FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

I would put Williams at #3. They're the best rushing offense, and I'm not going to knock their offensive line for the teams lack of legitimate weapons in the pass game.

Williams is the best rushing offense because they had the best RB in the league by a country mile and now he's out for a while. They have a nice line but I would expect those numbers to dip in the second half.

Here's a question Spring...If the Ephs lose Fischetti for an extended period of time, do they win another game this year.? He is their primary/only offensive weapon and accounts for almost 50% of their total yardage to-date in 2023...they have no passing game....and their next man up RB (Jon Oris) averages 3.3 ypc with a long of 15 yards on the season...not ideal for Williams any way you slice it.

I thought they had a Freshman Marvin who was supposed to be RB of future is he hurt or are they not playing him ?

Chuck, Marvan has exactly 0 carries for the Ephs thus far in '23...

[lumbercat]

Colby over Amherst 3
Williams over Hamilton 4
Tufts over Wesleyan 2
Bowdoin over Bates 5
Middlebury over Trinity 1
(5 most confident 1 least confident)

I usually don't make predictions but here goes
Colby over Amherst by 10
Tufts over Wesleyan by 3
Trinity over Midd by 17
Williams over Hamilton by 9

We noticed you're missing a game, Lumber! Come on, even we pick the game involving our alma matter! 

Yeah, I know- what can I say, I'm a Coynster, he's our guy but Im not picking this one.

[Nescacman]

2023 Week #5 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome to week #5 in the NESCAC in the League where they "pay to play"...NESCACMAN went 3-2 in week #4 to take us to 17-3 for the season...This week's GOTW features the Tufts Jumbo's hosting Wesleyan ...second week in a row the Jumbo's have been part of our featured GOTW...in other games we have the Lord Mammoths hosting Colby, Middlebury travelling to Hartford State in an important game, the Ephs travelling to Clinton to face Hamilton, and Bowdoin hosting UBates in a C-B-B battle...Onto this week's slate:

Colby College at Amwurst College: Colby NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 6/Total Defense: 8; Amwurst NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 10/Total Defense: 7...Amwurst's offense continues to underperform while the defense is improving...Lord Mammoths only running for 66 yards per game...the Lord Mammoths coming off a win against UBates, will have their hands full with a resurgent Colby squad...if Colby plays like they did last week against Wes, could be a long day for the LMs...Keys to Victory ("KTV") for Amwurst: The Lord Mammoths need to keep the score low and force Colby to turn over the ball, something they did not do last week against Wes...the LM defense needs to continue stepping up...KTV for Colby: Get Smart going on the ground and throw to Sawyer...Players to watch: QB Thomas Keeling (COL), WR Jack Sawyer (COL), RB Keon Smart (COL), LB Julian Young (COL), LB Luke Harmon (AMH)...Overview: We think Colby keeps it going with win #3 in a close game...LM defense keeps it close.

Colby 20 Amwurst 14
Point Spread: Colby -3
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Overcast. High of 59.

Middlebury College at Hartford State College: Middlebury NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 4/Total Defense: 2; Hartford State NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 1/Total Defense: 1...The Hartford State Roosters had a tougher time of it last week against HAM than many thought (us included)...what's at stake: loss for MID and that effectively ends their chances at winning the NESCAC this year; win for HS and they are one step closer to another NESCAC title...Roosters averaging more than 43 points per game...MID will have to play at their best to have a chance, especially in the Coop... KTV for Middlebury: Kennon needs to return to 2022 form and have his best game of the year...Defense has played well and they will need to play well against HS...they need to get to Fetter and put some pressure on him...KTV for Hartford: Force Kennon to make bad throws...stop the Pants running game...Players to watch: QB Cole Kennon (MID), DL Tomas Kenary (MID), DB Rocco Stolla (MID), RB Tyler DiNapoli (HS), WR Sean Clapp (HS), LB Michael Masse (HS)...Overview: Hartford State gets win #5 but MID plays them tough until the 4th quarter.

Hartford State 34 Middlebury 21 
Point Spread: Hartford State -14
Weather: Cloudy early with showers in the afternoon. High of 57.

