FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[muleshoe]

Taking a step away from the Nescacman/Trin9-0 beef for a moment, I want to talk about an aspect of the Williams team that, in my opinion, has played a massive role in their 2-0 start. Obviously, the QB play and stout defense is always critical when examining a team's current and potential success, but their special teams unit has been sensational too. In their opening game against Hamilton, their punt and kickoff unit had some great, field changing plays. A massive hit by #36 Beaubien on punt really set the tone for the rest of the game. Watching the Williams team celebrate this hit, and the Hamilton squad look defeated, it seemed to me that this play by Beaubien, albeit rather minor, played a major role in the overall game. Their kicker, Ivan Shuran, has been lights out on kickoffs and field goals/PAT. Additionally, Leonardo Maiuolo (Williams Punter) is second in punting average, something that is - obviously - crucial in flipping the field and changing momentum. I was worried about how they were going to replace their previous punter, Tim Brown (widely known for being a penalty drawing magician), but it seems that Maiuolo has suppressed any of my further doubts.

Didn't see the Hamilton game, but they muffed a punt against Colby where the down was replayed for an "inadvertent whistle" and got bamboozled by a surprise onsides kick. I wouldn't say special teams won them the game last week... From what I saw last week, Williams will go as far as McHugh takes them. He's extremely elusive and makes good decisions with the football.

[nescac1]

I would actually say that most aspects of special teams has GENERALLY been excellent for Williams.  Punting, kicking, and punt and kick coverage have been consistently stellar so far.  But yes, those two huge plays - one of which they caught a big break on, and one of which was perfectly executed by Colby and definitely caught Williams off guard - could have determined the outcome of that game.  And Colby was almost successful on a second onside kick.  I imagine Williams will work on that aspect of special teams in particular over the course of this week ...

On another note, I was curious, so I watched the highlights vs. Hamilton and Colby (the latter is available on Willinet) which featured between them probably a dozen Williams offensive plays. On those plays, the left guard fought hard through the end of every single play, only missed one ultimately inconsequential block, and on every other play absolutely stuck his man, including two highlight plays, a pancake on the very first featured play vs. Colby and a running play vs. Hamilton during which he drove his man probably five yards down the field.  Now of course these are only the highlights, and I can't pretend I paid any attention to any particular player on the offensive line when watching the games, but at least based on that sampling of plays, the complaints seem pretty thin. 

The other things that popped on those highlights in terms of defense, Ethan Scott is (like last year) absolutely explosive with his burst, I'm sure every offensive coordinator will focus on getting him blocked as he is a terror coming off the edge, Cam Smith is headed for another all-league year at the rate he's playing, and Will Gale in very limited action really does seem to be a hoss, extremely strong in the middle of the line; in high school he was named the top offensive lineman in the state of Maine. Williams definitely needs the front seven to play very well to hang with Trinity, and  hope to stick with the superior Trinity receiving corps, better than they did against Colby. But realistically the best pass defense will have to come from the pass rush, as Trinity does not seem to be missing a beat in the passing game so far despite the QB change from last year. 

[Nescacman]

2024 Week 3 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome to Week 3 in the NESCAC "in the league where they pay to play". After going 5-0 with our picks last week, we are off to one of our best starts ever picking NESCAC winners.

Our Game of the Week features Hartford State hosting the Ephs in the Coop in a battle of 2-0 teams. Other games that we will be watching are Tufts hosting the Lord Mammoths in Medford and Middlebury going for their second win in a row against Colby in Vermont.

