FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

2023 Week #8 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome to Week #8 in the NESCAC in "The League where they pay to play"...NESCACMAN was 1-1 in week #7 to take us to 24-8 for the season...And down the homestretch they come!!! Full schedule of games as four teams vie for the 2023 NESCAC Football Championship... GOTW features our #1 ranked team versus the suddenly hot Conts from Hamilton...Tufts will look to bounce back against the Mules, Bowdoin faces the reeling Lord Mammoths, UBates still looking for win #1 on the road against Hartford State, and Wes tries to win the Little 3 in Williamstown.

Onto this week's games:

Colby College at Tufts University: Colby NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense 8/Total Defense 6; Tufts NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense 2/Total Defense 2...Tufts is coming one of the worst collapses in recent NESCAC memory...The question is which Mule team shows up (or which Jumbo team shows up, for that matter)...Senior Day at Tufts as 23 seniors and 4 grad students finish their careers for the Jumbo's (or most of them do, anyway)...Tufts has won the last 8 games in this series dating back to 2013...In a quirk due to Colby's off week, both teams last game was a loss to Hamilton...Tufts, led by RB Chartellis Reese and QB Michael Berlutti, leads the NESCAC in rushing...OPOTY candidate QB Michael Berlutti leads the NESCAC in TD passes with 18, against only 2 INTs...Colby has been middle of the road offensively and defensively...KTV for Colby: Establish the running game and control the clock...figure out a way to get some pressure on the Berlutti...Colby has actually played better on the road than they have at home this year (2-1)...KTV for Tufts: They need to finish the game strong, as opposed to what they did last week...Tufts has been good at home (3-0) and they need a win in their last home game of 2023 to make their game against MID next week meaningful (for Tufts at least; a loss and they are in all practicality eliminated from NESCAC title contention)...Tufts needs to improve and clean-up their special teams play which has been their Achilles heal this year...Players to watch:  QB Thomas Keeling (COL), WR Jack Sawyer (COL), RB Keon Smart (COL), LB Julian Young (COL), Michael Berlutti (TUF), WR Jaden Richardson (TUF), RB Chartellis Reece (TUF)...Overview: If the good version of Colby shows up, this game could be interesting; if the bad version shows up, we think Tufts wins going away...we'll take the middle ground and say that the Mules keep this one interesting for a while but Tufts has way too many dudes to lose to the hot and cold Mules.

Tufts 35 Colby 17
Point Spread: Tufts -14
Weather: Mostly cloudy. High of 61.

Amwurst College at Bowdoin College: Amwurst NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense 10/Total Defense 5; Bowdoin NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense 3/Total Defense 3...Lord Mammoths coming off their worst loss of the year face a Bowdoin team well rested coming off a bye week... Look for Polar defenders Price and Jacobs to feast on the Amwurst o-line; Bowdoin is 2nd in the NESCSAC in sacks...Polars need to play more disciplined and avoid stupid penalties and turnovers...the Lord Mammoths are riding a three game losing streak...these two teams have split their last two meetings...FY RB Luke Watson has seen more playing time for the Polars as of late and is especially effective catching balls out of the back field; we'd like to see him getting more playing time...LM offense is still worst in the NESCAC in terms of scoring and yards...Defense leads the NESCAC in passing defense...Amhurst needs to figure out the QB situation which is just a mess...KTV for Amwurst: Stop the Boel led Bowdoin passing attack...Keep the game low scoring (only two LM wins, they scored 17 points in each game-their high-water marks in terms of scoring this year)...generate some/any offense...KTV for Bowdoin: Score 17 points or more and you win...continue to make the big plays on offense and defense...Improve 3rd down conversion percentage (8th in the NESCAC)...Players to watch: LB Luke Harmon (AMH),  LB Andy Skirzenski (AMH), QB Andrew Boel (BOW), WR Colton Fahey (BOW), RB Luke Watson (BOW), LB Max Jacobs (BOW), LB Koy Price (BOW)...Overview: Bowdoin has some great individual players and are trying to have a winning season for the first time since 2005...this Polars squad is better than we have seen in memory and the Lord Mammoths are just not good...After an unexpected week off and the LMs coming off a crushing defeat against rival Wesleyan, we like the Polars to get the W in convincing fashion. 

