FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[BigKat]

* Panthers over Conts

[The Ghost of John Wesley]

Won't be an issue this year. Wes isn't nearly physical enough to hang with Trinity-especially when it's not played on their goat ranch field in the quad. And if the Nescacman's line isn't at least 28 for the Bants over the Conts, I'd be shocked.

I agree that Trinity is going to be a tough matchup for Wes and a win for the Cards would be a considerable upset at this point. But goat ranch field in the quad?! Pssssh.

I'm still amazed at the amount of ire Andrus Field generates. Playing on natural grass isn't some kind of primeval torture.

[NESCACFball24/7]

I don't think anybody complains about the fact that their field is natural grass but let's be real that is not a football field in any sense. They literally paint lines on their quad and call it a day and it shows with the number of potholes and and issues with their field. In fact natural grass is better for you than turf is and puts you at much lower risk for injury IF and only IF it is well maintained which wesleyans field is not. I'm surprised that the other schools in the league have not gotten together and made Wesleyan take better care of that facility because by week 4 it's a mess.

[BigKat]

Amen....Could lose a small farm animal in that grass. It's terrible. No issues at all with grass-actually prefer it.

[lumbercat]

I love the Andrus setting but on close review at the opening game this year I agree with the Kat. Its not a well conditioned grass surface.
Seems like they leave the grass long intentionally but that makes no sense to me given the speed of the Wes program. Back in the day  slower teams in speed conferences would leave the grass longer.

Bring in a turf guy from a golf club next spring and get that surface firm and fast. Would need to start with a sprinkler system.

[Scoops]

I LOVE the setup at Wes. But the condition of their field is borderline criminal. I'm 100% pro-grass as a playing surface, but if Wes isn't investing in the maintenance of Andrus, then they need to play somewhere else.

I love the Andrus setting but on close review at the opening game this year I agree with the Kat. Its not a well conditioned grass surface.
Seems like they leave the grass long intentionally but that makes no sense to me given the speed of the Wes program. Back in the day  slower teams in speed conferences would leave the grass longer.

Bring in a turf guy from a golf club next spring and get that surface firm and fast. Would need to start with a sprinkler system.

[Nescacman]

Andrus=Home Field Advantage

And guess what fellow Boardsters, they're not moving the field or changing it to turf in any of our collective lifetimes so you all better get used to it. It is and will remain the longest continuously used college football field in the country. We'll add, as an active alum, we love it and would be among the first to complain (vigorously) against changing the surface or relocating the field anywhere else on campus.

#rollcards #andrusforever

[Gray Fox]

Middlebury will be tested in both remaining games if they want to have a chance a grabbing part of the title with Trinity. (With Wesleyan's help). Both Hamilton and Tufts can play and if the Panthers lose the turn over battle, providing short fields to their opponents, they could be on the short end of things.  Hamilton hasn't defeated the Panthers in a long time and sometime it is going to happen.  That game is at home, but Tufts will be on the road, adding to the challenge.

Let's face facts Hamilton is bad and only beat Williams this year because frankly Williams was bad as well. So there is slim hope they could beat Middlebury. Now Tufts is a different story. They have been the best offense this year in the NESCAC. I know statistics say that Trinity leads in a great deal of categories. I really think but for a few Coaching blunders and special team mishaps that Tufts would be the League leader. I think Middlebury is going to find them a tough match up especially since Middlebury has to travel to Tufts. I always give edge to home team. This will be classic game as neither team can stop the others offense.

I don't mean to look past Hamilton, because they will surely be looking to play spoiler this weekend, but looking to a final weekend of the season against a challenging Tufts squad and a tough Trinity game, with the championship on the line.

I don't usually say this, but go Wes!

One side note that I think NESCAC has to do away with is CO-Champions. Any other League would decide a champion either by head to head competition or some other kind of formula. I would love to see in this situation some kind of final game between the two but we all know that will never happen.

This is NESCAC's version of the "participation trophy". Our recollection is that NESCAC did use head-to-head as a league champion tie breaker in football for perhaps a year or two and then scrapped it for some reason. As we have discussed (and previously shared the link to the documentation on the NESCAC web-site), they are just happy with ties now.

