FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[maineman]

Would have been surprised and disappointed if Nescacman would have picked Midd over Wes.  Could be 2-4 on his Midd picks for the year!

Is there any more news on the injured Panthers?  Will they be available tomorrow?

[MidDay]

They've all been practicing this week.

[SpringSt7]

http://nothingbutnescac.com/?p=7804

NbN's Midd/Wes preview notes that Cosolito and Maldjian should be back, with no word on Woodring. Sounds like MidDay has the scoop as well.

As for the game itself, I really have no idea. It feels like Middlebury is beyond due for a loss, they keep winning games that on paper they should not be winning--outgained by Trinity and Williams, 6 turnovers against Amherst, and the well documented nail biter against Colby. But at the same time, there is something to be said for that. Jernigan just has a knack for the big play in the big moment, a swagger that no one else seems to have an answer for. Wesleyan is definitely an interesting stylistic matchup--the turnover numbers as compared to Midd's are especially eye-popping. I just don't think a 20-13 win over a pretty average Tufts team, that outplayed them for the majority of the game, all of a sudden answers any questions about them as a football team. Feel like you have to lean Middlebury.

[Nescacman]

Wonder why the transfer from URI has not been in the picture? Injury?

Well first off, the reason Lambert starts over Vazzano is he is just plain better. Vazzano played most of the time last year and completed just 44% of his passes compared to Lambert who completed 69%. This year, Lambert has completed 64%. Just because someone was at an FCS or FBS school and then transfers to the NESCAC does not guarantee success. Look at the QB at Bowdoin and Vazzano as prime examples. Leibowitz was the exception, not the rule.

The bigger issue for the Staters from Hartford has been the play of their O-line. Last year, when they led the NESCAC in rushing, they averaged 5.0 yards per carry and almost 230 rushing yards/game. This year, they are average 3.6 yards per carry and 156 yards/game. In 2018, they gave up 14 sacks for the whole year. Through 5 games in 2019, they have already allowed 19 sacks. We rest our case...

To be clear, I didn't wonder why Vazzano is not starting. I don't know how that was attributed to me. Second, the OL isn't necessarily all of the problem. The running game is vastly improved since Harris has taken over at RB, and he averages 4.9/per carry. Your use of the overall 3.6 yds per carry includes QB rushes and those of the previous RB. Last week, Lambert rushed for 0.8/yds per carry. I'll agree that OL penalties and sacks given up were horrendous in the first 3 games, but those stats greatly improved with Harris in the game. A run-first offense the last two weeks has helped reduce sacks to 1.5 per game and has otherwise masked some weak QB play.  Time will tell if these improvements in offensive play are enough to result in wins with tougher games ahead.

We don't need to go back and forth...but since you are trying to poke holes in our analysis, we will drill down even further:

1. You do realize who Hartford State played the last two weeks, right? Before we proclaim Harris the next coming of Jim Brown, let's see him put up some numbers against one of the better teams in the league instead of UBates and Hamilton.
2. Last week, against UBates, Harris had 139 yards on 27 carries. However, 46 of those yards were on one carry. If you take that one run out, he had 93 yards on 26 carries for 3.58 YPC. 
3. Yes, the 3.6 YPC for 2019 includes runs by the QB, but if you have watched "your" team play, most of those runs by Lambert were RPO's or designed runs. BTW, guess what, the 5.0 YPC in 2018 includes runs by the QB as well (62 of them by Lambert, in fact) at a 3.0 YPC clip (Lambert is averaging 2.8 YPC in 2019).
4. Let's look at another stat that directly speaks to offensive line play, "tackles for loss". In 2018, for the full season, HS gave up 51 TFL (about 5.5 per week). Thus far in 2019, in 5 weeks, HS has already allowed 45 TFL or 9 per week. Even last week, against lowly UBates, they allowed 7 TFL.

The only point we are trying to make is that there's clearly an issue with the O-line in Hartford, no matter how you try to sugar coat it. Let's call it like it is...

[MidDay]

Middlebury coach Bob Ritter is the guest on the latest edition of our podcast: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2019/10/18/atn-podcast-251-everyone-learns-to-pronounce-allianz/

A good listen -- thanks Pat.

[maineman]

They've all been practicing this week.

That sounds optimistic!

[Nescacman]

http://nothingbutnescac.com/?p=7804

NbN's Midd/Wes preview notes that Cosolito and Maldjian should be back, with no word on Woodring. Sounds like MidDay has the scoop as well.

