FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

2023 Week #3 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome to week #3 in the NESCAC in the League where they "pay to play"...Congratulations to us on our 300th career win picking NESCAC games...NESCACMAN continues our excellent start in 2023 going 9-1 through 2 weeks...For possibly the first time ever, Bowdoin will be part of our featured GOTW...in other games we have the first game in the annual C-B-B Series as UBates hosts the Mules, Hartford State hosts the offensively challenged Lord Mammoths, the Alexander Hamilton's travel to Middletown to face Wes, and the Jumbo's are at home against the young Ephs...Onto this week's games:

Amwurst College at Hartford State College:  After the Lord Mammoths barely beat an equally woeful Hamilton squad, they will face a dose of reality as they travel down Route 91 to face Hartford State...This game could get very ugly as one of the league's best defenses faces a historically bad Amwurst offense (Last in points scored, 9th in total offense)...We don't think the Lord Mammoth defense, which we think is not horrible, will be able to keep this game within striking distance ...Keys To Victory ("KTV") for Amwurst: We see absolutely no scenario in which the Lord Mammoths win this game...a victory by Amwurst would possibly be the biggest upset in recent NESCAC history...KTV for Hartford State: Show-up...play anyone other than the water boy, student-manager, and the chain gang and they win ...Overview: We'd bet the house on this one....Hartford State by a ton.

Hartford State 38 Amwurst 0
Point Spread: Hartford State -28
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Steady rain in the AM. Showers continuing in the afternoon. High of 67.

Hamilton College at Wesleyan University: Wes off of an excellent win in their home opener against Middlebury play another game at home against the Alexander Hamilton's...Wes is one of three remaining unbeaten teams in the NESCAC...Wes does not lose at home and Hamilton is off to another tough start to their season at 0-2...this game has all of the makings of a trap game...Wes can't look beyond this game and needs to continue to take care of business...Wes getting turnovers, dominating time of possession, and seems to be more disciplined than they have been in past years...Wes QB Niko Candido is one the best offensive player in the league right now...Wes WR Thomas Elkhoury leads the NESCAC in receptions with 19 and his teammate, Chase Wilson, is 4th with 11...not a great match-up for HAM as they are last against the pass in the league and  they face the #2 ranked passing offense in Wesleyan...KTV for Wesleyan: Use their superior speed on the outside to burn the Conts deep and set-up the running game...continue to force turnovers...KTV for the Alexander Hamilton's: Play ball control and run the ball (2nd best running game in the NESCAC)...don't turn the ball over...force bad Wes penalties...Overview: This Wes team is deep, fast, and young. The more they win, the more confidence they'll get. We think they take care of business at home.

Wesleyan 34 Hamilton 14
Point Spread: Wesleyan -21
Weather: Rain early then Cloudy with periods of rain in the afternoon. High of 66.

Williams College at Tufts University:  Tufts righted the ship against UBates and was dramatically improved, albeit against an undermanned Kittie squad...Tufts running game was impressive running for over 300 yards as a team ...QB Berlutti is completing <50% of his passes...Ephs coming off an embarrassing performance getting shut-out for the first time in years by the Bowdoin Polars...Ephs need to get better converting third downs; 2 of 14 is not going to cut it...KTV for Williams: Run the ball effectively to set up high percentage passes for their FY QB..protect the QB...defensively they need to keep this a low-scoring affair...stop the run to force Berlutti to pass on obvious passing downs......KTV for Tufts: Get the passing game going set-up by their league leading running game......Defensively, stop Fischetti to force the Ephs to throw. Overview: Not a great matchup for the Ephs. Tufts plays well at home, even during the day.

Tufts 31 Williams 14 
Point Spread: Tufts -17
Weather: Showers early then Cloudy in the afternoon. High of 63.

Colby College at University of Bates (Lewiston Campus)(night game): Game one of the 2023 C-B-B series...Both teams looking for their first win...UBates last won the C-B-B in 2017...The Mules won 3 straight titles in 2018, 2019 and 2021...Both teams have struggled thus far in 2023...Both teams are in the bottom 3 in the league in total offense and total defense...Something has to give as UBates is last in the NESCAC in run defense while Colby has averaged 23 yards/game on the ground...KTV for Colby: Need to figure out the running game...force UBates to turn the ball over...KTV for UBates: Stop the run and force Colby to pass...continue to get experience...get the home crowd behind them...Overview: We think the Mules are better than they have shown so far and the more experienced team gets a narrow win in this rivalry game on the road at night. Should be a great atmosphere.

