FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Scoops]

I've never heard of this "YARP" stat, but it's hard to take any list seriously when players like Skirzenski and Stola are put on his first team, and guys like Muldoon, Hooks, and Timmins who were first team all NESCAC aren't even listed. He's at least more sensible with the offensive selections from the NESCAC, but Cepalia over Woodring and Wood over Tomlinson are laughable at best. I may not know advanced analytics, but I do have eyes.

https://hansenratings.github.io/Region%201.html
I am not sure if anyone has followed this guy Hansen on twitter.
More D 3 Football Coverage

[GroundandPound]

https://www.d3football.com/awards/all-americans/2022
These guys put Cepalia over Woodring?

[GroundandPound]

https://nescac.com/stats.aspx?path=football&year=2022
I am not sure Woods over Tomlinson is "laughable."
Tomlinson- 979 yds Wood 938 yds
Tomlinson- 72 rec Woods 54 rec (Woods played with two other top 11 receivers: Livingston (53 rec) and Jamin (35 rec) and Tomlinson played with one other top 11 receiver Simco (36 rec))
Woods – 11 TDs  Tomlinson 10 TDs
Woods – 17.4 yds per catch; Tomlinson 13.6 yds per catch
Tomlinson – 8 rec per game Wood 6 rec per game
Tomlinson – 108 yds per game Wood 104 yds per game
Again, Wood played with two other top 11 receivers and Tomlinson played with one.
Also, Wesleyan had a much better run game 125 yds per game to Midds 70 yds per game.
Solid running game generally helps get receivers more space on pass routes.

[GroundandPound]

https://nescac.com/stats.aspx?path=football&year=2022
I am not sure Wood over Tomlinson is "laughable."
Tomlinson- 979 yds Wood 938 yds
Tomlinson- 72 rec Wood 54 rec (Wood played with two other top 11 receivers: Livingston (53 rec) and Jamin (35 rec) and Tomlinson played with one other top 11 receiver Simco (36 rec))
Wood – 11 TDs  Tomlinson 10 TDs
Wood – 17.4 yds per catch; Tomlinson 13.6 yds per catch
Tomlinson – 8 rec per game Wood 6 rec per game
Tomlinson – 108 yds per game Wood 104 yds per game
Again, Wood played with two other top 11 receivers and Tomlinson played with one.
Also, Wesleyan had a much better run game 125 yds per game to Midds 70 yds per game.
Solid running game generally helps get receivers more space on pass routes.

[GroundandPound]

https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1628971383920242690/photo/1
More info.  This chart assumed all seniors were NOT coming back for this fall. 

[Pat Coleman]

I've never heard of this "YARP" stat, but it's hard to take any list seriously when players like Skirzenski and Stola are put on his first team, and guys like Muldoon, Hooks, and Timmins who were first team all NESCAC aren't even listed. He's at least more sensible with the offensive selections from the NESCAC, but Cepalia over Woodring and Wood over Tomlinson are laughable at best. I may not know advanced analytics, but I do have eyes.

https://hansenratings.github.io/Region%201.html
I am not sure if anyone has followed this guy Hansen on twitter.
More D 3 Football Coverage

https://www.d3football.com/awards/all-americans/2022
These guys put Cepalia over Woodring?

We put Cepalia over Woodring based on our survey of NESCAC head football coaches.

[GroundandPound]

Based on Hansen's Data re: returning underclassmen assuming all seniors are not returning next fall...
Amherst O: 92% D: 81% Total: 88%
Bowdoin: O: 93% D: 78% Total 87%
Tufts: O: 79% D: 68% Total 75%
Midd: O: 71% D: 70%  Total: 72%
Wesleyan: O: 48% D: 58%  Total: 51%
Williams: O: 48% D: 51%  Total: 49 %
As Mole noted, we will know for sure which seniors are returning when the 2023 rosters come out.
These numbers, however, make me think Amherst and Bowdoin will be better this season than they were last year.
Hansen's list stopped at top 200 teams.

[GroundandPound]

Pat Coleman,
I was not suggesting Cepalia should not be rated above Woodring.  They are both great players.  I was expressing skepticism over the comment that placing Cepalia over Woodring was "laughable."
Regards,
GaP

[The Mole]

I would be curious to see the weightings/math involved. Trinity at 239/240 does not account for Fetter returning at QB, but I think top 4 RBs in terms of rushing yards are returning....Interesting data, thanks for sharing. Here are the full NESCAC breakdowns

Overall rank/240 Offense Defense Overall

1. Amherst 18/240 92.3% Offense, 81.2% Defense, 88.1% Overall
2. Bowdoin 21/240 92.7% Offense, 78% Defense, 87.1% Overall
3. Tufts 75/240 78.8% Offense, 68.3% Defense 74.8% Overall
4. Middlebury 95/240 71.7% Offense, 70.8% Defense, 71.4% Overall
5. Bates 174/240 62.2% Offense/39.7% Defense, 53.7% Overall
6. Wesleyan 182/240 47.8% Offense, 58.3% Defense, 51.8% Overall
7. Williams 189/240 48.1% Offense, 51% Defense, 49.2% Overall
8. Colby 203/240 22.3% Offense, 67.1% Defense, 45.5% Overall
9. Hamilton 226/240 32.3% Offense, 42.5% Defense, 36.2% Overall
10. Trinity 239/240 20% Offense, 13% Defense, 17.3% Overall

https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1628971383920242690/photo/1
More info.  This chart assumed all seniors were NOT coming back for this fall.