Williams College at Hamilton College:  Williams NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-9/Total Defense-6; Hamilton NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-8/Total Defense-9...Both teams are struggling on offense and not throwing the ball well (9th and 10th in the NESCAC) ...ironically, neither team defends the pass well either (9th and 10th in the NESCAC) ...Ephs offense continues to struggle (20 points in last 3 weeks) and they need to get better at converting third downs  (25%-good for last in the NESCAC)...Ephs only averaging 90 yards a game passing and complete 39% of their passes...However, Ephs lead the league in rushing averaging almost 187 yards per game...they will miss injured starting TB Mario Fischetti in the ground game...KTV for Williams: Pound and ground without Fischetti leading the way (leads the NESCAC in rushing)...stop the run to force the young Hamilton QB to throw ...KTV for Hamilton: Get Nate Wildman going on the ground...stop Fishcetti's replacements and force Williams to try to throw...Players to watch: TB Nate Wildman (HAM)...Overview: Winnable game for both teams...Can the Ephs get the win on the road? We don't think so...Alexander Hamilton's win a close one in Clinton.   

Hamilton 21 Williams 17
Point Spread: Hamilton -3
Weather: Cloudy with a slight chance of rain. High of 55.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Bowdoin College: UBates NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-7/Total Defense-10; Bowdoin NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-5/Total Defense-3...Polar's lost their second game in a row on a rainy night in Brunswick ...Bowdoin took a step back in that game against Tufts...offense did not look very good...125th meeting between these two schools (10th longest rivalry in D3) ...UBates has won 10 of the last 11 meetings...UBates looking for their first win...Andrew Boel leads the NESCAC in passing yards...KTV for UBates: Get pressure on Boel...force turnovers...give Bosselait time to throw...KTV for Bowdoin: Avoid turnovers...protect Boel...stop the UBates passing game...Players to watch: QB Andrew Boel (BOW), WR Colton Fahey (BOW), LB Max Jacobs (BOW), QB Colton Bosselait (UBates), TB Ryan Lynskey (UBates), WR Sergio Beltran (UBates)...Overview: Despite not playing well against Tufts, Polars have more experience and more talent than UBates right now....We think UBates fights hard but ultimately succumbs to the Polars in Brunswick. 

Bowdoin 28 UBates 21
Point Spread: Bowdoin -10
Weather: Generally sunny with a few clouds. High of 62.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Wesleyan University at Tufts University (night game): Wesleyan NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-3/Total Defense-4; Tufts NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-2/Total Defense-5...Wesleyan has won the last 3 times these teams have played and the last 6 games have been decided by one score or less...Wes coming off their first loss of the year...Tufts looked very strong against an over-matched Polar squad on the road...Wes needs to clean-up their special teams this week and do a better job of protecting QB Nico Candido...Candido leads the NESCAC with 12 TD passes and WR Chase Wilson has 6 TDs over the last two games...DB Wesleyan Abraham leads the NESCAC in INTs...Tufts is second in the NESCAC in rushing...Wesleyan is second in rushing defense...Tufts WR Jaden Richardson leads the league in scoring...Tufts has only allowed 1 sack all year...KTV for Wesleyan: Pass the ball effectively downfield....O-line needs to give Candido time...defense needs to stop Berlutti, Richardson, and Reece...KTV for Tufts: Continue to run the ball effectively...get to Candido ...Players to watch: QB Niko Candido (WES), WR Chase Wilson, DL Declan Welch (Wes), RB Chartellis Reece (TUF), QB Michael Berlutti (TUF), DT Ed Iuteri (TUF), ...Overview: These games are always tight...We think Wes wins in a mild upset on the road and keeps their NESCAC title hopes alive.

Wesleyan 31 Tufts 28
Point Spread: Tufts -3
Weather: Cloudy, slight chance of rain shower. Low of 47.

NESCACMAN's Picks (winners):
2023 Season: 17-3
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 309-96 (.763 winning percentage)

Follow us on Twitter @realnescacman

[Charlie]

I would put Williams at #3. They're the best rushing offense, and I'm not going to knock their offensive line for the teams lack of legitimate weapons in the pass game.

Williams is the best rushing offense because they had the best RB in the league by a country mile and now he's out for a while. They have a nice line but I would expect those numbers to dip in the second half.

Here's a question Spring...If the Ephs lose Fischetti for an extended period of time, do they win another game this year.? He is their primary/only offensive weapon and accounts for almost 50% of their total yardage to-date in 2023...they have no passing game....and their next man up RB (Jon Oris) averages 3.3 ypc with a long of 15 yards on the season...not ideal for Williams any way you slice it.

I thought they had a Freshman Marvin who was supposed to be RB of future is he hurt or are they not playing him ?

Chuck, Marvan has exactly 0 carries for the Ephs thus far in '23...

I understnd that is he hurt not playing or not ready. Seems like the year is wash for them and if not hurt get all these kids playing time and experience.

[jumpshot]

I've seen it many times before in various competitions against numerous opponents ... in this instance Panther Pride trumps Hartford State
"football arrangements."