The SCIAC uses the same for "champions"  But they have other methods for determining who gets in the playoffs.

I think the co-champion thing is "old school"  that used to be the standard in most leagues.

[lumbercat]

NM
Love a natural grass field and would never suggest they change the location. Leave all as is but take better care of the natural grass surface.

[Former CAC Coach]

One side note that I think NESCAC has to do away with is CO-Champions. Any other League would decide a champion either by head to head competition or some other kind of formula. I would love to see in this situation some kind of final game between the two but we all know that will never happen.
[/quote]

This is NESCAC's version of the "participation trophy". Our recollection is that NESCAC did use head-to-head as a league champion tie breaker in football for perhaps a year or two and then scrapped it for some reason. As we have discussed (and previously shared the link to the documentation on the NESCAC web-site), they are just happy with ties now.
[/quote]

NM is right.  The only time this happened/mattered in the 9-game NESCAC era was in 2018 when Amherst and Trinity both finished 8-1, but the Bantams won the head-to-head matchup...while they were disappointed, no squawking came from the Mammoths.  NESCAC changed its direction soon thereafter, so co-champs could exist.

[Nescacman]

2022 Week #8 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome back NESCAC Fans! It's Week #8 in the league where they "pay to play". Hard to believe that we only have two weeks left in the season. Some questions to be answered. Will Hartford State win their last two games and be crowned NESCAC champion? Will Middlebury win out and keep the pressure on the Bantams (and root hard for UBates and Wes)? Will Wesleyan beat Williams and win another Little 3 title? Will Colby win the C-B-B? Will Amwurst win another game this year? Finally, we'd like to give a shout out to all the amazing student-athletes (and parents and alumni) that read these posts and send us notes of support both here and on social media. Greatly appreciated and that is what motivates us. 

Hamilton College Continentals (2-5)  at Middlebury College Panthers (6-1): Middlebury needs this one to keep their hopes alive of a NESCAC football championship. Even if Middlebury wins out, they will need some help (they need Hartford State to lose at least one of their two remaining games and MID needs to win out). Hard to imagine a scenario where Middlebury loses this game, the last home game in HCOF Ritter's illustrious coaching career. Hamilton is last in both total offense and total defense (BTW, that seems hard to do). Maybe it's time to face the facts that it's time to move on from HCOF Murray. BTW, same old story for Middlebury on offense; last in rushing offense but near the top in passing offense. KTV ("Keys to Victory") for Hamilton: We would rush 3 and put 8 men in coverage to force Middlebury to try to run the ball. Try to get the running game going to control the clock and keep the score low. KTV for Middlebury: Well, show up. Score 20 points and you win. Hamilton has not been able to contain the better offenses in the league allowing more than 40 points to Wes. Harford State and Tufts (losing by a combined 143-27). Middlebury has been almost as prolific scoring as those 3 teams, so we expect them to put up 40 points on Hamilton as well. Easy win for the Pants.

Middlebury 41 Hamilton 13
Point Spread: Middlebury -24
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Cloudy skies. Near record high temperatures. High of 73.

Bowdoin College Polar Bears (2-5) at Amwurst College Lord Mammoths (1-6): Word out of Brunswick it that they have lost starting QB Andrew Boel for the season. Just when Bowdoin had semblance of a competent QB, poof, he's gone. Here is what separates the top tier teams from the lower tier teams. In one word, DEPTH. If Wesleyan, Middlebury, or Hartford State were to lose their starting QB, they all have competent replacements behind their starters. Unfortunately, that does not appear to be the case with Bowdoin and the other lower tier teams in the NESCAC. So now, a potentially winnable game on the road against a Lord Mammoth team with a competent defense (4th in the NESCAC in total defense) and an anemic offense (last in the league in scoring and 9th in total offense) could very well be a loss. KTV for Bowdoin: Andre Eden and the Bowdoin RBs need to step up. They cannot rely on the QB to win the game. Here is the problem, despite having two of the better defensive players in the league (Max Jacobs and Drew Ortiz), the overall defense has not been good for the Polars. Can they do enough to stop the bad Amwurst offense. KTV for Amwurst: Score 10 or more points and you win. Stop the Bowdoin running game to force the new QB to pass the ball. We think the Lord Mammoth defense is the best unit on the field Saturday and they carry the day as the LMs get win #2 in 2022.

