FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

Helbig is legit.

What happened to that Tufts DL who was a pre-season all-American?  Hurt?  Seems like a very quiet year.

He's been playing eph1....we watched him...good PR job by the Dumbo SID....overrated...sort of like the Conts James Ball...we hope we haven't overstepped for calling Jovan or Ball overrated...not trying to offend anyone....

[Nescacman]

2021 Week #8 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome back NESCAC...it's Week #8 in the league where they "pay to play"...this week features another big game as Wesleyan heads north to face the Purple Cows...our "upset" special this week...we hope you like Red and Black!!!

UBates (Lewiston Campus) at Bowdoin: If Costa plays, this is a game (according to the UBates and Bowdoin websites, he's not playing...too bad); without him it's not...it's that simple...Costa has accounted for more than 85% of the Bates offense this year and 13 of their 14 TDs...he is probably the single most important player on any team in the NESCAC...for purposes of our predictions, we will assume he is not playing....UBates has won 9 out of the last 10 meetings between these 2 C-C-B powers...Boel has cooled off a bit from his hot start but we think the combo with Eden will score enough to get it done for the Polars...

Bowdoin 21 UBates 13
Point Spread: Bowdoin -7 
Weather: Mainly sunny. High 51.

Middlebury College at Hamilton College: A few questions: did anyone outside of Middlebury and Hamilton know that they are "big" rivals and play for something called the "Old Rocking Chair" every year...since Hamilton last won it in 1995, does Middlebury even bring it to Clinton when they play the Conts?...interesting, learn something new everyday...Middlebury coming off of 4 straight losses gets the win v. the Polars last week...Hamilton has lost their last 3 games by a total of 90-14...two teams going opposite directions...we like the Pants in this one....we think Middlebury has much more offensive talent than Hamilton, particularly at the skill positions and it will show on Saturday....look for Jernigan to light it up on a poor Continental defense...

Middlebury 31 Hamilton 14
Point Spread: Middlebury -3
Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 51.

Amhurst College at Hartford State: Really interesting game...Lord Jeffrey coming off their big win in the rain against Wes and Hartford State licking their wounds after the rout in Billville...look for Hartford State to pass early and often...for the Lord Jeffs to stay in this game, they will need to figure out a way to run the ball effectively (as the Purple Cows did) and eat the clock to have a shot at the win on the road...game could come down to penalties (HS most penalized team in the league; Lord Jeff's are the least) and turnovers...Lord Jeffs will need to do better than their season average of 54% when they get in the red zone...if HS beats the LJs and Wes beats the Ephs, sets up a co-championship game next week in Middletown... 

Hartford State 24 Amhurst 14
Point Spread: Hartford State -8
Weather: Sunny. High of 53.   

Colby College at Tufts University: The Dumbo's trying to finish off the season on a high note after losing their first 5 have now won 2 in a row, albeit against perennial league also-fans Bowdoin and Hamilton...other than their loss to UBates, Tufts has played everyone close including the Ephs and Wes...Colby meanwhile has been up and down all-year...surprisingly, the Mules have played better on the road...these two teams are opposites of each other...Tufts' offense (1st in the NESCAC in yards) has been good while their defense has been bad (9th in the NESCAC allowing almost 400 yards per game)...Colby's offense is last in yards and scoring while their defense has been OK (primarily their rushing defense)....the Mules can be thrown on (9th in the NESCAC in pass defense) and the Dumbo's are first in passing offense so we look for Berlutti to throw a lot on Saturday as he solidifies his lock on the offensive rookie of the year award...we think Tufts has way too much fire power for the Mules and wins their 3rd in a row

Tufts 28 Colby 14
Point Spread: Tufts -7
Weather: Mainly sunny. High of 54.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Wesleyan University at TTUN: BIG battle in Billville...hopefully, this game lives up to expectations...last week's GOTW laid a purple egg...here's what's at stake....Wes wins and the league championship could be won by  Hartford State, the Lord Jeff's, Wes or the Ephs...Ephs win, and they control their own destiny...both teams 6-0 against common opponents...for the Ephs to win, they need to stop the high powered Wes offense led by David Estevez (who leads the NESCAC in all-purpose yardage) and run the ball effectively against the top-ranked Wes run defense (19th in the country)...for Wes to win, they need to stop the run, force Maimaron to throw and then get some pressure on him, stay away from penalties, and  generate some turnovers...we don't think the Ephs win a shoot-out, although they certainly have the weapons to score...TTUN is last in the league in passing offense and they only threw 7 passes last week against Hartford State but lead the league in scoring....Wes has won 7 straight against the Ephs and Coach Dice has never lost to his alma matter as head coach...just a feeling but we think Wes has something to prove after last week...we'll take Wes on the road in the big upset and another classic Little 3 game...

Wesleyan 24 TTUN 23 
Point Spread: TTUN -6
Weather: Sunny. High of 50.

