting the ball -- he is having an all-NESCAC year as a punter) and try to pin the offense back, or just trust in Maimaron who has proven to be very dangerous on even 3rd or 4th and long.  I'd rather see him throwing the ball than the kicker, certainly!  Speaking of Little 3, it's really exciting to see the Ephs at least have a fighting chance the next two weeks.  There is no doubt that Williams is an underdog vs. Wesleyan and probably a big underdog vs. Amherst, but no one would be shocked if they come out with a victory in either game, I imagine.  That speaks volumes of how much the team has grown over the course of the year.  To be competitive vs. Wesleyan, they need to limit penalties, which have been an issue in recent weeks, avoid turnovers (ditto), and find some way to keep Breuler in check -- no one has been able to stop him, but you can't let him have one of those 180 yard, 3 td type games. 

As for Hamilton, while they had a rough day vs. Williams and missed some opportunities, the future is definitely bright.  I think only one senior saw any meaningful action vs. the Ephs.  They should be much better next year and better still the following year. 

Bummer for Midd about the QB being hurt.  I think we can put to rest the speculation that Lebowitz is just a system guy or that is backups are better.  He is a legit superstar and I hope he can return for his last few games.  Trinity-Amherst should be a barnburner.  Clearly the two teams playing the best football in the league right now.  Williams, Wesleyan, Tufts and Midd appear to be closely grouped behind them, but those two are the clear class of NESCAC this season.

Nescac1....we have had our friendly differences in the past (and good discussions off the "Board"), but congrats are in order to "The Team from Up North" ("TTUN")...they will have their hands full the next two weeks against Wes and the Lord Mammoths but at this point they are playing with house money. Clearly, like the Baby Bombers of New York, TTUN is a year ahead of schedule. Nice work by Coach Raymond doing another rebuild and moving the Ephs past the debacle that was the HCOF era. 

[amh63]

Thought, I add my two bits wrt the Tufts-Amherst game that I watched online.
First, the broadcasters were cheerful and good...seems some were being trained.  There were problems with the repetitive sections of the broadcast.  No replays otherwise.
Looking at the stats, Amherst led in most of them.  Seems Amherst's QB had more passing yards but Tufts runners had more yardage on the ground...including Tufts' Fine QB.  If you add the yardage the Tufts QB ran in the backfield to by time and avoid Amherst players, the Tufts run yardage would be HUGE.  Boy it is tough to guard the WRs with an elusive QB.  Near the end of the game...when Tufts recovered the onside kickoff, I thought Tufts' QB was limping a little.  It may have impacted his last throw...an Amherst interception!...with 1:11 to go in the game.  Wow...when Amherst dominated the first half with the games's first 4 TDs.
Crowd listed at around 2400...with a good crowd of about 300 plus in the visitors' stands.
Amherst's Homecoming attendance was given just under 8000.  I really cannot figure out how attendance numbers are estimated with no tickets are sold, etc. 
oops...Amherst scored the first TWO TDs and 28 points in the first half.  Memory becoming more selective these days .

[PolarCat]

Amh63, they use a logrythm that monitors the number of urinal flushes and the bags of apples sold at Atkins Farm to estomate attendance.