Amherst College at Tufts University
Amherst NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 8/Total Defense: 1
Tufts NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 1/Total Defense: 4
#1 offense (Tufts) against the #1 defense (Amherst). Tufts looking for a rebound against another good defensive team in the Lord Mammoths. The Jumbo's will look to repeat their offensive and defensive performance of a year ago against the Lord Mammoths. Tufts has not won back-to-back games against Amherst since 2003/2004 and has not beaten the Lord Mammoths in Medford since 2007. On the positive side for Tufts, they are 3-0 the week after a loss the last 2 years. Tufts QB Michael Berlutti is still looking for his first TD pass of 2024. We think he gets at least one this week. On the negative side for Tufts, too many turnovers and the special teams, other than their place kicker, must be better. They miss RB Reece and WR Richardson from last year's squad. Only 2 of 8 chances in the red zone have resulted in TDs. Meanwhile, same old story that we have seen the last several years at Amherst...good defense and bad offense. Defense has only given up 2 TDs in two games. Despite the LMs 2-0 record thus far in 2024 (first 2-0 start for them since 2019), keep in mind that they achieved that against two of the weaker teams in the NESCAC. A positive for the Lord Mammoths is that new quarterback, Mason Morrow, is an improvement and is playing well.  Thus far, he has not been sacked which certainly helps.
Why Amherst will win: Good defense and better play at QB. Continued solid production from their new starting RBs.
Why Tufts will win: Best player on the field (Berlutti), play well at home, and they have bounced back from defeat well over the last couple of seasons.
KTV for Amherst: Contain the Tufts QB. Run the ball and control the clock to keep the ball out of the Tufts offense hands. Amherst defense will need to keep this game low scoring for them to have a shot at a win.
KTV for Tufts: Offense needs to establish a running game to set-up the Tufts passing game. Need to improve on special teams and avoid costly mistakes. Players to watch: QB Mason Morrow (AMH), WR Owen Gaydos (AMH), LB Luke Harmon (AMH), QB Michael Berlutti (TUF), WR Cade Moore (TUF), RB Christian Shapiro (TUF).
Game Summary: This will be a hard-fought game won in the trenches. Amherst is improved but their lack of a dynamic offense will hurt them on the road at Tufts. Tufts plays well at home, and we think they win a relatively close game to get to 2-1 and stay in title contention.
 
Tufts 21 Amherst 10
Point Spread: Tufts -10
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Partly sunny. High of 69.

Colby College at Middlebury College
Colby NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 6/Total Defense: 7
Middlebury NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 5/Total Defense: 8
Middlebury has played 4 halves of football this year and only one of them have been good. Fortunately, they did enough in the 2nd half of last week's game against Bowdoin to get their first win. Colby should be another good test for the defending NESCAC champions. Middlebury's rushing defense will need to be better as they sit at 9th in the NESCAC. Last week the Mules could have come away with the win at home against the Ephs. Colby will need to be better on offense and in pass coverage (9th in the NESCAC) to get the win.
Why Colby will win: Good defense and they are getting better QB play.
Why Middlebury will win: Carry over momentum from Win #1 and strong 2nd half vs. Bowdoin. Home field advantage.
KTV for Colby: Offense must be better and score TDs. On defense, they need to force turnovers.
KTV for Middlebury: Star players need to step up as they did against Bowdoin. Stop the Colby passing attack.
Players to watch: QB Miles Drake (COL), WR Duke Ferrara (COL), RB Keon Smart. (COL), LB Julian Young (COL), QB Brian Moran (MID), WR Patrick Jamin (MID), DL Tomas Kenary (MID), DT Dave Filias (MID), DB Rocco Stolla (MID).
Game Summary: Middlebury plays well at home having only lost once in HCOF Mandigo's tenure. This game is one that they must win to stay in the hunt for the NESCAC title. We expect a close, relatively low scoring game with the Pants coming out on top.

Middlebury 21 Colby 14
Point Spread: Middlebury -7
Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 73.