[SpringSt7]

I would put Williams at #3. They're the best rushing offense, and I'm not going to knock their offensive line for the teams lack of legitimate weapons in the pass game.

Williams is the best rushing offense because they had the best RB in the league by a country mile and now he's out for a while. They have a nice line but I would expect those numbers to dip in the second half.

Here's a question Spring...If the Ephs lose Fischetti for an extended period of time, do they win another game this year.? He is their primary/only offensive weapon and accounts for almost 50% of their total yardage to-date in 2023...they have no passing game....and their next man up RB (Jon Oris) averages 3.3 ypc with a long of 15 yards on the season...not ideal for Williams any way you slice it.

I thought they had a Freshman Marvin who was supposed to be RB of future is he hurt or are they not playing him ?

Chuck, Marvan has exactly 0 carries for the Ephs thus far in '23...

Circling back on this - obviously they won today, although it wasn't pretty. McHugh was much better and they got enough out of Oris on the ground (3.3 ypg again though) and two big receptions, one from Oris and one from Sam Jaffe who turned a slant into the eventual game winning 55 yd TD. Wasn't pretty but nothing is going to be pretty this year. They can still get to 5 wins but it will be tough, really tough.

Fischetti is better than the O-Line makes him look and I can say that with relative certainty because when they had Maimaron, Vaughn, Nicholas, etc, dominating the league leaders list in YPG, they ran a lot different than Fischetti did - north/south, hitting big holes, finishing runs. Fischetti has a dynanicism, shiftiness, and burst, that none of them had - including Nicholas, who was phenomenal, a violent and explosive runner north/south but much less effective at changing directions. And yes, Fischetti is better than Eden, I'm sorry, he just is. We stink this year - let us have this one.

Hate to be on this side of a Charlie vs. Nescacman but Marvan is still the RB of the future and will (hopefully) contribute greatly in his college career, but he got injured during the offseason and has not been healthy at all. Point Charlie.

[lumbercat]

Wish Candido would run the ball every now and then- it's over now I guess. Tufts a much better team than we thought after getting pasted by Trinity.
Mid beats Trinity----------coaching? game plan?weather?
Wow- gotta love this conference.

[Nescacman]

Yes, Wesleyan got their butts kicked. Complete beat down down in all three phases of the game. Congratulations to University of Tufts on the a$$kicking. And like the good sports that we are, we shook Coach Hauser's hand after the game and congratulated him and the Jumbo's on the win. Unlike, the Lord Mammoth and Eph faithful (other than Spring and nescac1), we won't run and hide when we are down.

On a happier note, big congratulations to HCOF Mandigo and the Panthers on the signature win today. Although we didn't not pick them, anytime you go into the Coop and beat Hartford State it's huge. That result made an otherwise miserable day a little brighter.

[Scoops]

Yikes. I'm sure after that game QB Candido certainly doesn't think his offensive line is Top-3. That poor kid took a beating. Kudos to him for trying to stand in and deliver, but he was left out to dry by his OL and his entire supporting cast tonight. Debated turning off the stream after halftime. Wesleyan just didn't look like they came to play.

[BigKat]

Classy response Nescacman. You're correct as that was a thorough plucking of the Cards feathers all three phases. Hope they rebound next week.

A lot of football left but it certainly looks like a 3 horse race now.

[SpringSt7]

Tufts - Middlebury Week 9 just got really, really interesting. Both teams' toughest remaining game is Colby, Middlebury has to travel to Waterville but seems more likely than not that both teams will show up for the last game of the season at 7-1.

[Charlie]

Trinity Game

First all great win by Middlebury and they completely out coached Trinity. The entire Middlebury staff executed game plan to perfection and blue print for beating Trinity.

Defensively

I thought Trinity front seven played a great game limiting Middlebury run game however there lack of pass rush only rushing 3 to protect there inept secondary hurt them all day. They should have had designated pass rushers in when Middlebury was in obvious passing situations. Trinity for several years now has struggled at the secondary position and constantly gives up the big play. The safties had a terrible game and CB could not cover obvious slant and In routes. I find all of this Odd becuase the HC is the secondary Coach and this has for many years been the weakness of the defense. Obvious defensive situations the Coaches beamed out. On the last series how do you let up an out and up with no saftey help inexcusable. It also appeared that Trinity relied on upperclassman hurt or otherwise to carry out the plan and did not utlize there depth and younger faster talent experience or not.