Bowdoin 27 Amwurst 10
Point Spread: Bowdoin -10
Weather: Mostly cloudy. High of 56.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Hartford State College: UBates NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 9/Total Defense: 10; Hartford State NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 1/Total Defense: 1...UBates still looking for their first win of the year, more likely in one of the next two games as they face the Conts and the Ephs the two weeks...UBates last beat the Roosters in 1979 (26 straight losses) and have only won 7 of their 47 all-time meetings...Most of the recent games have been blow-outs in Hartford State's favor, last year being no exception as HS won 63-14 on the road ...FY QB Seneca Moore is seeing more playing time for UBates and could be a factor in this game...The Roosters are 1st in scoring in the NESCAC and UBates is last scoring defense; could spell for a long day in the Coop for the Kitties...only 3 more games for the 13 graduate student starters for the Roosters...KTV for UBates: Need to control the clock and generate long drives...avoid turnovers (UBates is last in turnover ratio in the League)...need to keep playing QB Moore, he's the future for the Kitties...UBates will be looking for some revenge after last year's 63-14 loss at UBates...KTV for Hartford State: Need to avoid the upset to set-up an important game at Wes in week #9...run the ball with their first ranked run offense against the last ranked Kitties run defense...don't get upset like Tufts and Wes has this year...Players to watch: QB Seneca Moore (UB), WR Sergio Beltran (UB), LB Matt Juneau (UB), RB Tyler DiNapoli (HS), WR Sean Clapp (HS), K Matthew Jumes (HS),...Overview: This is clearly a rebuilding year for UBates as they start to look to 2024 and beyond...we think UBates will get at least one win this year, but not this week at Hartford State.

Hartford State 48 UBates 14
Point Spread: Hartford State -28
Weather: Mostly cloudy. High of 61.

Wesleyan University at Williams College: Wesleyan NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense 5/Total Defense 4; Williams NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense 6/Total Defense 8...Wesleyan has had the Ephs number in the last decade having won 8 of the last 9 meetings...Wes, with a win, has a chance to win their third outright Little 3 in 4 years and their first back-to-back titles since 1969/1970...Wesleyan leads the NESCAC with 5 defensive TDs...Eph offense has sputtered since starting TB Mario Fischetti went down...Wesleyan's strength has been passing the ball, something the Ephs do not particularly defend well...Ephs are by far the worst team in the NESCAC on third down...Williams are second to last in scoring in the NESCAC...KTV for Wesleyan: Throw early and often on the Eph secondary...score another defensive TD or two...can't look beyond this game to the Roosters in the Turducken Bowl next week in Middletown...KTV for Williams: Get one of their back-up running backs going...stop Candido, Wilson & Co...get pressure on the Wes QB...Players to watch: QB Niko Candido (WES), WR Chase Wilson (WES), LB Jake Edwards (WES), DB Dylan Connors (WES), Wesley Abraham (WES), QB Owen McHugh (WIL), DE Cameron Smith (WIL), DB Justice McGrail (WIL)...Overview: Wes has had good recent success in Williamstown....Wes comes in on a roll and always seems to get up for games against Coach Dice's alma matter...we like Wes to celebrate the Little 3 by singing the Wes Fight Song on the Farley-Lamb 50-yard line around 4 PM.   

Wesleyan 28 Williams 10 
Point Spread: Wesleyan -7
Weather: Considerable cloudiness. High of 56.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Middlebury College at Hamilton College: Middlebury NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 4/Total Defense: 7; Hamilton NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 7/Total Defense: 9...Our GOTW features our #1 ranked team, the Middlebury Panthers, facing the hottest team in the NESCAC, the Hamilton Alexander Hamilton's...A week ago, this looked like an easy, cake walk win for MID on the way to their week 9 showdown with Tufts; now this game looks a lot more interesting as Hamilton tries to win their third straight game...MID has won the last 26 meetings between these two teams....The Pants need to focus on the task on hand and can't look beyond this game as they try to set-up a week 9 game for a shot at the League title...HAM coming off an emotional win over the highly ranked Jumbo's...MID passes the ball well (#2 in the NESCAC), Hamilton is last in the NESCAC in defending the pass and has given up the most passing TDs (15)...HAM runs the ball well (4th in the NESCAC in rushing)...Cole Kennon has been good at times, throwing 13 TD passes but leads the league in interceptions...MID features two very good receivers in Patrick Jamin and Donovan Wood...Tomas Kenary and Dave Filias are among the top 3 in the league in TFL and sacks...Finn Muldoon and John McCool are amongst the top 5 in tackles... A win for Middlebury and they are in control for the NESCAC title in HCOF Mandigo's first year as HCOF...The Pants have been impressive, with a very good passing attack and a "bend but don't break" defense that is second in the league in points allowed...Converted QB Matt Banbury has given HAM a lift at TB...KTV for Middlebury: Kennon needs to avoid the INT...get some semblance of a running game going to keep HAM honest...stop the HAM running game to force them to pass...don't look beyond this game...Keys to Victory ("KTV") for Hamilton: Play turnover free, run the ball well and control the clock via the run... Players to watch: QB Cole Kennon (MID), DB Finn Muldoon (MID), WR Patrick Jamin (MID), DT Dave Filias (MID), TB Matt Banbury (HAM), QB Luke Kurzum (HAM)...Overview: Clock strikes midnight for the Alexander Hamilton's....HAM gives the Pants a scare and keeps it close for a while but the Pants pass rush overwhelms the HAM o-line.

