FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

Serious question---what's the o/u on Amherst points scored against Williams? Is it ridiculous to say 2.5 or 3?

Is it possible to score minus points? Seriously, we think 3.5 is a good over/under for points scored by Lord Jeffrey on Saturday....we'd take the under btw...

[JEFFFAN]

No offense but are you guys nuts?   No one loves Amherst more than me - well, maybe AMH63 - but this is a  major mismatch at play.   Williams did a great job of recruiting, Amherst has not done such a good job for reasons that we might never know about, and the talent disparity is startling now.  Hard to believe that Amherst beat the snot out of Williams a few years back.   You can create whatever line you want but Williams is going to blow Amherst's doors off tomorrow.  Go to the bank on it.

[SpringSt7]

Talking about how many points Amherst will score---not the spread itself.

[lumbercat]

No offense but are you guys nuts?   No one loves Amherst more than me - well, maybe AMH63 - but this is a  major mismatch at play.   Williams did a great job of recruiting, Amherst has not done such a good job for reasons that we might never know about, and the talent disparity is startling now.  Hard to believe that Amherst beat the snot out of Williams a few years back.   You can create whatever line you want but Williams is going to blow Amherst's doors off tomorrow.  Go to the bank on it.

Probably so but I'd take Amherst score over 3.5

[JEFFFAN]

My bad - yes, I would not be surprised if Amherst gets shut out tomorrow unless Williams has a turnover on their side of the field.   The other way for Amherst to score would be if Williams puts in the second and third string defense in the third and fourth quarters.  That is how Amherst scored last week against Trinity after Devaney ran it up a bit ... but I digress!

[polbear73]

Amherst-Williams can be closer than expected and Williams won't run up score like Trinity. Won't be as bad as you think.

[Nescacman]

Amherst-Williams can be closer than expected and Williams won't run up score like Trinity. Won't be as bad as you think.

Reality check here...Purple Cows defense shut out Wes and only allowed Hartford State to score 3 points...both of those offense are light years better than Lord Jeffrey's...yes, Lord Jeffrey could get lucky and score a TD, but we don't see it....

If "closer than expected" means it is a ONLY a 28 point win for the Ephs, than yes, it COULD BE closer than we expect...

Friends, these are two programs going opposite directions looking at the forest through the trees...   

[Nescacman]

2021 Week #9 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome back NESCAC...it's Week #9 in the league where they "pay to play"...this week features two important games as Wesleyan faces Hartford State for second place in the NESCAC and the Purple Cows travel to face Lord Jeffrey with the Little 3 and NESCAC titles on the line...

Hamilton College at UBates (Lewiston Campus): We think UBates QB Brendan Costa ends his career with a bang at home (he's already set the UBates single season record for total yards and passing yards) ...Costa has accounted for more than 86% of the Bates offense and 17 of their 18 TDs...probably best all-around QB in UBates history....Hamilton has lost 5 straight and has only scored more than 14 points once this year...UBates has played well at home but is still looking for their first win in Lewsiton...we think HAMs QB situation is a mess...we don't often say that 3-6 is a great year, but if UBates wins, how can you not based on the adversity they faced coming into the season...

UBates 24 Hamilton 14
Point Spread: UBates -6 
Weather: Cloudy in the AM with increasing chance of rain later in the day. High 55.

Tufts University at Middlebury College: We are expecting this one to be a high scoring shoot-out with two gunslingers going at it...Jernigan has picked it up in recent weeks against inferior defenses...meanwhile, Berlutti continues to impress leading the league in total offense per game....we expect a close one but Tufts standout wideout Lutz is the difference maker in this one (he can set the Tufts all-time catches and receiving yards records for a season this week)...weather could be a factor here but they do play on turf...hard to believe that Middlebury goes from 9-0 to 3-6 in "one year"...

Tufts 35 Middlebury 34
Point Spread: Middlebury -3
Weather: Rain showers in the AM will evolve into a more steady rain in the afternoon. High of 49.