[GroundandPound]

Another stat I noticed on Hansen's twitter was that survey responses from about 40 D 3 programs indicated about 80% of all seniors in those programs are returning for 2023.
If The Mole finds out which seniors are returning for each NESCAC team, his NESCAC season preview may predict the season's final outcome to perfection. 

[Pat Coleman]

Pat Coleman,
I was not suggesting Cepalia should not be rated above Woodring.  They are both great players.  I was expressing skepticism over the comment that placing Cepalia over Woodring was "laughable."
Regards,
GaP

I wasn't saying you were -- I needed to quote you for context, or otherwise I was answering a question about Hansen with an answer about D3football.

[lumbercat]

If I asked why the NESCAC is off everyone's radar in terms of subjective D3 evaluations of teams or individual players in all these D3 polls and surveys the response is always......."you don't play anybody else so we don't know".

While most D3 teams play out of conference games and compete in post season  play the illusion that D3 Football play is a virtual round robin is false. Many programs very seldom play remote teams in other conferences.

My colleague on the NESCAC board today made a great statement "I HAVE EYES".

Any pro or college scout will tell you the evaluation of talent at all levels, College or Pro, is based on the Athlete. If you can recognize and evaluate football skill and talent at any level press releases and D3 stat sites don't matter.

These pundits sitting at desks reading stats or sporadic releases from SIDs while relying on D3 "coaches polls" that are spotty and undersubscribed are misinformed. They may get it right on Mount Union or North Central but beyond that it's a fraudulent guess.

[Scoops]

My apologies. I confused Woodring for Donovan-Jenkins, who was also a 1st team all-conference OL (arguably best in the league) and mysteriously left off the YARP list. But frankly I'm just honored that Lumber considers me a colleague! 

[SpringSt7]

If I asked why the NESCAC is off everyone's radar in terms of subjective D3 evaluations of teams or individual players in all these D3 polls and surveys the response is always......."you don't play anybody else so we don't know".

While most D3 teams play out of conference games and compete in post season  play the illusion that D3 Football play is a virtual round robin is false. Many programs very seldom play remote teams in other conferences.

My colleague on the NESCAC board today made a great statement "I HAVE EYES".

Any pro or college scout will tell you the evaluation of talent at all levels, College or Pro, is based on the Athlete. If you can recognize and evaluate football skill and talent at any level press releases and D3 stat sites don't matter.

These pundits sitting at desks reading stats or sporadic releases from SIDs while relying on D3 "coaches polls" that are spotty and undersubscribed are misinformed. They may get it right on Mount Union or North Central but beyond that it's a fraudulent guess.

I don't disagree with this but the pre-season awards tend to be very heavily weighted towards postseason performances, combined obviously with stats and other ways to judge production. There are just so many teams to cover in D3 that it is really hard to have an accurate scope on the entire body of work, so understandably the NESCAC does not get that boost in exposure. Personally I wish the NESCAC featured more prominently in All-American conversations but it's pretty reasonable to see why they do not.

[sigma one]

I've always thought that by analogy alone the NESCAC would do well in the D3 playoffs. The conference is successful in other sports where there is participation in post-season play, so can anyone tell me why they think the NESCAC would not do about equally well with football?
     And I've always had difficulty understanding why the NESCAC administrations exclude the teams from competing against outside competition--except for perhaps a general sense that there continues to be a bias v. football.  Heck, there are other contact sports that the NESCAC permits to compete in the national post season.   
      I'm realistic enough to know that just because I would like to see the NESCAC teams match up against inter-league competition that it will not happen within my lifetime.  That's probably a major reason why in the national awards the NESCAC receives less notice than it deserves.   So, one could say there is a bias both ways:  on one side against stepping outside the "safe" confines of the conference; on the other, OK, if that's your choice, why should your players be afforded the honors that they most likely deserve.  Someone wrote earlier on the site about major post (and pre)-season recognition going to teams that go deep into the playoffs (with a few outliers mostly decided statistically).  These are the players who have distinguished themselves v. the other top teams in D3.
      Just the opinion of an outsider who follows the NESCAC because he knows the head coach at Bowdoin.