Offensively

Middlebury copied the Colby game plan running a cover two and daring Trinity to throw deep. Trinity has notoriously liked the long ball and Middlebury defense plan was designed to allow short passes rather then giving up the long ball. They were going to allow the run which Trinity did and was successful. In the end Middlebury seemed to know that Trinity would be impatient and keep trying to force the ball down the field. Had Trinity taken what the defense was giving them they would have scored instead of making poor decisions trying dumb fake punts and having a back up kicker who has a terrible make percentage.

Lastly Middlebury never blitzed they dropped 8 in coverage and rushed three DL. so that means Trinity had 5 OL into block and kept the RB in as well on numerous plays that is two blockers for each DL and Middlebury still got pressure on Trinity QB.

Lastly Trinity OC Coach who has coached long enough knows that when you are on oppoents 2 yard line with 10 seconds and no time outs knows that you cannot run the ball and why would you with one of the best QB in NESCAC. You would have him roll out with run and throw option and if it is not there you have time on fourth down. The game ending play was a terible call and Trinity had many other head scratching calls on offense the OC & HC for Trinity had a bad game.

[JumboJerry]

2023 Week #5 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome to week #5 in the NESCAC in the League where they "pay to play"...NESCACMAN went 3-2 in week #4 to take us to 17-3 for the season...This week's GOTW features the Tufts Jumbo's hosting Wesleyan ...second week in a row the Jumbo's have been part of our featured GOTW...in other games we have the Lord Mammoths hosting Colby, Middlebury travelling to Hartford State in an important game, the Ephs travelling to Clinton to face Hamilton, and Bowdoin hosting UBates in a C-B-B battle...Onto this week's slate:

Colby College at Amwurst College: Colby NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 6/Total Defense: 8; Amwurst NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 10/Total Defense: 7...Amwurst's offense continues to underperform while the defense is improving...Lord Mammoths only running for 66 yards per game...the Lord Mammoths coming off a win against UBates, will have their hands full with a resurgent Colby squad...if Colby plays like they did last week against Wes, could be a long day for the LMs...Keys to Victory ("KTV") for Amwurst: The Lord Mammoths need to keep the score low and force Colby to turn over the ball, something they did not do last week against Wes...the LM defense needs to continue stepping up...KTV for Colby: Get Smart going on the ground and throw to Sawyer...Players to watch: QB Thomas Keeling (COL), WR Jack Sawyer (COL), RB Keon Smart (COL), LB Julian Young (COL), LB Luke Harmon (AMH)...Overview: We think Colby keeps it going with win #3 in a close game...LM defense keeps it close.

Colby 20 Amwurst 14
Point Spread: Colby -3
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Overcast. High of 59.

Middlebury College at Hartford State College: Middlebury NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 4/Total Defense: 2; Hartford State NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 1/Total Defense: 1...The Hartford State Roosters had a tougher time of it last week against HAM than many thought (us included)...what's at stake: loss for MID and that effectively ends their chances at winning the NESCAC this year; win for HS and they are one step closer to another NESCAC title...Roosters averaging more than 43 points per game...MID will have to play at their best to have a chance, especially in the Coop... KTV for Middlebury: Kennon needs to return to 2022 form and have his best game of the year...Defense has played well and they will need to play well against HS...they need to get to Fetter and put some pressure on him...KTV for Hartford: Force Kennon to make bad throws...stop the Pants running game...Players to watch: QB Cole Kennon (MID), DL Tomas Kenary (MID), DB Rocco Stolla (MID), RB Tyler DiNapoli (HS), WR Sean Clapp (HS), LB Michael Masse (HS)...Overview: Hartford State gets win #5 but MID plays them tough until the 4th quarter.

Hartford State 34 Middlebury 21 
Point Spread: Hartford State -14
Weather: Cloudy early with showers in the afternoon. High of 57.

Williams College at Hamilton College:  Williams NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-9/Total Defense-6; Hamilton NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-8/Total Defense-9...Both teams are struggling on offense and not throwing the ball well (9th and 10th in the NESCAC) ...ironically, neither team defends the pass well either (9th and 10th in the NESCAC) ...Ephs offense continues to struggle (20 points in last 3 weeks) and they need to get better at converting third downs  (25%-good for last in the NESCAC)...Ephs only averaging 90 yards a game passing and complete 39% of their passes...However, Ephs lead the league in rushing averaging almost 187 yards per game...they will miss injured starting TB Mario Fischetti in the ground game...KTV for Williams: Pound and ground without Fischetti leading the way (leads the NESCAC in rushing)...stop the run to force the young Hamilton QB to throw ...KTV for Hamilton: Get Nate Wildman going on the ground...stop Fishcetti's replacements and force Williams to try to throw...Players to watch: TB Nate Wildman (HAM)...Overview: Winnable game for both teams...Can the Ephs get the win on the road? We don't think so...Alexander Hamilton's win a close one in Clinton.   