Bowdoin College at Colby College: Other than the parents of current players and super engaged alums, does anyone really care about this game?...Colby wins and the C-B-B is theirs, Polars win and it is a three-way tie (does everyone get a trophy in that case?)...to add insult to injury, this is a 5:00 PM start in Waterville, yikes, masochists only need apply... Bowdoin doesn't play D and Colby doesn't score...Bowdoin's O is respectable and Colby's defense gives up lots of yards...we think Boel/Eden take control of the game and give Polar fans an early Christmas present with a mild upset on the road...

Bowdoin 24 Colby 17
Point Spread: Colby -1
Weather: Mostly sunny during the day and clear and dark at night. High of 56.

Williams College at Amhurst College: History lesson...Ephs have not won at Amherst since 2010...meanwhile, Ephs won their last meeting in 2019 in Billville 33-9....we think the latter is more relevant to this year's game...Ephs are more complete and better this year, in our opinion, and the Lord Jeffs are probably worse...we expect the Purple Cows to run the ball early and often as they cruise to their first NESCAC and Little 3 titles in eleven years...largest winning margin for the Ephs was in 1899 when they won 60-0...for the record, we don't see that being threatened this year but we do expect a resounding win by the Ephs...   

Williams 31 Amhurst 3
Point Spread: Williams -21
Weather: Partly cloudy in the AM will give way to cloudy skies and chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 59.   

NESCAC Game of the Week

Hartford State College at Wesleyan University: BIG battle for second place in the "Battle for the Birdcage"...Wes wins and second place is theirs...Hartford State wins and they will have sole possession of second place...Hartford State has a shot at a tie for NESCAC championship but they will need lots of help from Lord Jeffrey and will need to take care of business in Middletown...for Wes to win, they need to stop Fetter, Girard, Reid and the HS passing game, put pressure on Fetter, avoid the big play (which has been their Achilles heal this year), and force HS to run; offensively, they need to get their offense going again; it can be explosive but hasn't been the last 2 weeks (albeit against the Ephs and the weather)....for HS to win, they need to stop Estevez and the running game and force Wes to pass...offensively, no secret that they will be pass first against a Wes defense that has looked better the last half of the season...Wes hasn't won back-to-back games against Hartford State since '97 and '98...we'll take Wes at home in the upset in the third biggest rivalry game in the NESCAC (1st-Ephs/Lord Jeffrey, 2nd-Wes v. Ephs/Lord Jeffrey, 3rd-Wes/Hartford State)...

Wesleyan 28 Hartford State 27 
Point Spread: Hartford State -7
Weather: Sunny in the AM will give way to cloudy skies and chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 61.   

NESCACMAN's Picks (winners):
2021 Season: 30-10
2020 Season: 0-0
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 258-77 (.770 winning percentage)

[SpringSt7]

Weird that Amherst and Williams are playing with a Little Three championship and a NESCAC title on the line and the game seemingly has no juice. I get that Amherst looked terrible last week and Williams has been absolutely dominant the last two weeks but c'mon this Amherst team just beat Wesleyan! They're 5-3!

[jumpshot]

Congratulations to the Williams College football player, coaches, and staff on completing a long and physical journey to an undefeated season, culminating with crushing wins over Trinity and Wesleyan, and a victory on the road over a determined amHerst team having a good game plan of throwing short passes and defending some of the Ephs favorite running plays. A tip of the hat to #83 of amHurst who caught passes, ran back kicks, made running plays, etc. Lots of Ephs at all positions played sustained excellent football throughout the season. Those of us Ephs who have won many Williams-amHurst contests know anything is possible when the two teams meet, regardless of expectations. Well done, Ephs!

[D3FLETCH]

Big day for the Bates O! Very good QB play from a freshman. Looked like a complete offense. The 3 INTs were flukes/dropped balls.   

[amh63]

Family gathered at daughter's house in Groton NY...to watch the Amherst-Williams game.  Daughter's anniversary.  Amherst had a chance to Win the game with a few minutes to go in the 4th quarter.  It was 24-19 with a few minutes to go in the 4th quarter...Williams ahead, but Amherst with the ball...let the official results await.   Broadcast was terrible...but it is NSN.  Refs' lost control of the game in the 2nd half, imo...but what the heck this is D3! 

[polbear73]

Amherst-Williams can be closer than expected and Williams won't run up score like Trinity. Won't be as bad as you think.