Amwurst 13 Bowdoin 7
Point Spread: Amwurst -3
Weather: Partly to mostly cloudy. High of 74.

Hartford State Bantams (7-0) at University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) College Bobkitties (2-5): We know who Wesleyan and Middlebury are rooting for. UBates has a better chance of beating Hartford State than Hamilton does of beating Middlebury. Hartford State has beaten the Bobkitties the last 25 times they've played. Very challenging game for UBates; Hartford State is #1 in scoring offense, scoring defense and total defense. Plus, we all know how hard it is for an away team to win in the "Coop". KTV for Hartford State: Hartford State running game has been very good (2 of the top 4 rushers in the league play for the Bantams) and Saturday should be no exception. The defense needs to force turnovers. They can't look ahead to game 9 vs. Wesleyan. KTV for UBates: Their offense will need to step up to keep up with Hartford State. UBates offense has been respectable (#5 in total offense) but their defense has not (#10 in scoring defense allowing 33 points a game). Although we think this is not necessarily the best Hartford State team we have ever seen, they have too much fire power to lose to UBates. We have a rooting interest in this one. BTW, with a win, Hartford State clinches at least a share of the NESCAC title.

Hartford State 38 UBates 17
Point Spread: Hartford State -21
Weather: Partly cloudy skies. Near record temperatures. High of 73.

Williams College Purple Cows (2-5) at Wesleyan University Cardinals (5-2): Wesleyan wins and they are 2022 Little 3 champions, which would be a nice consolation prize for the Cardinals. Wesleyan going for their 3rd outright Little 3 title since 2016 after not winning one single title from 1971-2012, an incredible streak of 43 years without beating both Williams and Amwurst in the same year. Unusual year in that both Amwurst and Williams enter Little 3 competition with losing records. Williams offense looked better last week against a challenged UBates defense. Converted WR/reconstituted QB Dan Vaughn is the reigning NESCAC offensive POTW. Can he step up in back-to-back weeks? In the 3 games prior to last week, Williams had not topped 13 points scored in a game. Wesleyan comes in having won 4 of their last 5 games and gutted out a tough win last week against Amwurst. Wesleyan comes in #2 ranked in the NESCAC in offense and defense. Special teams has been a challenge for Wesleyan. In particular, the place kicking. Word is, HCOF Dice has a few things up his sleeve for homecoming. KTV for Williams: Need to protect QB against the league-leading Wesleyan pass rush. Wesleyan has been passing the ball well, so the 8th ranked Purple Cow pass defense (we imagine that Williams wishes that Frank Stola's little brother, Rocco, was playing for the Purple Cows and not the Panthers-Rocco was defensive POTW last week in the NESCAC) needs to step up. QB Vaughn will need to have a big day; the Wesleyan defense is #2 in the NESCAC (and 15th nationally) in run defense. KTV for Wesleyan: Take advantage of opportunities to score. Avoid mistakes including turnovers, penalties, and mental errors. We expect a very big crowd on what promises to be a beautiful mid-fall day in Middletown. Expect Wes to scamper around and avoid the "divots" on ole Andrus on their way to a Little 3 title.

Wesleyan 31 Williams 17
Point Spread: Wesleyan -10
Weather: Sunshine and clouds mixed. Near record temperatures. High around 75.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Tufts University Jumbo's (4-3) at Colby College White Mules (4-3): Winner of this one clinches a winning season. Tufts has won the last 7 games against Colby. Same old story for the Jumbo's: Excellent offense (#1 in total offense in the NESCAC) but a defense that has had some issues (#7 ranked in the NESCAC). Colby is exactly the opposite: #8 in total offense and #3 in total defense. KTV for Tufts: Broke out of the offensive malaise we had seen the last few weeks against the horrendous Hamilton offense. Will need to see more of the same against Colby. Points could be at a premium. Running attack looked great last week and would be nice to see more of the same against Colby. KTV: for Colby: Defense will need to step up, in particular, the pass defense, which has been very good for the White Mules (#2 pass defense in the NESCAC). Michael Berluti has been the best QB in the League and maybe the best offensive player in the NESCAC this year. We think he's the best player on the field on Saturday (with all due respect to another stellar student athlete, Phil Lutz) and will carry the Jumbo's to victory.