Hamilton College at Bowdoin College
Hamilton NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 9/Total Defense: 10
Bowdoin NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 7/Total Defense: 9
Two 0-2 teams looking for their first win at Bowdoin's homecoming. Unlike Middlebury, Bowdoin has played well in 3 of their 4 quarters of football thus far in 2024. Unfortunately, they have nothing to show for it. The Polars defense was effective in week 1 and shut down Middlebury in the first half of last week's game. Unfortunately, the sky came crashing down on them as they allowed 32 unanswered points to Middlebury. QB Robbie Long is second in the NESCAC in rushing. Senior DL Aidan Reidy has been strong for the Polars on defense (2 sacks and 4.5 TFL). On the other side of the field, Hamilton has thus far been one of the weaker teams in the conference again in 2024 despite having one of the best receivers in the league in Chester Boynton. This is the first of four tough games in a row for the Conts.
Why Hamilton will win: Hamilton runs the ball effectively allowing QB Kurzum to find Boynton down the field and the control the clock.
Why Bowdoin will win: Long bus trip for Hamilton and Bowdoin has more talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Playing at Whittier helps.
KTV for Hamilton: Generate some offense behind QB Luke Kurzum. Contain the dual headed Bowdoin QB. Stop the run to force Bowdoin to throw, which has been a challenge for them thus far this year. Give their QB more time to throw. Run the ball well for a change.
KTV for Bowdoin: More balanced offense. Avoid turnovers. Play a complete game. Players to watch: QB Luke Kurzum (HAM), WR Chester Boynton (HAM), DB Kyle Bratcher (HAM), LB Koy Price (BOW), QB Robbie Long (BOW).
Game Summary: Very important game for both teams to get their first win of 2024. We think Bowdoin is more motivated than Hamilton and has the edge in Brunswick.

Bowdoin 28 Hamilton 14
Point Spread: Bowdoin -10
Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 69.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Wesleyan University
UBates NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 10/Total Defense: 3
Wesleyan NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 2/Total Defense: 6.
This once sleepy match-up has become a great rivalry since Wes grad, former QB, and coach Matt Coyne became head man at UBates. The Kitties, starting mostly freshman and sophomores (12 including 2 on the offensive line) and running a new offense, have struggled thus far in 2024. However, the defense is showing signs of dramatic improvement (23.5 ppg in 2024 vs. 34.7 ppg in 2023) while the offense has continued to struggle. In particular, the UBates passing game (last in the NESCAC) has had its challenges completing only 12 passes all year and throwing 6 interceptions. Although they have played 3 QBs thus far in 2024, we expect to see a lot of Soph signal caller Seneca Moore in this one. The running game has been improved led by Super Soph RB Ryan Lynskey, who leads the NESCAC in rushing through the first two weeks of the season. Meanwhile, Wesleyan is off to a fast start winning their first two game against two of the better teams in the conference. They have beaten UBates 17 straight times dating back to 2005, haven't lost to UBates at home since 1981, and the Cards play very well at home on the Andrus turf. Wesleyan's offensive line continues to do an excellent job of opening holes to run the ball effectively (Wes leads the NESCAC in rushing). Wes WR Chase Wilson continues to excel leading the NESCAC in receiving yards through 2 games. The Cardinal defense, led by their front 7, will need to stop the UBates ground game. The defense has been very good thus far in 2024 holding their opponents to 19% on 3rd downs, they lead the league in sacks (10), and have recovered 5 fumbles. The challenge for Wesleyan is to not look past UBates and take them lightly.
Why UBates will win: The Kitties run the ball effectively and show some semblance of a passing game. Wesleyan takes the Frisky Kitties lightly and look past them leading to an upset.
Why Wesleyan will win: Wesleyan has had UBates number for years, they play well at home, and they have superior talent.
KTV for UBates: Run Ryan, run! Avoid costly turnovers. Stop big Wesleyan plays.
KTV for Wesleyan: Run the ball to set up the pass. Stop the UBates triple option running attack, which is very tough to simulate in practice. Wes leads the NESCAC in sacks so we expect them to get to the QB when the Kitties decide to throw, which has not been often in 2024.
Players to watch: QB Colton Bosselait (UB), QB Seneca Moore (UB), RB Ryan Lynskey (UB), LB Ryan Rozich (UB), QB Niko Candido (WES), WR Chase Wilson (WES), LB Ben Carbeau (WES), DB Dylan Connors (WES), DB Wesley Abraham (WES), DB Nick Donatio (WES). 
Game Summary: UBates is improved but not enough to keep up with the Cards. We think they are still a year away. Wes O-line will need to continue to be good. We expect this game to be somewhat competitive for a while, but Wesleyan's superior talent and depth will allow them to pull away and get their third win of 2024. 