NESCACMAN's Picks (winners):
2021 Season: 27-8
2020 Season: 0-0
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 255-75 (.773 winning percentage)

[SpringSt7]

I don't know if this is a misunderstanding on my part but if Williams wins on Saturday the race for the league title is over. As I understand it both Wesleyan and Williams currently control their own destiny in the classic sense of the term. But if Williams wins on Saturday they'll be 8-0 with a win over 1 loss Trinity and Wesleyan will be 6-2.

[Nescacman]

I don't know if this is a misunderstanding on my part but if Williams wins on Saturday the race for the league title is over. As I understand it both Wesleyan and Williams currently control their own destiny in the classic sense of the term. But if Williams wins on Saturday they'll be 8-0 with a win over 1 loss Trinity and Wesleyan will be 6-2.

Incorrect...if the Purple Cows win Saturday over Wes but lose to the Lord Jeff's next Saturday AND Hartford State wins out, the PCs and HS will both be 8-1 and NESCAC co-champions...no more tie breakers in the NESCAC...champ solely determined by record which means even if the PCs and HS tie, co-champs despite PCs win over HS...

If the Purple Cows win and the Lord Jeff's win tomorrow, then the PCs will have clinched the NESCAC title because they will be the only team that could end up with 1 loss, at most...

[SpringSt7]

Because it could come in handy when things get weird tomorrow...ranked in order of my best guess at most likely outcomes.

WILLIAMS WINS THE LEAGUE IF

-They beat Wesleyan

OR

-If they beat Amherst and Wesleyan loses to Trinity in Week 9

WESLEYAN WINS THE LEAGUE IF

-They beat Williams and Trinity

OR

-They beat Williams AND Trinity loses to Amherst AND Williams loses to Amherst

TRINITY WINS THE LEAGUE IF

-They beat Amherst AND beat Wesleyan AND Williams loses to Wesleyan AND loses to Amherst

OR

-Williams loses to Wesleyan AND Trinity beats Wesleyan = 3 way tiebreaker (unknown?)

AMHERST WINS THE LEAGUE IF

-Amherst beats Trinity AND beats Williams AND Wesleyan beats Williams AND Trinity beats Wesleyan


If there are any other scenarios or tiebreaker options, please pass them on.

[SpringSt7]

I don't know if this is a misunderstanding on my part but if Williams wins on Saturday the race for the league title is over. As I understand it both Wesleyan and Williams currently control their own destiny in the classic sense of the term. But if Williams wins on Saturday they'll be 8-0 with a win over 1 loss Trinity and Wesleyan will be 6-2.

Incorrect...if the Purple Cows win Saturday over Wes but lose to the Lord Jeff's next Saturday AND Hartford State wins out, the PCs and HS will both be 8-1 and NESCAC co-champions...no more tie breakers in the NESCAC...champ solely determined by record which means even if the PCs and HS tie, co-champs despite PCs win over HS...

If the Purple Cows win and the Lord Jeff's win tomorrow, then the PCs will have clinched the NESCAC title because they will be the only team that could end up with 1 loss, at most...

If there are two teams at 8-1 and one has the H2H, is it really likely that the other team would still feel like league champs? Honest question.

[Nescacman]

I don't know if this is a misunderstanding on my part but if Williams wins on Saturday the race for the league title is over. As I understand it both Wesleyan and Williams currently control their own destiny in the classic sense of the term. But if Williams wins on Saturday they'll be 8-0 with a win over 1 loss Trinity and Wesleyan will be 6-2.

Incorrect...if the Purple Cows win Saturday over Wes but lose to the Lord Jeff's next Saturday AND Hartford State wins out, the PCs and HS will both be 8-1 and NESCAC co-champions...no more tie breakers in the NESCAC...champ solely determined by record which means even if the PCs and HS tie, co-champs despite PCs win over HS...

If the Purple Cows win and the Lord Jeff's win tomorrow, then the PCs will have clinched the NESCAC title because they will be the only team that could end up with 1 loss, at most...

If there are two teams at 8-1 and one has the H2H, is it really likely that the other team would still feel like league champs? Honest question.

Yes.

[D3FLETCH]

Because it could come in handy when things get weird tomorrow...ranked in order of my best guess at most likely outcomes.

WILLIAMS WINS THE LEAGUE IF

-They beat Wesleyan

OR

-If they beat Amherst and Wesleyan loses to Trinity in Week 9

WESLEYAN WINS THE LEAGUE IF

-They beat Williams and Trinity

OR

-They beat Williams AND Trinity loses to Amherst AND Williams loses to Amherst

TRINITY WINS THE LEAGUE IF

-They beat Amherst AND beat Wesleyan AND Williams loses to Wesleyan AND loses to Amherst

OR

-Williams loses to Wesleyan AND Trinity beats Wesleyan = 3 way tiebreaker (unknown?)

AMHERST WINS THE LEAGUE IF

-Amherst beats Trinity AND beats Williams AND Wesleyan beats Williams AND Trinity beats Wesleyan


If there are any other scenarios or tiebreaker options, please pass them on.

Bowdoin will win the league if all other NESCAC schools disband football.

[maineman]

The Nescac scoreboard says Bowdoin is leading Midd 14-0 in a game played in Clinton, NY.  Ugh!