Tufts 24 Colby 17
Point Spread: Pick 'em
Weather: Partly cloudy. Near record temperatures. High of 72.

NESCACMAN's Picks (winners):
2022 Season: 24-11 (4-1 last week)
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 285-90 (.760 winning percentage)

Follow us on Twitter @realnescacman

[The Ghost of John Wesley]

2022 Week #8 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome back NESCAC Fans! It's Week #8 in the league where they "pay to play". Hard to believe that we only have two weeks left in the season. Some questions to be answered. Will Hartford State win their last two games and be crowned NESCAC champion? Will Middlebury win out and keep the pressure on the Bantams (and root hard for UBates and Wes)? Will Wesleyan beat Williams and win another Little 3 title? Will Colby win the C-B-B? Will Amwurst win another game this year? Finally, we'd like to give a shout out to all the amazing student-athletes (and parents and alumni) that read these posts and send us notes of support both here and on social media. Greatly appreciated and that is what motivates us. 

Hamilton College Continentals (2-5)  at Middlebury College Panthers (6-1): Middlebury needs this one to keep their hopes alive of a NESCAC football championship. Even if Middlebury wins out, they will need some help (they need Hartford State to lose at least one of their two remaining games and MID needs to win out). Hard to imagine a scenario where Middlebury loses this game, the last home game in HCOF Ritter's illustrious coaching career. Hamilton is last in both total offense and total defense (BTW, that seems hard to do). Maybe it's time to face the facts that it's time to move on from HCOF Murray. BTW, same old story for Middlebury on offense; last in rushing offense but near the top in passing offense. KTV ("Keys to Victory") for Hamilton: We would rush 3 and put 8 men in coverage to force Middlebury to try to run the ball. Try to get the running game going to control the clock and keep the score low. KTV for Middlebury: Well, show up. Score 20 points and you win. Hamilton has not been able to contain the better offenses in the league allowing more than 40 points to Wes. Harford State and Tufts (losing by a combined 143-27). Middlebury has been almost as prolific scoring as those 3 teams, so we expect them to put up 40 points on Hamilton as well. Easy win for the Pants.

Middlebury 41 Hamilton 13
Point Spread: Middlebury -24
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Cloudy skies. Near record high temperatures. High of 73.

Bowdoin College Polar Bears (2-5) at Amwurst College Lord Mammoths (1-6): Word out of Brunswick it that they have lost starting QB Andrew Boel for the season. Just when Bowdoin had semblance of a competent QB, poof, he's gone. Here is what separates the top tier teams from the lower tier teams. In one word, DEPTH. If Wesleyan, Middlebury, or Hartford State were to lose their starting QB, they all have competent replacements behind their starters. Unfortunately, that does not appear to be the case with Bowdoin and the other lower tier teams in the NESCAC. So now, a potentially winnable game on the road against a Lord Mammoth team with a competent defense (4th in the NESCAC in total defense) and an anemic offense (last in the league in scoring and 9th in total offense) could very well be a loss. KTV for Bowdoin: Andre Eden and the Bowdoin RBs need to step up. They cannot rely on the QB to win the game. Here is the problem, despite having two of the better defensive players in the league (Max Jacobs and Drew Ortiz), the overall defense has not been good for the Polars. Can they do enough to stop the bad Amwurst offense. KTV for Amwurst: Score 10 or more points and you win. Stop the Bowdoin running game to force the new QB to pass the ball. We think the Lord Mammoth defense is the best unit on the field Saturday and they carry the day as the LMs get win #2 in 2022.

Amwurst 13 Bowdoin 7
Point Spread: Amwurst -3
Weather: Partly to mostly cloudy. High of 74.