Colby 21 UBates 17 
Point Spread: Colby -3
Weather: A few clouds. High of 47.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Bowdoin College at Middlebury College:  Polars on a roll! Undefeated Bowdoin (for the first time since 2005) heads to Vermont...Bowdoin has only started a season 3-0 twice since World War II; unfortunately, it's not going to happen this year...Middlebury has won 16 of the last 20 including the last 8 in a row against the Polars...Bowdoin has not beaten the Panthers since 2009...defense has been the story for Bowdoin thus far in 2023 (first in the League in scoring D and 2nd in yards allowed)...questions remain for the Polars-have they really played anyone yet?...we will find out if they are real this Saturday as they face a very good Middlebury team...KTV for Bowdoin: Challenge the Panthers to run the ball, which they have had trouble doing...running game needs to get going for Bowdoin to create balance ...KTV for Middlebury: Get a strong pass rush and force Boel to move around a bit...stop Eden...get some semblance of a running game going... Overview: Long trip for Bowdoin....we think reality sets in for the Polars....Middlebury has too many good players to "loose" at home to the upstart Polars. 

Middlebury 24 Bowdoin 13
Point Spread: Middlebury -7
Weather: Sunshine and clouds mixed. High of 72.

NESCACMAN's Picks (winners):
2023 Season: 9-1
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 301-94 (.762 winning percentage)

Follow us on Twitter @realnescacman

[lumbercat]

Nescacman 9-1 this year with his picks.
Now, if Draftkings would just post D3 lines we could ride his coattails on those picks.

[Nescacman]

Nescacman 9-1 this year with his picks.
Now, if Draftkings would just post D3 lines we could ride his coattails on those picks.

Lumber, there is always "side action"...

[Nescacman]

Wesleyan moves game v. Hamilton to Citrin Field:

https://athletics.wesleyan.edu/news/2023/9/29/football-moves-week-3-home-game-against-hamilton-to-citrin-field.aspx

They have hosted one game there in 2018 v. Bowdoin. Wes won that game 24-0.

[Pat Coleman]

I didn't see in that story anything that spoke as to why it was moved.

[Nescacman]

I didn't see in that story anything that spoke as to why it was moved.

Torrential rain storms in the Northeast today. Oldest continuously used field in America was deemed unplayable for tomorrow's game.

[nescac1]

Keys for Williams to succeed today:

(1) The pass rush has been excellent through the first two games, especially Cameron Smith, who's been awesome.  That needs to continue to avoid giving too much time for Berlutti to pick them apart. 

(2) The pass coverage (continuing from last year) continues to be an Achilles heels.  Receivers have actually not generally been that open, but they have been beating Eph DBs to contested deep balls in close quarters (and kudos to the Boehl for putting passes right on the money and all the Bowdoin receivers for making really tough catches last week).  If does not get easier this week, as Tufts' big, strong receivers present a particular challenge on that front, and the Williams DBs need to be very aggressive making plays on the ball or if not hitting receivers hard as the ball is caught without getting penalized.  Easier said than done, especially with a small, young defensive back group, so the pass rush really has to come through. 

(3) Williams has had some very strange play-calling especially last week.  I realize there is a young QB, but they need to keep the defenses guessing with more option runs and screen action and just more varied play calling overall.  Twice Williams got into the red zone and twice they totally abandoned the run against Bowdoin last week, which I did not understand.  And of course, there have been disastrous fourth down decisions (and executions, to be fair!) on the Williams side of the field the last two weeks, leading to two TDs.  Just can't do that to a defense which has mostly played pretty well overall.  Figuring out the long snapper situation would help! 

(4) McHugh wasn't great last week, as he was frazzled by the pass rush and high on some balls, but it also wasn't his fault much of the time.  The OL, after dominating against Colby, had trouble against Bowdoin's speed.  They need to give him more time.  And his receivers need to help him out by pulling down some more tough balls that aren't perfectly thrown.  The Ephs seem to lack any sort of big, physical possession receivers (HB, FB, TE, big WR types) who can make some tough short catches to keep the chains moving.  There are some young guys on the roster who I'd like to see get a shot in that role as the season moves along, FB Marvan, WR Stahelski, and/or TEs Jaffee, Guy, Bongo or Baker.  But the passing game can't be all deep routes to small speed receivers, just too hard to convert those plays regularly even if Williams has hit on a few. 

(5) Hopefully Fischetti's work load can gradually increase but the run game can't be all him.  McHugh has to have more designed runs this week (and they need to be blocked more effectively when he does, maybe with a FB/HB leading the way which often helped Maimaron).  And Williams has to find another TB who can get positive yards when Fischetti is resting - maybe one of the frosh RBs on the roster (Marvan especially whenever healthy) can get a shot.  Right now, when Fischetti isn't involved, the offense looks pretty ugly.  Too much pressure on one guy.

Injury watch for the Ephs -- Williams has been a bit banged up on defense, with key players Papadopoulos, Osayimwen, and Hemmer either out entirely or leaving games early and i think a few other guys out.  Having a few of these guys at full strength would be helpful.  Osayimwen I'm guessing is a multi-week injury from the look of it but who knows. 

[nescac1]

I know it's D3 football, D3 refs but my god Tufts got quite a ridiculous gift on a TD reception in which the receiver was bobbling the ball while still running out of the endzone, never actually caught it at all (dropped the ball and it actually hit the ground) and somehow a ref standing right there called it a TD.  Unreal.  Refs have been bad all game but that was beyond atrocious. 