As for the game itself, I really have no idea. It feels like Middlebury is beyond due for a loss, they keep winning games that on paper they should not be winning--outgained by Trinity and Williams, 6 turnovers against Amherst, and the well documented nail biter against Colby. But at the same time, there is something to be said for that. Jernigan just has a knack for the big play in the big moment, a swagger that no one else seems to have an answer for. Wesleyan is definitely an interesting stylistic matchup--the turnover numbers as compared to Midd's are especially eye-popping. I just don't think a 20-13 win over a pretty average Tufts team, that outplayed them for the majority of the game, all of a sudden answers any questions about them as a football team. Feel like you have to lean Middlebury.

Interesting analysis by the NARPs over at NBN on the GOTW....the analysis and write-up seems to point to a Wes win but all of the picks are pro-Middlebury...we'll give you one guess what school most of, if not all of the NBN crew attended...

[Nescacman]

http://nothingbutnescac.com/?p=7804

NbN's Midd/Wes preview notes that Cosolito and Maldjian should be back, with no word on Woodring. Sounds like MidDay has the scoop as well.

As for the game itself, I really have no idea. It feels like Middlebury is beyond due for a loss, they keep winning games that on paper they should not be winning--outgained by Trinity and Williams, 6 turnovers against Amherst, and the well documented nail biter against Colby. But at the same time, there is something to be said for that. Jernigan just has a knack for the big play in the big moment, a swagger that no one else seems to have an answer for. Wesleyan is definitely an interesting stylistic matchup--the turnover numbers as compared to Midd's are especially eye-popping. I just don't think a 20-13 win over a pretty average Tufts team, that outplayed them for the majority of the game, all of a sudden answers any questions about them as a football team. Feel like you have to lean Middlebury.

Spring, did you watch the Wes/Tufts game last week? Yes, Tufts clearly won the first half but the Cards came to play in the second half out scoring the Jumbo's 20-3, forcing the Jumbo's to go three and out on their first 3 possessions of the second half, not allowing 1 first down in the 3rd quarter and only 4 in the whole second half. So to say that Tufts outplayed Wes for the "majority of the game" is just blatantly false. Minus K to you for blatant fake news...

[IslandTime]

http://nothingbutnescac.com/?p=7804

NbN's Midd/Wes preview notes that Cosolito and Maldjian should be back, with no word on Woodring. Sounds like MidDay has the scoop as well.

As for the game itself, I really have no idea. It feels like Middlebury is beyond due for a loss, they keep winning games that on paper they should not be winning--outgained by Trinity and Williams, 6 turnovers against Amherst, and the well documented nail biter against Colby. But at the same time, there is something to be said for that. Jernigan just has a knack for the big play in the big moment, a swagger that no one else seems to have an answer for. Wesleyan is definitely an interesting stylistic matchup--the turnover numbers as compared to Midd's are especially eye-popping. I just don't think a 20-13 win over a pretty average Tufts team, that outplayed them for the majority of the game, all of a sudden answers any questions about them as a football team. Feel like you have to lean Middlebury.

Spring, did you watch the Wes/Tufts game last week? Yes, Tufts clearly won the first half but the Cards came to play in the second half out scoring the Jumbo's 20-3, forcing the Jumbo's to go three and out on their first 3 possessions of the second half, not allowing 1 first down in the 3rd quarter and only 4 in the whole second half. So to say that Tufts outplayed Wes for the "majority of the game" is just blatantly false. Minus K to you for blatant fake news...

Agree. WES had sustained drives whereas Tufts was shut down other then 1-2 desperation passes to keep alive a couple of drives. WES owned the second half of that game in all 3 phases.

Hoping to see Middlebury "outplay" the Cards and WES being 6-0 at the end of the day.

[GameBall14]

Looking forward to watching the Midd-Wes game after attending last week's night game. Should be a good one and one that could be similar to last week's Wes-Tufts game, hard hitting, defensive game and a game of field position. The rest of the slate doesn't offer much unless teams are caught looking ahead. 

[Canvas Hightops]

At least one of the NBN guys will likely be first team all NESCAC in hoops.
nescacman, what is your non-NARP credential?

[bantamweight]

The only point we are trying to make is that there's clearly an issue with the O-line in Hartford, no matter how you try to sugar coat it. Let's call it like it is...

It seems you never spent any time on a huddle. Let me make this as clear as possible. Statistics don't tell the whole story. I also clearly stated that time will tell if the changes made will result in wins against better teams.

You're either extremely arrogant to so easily dismiss a reasonable response or you're so thin skinned that any response offends you. Either is unbecoming.

[Heftylefty]

Yikes Wesleyan

[GameBall14]

Impressive performance by the Panthers. After Wesleyan scored to make it 7-3, it's been all Middlebury.

[GameBall14]

If you look at the O-Line at Trinity, there are two seniors, Baiardi has been nicked up this year and is an All NESCAC player. All the other lineman are FYs and Sophomores. There are no juniors on the offensive line as that recruiting class was primarily skill players. The O-Line is a problem this year and it's mostly because of lack of experience and time in the weight room.