Hartford State Bantams (7-0) at University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) College Bobkitties (2-5): We know who Wesleyan and Middlebury are rooting for. UBates has a better chance of beating Hartford State than Hamilton does of beating Middlebury. Hartford State has beaten the Bobkitties the last 25 times they've played. Very challenging game for UBates; Hartford State is #1 in scoring offense, scoring defense and total defense. Plus, we all know how hard it is for an away team to win in the "Coop". KTV for Hartford State: Hartford State running game has been very good (2 of the top 4 rushers in the league play for the Bantams) and Saturday should be no exception. The defense needs to force turnovers. They can't look ahead to game 9 vs. Wesleyan. KTV for UBates: Their offense will need to step up to keep up with Hartford State. UBates offense has been respectable (#5 in total offense) but their defense has not (#10 in scoring defense allowing 33 points a game). Although we think this is not necessarily the best Hartford State team we have ever seen, they have too much fire power to lose to UBates. We have a rooting interest in this one. BTW, with a win, Hartford State clinches at least a share of the NESCAC title.

Hartford State 38 UBates 17
Point Spread: Hartford State -21
Weather: Partly cloudy skies. Near record temperatures. High of 73.

Williams College Purple Cows (2-5) at Wesleyan University Cardinals (5-2): Wesleyan wins and they are 2022 Little 3 champions, which would be a nice consolation prize for the Cardinals. Wesleyan going for their 3rd outright Little 3 title since 2016 after not winning one single title from 1971-2012, an incredible streak of 43 years without beating both Williams and Amwurst in the same year. Unusual year in that both Amwurst and Williams enter Little 3 competition with losing records. Williams offense looked better last week against a challenged UBates defense. Converted WR/reconstituted QB Dan Vaughn is the reigning NESCAC offensive POTW. Can he step up in back-to-back weeks? In the 3 games prior to last week, Williams had not topped 13 points scored in a game. Wesleyan comes in having won 4 of their last 5 games and gutted out a tough win last week against Amwurst. Wesleyan comes in #2 ranked in the NESCAC in offense and defense. Special teams has been a challenge for Wesleyan. In particular, the place kicking. Word is, HCOF Dice has a few things up his sleeve for homecoming. KTV for Williams: Need to protect QB against the league-leading Wesleyan pass rush. Wesleyan has been passing the ball well, so the 8th ranked Purple Cow pass defense (we imagine that Williams wishes that Frank Stola's little brother, Rocco, was playing for the Purple Cows and not the Panthers-Rocco was defensive POTW last week in the NESCAC) needs to step up. QB Vaughn will need to have a big day; the Wesleyan defense is #2 in the NESCAC (and 15th nationally) in run defense. KTV for Wesleyan: Take advantage of opportunities to score. Avoid mistakes including turnovers, penalties, and mental errors. We expect a very big crowd on what promises to be a beautiful mid-fall day in Middletown. Expect Wes to scamper around and avoid the "divots" on ole Andrus on their way to a Little 3 title.

Wesleyan 31 Williams 17
Point Spread: Wesleyan -10
Weather: Sunshine and clouds mixed. Near record temperatures. High around 75.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Tufts University Jumbo's (4-3) at Colby College White Mules (4-3): Winner of this one clinches a winning season. Tufts has won the last 7 games against Colby. Same old story for the Jumbo's: Excellent offense (#1 in total offense in the NESCAC) but a defense that has had some issues (#7 ranked in the NESCAC). Colby is exactly the opposite: #8 in total offense and #3 in total defense. KTV for Tufts: Broke out of the offensive malaise we had seen the last few weeks against the horrendous Hamilton offense. Will need to see more of the same against Colby. Points could be at a premium. Running attack looked great last week and would be nice to see more of the same against Colby. KTV: for Colby: Defense will need to step up, in particular, the pass defense, which has been very good for the White Mules (#2 pass defense in the NESCAC). Michael Berluti has been the best QB in the League and maybe the best offensive player in the NESCAC this year. We think he's the best player on the field on Saturday (with all due respect to another stellar student athlete, Phil Lutz) and will carry the Jumbo's to victory.

Tufts 24 Colby 17
Point Spread: Pick 'em
Weather: Partly cloudy. Near record temperatures. High of 72.

NESCACMAN's Picks (winners):
2022 Season: 24-11 (4-1 last week)
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 285-90 (.760 winning percentage)

Follow us on Twitter @realnescacman

Nescacman,

Unless I missed it, we never had a postmortem about last week's Amherst game. What are your thoughts on what ended up being an ugly win? A win is a win and I'll take it, and I think Amherst is better than what their record suggests (probably the only real head-scratcher in their season being the two-touchdown loss to Hamilton in week 2), but I will say I was surprised it took OT for the Cards to dispatch the Lord Mammoths.