Middlebury 27 Hamilton 17
Point Spread: Middlebury -10
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Cloudy. High of 52.

NESCACMAN's Picks:
2023 Season: 24-8
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 316-101 (.758 winning percentage)

Follow us on Twitter @realnescacman

[Nescacman]

#beatwilliams #rollcards

https://x.com/realnescacman/status/1720634904742887564?s=46&t=l0iFgKMTkCftYtu_0aEMkg

[BigKat]

What a terrible slate of games . Guess we need some appetizers before next week's main course .

[westcoastnescac]

Any day in the nescac is a great day. only got 9 weeks for a reason Bigkat, any given saturday

[nescac1]

Excellent first half by the Ephs.  Special teams, at times a big issue this year, came up huge with a blocked punt, a recovered fumble on a kickoff return, tremendous punting, and a clean kicking game.  The pass rush has been awesome and seems to be coming from everywhere, all over Candido with five sacks involving six different guys.  Williams playing a smaller, quicker group up front than it typically does and it's been paying dividends, including with the huge safety early in the game.  Can't do much better than -25 yards rushing in a half!  The Eph offense has been hit-or-miss, man they miss Fischetti out there, but McHugh has been mostly solid, making big plays on the ground and connecting for the second straight game on an absolutely beautiful deep pass to big FY WR Brady Stahelski.  Hopefully that connection continues to pay dividends over the next three years. 

I'm not sure if the Ephs were not happy with the performance against Trinity or it's just that a bunch of guys are injured, but there are some new faces out there for the Ephs on both sides of the ball, including converted QB Jack Wallace at S and Holden Gering, playing iron man football as a starting CB while still seeing the on offense and special teams (!). 

For Wesleyan, the defense has come up big other than the one deep TD play, despite being put in terrible position the entire half, holding Williams to 3 points each on two first-and-goals; otherwise, this game would be out of hand. Candido really has a cannon and Wesleyan has good receivers who made some excellent plays, including a stellar catch by FY Lidstrom on basically a hail mary to set up the Wesleyan TD, but for the Cards to come back the offensive line will have to give him more time, that's where Wesleyan really struggled in the first half.  If he has time Wesleyan can definitely burn the Ephs down the field. 

[nescac1]

Total collapse in the fourth quarter by Williams.  The offense did nothing all half and put the defense in bad spot after bad spot.  The defense really was heroic but they could only hold Wesleyan for so long, especially when every time they were in the vicinity of a Wesleyan receiver they were called for pass interference.  And they also hurt themselves with some bad, totally needless personal foul penalties.  Two brutal late turnovers by the Ephs' offense (one on an ill-advised play call) and that was it. 

Kudos to Candido who played a fantastic game despite getting hit again and again by the Ephs' defensive front, which was tremendous.  He completed some very tough passes just as he got hit.  Ephs just don't have the weapons on offense right now.  Brutal one. 

[Nescacman]

Total collapse in the fourth quarter by Williams.  The offense did nothing all half and put the defense in bad spot after bad spot.  The defense really was heroic but they could only hold Wesleyan for so long, especially when every time they were in the vicinity of a Wesleyan receiver they were called for pass interference.  And they also hurt themselves with some bad, totally needless personal foul penalties.  Two brutal late turnovers by the Ephs' offense (one on an ill-advised play call) and that was it. 

Kudos to Candido who played a fantastic game despite getting hit again and again by the Ephs' defensive front, which was tremendous.  He completed some very tough passes just as he got hit.  Ephs just don't have the weapons on offense right now.  Brutal one.

nescac1, Spring et al...Sorry we missed you in #beatwilliamstown yesterday...had a nice time hanging with Coach Farley and his lovely wife, Susan. Really great people. Thought we might see you post game at the Purple Pub.