Wesleyan 31 UBates 10
Point Spread: Wesleyan -17
Weather: Cloudy. High of 73.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Williams College at Hartford State College
Williams NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 3/Total Defense: 5
Hartford State NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 4/Total Defense: 2
And the Hartford State train keeps on rolling. Tougher test for the Bantams this week as they face the upstart Ephs in the Coop. Our game of the week features 2-0 teams facing off. Historically, the Ephs have played the Bantams tough. Although the Ephs are improved this year, we expect a close game but a Bantam victory. Ephs second year QB Owen McHugh has been excellent completing over 75% of his passes and throwing 6 TDs and no INTs. Tougher test for the Ephs this week as they barely held on to beat Colby last week. On the Hartford State side of the ball, they need to continue to pound the rock to set up the pass. QB Zander Zembrowski has picked up where Spencer Fetter left off for the Bants and has been very good. The HS defense has been good yielding only 7 points per game thus far in 2024. One negative for the Bants, they are last in the NESCAC in penalties.
Why Williams will win: Williams continues to avoid turnovers and creates a few Bantam turnovers. If they can jump out to a quick lead, watch out. 
Why Hartford State will win: They play very well at the friendly confines of the Coop and their two-headed monster at RB wears down the Eph defense.
KTV for Williams: McHugh continues to mature. Run the ball well. Put pressure on the new Bantam QB.
KTV for Hartford State: Run the ball effectively. Put pressure on McHugh. Avoid penalties.
Players to watch: QB Owen McHugh (WIL), LB Luke Mangini (WIL), RB Mario Fischetti (WIL), WR/DB Holden Gering (WIL), QB Zander Zembrowski (HS), RB Tyler Dinapoli (HS), RB Jack Tosone (HS), WR Sean Clapp (HS)
Game Summary: We expect a completive game with Hartford State getting the win at home.

Hartford State 28 Williams 17
Point Spread: Hartford State -10
Weather: Cloudy. High of 73.

Good luck to all the student-athletes and coaches this Saturday!

NESCACMAN's Picks:
2024 Season: 9-1
2023 Season: 31-14
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0 (COVID)
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 332-108 (.755 winning percentage)

**********

Follow NESCACMAN on X (aka Twitter) @realnescacman

**********

Introducing....

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast

Episode 3 featuring Williams College Head Football Coach Mark Raymond and current University of New Hampshire and former Wesleyan WR Logan Tomlinson available now! Please join us for our objective weekly game analysis, previews, picks, and more!

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[MikeJones50]

2024 Week 3 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome to Week 3 in the NESCAC "in the league where they pay to play". After going 5-0 with our picks last week, we are off to one of our best starts ever picking NESCAC winners.

Our Game of the Week features Hartford State hosting the Ephs in the Coop in a battle of 2-0 teams. Other games that we will be watching are Tufts hosting the Lord Mammoths in Medford and Middlebury going for their second win in a row against Colby in Vermont.