Parlaying that analysis into this week's game against the Ephs: I think that spread is far too high. I know Wes has had Williams' number over the last decade (apart from last season), but I think tomorrow is a one-score game and a toss up on who wins. Wes is playing for a Little Three title, but so is Williams. A Little Three is the only thing either team has to salvage the season.

It's really shocking/scary/depressing how the fight for the Little Three this year resembles the CBB in most years (i.e. none of the teams are in contention for the league title). In fact, through week 7, the three Maine schools have a combined record of 8-13, and the Little Three have a combined record of... 8-13! Totally surreal.

[The Mole]

Ghost, the issue with Wesleyan last two weeks has been kicking game and turnovers. Minus 3 vs the LJ Mammoths, fumble inside the 5, one to start the 2nd half and INT near the redzone. Not a good recipe. In addition, NM mentioned the TD pass caught by Tomlinson before the half (ref is right there) where BOTH his feet were inbounds. Coulda, woulda, shoulda--but that would have been a 13/14 point lead going into the half and getting the ball. If Cards do not turn it over and correct kicking woes, that spread is spot on. If they do not, it will be a coin flip game.

[lumbercat]

Before the season started I was convinced that Trinity and Wes were the 2 best teams in the conference. To me, that certainly looked to be the clear case on paper as I prognosticated on the upcoming season. Midd struggled last year and the NESCAC Harvard and Yale teams were clearly entering a downtrend. There was no doubt it would be the year of Trinity and Wes.

As a NECAC pundit (not) my call was Trin and Wes followed by everyone else. Thought those 2 arsenals were unlikely to lose a game and based on returning players, rosters etc I was convinced there would be a battle of those 2 undefeated teams on the last day of the season in the Nutmeg State.

With the Bates Garnet playing Hamilton in western Siberia it made sense to reroute plans for the Hamilton trip (we could fly to the Rose Bowl for the UCLA game in less time) so we planned to catch the Trin-Wes title game with a post game gallop to Mohegan Sun with some Bobcat friends.

Things don't always turn out as predicted. While 20/20 hindsight is undefeated, it's sad that things did not develop as I thought.
Good thing they don't take betting action on the NESCAC, I would have gotten fleeced. Thought this could be a Cardinal year.

With a pretty good sample size over the past several years Trinity is clearly a program that thrives on mental toughness, year after year. They don't make mistakes. While I think they have advantages, all within the sprit of Nescac rules, that Wes does not have, they are the best program in the conference. Patriot like.

They have done a fantastic job in Middletown in the Wes program but they just can't seem to take a final step that we all know is so difficult.

The difference between the 2 programs comes down to the same factors we see as determining factors at higher levels.

Trinity is perennially more physical than other Nescac teams. They are mentally tougher and better prepared than their peers.

I watched the Wes-Bowdoin tape recently, couldn't believe it. Until I see Trinity in that kind of effort Wes still has a ways to go. I don't know how you upset this Trinity wagon.

Hoping the Garnet can pull off the impossible in Lewiston tomorrow but know it's unlikely. Coach Coyne would kill for a win but at the end of the day, Coach has a plan and a process. The Garnet team, administration, faculty, and Alums are all in.

[Nescacman]

2022 Week #8 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome back NESCAC Fans! It's Week #8 in the league where they "pay to play". Hard to believe that we only have two weeks left in the season. Some questions to be answered. Will Hartford State win their last two games and be crowned NESCAC champion? Will Middlebury win out and keep the pressure on the Bantams (and root hard for UBates and Wes)? Will Wesleyan beat Williams and win another Little 3 title? Will Colby win the C-B-B? Will Amwurst win another game this year? Finally, we'd like to give a shout out to all the amazing student-athletes (and parents and alumni) that read these posts and send us notes of support both here and on social media. Greatly appreciated and that is what motivates us. 