Onto the game, much more later but great comeback by the Cards and really good job by Wes DC Sheeks and our terrific defensive student-athletes keeping us in the game, shutting down the young Ephs offense in the second half, and creating key turnovers that gave Wes the opportunity to win the game late in the 4th quarter. Some real head scratching play calls by the Ephs and some stupid penalties didn't hurt the cause. Wonder if this loss now makes the "worst loss" list for the Ephs? Certainly takes a bit out of the sting for 1982 for us.

And for those of you that haven't see the highlights from the 4th quarter, courtesy of the Ephs home feed, here you go:

https://x.com/wes_athletics/status/1721024974410887415?s=61&t=iUdAuRfh_FBxr6PUc6Q-fA     

#rollcards

[SpringSt7]

Only thing keeping that out of an all-time worst loss list is the lack of championship implications, but it certainly stung. Williams did such a good job all day with make shift secondary of keeping things in front of them while simultaneously flushing Candido from the pocket and forcing him to rush, but they just couldn't keep the offense on the field long enough to give the defense a rest or any breathing room. With all of that being said, they still had a chance at the end if not for some penalties and turnovers.

This Williams season would be a lot less frustrating if they were so devoid of talent that they seemed incapable of winning, but they have enough pieces all over to at least hang around for quarters and halves at a time. Hopefully with some seasoning, next year will look a lot different. But it isn't happening this year.

[Nescacman]

Only thing keeping that out of an all-time worst loss list is the lack of championship implications, but it certainly stung. Williams did such a good job all day with make shift secondary of keeping things in front of them while simultaneously flushing Candido from the pocket and forcing him to rush, but they just couldn't keep the offense on the field long enough to give the defense a rest or any breathing room. With all of that being said, they still had a chance at the end if not for some penalties and turnovers.

This Williams season would be a lot less frustrating if they were so devoid of talent that they seemed incapable of winning, but they have enough pieces all over to at least hang around for quarters and halves at a time. Hopefully with some seasoning, next year will look a lot different. But it isn't happening this year.

We tend to agree with you. McHugh showed some glimmers of hope at QB, despite some bad throws and crucial turnovers late. He ran the ball well. He just needs some talent around him and we think he could be a winner. Gering was terrific doing his best Travis Hunter imitation making plays on offense at WR and on defense as a DB. He actually led the Ephs in tackles, had a pick and broke up 4 passes. Great effort by him. We wonder if he continues to play both ways the next three years or if he was just doing it out of necessity due to injuries. He's definitely a talent.

[nescac1]

I do think Williams has a returning core of skills guys with some real potential, they were just extremely young at those positions this year.  McHugh has to improve some of his decision-making but he has shown that with some seasoning he can be a good starting QB -- he certainly is a stellar overall athlete with plenty of upside.  Also in the mix will be another QB recruit who is supposedly quite good who missed this season with an injury, so hopefully some quality depth at the position.  Oris has improved and developed into a quality back-up TB (overtaxed at his size as a fill-in starter), and next year the Ephs could be loaded at RB if Fischetti can just stay healthy, plus Oris and adding Jon Marvan to the mix, who was a major recruit and has also missed the entire year with injury and hopefully give the Ephs that power back they REALLY need to thrive.

WR has further to go but Gering and Stahelski have each made some plays here and there -- both need to become more consistently reliable and improve their chemistry with McHugh, but since all three are frosh there is certainly some hope there; certainly there is some talent there, but it woudl sure help to add one true star to the receiving core in the next recruiting class.  I also think Williams can get more out of the TE unit with soph Sam Jaffee and big FY Will Baker starting to see more action, two guys who can hopefully develop into desperately needed big targets over the middle.  Williams' receivers really need to improve at making the tough catches in traffic or snagging balls that aren't perfectly thrown.  Against Bowdoin, Tufts, Wesleyan, Midd, Trinity, you just see the difference, the receivers simply make plays and beat DBs to tough balls (in addition to being more adept at getting open).  I'm hoping the young Eph receivers can get bigger, stronger, tougher, and more aggressive going up for the really difficult catches, and also polish the route running over time.  Again, there are no guarantees but this is at least an extremely green skill position group and all of them are back and most of them are back for several years at least.  And Fischetti alone is a major difference-maker. 