Amherst College at Tufts University
Amherst NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 8/Total Defense: 1
Tufts NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 1/Total Defense: 4
#1 offense (Tufts) against the #1 defense (Amherst). Tufts looking for a rebound against another good defensive team in the Lord Mammoths. The Jumbo's will look to repeat their offensive and defensive performance of a year ago against the Lord Mammoths. Tufts has not won back-to-back games against Amherst since 2003/2004 and has not beaten the Lord Mammoths in Medford since 2007. On the positive side for Tufts, they are 3-0 the week after a loss the last 2 years. Tufts QB Michael Berlutti is still looking for his first TD pass of 2024. We think he gets at least one this week. On the negative side for Tufts, too many turnovers and the special teams, other than their place kicker, must be better. They miss RB Reece and WR Richardson from last year's squad. Only 2 of 8 chances in the red zone have resulted in TDs. Meanwhile, same old story that we have seen the last several years at Amherst...good defense and bad offense. Defense has only given up 2 TDs in two games. Despite the LMs 2-0 record thus far in 2024 (first 2-0 start for them since 2019), keep in mind that they achieved that against two of the weaker teams in the NESCAC. A positive for the Lord Mammoths is that new quarterback, Mason Morrow, is an improvement and is playing well.  Thus far, he has not been sacked which certainly helps.
Why Amherst will win: Good defense and better play at QB. Continued solid production from their new starting RBs.
Why Tufts will win: Best player on the field (Berlutti), play well at home, and they have bounced back from defeat well over the last couple of seasons.
KTV for Amherst: Contain the Tufts QB. Run the ball and control the clock to keep the ball out of the Tufts offense hands. Amherst defense will need to keep this game low scoring for them to have a shot at a win.
KTV for Tufts: Offense needs to establish a running game to set-up the Tufts passing game. Need to improve on special teams and avoid costly mistakes. Players to watch: QB Mason Morrow (AMH), WR Owen Gaydos (AMH), LB Luke Harmon (AMH), QB Michael Berlutti (TUF), WR Cade Moore (TUF), RB Christian Shapiro (TUF).
Game Summary: This will be a hard-fought game won in the trenches. Amherst is improved but their lack of a dynamic offense will hurt them on the road at Tufts. Tufts plays well at home, and we think they win a relatively close game to get to 2-1 and stay in title contention.
 
Tufts 21 Amherst 10
Point Spread: Tufts -10
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Partly sunny. High of 69.

Colby College at Middlebury College
Colby NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 6/Total Defense: 7
Middlebury NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 5/Total Defense: 8
Middlebury has played 4 halves of football this year and only one of them have been good. Fortunately, they did enough in the 2nd half of last week's game against Bowdoin to get their first win. Colby should be another good test for the defending NESCAC champions. Middlebury's rushing defense will need to be better as they sit at 9th in the NESCAC. Last week the Mules could have come away with the win at home against the Ephs. Colby will need to be better on offense and in pass coverage (9th in the NESCAC) to get the win.
Why Colby will win: Good defense and they are getting better QB play.
Why Middlebury will win: Carry over momentum from Win #1 and strong 2nd half vs. Bowdoin. Home field advantage.
KTV for Colby: Offense must be better and score TDs. On defense, they need to force turnovers.
KTV for Middlebury: Star players need to step up as they did against Bowdoin. Stop the Colby passing attack.
Players to watch: QB Miles Drake (COL), WR Duke Ferrara (COL), RB Keon Smart. (COL), LB Julian Young (COL), QB Brian Moran (MID), WR Patrick Jamin (MID), DL Tomas Kenary (MID), DT Dave Filias (MID), DB Rocco Stolla (MID).
Game Summary: Middlebury plays well at home having only lost once in HCOF Mandigo's tenure. This game is one that they must win to stay in the hunt for the NESCAC title. We expect a close, relatively low scoring game with the Pants coming out on top.

Middlebury 21 Colby 14
Point Spread: Middlebury -7
Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 73.

Hamilton College at Bowdoin College
Hamilton NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 9/Total Defense: 10
Bowdoin NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 7/Total Defense: 9
Two 0-2 teams looking for their first win at Bowdoin's homecoming. Unlike Middlebury, Bowdoin has played well in 3 of their 4 quarters of football thus far in 2024. Unfortunately, they have nothing to show for it. The Polars defense was effective in week 1 and shut down Middlebury in the first half of last week's game. Unfortunately, the sky came crashing down on them as they allowed 32 unanswered points to Middlebury. QB Robbie Long is second in the NESCAC in rushing. Senior DL Aidan Reidy has been strong for the Polars on defense (2 sacks and 4.5 TFL). On the other side of the field, Hamilton has thus far been one of the weaker teams in the conference again in 2024 despite having one of the best receivers in the league in Chester Boynton. This is the first of four tough games in a row for the Conts.
Why Hamilton will win: Hamilton runs the ball effectively allowing QB Kurzum to find Boynton down the field and the control the clock.
Why Bowdoin will win: Long bus trip for Hamilton and Bowdoin has more talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Playing at Whittier helps.
KTV for Hamilton: Generate some offense behind QB Luke Kurzum. Contain the dual headed Bowdoin QB. Stop the run to force Bowdoin to throw, which has been a challenge for them thus far this year. Give their QB more time to throw. Run the ball well for a change.
KTV for Bowdoin: More balanced offense. Avoid turnovers. Play a complete game. Players to watch: QB Luke Kurzum (HAM), WR Chester Boynton (HAM), DB Kyle Bratcher (HAM), LB Koy Price (BOW), QB Robbie Long (BOW).
Game Summary: Very important game for both teams to get their first win of 2024. We think Bowdoin is more motivated than Hamilton and has the edge in Brunswick.