Hamilton College Continentals (2-5)  at Middlebury College Panthers (6-1): Middlebury needs this one to keep their hopes alive of a NESCAC football championship. Even if Middlebury wins out, they will need some help (they need Hartford State to lose at least one of their two remaining games and MID needs to win out). Hard to imagine a scenario where Middlebury loses this game, the last home game in HCOF Ritter's illustrious coaching career. Hamilton is last in both total offense and total defense (BTW, that seems hard to do). Maybe it's time to face the facts that it's time to move on from HCOF Murray. BTW, same old story for Middlebury on offense; last in rushing offense but near the top in passing offense. KTV ("Keys to Victory") for Hamilton: We would rush 3 and put 8 men in coverage to force Middlebury to try to run the ball. Try to get the running game going to control the clock and keep the score low. KTV for Middlebury: Well, show up. Score 20 points and you win. Hamilton has not been able to contain the better offenses in the league allowing more than 40 points to Wes. Harford State and Tufts (losing by a combined 143-27). Middlebury has been almost as prolific scoring as those 3 teams, so we expect them to put up 40 points on Hamilton as well. Easy win for the Pants.

Middlebury 41 Hamilton 13
Point Spread: Middlebury -24
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Cloudy skies. Near record high temperatures. High of 73.

Bowdoin College Polar Bears (2-5) at Amwurst College Lord Mammoths (1-6): Word out of Brunswick it that they have lost starting QB Andrew Boel for the season. Just when Bowdoin had semblance of a competent QB, poof, he's gone. Here is what separates the top tier teams from the lower tier teams. In one word, DEPTH. If Wesleyan, Middlebury, or Hartford State were to lose their starting QB, they all have competent replacements behind their starters. Unfortunately, that does not appear to be the case with Bowdoin and the other lower tier teams in the NESCAC. So now, a potentially winnable game on the road against a Lord Mammoth team with a competent defense (4th in the NESCAC in total defense) and an anemic offense (last in the league in scoring and 9th in total offense) could very well be a loss. KTV for Bowdoin: Andre Eden and the Bowdoin RBs need to step up. They cannot rely on the QB to win the game. Here is the problem, despite having two of the better defensive players in the league (Max Jacobs and Drew Ortiz), the overall defense has not been good for the Polars. Can they do enough to stop the bad Amwurst offense. KTV for Amwurst: Score 10 or more points and you win. Stop the Bowdoin running game to force the new QB to pass the ball. We think the Lord Mammoth defense is the best unit on the field Saturday and they carry the day as the LMs get win #2 in 2022.

Amwurst 13 Bowdoin 7
Point Spread: Amwurst -3
Weather: Partly to mostly cloudy. High of 74.

Hartford State Bantams (7-0) at University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) College Bobkitties (2-5): We know who Wesleyan and Middlebury are rooting for. UBates has a better chance of beating Hartford State than Hamilton does of beating Middlebury. Hartford State has beaten the Bobkitties the last 25 times they've played. Very challenging game for UBates; Hartford State is #1 in scoring offense, scoring defense and total defense. Plus, we all know how hard it is for an away team to win in the "Coop". KTV for Hartford State: Hartford State running game has been very good (2 of the top 4 rushers in the league play for the Bantams) and Saturday should be no exception. The defense needs to force turnovers. They can't look ahead to game 9 vs. Wesleyan. KTV for UBates: Their offense will need to step up to keep up with Hartford State. UBates offense has been respectable (#5 in total offense) but their defense has not (#10 in scoring defense allowing 33 points a game). Although we think this is not necessarily the best Hartford State team we have ever seen, they have too much fire power to lose to UBates. We have a rooting interest in this one. BTW, with a win, Hartford State clinches at least a share of the NESCAC title.

Hartford State 38 UBates 17
Point Spread: Hartford State -21
Weather: Partly cloudy skies. Near record temperatures. High of 73.