Williams dropped what should have been a deep TD of its own and those two plays are the difference in the game so far. 

Looking at the Amherst-Trinity score I see we can look forward to another week of too-many-second-half-carries for Will Kirby discourse ...

[JumboJerry]

Pat Walsh has now become the leading scorer in NESCAC history. #PatWalsh

[Bantam4life]

Bantams looks incredibly strong right now. Firing on all cylinders. Gonna be hard to beat this years Bantams. Another dominant performance in Hartford

[Scoops]

Does he do FGs too or am I missing something? I thought he was the punter?

Pat Walsh has now become the leading scorer in NESCAC history. #PatWalsh

[JumboJerry]

Does he do FGs too or am I missing something? I thought he was the punter?

Pat Walsh has now become the leading scorer in NESCAC history. #PatWalsh

He does it all! #PatWalsh

[JumboJerry]

Hearing some of the players from Tufts will be at "The Pub" tonight signing autographs after a big win against Williams. "The Pub" is also offering half off if you mention JumboJerry at the bar!

[LochNescac]

Does he do FGs too or am I missing something? I thought he was the punter?

Pat Walsh has now become the leading scorer in NESCAC history. #PatWalsh

Not missing anything....

Jerry is....

[Nescacman]

Keys for Williams to succeed today:

(1) The pass rush has been excellent through the first two games, especially Cameron Smith, who's been awesome.  That needs to continue to avoid giving too much time for Berlutti to pick them apart. 

(2) The pass coverage (continuing from last year) continues to be an Achilles heels.  Receivers have actually not generally been that open, but they have been beating Eph DBs to contested deep balls in close quarters (and kudos to the Boehl for putting passes right on the money and all the Bowdoin receivers for making really tough catches last week).  If does not get easier this week, as Tufts' big, strong receivers present a particular challenge on that front, and the Williams DBs need to be very aggressive making plays on the ball or if not hitting receivers hard as the ball is caught without getting penalized.  Easier said than done, especially with a small, young defensive back group, so the pass rush really has to come through. 

(3) Williams has had some very strange play-calling especially last week.  I realize there is a young QB, but they need to keep the defenses guessing with more option runs and screen action and just more varied play calling overall.  Twice Williams got into the red zone and twice they totally abandoned the run against Bowdoin last week, which I did not understand.  And of course, there have been disastrous fourth down decisions (and executions, to be fair!) on the Williams side of the field the last two weeks, leading to two TDs.  Just can't do that to a defense which has mostly played pretty well overall.  Figuring out the long snapper situation would help! 

(4) McHugh wasn't great last week, as he was frazzled by the pass rush and high on some balls, but it also wasn't his fault much of the time.  The OL, after dominating against Colby, had trouble against Bowdoin's speed.  They need to give him more time.  And his receivers need to help him out by pulling down some more tough balls that aren't perfectly thrown.  The Ephs seem to lack any sort of big, physical possession receivers (HB, FB, TE, big WR types) who can make some tough short catches to keep the chains moving.  There are some young guys on the roster who I'd like to see get a shot in that role as the season moves along, FB Marvan, WR Stahelski, and/or TEs Jaffee, Guy, Bongo or Baker.  But the passing game can't be all deep routes to small speed receivers, just too hard to convert those plays regularly even if Williams has hit on a few. 

(5) Hopefully Fischetti's work load can gradually increase but the run game can't be all him.  McHugh has to have more designed runs this week (and they need to be blocked more effectively when he does, maybe with a FB/HB leading the way which often helped Maimaron).  And Williams has to find another TB who can get positive yards when Fischetti is resting - maybe one of the frosh RBs on the roster (Marvan especially whenever healthy) can get a shot.  Right now, when Fischetti isn't involved, the offense looks pretty ugly.  Too much pressure on one guy.

Injury watch for the Ephs -- Williams has been a bit banged up on defense, with key players Papadopoulos, Osayimwen, and Hemmer either out entirely or leaving games early and i think a few other guys out.  Having a few of these guys at full strength would be helpful.  Osayimwen I'm guessing is a multi-week injury from the look of it but who knows.

Nescac1 our friend...we have you at 0 for 5 on your email yesterday:

1. 0 sacks for the Eph pass rush....fail for the pass rush.
2. Berlutti was 23 of 33 for 265 yards, 3 TDs and zero picks. We'd say that was a fail for the Williams' secondary.
3. Ephs for 0 for 1 on 4th down and made some head scratching play calls again in this one. Fail on that one.
4. McHugh was painfully bad in this one. 5 of 17 for 75 yards with a TD and a pick. They did try the short passing game (4.4 yards per pass attempt) but that clearly did not work. Fail.
5. Fischetti...14 carries for 138 yards (long carry of 61 yards). The rest of the Eph ball carriers....14 carries for 39 yards (long carry of 6 yards). Fail.

8 first downs, 252 total yards of offense, 75 yards passing, 1 of 10 on third down, and 19 minutes of possession. We sure hope Wes doesn't catch whatever disease has affected the rest of the Little 3's offenses.