Bowdoin 28 Hamilton 14
Point Spread: Bowdoin -10
Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 69.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Wesleyan University
UBates NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 10/Total Defense: 3
Wesleyan NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 2/Total Defense: 6.
This once sleepy match-up has become a great rivalry since Wes grad, former QB, and coach Matt Coyne became head man at UBates. The Kitties, starting mostly freshman and sophomores (12 including 2 on the offensive line) and running a new offense, have struggled thus far in 2024. However, the defense is showing signs of dramatic improvement (23.5 ppg in 2024 vs. 34.7 ppg in 2023) while the offense has continued to struggle. In particular, the UBates passing game (last in the NESCAC) has had its challenges completing only 12 passes all year and throwing 6 interceptions. Although they have played 3 QBs thus far in 2024, we expect to see a lot of Soph signal caller Seneca Moore in this one. The running game has been improved led by Super Soph RB Ryan Lynskey, who leads the NESCAC in rushing through the first two weeks of the season. Meanwhile, Wesleyan is off to a fast start winning their first two game against two of the better teams in the conference. They have beaten UBates 17 straight times dating back to 2005, haven't lost to UBates at home since 1981, and the Cards play very well at home on the Andrus turf. Wesleyan's offensive line continues to do an excellent job of opening holes to run the ball effectively (Wes leads the NESCAC in rushing). Wes WR Chase Wilson continues to excel leading the NESCAC in receiving yards through 2 games. The Cardinal defense, led by their front 7, will need to stop the UBates ground game. The defense has been very good thus far in 2024 holding their opponents to 19% on 3rd downs, they lead the league in sacks (10), and have recovered 5 fumbles. The challenge for Wesleyan is to not look past UBates and take them lightly.
Why UBates will win: The Kitties run the ball effectively and show some semblance of a passing game. Wesleyan takes the Frisky Kitties lightly and look past them leading to an upset.
Why Wesleyan will win: Wesleyan has had UBates number for years, they play well at home, and they have superior talent.
KTV for UBates: Run Ryan, run! Avoid costly turnovers. Stop big Wesleyan plays.
KTV for Wesleyan: Run the ball to set up the pass. Stop the UBates triple option running attack, which is very tough to simulate in practice. Wes leads the NESCAC in sacks so we expect them to get to the QB when the Kitties decide to throw, which has not been often in 2024.
Players to watch: QB Colton Bosselait (UB), QB Seneca Moore (UB), RB Ryan Lynskey (UB), LB Ryan Rozich (UB), QB Niko Candido (WES), WR Chase Wilson (WES), LB Ben Carbeau (WES), DB Dylan Connors (WES), DB Wesley Abraham (WES), DB Nick Donatio (WES). 
Game Summary: UBates is improved but not enough to keep up with the Cards. We think they are still a year away. Wes O-line will need to continue to be good. We expect this game to be somewhat competitive for a while, but Wesleyan's superior talent and depth will allow them to pull away and get their third win of 2024. 