Williams College Purple Cows (2-5) at Wesleyan University Cardinals (5-2): Wesleyan wins and they are 2022 Little 3 champions, which would be a nice consolation prize for the Cardinals. Wesleyan going for their 3rd outright Little 3 title since 2016 after not winning one single title from 1971-2012, an incredible streak of 43 years without beating both Williams and Amwurst in the same year. Unusual year in that both Amwurst and Williams enter Little 3 competition with losing records. Williams offense looked better last week against a challenged UBates defense. Converted WR/reconstituted QB Dan Vaughn is the reigning NESCAC offensive POTW. Can he step up in back-to-back weeks? In the 3 games prior to last week, Williams had not topped 13 points scored in a game. Wesleyan comes in having won 4 of their last 5 games and gutted out a tough win last week against Amwurst. Wesleyan comes in #2 ranked in the NESCAC in offense and defense. Special teams has been a challenge for Wesleyan. In particular, the place kicking. Word is, HCOF Dice has a few things up his sleeve for homecoming. KTV for Williams: Need to protect QB against the league-leading Wesleyan pass rush. Wesleyan has been passing the ball well, so the 8th ranked Purple Cow pass defense (we imagine that Williams wishes that Frank Stola's little brother, Rocco, was playing for the Purple Cows and not the Panthers-Rocco was defensive POTW last week in the NESCAC) needs to step up. QB Vaughn will need to have a big day; the Wesleyan defense is #2 in the NESCAC (and 15th nationally) in run defense. KTV for Wesleyan: Take advantage of opportunities to score. Avoid mistakes including turnovers, penalties, and mental errors. We expect a very big crowd on what promises to be a beautiful mid-fall day in Middletown. Expect Wes to scamper around and avoid the "divots" on ole Andrus on their way to a Little 3 title.

Wesleyan 31 Williams 17
Point Spread: Wesleyan -10
Weather: Sunshine and clouds mixed. Near record temperatures. High around 75.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Tufts University Jumbo's (4-3) at Colby College White Mules (4-3): Winner of this one clinches a winning season. Tufts has won the last 7 games against Colby. Same old story for the Jumbo's: Excellent offense (#1 in total offense in the NESCAC) but a defense that has had some issues (#7 ranked in the NESCAC). Colby is exactly the opposite: #8 in total offense and #3 in total defense. KTV for Tufts: Broke out of the offensive malaise we had seen the last few weeks against the horrendous Hamilton offense. Will need to see more of the same against Colby. Points could be at a premium. Running attack looked great last week and would be nice to see more of the same against Colby. KTV: for Colby: Defense will need to step up, in particular, the pass defense, which has been very good for the White Mules (#2 pass defense in the NESCAC). Michael Berluti has been the best QB in the League and maybe the best offensive player in the NESCAC this year. We think he's the best player on the field on Saturday (with all due respect to another stellar student athlete, Phil Lutz) and will carry the Jumbo's to victory.

Tufts 24 Colby 17
Point Spread: Pick 'em
Weather: Partly cloudy. Near record temperatures. High of 72.

NESCACMAN's Picks (winners):
2022 Season: 24-11 (4-1 last week)
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 285-90 (.760 winning percentage)

Follow us on Twitter @realnescacman

Nescacman,

Unless I missed it, we never had a postmortem about last week's Amherst game. What are your thoughts on what ended up being an ugly win? A win is a win and I'll take it, and I think Amherst is better than what their record suggests (probably the only real head-scratcher in their season being the two-touchdown loss to Hamilton in week 2), but I will say I was surprised it took OT for the Cards to dispatch the Lord Mammoths.

Parlaying that analysis into this week's game against the Ephs: I think that spread is far too high. I know Wes has had Williams' number over the last decade (apart from last season), but I think tomorrow is a one-score game and a toss up on who wins. Wes is playing for a Little Three title, but so is Williams. A Little Three is the only thing either team has to salvage the season.

It's really shocking/scary/depressing how the fight for the Little Three this year resembles the CBB in most years (i.e. none of the teams are in contention for the league title). In fact, through week 7, the three Maine schools have a combined record of 8-13, and the Little Three have a combined record of... 8-13! Totally surreal.

Not to gloat, but it s#cks being right. 14 point margin of victory for Wes was spot on. Congratulations to the Cards on winning our 3rd outright Little 3 in the last six years.

BTW, we're looking forward to drinking for free next year in Williamstown at Taconic courtesy of some friendly Purple Cow alums who took the Purple and 10 points. Any Cardinal faithful are more than welcome to join us. Even you Ghost, but you actually have to show up to partake. No virtual drinking allowed.

#rollcards