Reality check here...Purple Cows defense shut out Wes and only allowed Hartford State to score 3 points...both of those offense are light years better than Lord Jeffrey's...yes, Lord Jeffrey could get lucky and score a TD, but we don't see it....

If "closer than expected" means it is a ONLY a 28 point win for the Ephs, than yes, it COULD BE closer than we expect...

Friends, these are two programs going opposite directions looking at the forest through the trees...

I believe I was right, Nescacman despite your smug response. A 5 point game qualifies as  close one. Must be a blow finding out that you're not all knowing.

[nescac1]

Congrats to the Ephs on a fitting end to a spectacular season!  Amherst really came to play and were tough and physical on D.  Kudos to Amherst which could have quit after the Trinity debacle or even a few times today when it seemed Williams was close to putting the game to bed.   

The Ephs, other than Mario Fischetti who was electric, struggled to run the ball.  Surprisingly, the Eph pass D was leakier than usual with some Amherst receivers running open (plus a few making great catches).  Without Ian Devine, the pass rush wasn't as dominant as usual either.  Even Maimaron made some uncharacteristically questionable decisions with the ball.  But fittingly, a clutch throw from Maimaron to Stola, who was huge down the stretch, was the key play of the game.  In their very first game wayyyy back in 2017, those two announced that a new sheriff was in town at Williams.  That their connection was the key to clinching a 9-0 season, and a total turnaround from the winless disaster before they arrived on campus, just felt right ...

I expect that most of Maimaron, Stola, Burke, Watson, Wesner, Rothmann, Rooney (who sadly missed his last game with an injury) and Manzella will be adding to their already impressive array of all league honors ... what a group of players, and kudos to them for sticking around an extra year to finish what they started.  Go Ephs!

[AmherstStudent05]

(Begrudging) Congratulations to Williams on completing the cherished perfect season.

As has been mentioned previously, despite the unfortunate outcome, this really was one of the more entertaining Biggest Little Games in America in recent memory. Williams scored on each of its first three possessions and it looked for all the world that we were in store for the blowout that many were predicting, but Amherst admirably stiffened up and gave us one extraordinary game.

Chad Peterson played the entire game for us at QB. He had a rough first half throwing two bad interceptions. But he saved his best football of the season for the second half. He really showed remarkable poise (and accuracy) in engineering several impressive scoring drives in the second half.

I thought a key moment came at the end of the first half. Pinned deep in our own end, Williams was (wisely) calling timeouts in anticipation of getting the ball back in outstanding field position.  But on third and long Peterson scrambled for a first down conversion. We actually ended up driving down for a field goal to cut the lead to 17-6 at the half and that provided much needed momentum.

Williams was clearly the more talented team and they had several chances to put the game away but for various reasons never was able to. While they didn't look quite like the powerhouse team I was led to believe, I've seen enough Amherst-Williams games to know that a win truly is a win and in this context you can't always expect a dominant team to post a dominant performance. As mentioned by nescac1, Maimaron was not great but he connected on two gorgeous deep balls to Stola in the second half that were absolutely backbreaking for Amherst. One led to what would be the game winning TD and the other dramatically flipped field position with Williams pinned at its own 1 in the fourth quarter.

Still we had two possessions late in the game with a chance to secure the game-winning score. Couldn't get it done but it was still a great game.

Tip of the cap to Coach Mills and the coaching staff for getting his team ready to play in a big way today. There were plenty of opportunities during the game today where Amherst easily could have broken (frankly, on one or two occasions I may have prematurely thrown in the towel), but they fought tooth and nail to the bitter end.

Also got to see some of the pregame ceremonies honoring our seniors. Reminded me what a great program Coach Mills truly runs. From time to time I've heard gripes about playing time and scheme (as I am sure is true at any program) but I've never known anyone to question Coach Mills's character and competitiveness. Amherst is truly lucky to have him.

Finally big congratulations to the 2021 Amherst football team, particularly our seniors, who, like seniors across the conference, have had to overcome unprecedented obstacles to provide us with the greatest entertainment in sports this year. Wasn't exactly the season we were hoping for, but a winning record and wins over Midd, Wes and Tufts is still a nice deal. The Class of 2022 leave big shoes to fill and I'm sure our underclassmen are up for the challenge!