Wesleyan 31 UBates 10
Point Spread: Wesleyan -17
Weather: Cloudy. High of 73.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Williams College at Hartford State College
Williams NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 3/Total Defense: 5
Hartford State NESCAC Ranks: Total Offense: 4/Total Defense: 2
And the Hartford State train keeps on rolling. Tougher test for the Bantams this week as they face the upstart Ephs in the Coop. Our game of the week features 2-0 teams facing off. Historically, the Ephs have played the Bantams tough. Although the Ephs are improved this year, we expect a close game but a Bantam victory. Ephs second year QB Owen McHugh has been excellent completing over 75% of his passes and throwing 6 TDs and no INTs. Tougher test for the Ephs this week as they barely held on to beat Colby last week. On the Hartford State side of the ball, they need to continue to pound the rock to set up the pass. QB Zander Zembrowski has picked up where Spencer Fetter left off for the Bants and has been very good. The HS defense has been good yielding only 7 points per game thus far in 2024. One negative for the Bants, they are last in the NESCAC in penalties.
Why Williams will win: Williams continues to avoid turnovers and creates a few Bantam turnovers. If they can jump out to a quick lead, watch out. 
Why Hartford State will win: They play very well at the friendly confines of the Coop and their two-headed monster at RB wears down the Eph defense.
KTV for Williams: McHugh continues to mature. Run the ball well. Put pressure on the new Bantam QB.
KTV for Hartford State: Run the ball effectively. Put pressure on McHugh. Avoid penalties.
Players to watch: QB Owen McHugh (WIL), LB Luke Mangini (WIL), RB Mario Fischetti (WIL), WR/DB Holden Gering (WIL), QB Zander Zembrowski (HS), RB Tyler Dinapoli (HS), RB Jack Tosone (HS), WR Sean Clapp (HS)
Game Summary: We expect a completive game with Hartford State getting the win at home.

Hartford State 28 Williams 17
Point Spread: Hartford State -10
Weather: Cloudy. High of 73.

Good luck to all the student-athletes and coaches this Saturday!

NESCACMAN's Picks:
2024 Season: 9-1
2023 Season: 31-14
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0 (COVID)
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 332-108 (.755 winning percentage)

**********

Follow NESCACMAN on X (aka Twitter) @realnescacman

**********

Introducing....

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast

Episode 3 featuring Williams College Head Football Coach Mark Raymond and current University of New Hampshire and former Wesleyan WR Logan Tomlinson available now! Please join us for our objective weekly game analysis, previews, picks, and more!

The podcast is available on YouTube and Spotify. Search for "9 Weeks NESCAC"...the first and only podcast of its kind.

If you have questions, feedback, ideas or are a player or a coach and would like to appear on our show, please email us at: 9weeksnescac@gmail.com

Follow us on X (aka Twitter): @nineweeksnescac
Follow us on Instagram: @nineweeksnescac
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I agree with all these picks besides one. I am taking the Ephs over the Bantams... think it will be a statement win for Williams with a strong game for McHugh and great defense and ST. Trinity is clearly a good squad but, to me, a massive problem is their lack of discipline. You mentioned the lead the NESCAC in penalties; those are the types of things that lose teams close games. Why are they so undisciplined...? Not sure, but that will eventually hurt them, and I suspect it will be tomorrow.

[EphsRock123]

I have to agree with MikeJones50 on this one. A spread of -10 for Trinity State is extremely aggressive. Last week against the Mules, the Ephs were able to score in every quarter, putting up 14 in the first half. The Bantams were only able to get the ball moving in 2 quarters against the Mules. The Bantams will have to show up in order to hang in their with the Ephs. Purple cows will be running the coop tomorrow.

[BantChamps]

I have to agree with MikeJones50 on this one. A spread of -10 for Trinity State is extremely aggressive. Last week against the Mules, the Ephs were able to score in every quarter, putting up 14 in the first half. The Bantams were only able to get the ball moving in 2 quarters against the Mules. The Bantams will have to show up in order to hang in their with the Ephs. Purple cows will be running the coop tomorrow.

Thank you EphsRock123.

[Back2BackBantam]

Bantams vs Williams will be decided by the Bantam D-Line and the Ephs O-Line. Whoever wins that battle will control the game and likely end up taking it. Jumes kicking for the Bantams I believe will end up being the difference here. I expect a low scoring affair and a gritty Bantam win.