OL is another story, Williams is starting three seniors on the line (though one does have eligbility if he seeks to return) and Freeman is by far their best lineman.  They will need some rising sophs to really step up at that position. 

As for defense, the Ephs have been excellent at rushing the passer all year.  There are some talented, fast guys in the front seven and most of them are back next year.  Whether it's schemes or personnel, though, coverage deep down the field has killed the Ephs for, really, the last two years.  Too many wide open receivers and too many pass interference and defensive holding calls.  They just have to clean that up going forward.  For two years in a row loads of guys have cycled in and out of those positions so clearly the coaches are looking for some answers. 

[Charlie]

I do think Williams has a returning core of skills guys with some real potential, they were just extremely young at those positions this year.  McHugh has to improve some of his decision-making but he has shown that with some seasoning he can be a good starting QB -- he certainly is a stellar overall athlete with plenty of upside.  Also in the mix will be another QB recruit who is supposedly quite good who missed this season with an injury, so hopefully some quality depth at the position.  Oris has improved and developed into a quality back-up TB (overtaxed at his size as a fill-in starter), and next year the Ephs could be loaded at RB if Fischetti can just stay healthy, plus Oris and adding Jon Marvan to the mix, who was a major recruit and has also missed the entire year with injury and hopefully give the Ephs that power back they REALLY need to thrive.

WR has further to go but Gering and Stahelski have each made some plays here and there -- both need to become more consistently reliable and improve their chemistry with McHugh, but since all three are frosh there is certainly some hope there; certainly there is some talent there, but it woudl sure help to add one true star to the receiving core in the next recruiting class.  I also think Williams can get more out of the TE unit with soph Sam Jaffee and big FY Will Baker starting to see more action, two guys who can hopefully develop into desperately needed big targets over the middle.  Williams' receivers really need to improve at making the tough catches in traffic or snagging balls that aren't perfectly thrown.  Against Bowdoin, Tufts, Wesleyan, Midd, Trinity, you just see the difference, the receivers simply make plays and beat DBs to tough balls (in addition to being more adept at getting open).  I'm hoping the young Eph receivers can get bigger, stronger, tougher, and more aggressive going up for the really difficult catches, and also polish the route running over time.  Again, there are no guarantees but this is at least an extremely green skill position group and all of them are back and most of them are back for several years at least.  And Fischetti alone is a major difference-maker. 

OL is another story, Williams is starting three seniors on the line (though one does have eligbility if he seeks to return) and Freeman is by far their best lineman.  They will need some rising sophs to really step up at that position. 

As for defense, the Ephs have been excellent at rushing the passer all year.  There are some talented, fast guys in the front seven and most of them are back next year.  Whether it's schemes or personnel, though, coverage deep down the field has killed the Ephs for, really, the last two years.  Too many wide open receivers and too many pass interference and defensive holding calls.  They just have to clean that up going forward.  For two years in a row loads of guys have cycled in and out of those positions so clearly the coaches are looking for some answers.

I think the Ephs have great deal of talent needs and OL next year going to be a big problem. RB position seems like Medical unit. Frishetti always hurt and Marvan has been injured throughout his career. So This will be a need in recruiting as well. Williams cannot afford anymore busts in recruiting they have found there QB and now need to work on skilled positions and Defensive and Offensive line help.

[BigKat]

The Littlest pillow fight game should be something else this year. Amherst showed some signs of offensive life last week so would make them a slight favorite. New Ephs unis/helmets are awful. Looks like the faux LSU of Western Mass.

[Nescacman]

The Littlest pillow fight game should be something else this year. Amherst showed some signs of offensive life last week so would make them a slight favorite. New Ephs unis/helmets are awful. Looks like the faux LSU of Western Mass.

Could not agree more on the new look Ephs, especially the helmets. Yellow...really???

We're not ready to make our pick on the Little 3 consolidation game yet. Will certainly not gather many eyeballs given this week's slate of games as the top 4 in the NESCAC all face each other.

[GroundandPound]

Are any NESCAC football fans, besides Trinity fans, not rooting for Wesleyan this coming Saturday?
I suspect we are all Wesleyan fans this Saturday, except those on this board who are Trinity fans.

[The Mole]

D3 Football Podcast mentions the Little 3 victory around 29:30. Shout out to QB Niko Candido for career high of passing yards (365) and being responsible for 28/30 points in the Williams game Saturday. Golden Helmet for him this week by New England Football Writers for all of D2 and D3.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d3football-com-d3football-com-around-the-nation-podcast/id567343572?i=1000633799396