Hamilton 21 Williams 17
Point Spread: Hamilton -3
Weather: Cloudy with a slight chance of rain. High of 55.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Bowdoin College: UBates NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-7/Total Defense-10; Bowdoin NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-5/Total Defense-3...Polar's lost their second game in a row on a rainy night in Brunswick ...Bowdoin took a step back in that game against Tufts...offense did not look very good...125th meeting between these two schools (10th longest rivalry in D3) ...UBates has won 10 of the last 11 meetings...UBates looking for their first win...Andrew Boel leads the NESCAC in passing yards...KTV for UBates: Get pressure on Boel...force turnovers...give Bosselait time to throw...KTV for Bowdoin: Avoid turnovers...protect Boel...stop the UBates passing game...Players to watch: QB Andrew Boel (BOW), WR Colton Fahey (BOW), LB Max Jacobs (BOW), QB Colton Bosselait (UBates), TB Ryan Lynskey (UBates), WR Sergio Beltran (UBates)...Overview: Despite not playing well against Tufts, Polars have more experience and more talent than UBates right now....We think UBates fights hard but ultimately succumbs to the Polars in Brunswick. 

Bowdoin 28 UBates 21
Point Spread: Bowdoin -10
Weather: Generally sunny with a few clouds. High of 62.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Wesleyan University at Tufts University (night game): Wesleyan NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-3/Total Defense-4; Tufts NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense-2/Total Defense-5...Wesleyan has won the last 3 times these teams have played and the last 6 games have been decided by one score or less...Wes coming off their first loss of the year...Tufts looked very strong against an over-matched Polar squad on the road...Wes needs to clean-up their special teams this week and do a better job of protecting QB Nico Candido...Candido leads the NESCAC with 12 TD passes and WR Chase Wilson has 6 TDs over the last two games...DB Wesleyan Abraham leads the NESCAC in INTs...Tufts is second in the NESCAC in rushing...Wesleyan is second in rushing defense...Tufts WR Jaden Richardson leads the league in scoring...Tufts has only allowed 1 sack all year...KTV for Wesleyan: Pass the ball effectively downfield....O-line needs to give Candido time...defense needs to stop Berlutti, Richardson, and Reece...KTV for Tufts: Continue to run the ball effectively...get to Candido ...Players to watch: QB Niko Candido (WES), WR Chase Wilson, DL Declan Welch (Wes), RB Chartellis Reece (TUF), QB Michael Berlutti (TUF), DT Ed Iuteri (TUF), ...Overview: These games are always tight...We think Wes wins in a mild upset on the road and keeps their NESCAC title hopes alive.

Wesleyan 31 Tufts 28
Point Spread: Tufts -3
Weather: Cloudy, slight chance of rain shower. Low of 47.

NESCACMAN's Picks (winners):
2023 Season: 17-3
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 309-96 (.763 winning percentage)

Follow us on Twitter @realnescacman

I agree on the Wesleyan pick. Don't think it will be close though. Think this Cards offense will be too much for the Jumbos. Jumbos offense will also struggle. 49-14 Wesleyan

[JEFFFAN]

Hard pressed to criticize EJ Mills on defensive strategy, but in the final drive the Jeffs did not blitz Colby once despite a defensive line that was visibly exhausted.  Provided no pressure on Colby as it marched downfield for the winning field goal.   Defense played well otherwise but I sure wish the coaches had called some pressure blitzes rather than sitting back.   Offense is the Amherst offense - not much.  I sure hope that Mills and the coaching staff are out there recruiting offensive linemen as this year's edition generates no push for the rushing game.

[The Mole]

Congrats to Tufts for outcoaching, outplaying, outhustling and dominating Wesleyan last night. Very strange year with Bantams blowing out Tufts, Tufts blowing out Wesleyan, but Wesleyan beating Middlebury who beat Trinity. The one game at a time mentality has to be reinforced, it is evident that anything can happen in this league this year!

6 teams with winning records, but 10/21 tilts only features one game between teams that both have winning slates:

Tufts (4-1) @ Amherst (2-3)
Bowdoin (3-2) @ Wesleyan (3-2)
Bates (0-5) @ Middlebury (4-1)
Hamilton (0-5) @ Colby (3-2)
Trinity (4-1) @ Williams (2-3)