[lumbercat]

Trin still the favorite this year but after seeing a couple of games this is not the best Trinity team in the last 6 or 7 years.......not saying the aren't very good but maybe not quite as dominant as recent teams.
That being said I don't think we will see Lord Jeffrey let anything happen like the Middlebury Snow Panthers coming into the Coop and embarrassing the Bants like that game last year, that was an upset for the ages- I cant imagine the Bantams will ever choke like that again.

I think the Blue and Old Gold are just a shade vulnerable this year but I'm hard pressed to find team that might knock them off, it won't be Middlebury.........the only team I can think of  remaining on their schedule is none other than the Red and Black.

[Nescacman]

While Hartford State may not be the juggernaut they have been the last several years (at least statisticaly), so it seems, it would be a mistake to underestimate them. Remember, they have a bunch of new starters on defense and a new QB. They are a good team that will only get better as the year rolls on. Take them lightly at your own peril...today should be a good test for them and the Ephs.

Good luck to everyone today and hoping for an injury free day.

NM

[nescac1]

Williams was looking fantastic early against Trinity but totally collapsed, going from a 14-0 lead to being down 28-14 very quickly.  Emblematic of the game was 12 men on the field (nullifying a 60 yard McHugh run, so really dispiriting) on the first play from scrimmage on offense for the Ephs in the second half, utterly inexcusable. It wasn't even like one guy was trying to run off the field, they sent a dozen dudes out in formation. 

McHugh has been excellent for Williams other than one very ill-advised pass which resulted in a pick six.  And the Ephs have run the ball very well for most of the game.  But Trinity has made some big stops and the difference in the game is that Williams simply can't cover the Trinity receivers, especially Nolan O'Brien, who has torched the Ephs all day.  Zebrowski has been very impressive, he keeps a lot of plays alive with his feet and is very precise in the short and medium range passing game.  Crazy that he was a four-year backup, he'd have started virtually anywhere.  Dinapoli has also been great for Trinity, their offense looks really good.  But also, Williams' pass defense, starting with the second half of the Colby game, has been a total disaster. Ephs are gonna have to figure some things out or teams are just going to throw the ball nearly every play all year long.   

[nescac1]

Wow, rough day for the Little 3.  Williams getting blown out by Trinity after looking great in the first quarter.  Amherst's multi-year offensive woes continue with one of the worst offensive stat lines in NESCAC history: 119 total yards from scrimmage, 2.7 yards per play, three interceptions, zero points.  I think you'd be hard pressed to find a worse statistical game than that!  And they didn't even have the worst day, Wesleyan's championship aspirations go down the drain with the annual totally head-scratching loss for the Cards. 

[Trin9-0]

Frisky kitties, indeed!

[jumpshot]

WesTech shocked by Bates who earned an instant classic for the Bobcats!

[Back2BackBantam]

Aaaaaaaaaand there is our yearly Wesleyan head scratching slip up. That is one of the more embarrassing losses I've seen in my entire life. No disrespect to the Cards and their fans, but sheesh. I couldn't even imagine.

[BantChamps]

The bottom line is that Wesleyan should and needs to beat Tufts. If they do then yes they should be one of top 3. If Tufts wins sadly unless other teams screw up this will be a disappointing season for Wesleyan. They need to beat Tufts its a must win. If they win only 2 teams stand in their way Trinity , Williams.

I feel this board gives Wesleyan way too much credit. To say that the rest of their schedule should not even be looked at is a bit ridiculous given their track record since covid. They have yet to have a season where they beat everyone they "should have".

2021 they lost to Amherst (The first year of their downhill decline)
2022 they lose to a 3-6 Bowdoin team
2023 they lose to an anemic Colby team and get trounced by Tufts

I feel this same rhetoric around the team gets built every year and they always fail to deliver. To why that is I do not know. Is it the player's losing their sense of urgency thinking they will coast against teams they are "supposed" to beat? Is it coaching not able to handle pressure? I am not one to make assumptions on it. But until they prove they can compete every week like all championship teams in the past have done I will not say they are contenders.

Like clockwork.