[nescac1]

Helbig has been an absolute force for Wesleyan in the first half, single-handedly keeping Wesleyan in the game, he's been living in the Eph offensive backfield.  Definitely the most impactful DL Williams has played against this year.

After some early struggles to get going on offense, the Ephs have moved the ball well behind Nicholas and Maimaron runs and some nice catches by Stola (who has been very well-covered by Danny Banks) but for the first time all year they've struggled in the red zone, with a few missed really good opportunities (a receiver just barely out of bounds and a LONG Maimaron TD run overturned on an illegal block at the one yard line, huge momentum killer, second Maimaron long TD run overturned in two weeks, he has to be frustrated).  Shuran has been clutch but you never want to be up just 9 when you are down near the goal line three separate times, Wesleyan has to be happy to be down only 9, they are definitely in this game.   

Williams defense has been very stout despite Wesleyan throwing every trick play and misdirection in the book out there ... a few of which worked pretty well.  Bad news for Williams is that NESCAC DPOY candidate Ian Devine suffered a leg injury very early in the game and looks to be done for the season.  Wesner is back for the Ephs and has had a very good game, but Devine is just a massive loss because he can generate pass rush in a three-man rush.  David Estevez has played very well for Wesleyan, but when he hasn't been in at QB, the offense has stalled.   

[jumpshot]

Hey nescacman, perhaps you can explain to those of us who you charge with not knowing anything about NESCAC football how Williams College crushed westech today 25-0?

[nescac1]

Congrats to NESCAC champion Williams for a dominating win over Raymond's great white whale(n), ending the Wesleyan streak in style. 

The Eph D was for the second week in a row beyond dominating.  I do not think Wesleyan got within the Williams 20 yard line all game!  And the offense did what it did all year -- wearing down the opposing front seven so that by the fourth quarter, there is no chance to stop the running game.  445 to 212 total yards pretty much tells the story of the game. 

Although Estevez was solid for Wesleyan, Maimaron clearly won the individual battle and should be NESCAC POY.  His stats were modest, deceptively so because late in the game he gave himself up for some big losses on the ground, but he did accumulate 127 big yards on the ground even if the net was only 91.  His 7 completions all seemed to come at absolutely critical times, usually on third down plays and of course the big strike that opened up the game in the second half.  As usual, the stats don't really tell the story but he was fantastic after a rough start the game, finally shaking the Wesleyan monkey off his back.  Joel Nicholas, like last year, gets better the more the season goes along and now he seems to be shooting through the hole with lightning speed in addition to his immense power and shiftiness.  His TD run was spectacular and he just seems not-fun to try to tackle.  Feels like no one can really stop him this year and with 173 yards on the ground maybe he will even get the POTW award that somehow eluded him last week. 

For Williams, the corners as they have been since the Tufts game were stellar, Alex Dehmel you almost never see except when he's breaking up a pass, his man rarely seems to get open and he's great against speed receivers.  Giandomenico was stellar in run support today, he is basically a strong safety playing corner and his physicality is a big asset against a team like Wesleyan. 

Another standout was first year Ryan Carney, who hasn't played much this year but looks like yet another impressive young defensive lineman (and another potential star from B.C. High) for Williams, he had 5 tackles including two sacks filling in for injured Ian Devine.  With Devine, Vilfort, Peters, Calvin Jackson, Cameron Smith, Carney, and Osayimwen all back next year (and three of them are frosh and two sophomores, so most will be around for awhile), that's going to be a unit that torments opposing O-lines for awhile, Williams has a luxury of rotating them in and keeping them all fresh.  They've gotten MUCH better as a group over the course of this season, even, peaking in shutting down Trinity and Wes in back-to-back weeks.   Not since the days of Ethan Brooks have the Ephs had so much talent on the defensive front. 

For Wesleyan, Estevez, Tomlinson, Helbig, Eighmy, and Banks had strong games, but no one else had a really memorable day.  Helbig was much quieter in the second half so the Ephs made a good halftime adjustment there.  Wesleyan's QBs can't really throw the ball down the field well enough to scare the Eph secondary, especially after facing Trinity the week before.  Scott just had a nightmarish day, but Estevez didn't hurt the Ephs through the air either.  And while the Wesleyan defensive front held up reasonably well in the first half, the second half was an entirely different story as Nicholas ran over them and Maimaron around them. 

Huge game for Williams next week to potentially go 9-0, win at Amherst which is the one thing Maimaron has yet to accomplish, and also enter the conversation for best NESCAC squad ever.  Amherst is not in the Ephs' class, clearly, this year, but weird things have happened in rivalry games in the past ...

Meanwhile, Wesleyan at least should be happy they didn't play Trinity this week, sounds like the Bantams were angry ....

[polbear73]

Best NESCAC team ever?  Not by a long shot.

[D3FLETCH]

Chuck Priore's early 2000's Bantams would have competed for a National Championship. I would be more interested in a discussion of Worst NESCAC team... Calling all Bobcats and Continentals

[polbear73]

Bowdoin many times over with several teams in Caputi's first years

.